Updated “State of the Program” Thoughts

wilee

OK, dark side – you win. Last night’s disastrous effort pushed me over the edge. Taking a cue from Sidney Lowe’s motivational techniques and substitution patterns, I will not order my thoughts logically and just throw crap against the wall to see what sticks:

– Sidney Lowe has clearly lost this team, for the second year in a row. That’s completely unacceptable, and could be a program destroyer.

– Sidney Lowe not only put a shell-shocked Javi Gonzalez into a tie game cold midway through the second half, but also did so without a secondary ballhandler on the court with him. Gee, who could have predicted three straight turnovers (though somehow the boxscore only lists two) in that situation? I was mildly surprised that no crazed fans charged the court to set themselves on fire in protest.

– Julius Mays kept State in the game during the second half, but don’t read too much into it. Against a more disciplined opponent, he won’t be able to run around for 30 seconds, then get an open lane or pull-up jumper. And he still finished the game with no assists.

– The “effort” lineup that worked against FSU for about 10 minutes in the second half will not be able to stand against better competition. Even against the Noles, it was weak defensively and on the glass.

– By the “consecutive ACC losses” measure, Sidney Lowe is now the losingest coach in NC State history (hat tip, SFN commenters)! That’s saying alot from an institution that once employed Les Robinson for six long years. Congratulations, Coach!

– I’ve said this many times privately, and nobody has ever contradicted it – the only staff member that seems to have any clue about “nuts and bolts” college coaching is #3 assistant Pete Strickland. That’s just pathetic.

– When Lowe was hired, I told numerous friends that the great thing was that “limbo hell” was over – Sid would likely be a smashing success, or an abject failure. Looks like I was right.

– Fellow Hindenburg program Georgia Tech comes to town on Saturday. One team has to win, the other starts worrying about a Bob Wade-like season. State would actually be lucky if the crowd is small – otherwise, the ESA will be full of very angry people.

– I watched last night’s game late on DVR (my wife and kids claimed the HDTV that was recording the game for that awful American Idol show). I sent an e-mail to fellow SFN bloggers with about 9:30 to go and State down 1, saying that even if State comes back to win, this was one of the most poorly coached games I had ever seen. I apologize for not being there live with you on the blog – misery loves company.

– Want to feel even worse? In bad economic times, I think it’s fair to assume that the purse strings of the big money donors are much tighter. I’m not sure the money is there to chase off Fowler and Lowe, much less to throw money at a decent coach for what looks like a very major rebuilding job. Thus, I don’t see any rational reason to have so much as a scintilla of hope.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball General NCS Basketball Sidney Lowe

162 Responses to Updated “State of the Program” Thoughts

  1. RagingWolf 01/14/2009 at 12:51 PM #

    Can someone post D. Favor’s formal decision on this board once it is announced? Based on yesterday’s blogging he is to make a formal announcement today at 4:30. I am very curious so please post here asap!

  2. Texpack 01/14/2009 at 12:53 PM #

    If the rest of the ACC season goes like the game last night there is absolutely no reason for Sidney to be back next year. That was an abysmal coaching job last night. I don’t think there’s even a chance that Sidney will be gone unless we go 0-16 or 1-15 in conference. Those are records are very real possibilities if the coaching continues to be a bad as it was last night.

    I had the highest of hopes for Coach Lowe when he was hired. After watching him play in person for four years while I was at State, I was sure he knew more about basketball than what he showed last night. Unless there is a complete turnaround the rest of the year, it’s time to move on.

  3. choppack1 01/14/2009 at 12:56 PM #

    wulfpup – Regarding leadership. One of the reasons I’ve hesitated to criticize our players this year and last is that part of me wonders what they are seeing. We don’t have any idea what’s being said and what’s done in practice. We haven’t seen a player take a great leap forward after a sustained amount of time under the current staff. It’s definitely possible these guys – especially those brought in by the previous regime are malcontents. However, it’s also possible that these guys have just lost hope and don’t believe in their HC.

    There’s a great line in Remember the Titans – when one of the more talented leaders is being criticized by the captain for taking plays off – “attitude is a reflection of leadership.”

    If I saw huge leaps forward in the development of Javi, Marques Johnson, Degand, or Tracy Smith – I’d say, it’s just these guys – but I think the evidence is starting to suggest otherwise.

    Like I said earlier, we’ll learn even more next year. If Mays still makes boneheaded plays and uses improper technique on the defense, diving for steals when they aren’t there. If CJ Williams is basically the same player he is now. If Tracey Smith shoots 58% from the field and hasn’t developed a mid-range jumper – well, I think we’ll know a lot.

  4. BAC79 01/14/2009 at 12:57 PM #

    Someone earlier said if Sid can’t coach the kids he has what makes us think he can coach the kids he has coming. This is a very valid point.

