Computer Rankings and Post-season Discussion

08-09 Basketball General Rankings & Lists58

I don’t have the time to offer much analysis in this entry (that is best left to Vawolf82), but with five games left in the season now is a good time to see where NC State stands in the various computer rankings and how that projects for post-season play. There are four post-season tournaments now:

-NCAA Tournament (65 teams)
-NIT (32 teams)
-College Basketball Invitational (16 teams)
–College Insider.com tournament (16 teams)

Prior to last year, any major conference team with a .500 record was almost guaranteed to make the NIT. However, the NIT changed their selection process to be more similar to the NCAA tournament selection process. Any team that wins their conference regular season and doesn’t make the NCAA is guaranteed a spot in the NIT field. For the remaining at-large spots, they use the various computer rankings, strength of schedule, etc…and award bids based on which teams are the most deserving. Considering the coaches are trying to land as many as two more 2009 recruits that are immediate impact players, then winning does nothing but improve our chances even if that means making a run in a tournament no NC State fan enjoys discussing.

Last week was the first time we appeared in this NIT field projection as a #8 seed. They have us matched up against #1 seed on the road at South Carolina. A #8 seed creates a rather daunting task of needing three wins on the road to advance to the semi-finals held in NYC.

Current computer rankings:

–Sagarin: #72
–Kenpom: #69
–RPI: 88

Remaining games:
UVA
@Wake Forest
Maryland
BC
@Miami

Obviously, our chances of making the NCAA tournament are slim at best. It probably takes a 4-1 finish plus two wins in the ACC tournament to give us a good chance (20-12, 10-9 against the ACC with wins over WF in the regular season and likely UNC, Duke or Wake in the Friday ACC game). A 3-2 record and two wins likely puts us on the bubble as does 4-1 and a single win in the ACC Tournament. Just think how getting a single win over over Davidson, Florida, or Marquette and the win over Virginia Tech would have changed our NCAA outlook?

Regardless, winning 4 or 5 games the rest of the way is crucial to position ourselves in the NIT field with a good chance of advancing to NYC. A strong finish and a couple of wins in the NIT would make this season a success in my opinion.

08-09 Basketball General Rankings & Lists

58 Responses to Computer Rankings and Post-season Discussion

  1. Pack Leader 02/19/2009 at 1:42 PM #

    Just a rumor, but I have heard from several different people that the knicks have been to the last several practices to look at fells and costner. I also heard hey were only interested in fells at first but attended the Wake game and after watching BC drop 25 they gained more intrest in him. Hope its true for Fells, not for BC. I have said this before but i truly belivee it, if we bring costner back we can be a top 5 team in the acc.

  2. BJD95 02/19/2009 at 2:05 PM #

    It’s always a more successful year when you end up getting smacking in the first round of the NCAA than even to win the NIT. I agree with that. The NCAAT is the benchmark of success. The NIT is more about progress for a rebuilding team/program.

    But given the makeup of this team, the NIT is a reasonable level of accomplishment and hopefully they could make something positive out of the experience.

  3. Daily Update 02/19/2009 at 2:08 PM #

    Against VT, we lost because Horner(an 85% ft shooter) missed two free throws. Sidney was the reason we were in position to win that game, not the reason we lost it.

  4. Texpack 02/19/2009 at 2:15 PM #

    I am really glad that UVa has won back to back games before heading to Raleigh. I had been terrified that we would take them lightly and embarrass ourselves. Let’s hope for two more big beat downs for the Terps. I think they may well come to Raleigh as a team in total disarray. The Knicks are the only team in the NBA stupid enough to waste money to even fly down and watch Fells. I really hope Costner will play one more year for us. He could be a big difference maker next season.

  5. 61Packer 02/19/2009 at 2:15 PM #

    The post-season may have gotten worse last night for the ACC. After watching Miami lay an egg in the Panhandle and the Hokies having their heads handed to them in Charlottesville, the ACC may be in danger of sending only 6 teams to the post-season. I now think the Hokies are headed to the NIT, along with Miami, although the Hurricanes’ schedule favors them more right now to be the ACC’s 7th team is there is one. Maryland is probably going to end up in the NIT. That leaves us as the league’s other NIT entry if we win 2 or all 3 of our remaining home games.

