Ken Pomeroy is no longer calculating the RPI for Division I basketball teams. He said that he was tired of answering questions about the RPI and that it provided virtually no useful data for the types of “more sophisticated work†that he was doing.
This is especially sad for me, because I have used kenpom.com extensively over the last several years. Even though CBS still employs the Troll, I have spent some time looking at their RPI calcs and team pages. The “RPI Breakdown†page for each team is especially well laid out. One really interesting thing is that they break down the wins in the Top-100 in groupings of 25, instead of 50 at kenpom.com.
I think that this more in-depth view will be useful as we evaluate the NCAAT bubble. I expect that wins versus the Top-25 will be especially important as we pick through the last teams looking to clear the bubble. In a little over a month, we’ll see if my expectations are realized or not.
ACC Breakdown
Here are the ACC standings and the RPI ranking for each team through games played on 2/8.
I am going to ignore the top and bottom ¼ of the conference since their position relative to the NCAAT is pretty well fixed. I am going to focus on the middle of the conference and discuss some things that caught my attention.
I have looked at the NCAAT bubble several times before in several different formats. The “minimum†requirements to make the NCAAT vary somewhat from year to year (based on what everyone else in the nation is doing), but here is my minimum resume requirements for making the NCAAT:
-> 8-8 conference record
-> “Reasonable†OOC schedule (within say the top #175 SOS or so)
->Several wins against other NCAAT teams or one key-note win against a top program
-> ACCT win on Thursday
You can (and State has) get in with less on your resume. But this list will serve as a short-hand approach to evaluate teams at the half-way point in the conference schedule.
Note: Each team’s name is a link that will take you to the RPI Breakdown page at CBSsports.com
With wins over Duke and UNC, WF would have to have a collapse of epic proportions to miss the NCAAT. However, they recently had a tough two-week stretch with losses to VT, GT, and Miami. The win over Duke may have “salvaged†this period, but those three losses pretty much moved WF towards the middle of the conference in my mind.
Time well tell if this two-week period was just some inconsistency due to youth or if the losses point to deeper issues. In any event, I’m sure that Deacon fans are thrilled with the recovery of the program after three-consecutive losing ACC seasons. However, I am not convinced that they are ready to make reservations for the Final Four just yet.
I can’t remember the last time that FSU was in such good shape at the halfway point of the conference season. A top-25 RPI ranking and 5-3 conference record certainly has Seminole fans eager for Selection Sunday. An OOC strength of schedule ranking of #135 is a dramatic improvement over the recent past and has helped the RPI ranking as well.
However, a little closer look at FSU’s record revealed something that should be a little disturbing to FSU fans. Of those five ACC wins, four of them came against the bottom 1/3 of the conference….and they only have one game remaining against the bottom quartet.
In the second half of the conference schedule, FSU basically trades games against the bottom third with games against the middle third. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Seminoles are in trouble…it just means that the last eight games will be a lot tougher than the first eight. Here’s FSU’s remaining games:
Top 1/3 – WF, Clemson, Duke
Middle 1/3 – Miami, BC, VT (x2)
Bottom 1/3 – Virginia
Since joining the ACC, VT has missed the NCAAT twice with a .500 or better record in conference play. This doesn’t have any special significance…it’s just highly unusual. Last year, they missed the NCAAT because they were 1-7 against the RPI Top-50. Their only top-50 win was against Miami in the ACCT, which wasn’t quite good enough.
VT has work left before they can be assured of an NCAAT slot, but the road victory at WF certainly gave them that key victory that the lacked last year. An OOC SOS ranking of #90 is more than good enough. They obviously want to do as good as possible, but my minimums listed above are easily within reach.
I don’t have any reason to believe that the NCAAT selection committee gives any “credit†for close losses. However, if any team ever deserved some leeway for playing so well but coming up short, it would have to be this VT team. Four of their seven losses have been to Top-50 teams by a combined 8 points.
VT’s Remaining Schedule:
Top 1/3 – UNC, Clemson, Duke
Middle 1/3 – FSU (x2)
Bottom 1/3 – GT, Maryland, Virginia
BC got their signature win early in January in Chapel Hill. They currently sit at 3-5 against the Top-50, so they should be in pretty good shape….but more key-note wins never hurt.
The BC season is really strange in that their results have come in streaks:
Win three
Lose two
Win ten
Lose four
Win five
February is no time to have losing streaks, so we’ll have to see how they react after Sunday’s loss at WF. BC’s remaining schedule breaks down to:
Top 1/3 – Clemson, Duke (their next two games)
Middle 1/3 – Miami, FSU
Bottom 1/3 – GT, NCSU
With two losses to teams in the bottom 1/3 of the conference, Miami is not in the best possible position with respect to making the NCAAT. Home wins against WF and FSU are good…but “people†keep saying that the NCAAT selection committee likes to see road/neutral wins. Their best road win to date is against BC and we will have to wait and see how good that win turns out to be.
Miami may have the easiest remaining schedule of the ACC bubble teams:
Top 1/3 – UNC
Middle 1/3 –FSU, BC
Bottom 1/3 – UVA, GT, NCSU
If Miami doesn’t end up with an 8-8 or better conference record, then they really have no one to blame but themselves.
I have been known to make fun of GW and Maryland whenever possible. So in the interest of building up some off-setting karma, I am going to give the Twerps the benefit of the doubt and put them on the bubble (the far, back edge… but still on the bubble).
By far, Maryland’s best win of the season was against Michigan State in late November. The problem is that I’m not sure that the NCAAT selection committee gives much weight to “big†wins that early in the season. Other than that, their top-50 wins come against Miami (#41) and Michigan (#50).
So sitting at 4-5 in the conference, it is safe to say the Maryland COULD still make the NCAAT, but they have a lot of work left to do. Depending on how you look at it, they are “lucky†to have the most difficult remaining schedule of any ACC bubble team:
Top 1/3 – UNC, Clemson, WF, Duke
Middle 1/3 – VT
Bottom 1/3 – UVA, NCSU
The good news for the Terps is that if they get to 8-8 in the conference, then they will have added another key-note win to their resume.
General Note
As I reviewed this entry, I noticed that I did not discuss the OOC SOS for every team. Instead of going back and putting an ill-fitting sentence into each team’s write-up, I’ll just make a couple of blanket statements. While no one has a note-worthy difficult OOC schedule, no one has one to be embarrassed about either.
I think that it is safe to say that the conference performance down the stretch will determine how many ACC teams make the NCAAT. My wild guess for the moment is that seven teams from the ACC will make the NCAAT this year.
PS
Ignore all internet discussions about NCAAT seeding. The top seeds will not…and cannot be determined before the conference tournaments are played. You may be able to eliminate teams from the top 2 seeds as losses mount, but the conference tournaments could have a huge effect on where the top teams in each conference end up.
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