    Look at every U.S. Olympic basketball coach. The players certainly aren’t his but they sure have to coach them like they are his. Coach K seemed to pull it off.

    So why should we be optimistic about any incoming players when we have seen no real improvement with the ones we have.

    Compare the basketball program with the football program. TOB obviously runs a performance based organization. The players know what is expected of them and they know the consequences of failing to meet those expectations.

    I cannot see any evidence that the basketball players know what is expected of them and there does not appear to be consequences for failing to meet those expectations. Otherwise, how to you explain the strange rotations and not allowing the hot hands to stay in games and all of the other problems that are apparent.

    Of course all of this is academic, because the fans have little or no power to change the situation. Our athletic program measures success in terms of revenue generated not by the number of wins. Until there is a drastic loss in revenue, the fans will not be heard. The Athletic dept. and BOT are not in any way accountable to the fanbase pure and simple.

  5. McPete 01/14/2009 at 1:00 PM #

    Lowe probably has to really embarrass the program to get fired. like players fighting on the court. or getting busted with a pro. something truly unforgivible, not merely lacking a point guard. damn, we’ve been hearing that for 3 years now. it’s getting very old, very quick.

    i posted a link to Joe giglio’s editorial today and he mentioned a rift between the Sendek guys (McCauley, Costner, and fells) and Lowe. if that’s true, and these guys just won’t play hard for Lowe, he should dismiss them from the team. if they can’t follow his rules (assuming he has some rules), why are they still around. you can’t win with people that don’t believe in you.

  6. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 01/14/2009 at 1:02 PM #

    Yes everyone know we are weak at the PG but Lowe and Towe (Gainey) haven’t been able to bring one in over the last 3 years. Apparently there isn’t a decent PG in the entire JUCO ranks that State could have brought in.

  7. wufpup76 01/14/2009 at 1:06 PM #

    “However, it’s also possible that these guys have just lost hope and don’t believe in their HC.”

    It’s a very fine line and the real dilemma is that we may not know the answer anytime soon … Of course if we win 0 or 1 conference games then we may just well have our answer.

    Like you said, we are not privy to goings on in practice and other team functions, but from my very eagle eye seat Sidney Lowe’s decision making and use of personel seems very scattershot at best

    As with anything at N.C. State, time will surely tell … That’s all we’ve got … time

  8. ppack3 01/14/2009 at 1:15 PM #

    Well, generally speaking, talent rules. If you have great players, mistakes in the x’s and o’s aren’t as relevant. It seems to me that there are not many (if any) screens being set, on or off of the ball, to get players open looks or good switches. There are no pick and rolls, no pick and pops, no give and go plays, etc. I guess my point is, we have a bunch of guys that are supposed to a) run from one side of the court to the other, faster than the defender, in order to get open, or b) post up to get the ball, or c) create their own shot. NBA. Only we don’t have anyone that can do any of those things. Not to mention, the guys that can shoot us back into a game, think the three point line = the half court line. I would love to see one shot from Fells or Costner when their toes are anywhere near the arc!
    Now, the substitution patterns are “pot luck.” You’ve got guys that are playing well for two trips down the floor, and then taking plays off. You only have so many bodies to use to make a point. First, people say to Lowe…”Why don’t you hold them accountable?” And then, when he’s yanking guys out of the game, they say, “Why are you subbing these guys in and out so much?” The truth lies somewhere in between. There are things going on behind the scenes that most of us will never hear about. I’m sure some of these guys aren’t “running their stuff.” Half the time it looks like Costner is having a seizure trying to create something, and Big Ben could give a rip. Half of the time. The other half, they look like they could play with the big boys. Lowe will sit guys as needed (ex. Grant in his final game, ever). Lowe’s tenure at NCSU will be largely dependent upon the talent that he is able to attract to Raleigh. If Lowe landed Wall and Favors, along with the established recruits, he goes down in NC State lore. If he attracts no more “Big Guns” the jury will be out until he is fired, as is the case with 90% of the coaches in the NCAA’s.
    Basketball is a game of minimizing mistakes. Percentages. You can’t look at one or two things that lost you a game, any more than you can look at one or two things that win your team a game. You have contributing factors, and those factors change by the game. Better Players = Better FG% = more wins.

  9. packalum44 01/14/2009 at 1:15 PM #

    This is a sad day in the history of sad days in Wolfpack Basketball.

    http://www.fireleefowler.com

    Hoping a petition can be formed so the average fan/alumnus can sign to show their displeasure for Fowler. The silver lining of Lowe’s failures are that the wheels are in motion for Lee’s ousting.

  10. wufpup76 01/14/2009 at 1:20 PM #

    “It wasn’t expected,” Mays said of the new lineup, “but now I know to expect the unexpected.”

    ^Probably sums it up from a player’s point of view. In other words, nobody knows their roles, nobody knows who’s doing what, and nobody knows when or even if they will play. Must be a lovely team environment.