    I don’t think we’re going to the NCAA this season unless we win the ACC tourney, and winning one game, let alone 4 in Atlanta, will be difficult. This State team doesn’t play the type of consistent defense needed for the full 40 minutes to make a serious run in any quality tournament, and this season’s ACC tourney will be brutal. So, we’re probably looking at the NIT. I know this is exciting for some of our fans, but I had my fill of the NIT under He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named in this column, and I’m not going to speculate on the NIT except that if we get in, I have serious doubts we’d host any games given the attendance dropoff this season.

    I believe we’re stuck with this coaching staff as long as they want to be here. To Lowe’s credit, I’ve seen improvement this season. Perimeter defense at times is outstanding. So is hustle. Gonzalez looked great last night for most of the game. He is undeniably a fine dribbler whose passes are getting better. Costner needs to be in the game for us to win when we’re the underdog, and I know I’ll be corrected here if I’m wrong, but I didn’t see him out there much during the Heels’ early 2nd-half run. I’m disappointed that Julius Mays isn’t playing more right now. And I’d rather have Trevor Ferguson in the game than Cortney Fells because you know you’ll get 100% from Fergie 100% of the time. We played hard last night but lost, and I never consider a loss to UNC as a moral victory like some do on this site.

    Just a few observations from someone who doesn’t have an inside source or go to practices but does have an interest in this program’s resurrection. I know this isn’t the 50s when we were THE dominant program in the league, but I still have those memories and I have hope that again some day NC State basketball will be a source of pride.

  6. burnbarn 02/19/2009 at 2:27 PM #

    Its unfortunate that it took the staff 3/4th’s of the season to find this current 3-bigs-with-Fells-back-at-the-2 lineup, (a red hot Javi is the cherry on top).

    True, it is unfortunate, but on the other hand, some players like Smith have stepped it up.

    IIRC, everyone wanted coach to play Fells at the 3 this season.

  7. tractor57 02/19/2009 at 2:43 PM #

    Hindsight is always 20/20.

    I’m glad to see the team progressing of late – actually looks like a major college BB team now.

    As fans we get way to high off of wins and way to low off of losses.

    Whether you are for a coaching change or not all must agree that the team has played better of late. That play isn’t up to the level I want but much improved.

    I’m not the coach or “the coach” and have no desire to be either.

    Maybe like the football program the BB program is turning the corner – or maybe not. Either way I prefer the known rather letting “the coach” select yet another BB coach.

    I have a lot more confidence in the coaching staff(s) than I do in the administration.

  8. LRM 02/19/2009 at 3:01 PM #

    “The opportunity to play 2,3 or 4 more pressure games at the end of the year is priceless.”

    If by priceless, you mean worthless, then I agree (and so does last year’s squad, which — remarkably — failed to “build” on all that NIT magic from 2007).

  9. Rochester 02/19/2009 at 3:17 PM #

    Considering where we were not all that long ago, I think the NIT would be a tolerable finish to this season. But I don’t buy the NIT as a stepping stone to better things. The only long-term value would be if you played guys who didn’t get to play during the season. So instead of playing seniors who won’t be coming back, you play younger guys who will. The problem there is you cut your chance of winning, meaning you could be 1-and-done in the NIT.

    Someone earlier compared the basketball team making the NIT to the football team making the Pizza Bowl. Very valid comparison. It would have been nice to win the Pizza Bowl, but in the long run, who cares? I can’t see a lot of people lining up for t-shirts and hats to mark the big Pizza Bowl victory. And five minutes after the NIT is over we all won’t care about it either. Still, it’s better than sitting home.

  10. Alpha Wolf 02/19/2009 at 3:32 PM #

    If by priceless, you mean worthless, then I agree (and so does last year’s squad, which — remarkably — failed to “build” on all that NIT magic from 2007).

    We had a senior point guard and this year, obviously, we have two guards that are relatively inexperienced. I believe Julius Mays and even Farnold Degand could benefit from experiencing the do or die scenario. Tracy Smith and C.J. Williams as well.

    While McCauley and Fells will not be back next season, there are some guys who will be that have shown improvement each game they play…and even though the NIT means squat (even if you win it) the underclassmen would definitely get in more game reps by playing in any post-season.

  11. Gene 02/19/2009 at 4:11 PM #

    Nothing wrong with making the NIT, considering where this team was last year.