    I’m all for the coach having absolute control, at the same time you can’t wreck your team psychologically either. This seems a good way to send mixed signals and for guys to scratch their head and lose confidence.

    One guy is already absolutely lost – Javi. He looked almost ready to cry during that stretch he was in. I wanted to cry for him – I like him. I appreciate Sidney and the staff clapping for him and urging him on, but the look on his face and his body language said it all. He’s already gone.

    More guys could be lost after last night’s postgame comments.

    I thought the trainwreck from last season was over. I was absolutely wrong. There’s one man in charge of all that. Fix it – or else.

  11. packalum44 01/14/2009 at 1:39 PM #

    “There’s one man in charge of all that. Fix it – or else.”

    Ironically, he doesn’t have the talent to do this.

  12. whitefang 01/14/2009 at 1:42 PM #

    Maybe someone already asked this, but couldn’t read all the posts. This is a very popular topic so somebody still gives a crap about this program:

    I wonder if there is any chance someone (BOT) takes the decision out of Fowler’s hands ala Amato, forces a change to be made at the end of the season, and tells Leebo to head to the lake while a pro looks for a coach. opinion Noah?

    I mean is there anybody out there who really thinks Lowe is gonna be able to turn this battleship around ever? He is over his head and the pool is getting deeper.

  13. ChiefJoJo 01/14/2009 at 1:44 PM #

    Forewarned that I was overseas most of Dec, & I’ve only seen the UF game, here are my thoughts:

    1. We need to at least give Lowe the rest of the year & more likely thru year 4. Everyone knew this would be a tough rebuild, so what has changed up till this point that we didn’t know? The season is not lost.

    2. Isn’t it just a little bit suggestive to start a “state of the program” topic less than 24 hours after a bad loss? All it does is prompt more of the Lowe haters to say ‘see I was right, he’s a terrible coach.’

    3. It’s natural to compare the two major revenue sports, BB & FB. As much as I like TOB, why is it that he gets a free pass for two medicore seasons, and Sid doesn’t? How many people ont his board were ready to jump off a cliff after the USF FB game? Both programs were taken over under somewhat similarly depleated conditions. Yes, I know TOB is a proven HC. Both have had bad losses. Both have had good wins over rivals. Both have a similar winning %. Both have showed they can recruit pretty well. So why does TOB get a free pass and Sid not?

    Sid: 20-16, 15-16, 9-5…35-32 (after 2 yrs), 44-37 overall
    TOB: 5-7, 6-7… 11-14

    Just food for thought.

  14. VaWolf82 01/14/2009 at 1:47 PM #

    I thought the trainwreck from last season was over.

    Apparently, a lot of other people thought so too. I never understood it, but I’ve seen it happen enough that it doesn’t surprise me. Bascially, most weaknesses from the previous season are ignored, the incoming freshman are assumed to fix whatever problems are acknowledged, and the returning players AVERAGE performance is going to meet or exceed their BEST performance seen to date.

    When the obviously flawed predictions fail to materialize, the meltdowns start…and I usually tune out most of the internet devoted to Wolfpack sports.

  15. kyjelly 01/14/2009 at 1:50 PM #

    ^ Well the majority TOBS wins were not against Winston Salem,AT&T,NC Central etc etc . He has proven he can coach,run a program ,show improvment,be accountable shall I continue?

  16. gcpack 01/14/2009 at 1:51 PM #

    Texpack that is what I thought a couple of weeks ago that the only way that Lowe was gone would be an “o-fer” season in the ACC. I also agree with WolfDog that its time to dump the no senior leadership group(Costner, McC, & Fells) and get the youth movement engaged.

    Re: the first point by Texpack we HAVE to keep Lowe no matter what happens to get in these recruiting classes that are coming up. We have no choice.
    In addition who would we hire? The only possibility would be an up and coming assistant at a top school or a mid-major type looking to move up. That can be done anytime.
    We have to suck it up and let Lowe get in more of his people who WANT to play.

    Costner(mr.hot , mr. cold, mr. hot,mr. cold,), McCauley(can NOT finish), & Fells(For every great move I make I throw the ball away twice)are now bench players.

    This is coming to the second pt. from WolfDog. The seniors provide no leadership, either by example or by voice. After Thomas, Williams, Mays, and Horner(yes,I think he helps us) kept with FSU in the 2nd half they deserve to get the PT & gain the experience and develop a rhythm .

    We should sacrifice this year to get the final Sendekians out and get some real,not so psycho cases on the floor that have true ability to actually finish and, who do not throw some miniscule flashes of brilliance on the floor for only 5 minutes of everygame like the seniors do.

    We’re stuck with the team as it is folks. The change should be with the players and not the coach. Give the young players the chance to develop while recognizing that a coaching change buries us further.