    Also, I don’t think this team could’ve done better than 8-8 in conference this year. If we can hold out the remaining three home games, we could go 7-9 in conference, which isn’t totally pathetic and solid improvement over the past couple of years.

    The real issue is will we continue to get better next year and the year after and the year after and so on.

  12. BJD95 02/19/2009 at 4:21 PM #

    Lowe and company also took the wrong lessons from the first ACCT and NIT run. They took at as proof of their own greatness, and a very lethargic offseason followed.

    After the disastrous Year Two and seeing the honeymoon period clearly end, I wouldn’t expect the same reactions.

  13. Wolfpack_1995 02/19/2009 at 5:01 PM #

    NIT or bust. With the talent and experience on this team no way it should not make the NIT.

    If Fells and Ben do not show up as seniors then I do see us making the CBI which is an embarrasment.

  14. BSIE80 02/19/2009 at 5:17 PM #

    I will take the NIT also.
    We need to finish strong just to make this tournament I would suspect.

    The best thing by far has been the play of Javi.
    Earlier this year and most of last year we have been asking for him to transfer, etc. A lot of posters were saying that he is not ACC caliber and I tended to agree.

    What I have seen the last 2-4 games is that he does have the ability. He even looks significantly bigger on the floor. Must be using steroids or something.

    With the incoming talent next year and the departure of Ben/Fells/Costner. We will be loaded in the backcourt and short in the frontcourt.

    We will need to play small ball next year (4 guards and 1 PF). This can work if we can run the floor effectively and shoot high % of 3’s. I think Villanova had an effective team like this.

    My guess:
    PG1- Javi/Mays
    PG2- Wall/Degand/Ferguson
    SG1- Brown/Wood/Thomas
    SG2- Williams/Horner (PF)
    PF- Tracy/Howell

    UNC will have 6 PF’s (Thompson/Ty2/Henson/Wear1/Wear2/Davis)

    PG- Drew
    SG- Strickland
    PF1- Ty2/Wear1
    PF2- Henson/Wear2
    PF3- Thompson/Davis

    They will be big next year.

    Hopefully, we can run by them, we sure want be able to rebound with them.

  15. choppack1 02/19/2009 at 5:18 PM #

    On another thread discussing this – I said that I thought that our magic # is 6. Right now, that means 5-0 in the ACC regular season, and 1-1 in tourney OR 4-1 and 2-1…I think that would have us close to a lock, giving us a pretty respectable record in the last 10-12 games against respectable competition.

    A couple of interesting things going on out there:
    1) UVA’s RPI is better than ours. (This is a good thing because we’ll get a bump if we beat them.)
    2) Georgetown and Miami are currently testing the RPI factor. Both of these teams have horrid conference records but a solid strength of schedule and a record > .500…
    3) VaTech’s and Miami’s slide (especially Miami’s) isn’t good for us.

    As others have pointed out, this UVa game is big for the program. We need to keep some momentum for recruiting. While I hate the idea of the NIT, it’s better than nothing. Still holding out some hope for the NCAAs, but we’ll have to have an incredible run…since we’re coming out of nowhere, a 7-9 conference record and 2 wins in the tourney won’t likely do it this year. I do think we’d get mentioned as a “bubble team”, but I think we’d be on the wrong side of it.

  16. highstick 02/19/2009 at 5:40 PM #

    I think Davidson proved my point about “crawling back under a rock” when Curry is gone! Hope the Davidson jerks that were yelling “State sucks” after Ferguson was hammered enjoy themselves while they can!

  17. redfred2 02/19/2009 at 5:45 PM #

    Rochester, I don’t buy that.

    We’re, or at least I am, just looking for improvement right now. If they make the NIT, they have an opportunity to play on and become more cohesive as a group. Admittedly, like BJD said, that did not happen the first time around, but I also believe that Lowe learned from those earlier mistakes.

    We had some company last evening and I could not really concentrate on the game like I normally would, but Costner started very well, and then disappeared as well. From what I could pay attention to, it seemed that he wasn’t getting the ball anymore after that fast start. Anyway, did he continue to get the ball and I just wasn’t paying attention, was it just good D, or did he seem to get rattled like Fells, because that last option is the impression that I got when I was able to watch?