  17. Rochester 01/14/2009 at 1:53 PM #

    Giglio’s story on ACC Now is interesting. If we are reaching the point where Sid decides to phase out McCauley and Costner, then let’s get on with it. I think Costner’s got more to offer, though I loved Ben two years ago. He was awesome. That dunk in the win over UNC was special and I thought we were really moving in the right direction then. I still have a picture of that on my background wallpaper. Guess there haven’t been many highlights since. Oh well.

    Sendek had a tough call to make after year 5 when he told Damien Wilkins to walk. Gutsy move to tell your best-ever recruit (to that point) not to come back (after he dabbled in the NBA draft following his sophomore year). It worked out well for the team. If this is what needs to be done, then Sid’s got to sit those guys and get on with things. Something tells me it’s not that cut-and-dried, though.

  18. Wulfpack 01/14/2009 at 1:56 PM #

    “3. It’s natural to compare the two major revenue sports, BB & FB. As much as I like TOB, why is it that he gets a free pass for two medicore seasons, and Sid doesn’t?”

    TOB didn’t lose 11 straight conference games. Case closed.

  19. Classof89 01/14/2009 at 2:03 PM #

    “For those that can remember, they were ready to put Coach K out of the door after three years and now…….”

    Can we put this silly analogy to rest for all time, PLEASE? It was also used inaccurately in Sendek’s third season.

    Yes, Duke struggled in K’s third season. But look at the freshman class they had that year: Jay Bilas, Johhny Dawkins, Mark Alarie, David Henderson. When Tommy Amaker joined them the next year (I’m assuming he was already inked in 1983, K’s third season), they had the foundation of a National Championship game participant in 1986, when those guys were seniors. Can anyone really argue credibly that we have that kind of foundation in the program RIGHT NOW? (and don’t go telling me who we’re in the final five list for in the class of 2010…that doesn’t mean jack-diddly)

  20. Justin Gainey 01/14/2009 at 2:04 PM #

    I think TOB might have won more ACC conference games too. Also, the first season doesn’t really count towards Sid, we all know Engin Atsur was in control of that team.

  21. wufpup76 01/14/2009 at 2:06 PM #

    VaWolf,

    The trainwreck I was referring to was that of team chemistry, effort, and a coach not losing his team. THAT is what I was absolutely wrong about.

    What you’re referring to is someone with blind faith who expects a new season and new players to magically fix everything. If you think I’m that dumb, then …

  22. old13 01/14/2009 at 2:17 PM #

    “3. It’s natural to compare the two major revenue sports, BB & FB. As much as I like TOB, why is it that he gets a free pass for two medicore seasons, and Sid doesn’t?”

    It doesn’t take nearly as long to turn around a BB program as it does a FB program.

    “I wonder if there is any chance someone (BOT) takes the decision out of Fowler’s hands ala Amato, forces a change to be made at the end of the season, and tells Leebo to head to the lake while a pro looks for a coach.”

    The best way to take the decision out of Foulup’s hands is to get rid of Foulup. It’s the AD’s job, not the BOT’s or Chancellor’s, to deal with coaching issues, and we all know how ineffective and useless Foulup is in this and just about every other aspect relating to Wolfpack athletics. But then, the BOT/Old-Mediocre-Finger don’t seem to have the guts to deal with the AD issues either.

  23. DRW 01/14/2009 at 2:19 PM #
  24. choppack1 01/14/2009 at 2:25 PM #

    “Yes, I know TOB is a proven HC. Both have had bad losses. Both have had good wins over rivals. Both have a similar winning %. Both have showed they can recruit pretty well. So why does TOB get a free pass and Sid not?

    Sid: 20-16, 15-16, 9-5…35-32 (after 2 yrs), 44-37 overall
    TOB: 5-7, 6-7… 11-14

    Just food for thought”

    You’ve served that meal up before.

    First off – you can’t compare overall college football records to overall college basketball records. The reason you can’t do this is in basketball your conference season (which is probably the best indicator of the true strength of your program relative to its peers) is 53% of the season. OTOH, in football, it’s 67% of the regular season.

    But, let’s look at conference records in the regular season.
    Sidney: 9-23
    TOB:7-9

    More food for thought:
    Sidney’s predecessor’s last 2 years: 17 -15
    TOB’s predecessor’s last 2 years: 5-11.

    One coach has improved our conference win total 40%. The other coach has decreased it by almost 50%.

    That and the fact TOB has won on the college level before and has extensive experience. Sid has no successful HC experience and no college experience.

  25. newt 01/14/2009 at 2:25 PM #

    I’m not so concerned or confused about the rotation. It can be explained as simply as Lowe goes with the hot hand. At game’s end, it also makes perfect sense to have your experienced senior starters come into the game to MAINTAIN the lead. They have experience and would theoretically be more steady and not blow it.

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