  18. BSIE80 02/19/2009 at 6:03 PM #

    I think Costner was on the bench some because he had like 5 turnovers. A couple in a row that lead to easy baskets the other way. He leads this team in TO’s. Which is a big problem at the forward position.
    Horner came in and was hitting open shots, so he stayed on the bench more than normal.

  19. Greywolf 02/19/2009 at 6:08 PM #

    I’m reading many versions of “took 3/4 of the season off” in our comments. While I think I know what is meant by that, I don’t like that line of thinking because of the context that puts the hard work our coaches and players have obviously been doing. If what is meant is we had the ability and training to have won those games and just didn’t do it, I heartily disagree.

    Many of us are saying what a great job Sid has been doing, giving props to Javi in what has to be the miracle of the ACC. Smith has worked hard on his game and earned the right be on the court at crunch time. Javi, and Horner… who would have thought we would be singing their praises at this time of year.

    A little off topic… Sid had a small mistake in the second half, leaving Javi in when Javi was gassed. Javi turned it over — stolen from him — and was taken out immediately. He was picked up on camera almost panting he was so winded. I don’t think we should ever use the fist up in the air as a signal for needing to come out, but some signal is appropriate. As soon as he got his wind, he was right back in it.

  20. Greywolf 02/19/2009 at 6:19 PM #

    Regarding whether we go to the NIT or not, looking from the players, the coaches and the bb programs’s point of view the NIT is a good invite. I think of it like the Papa John bowl. I could care less personally if they went or not, but for the good of the team I was all for it.

    We may be “tired” of the NIT, but those players, recruits, and prospects aren’t.

  21. Wolfpack_1995 02/19/2009 at 6:27 PM #

    I agree Greywolf. The NIT for the bb team is similar to the fb team making the Papa John bowl. It gives our younger players more time to bond this year and get good experience in a national tournament even if it is not the NCAAs.

    I’m hoping this team will pull all the stops out and make a run to the NIT final four. I know the NIT isn’t the NCAAs but like the fb team the bb team needs to get into a post season experience to build on next season.

  22. LRM 02/19/2009 at 6:58 PM #

    So all of you that see the NIT as good experience for the younger guys expect those younger guys will get a lot more playing time during the NIT to develop? Because I don’t see Lowe modifying his lineup just to get some experience on those guys; after all, the goal is to win the thing. So how exactly does extra games on the bench make them better?

    We played in the NIT four times from 1997-2000, but we never made the NCAAT until 2002, a year after we failed to make even the NIT. Does anyone really, honestly think all those years in the NIT played any part in us finally “breaking through” with a 9-7 ACC record and an impressive run to the ACCT title game in 2002?

    I think the comparison of the NIT to the papajohns bowl is fair in the sense that you always want to be playing in the postseason — even if it is the NIT — but I disagree that the NIT is good experience for the development of younger players. The development for football and basketball are not the same. Those extra practices in football are more valuable to the young guys at non-skill positions than the bowl itself. But with the NIT, the competition is below the caliber of what these guys have been seeing every few nights for the past two months in the ACC, so I fail to see the reasoning that it’s a positive developmental experience, especially when the rotations aren’t going to change.

  23. JeremyH 02/19/2009 at 7:16 PM #

    this season looks like it’s headed in the direction of being a copy of two years ago. looking like a ncaa tourney team in late february/early march, but crapped the bed too many times in jan/mid feb due to poor guard play for it to matter. since we like to think college basketball is a guard’s game, will we be good next year?

    thanks to whoever mentioned Howell’s performance the other night and the comment by Gibbons, I love little recruiting tidbits like that ; ) It’s nice to see us recruiting non-positionless players.

  24. redfred2 02/19/2009 at 7:22 PM #

    LRM, you’re right in one aspect, the NIT, or the NCAAT for that matter, is not a post season BB clinic where all of the players get PT and special attention. It’s just more time to get familar with all of the different aspects, whether that is just more of seeing what their coaches will expect from them in future by watching the other players who are out on the court, or something as simple as spending time in that enviroment as a BB TEAM.

  25. wufpup76 02/19/2009 at 8:57 PM #

    Well, at least Duke isn’t going to lose to St. John’s tonight …

    That would’ve been a disaster for the ACC … Elliot Williams started over Paulus and Smith, btw

    Charlotte upsets Xavier … Musketeers struggling just like Butler … Tough year for the non-major conferences/teams this season

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