Four Tiers in ACC Hoops

08-09 Basketball131

After today’s action, all ACC teams have played 5 or 6 league games. It seems to me that some symmetry is starting to emerge. You can categorize these teams in the following groups of three:

Tier I (Excellent) – Duke, UNC, Wake Forest. All of these teams are legitimate Final Four contenders. Once the polls come out, Duke will ascend to #1 nationally, meaning that 3 Tobacco Road programs will have held down the top spot this season. So much for the “but there’s no room at the top with UNC and Duke down the road!” theory. If the small private school in Winston-Salem can do it, there’s no excuse for the large state university in Raleigh to accept second-class status.

Tier II (Good) – Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami. All of these teams should make the NCAA tourney, and I could see each of them reaching the Sweet Sixteen. As I predicted before ACC play started, Virginia Tech has indeed shaken off its typical December struggles, landing impressive road wins against Miami and then #1 Wake Forest. It’s not a talented enough group to compete for the league title, but as usual, Basketball Grobe is getting the most out of what he’s got. Miami’s loss to the Hokies assures they will come into Raleigh hungry on Tuesday night – lucky us.

Tier III (Mediocre) – Florida State, Maryland, Boston College. Meet your NIT and CBI participants. These teams are all fundamentally flawed and, especially in BC’s case, very inconsistent. These teams are very glad for the heavily populated league cellar. This tier also contains two fairly hot seats (those belonging to Leonard Hamilton and Gary Williams). It’s not comforting that NC State has suffered two double digit losses to Tier III opponents.

Tier IV (Shitty) NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech. The largest dropoff in quality is between Tiers III and IV. These teams have beaten nobody but each other. No team has a realistic path to any post-season whatsoever. Epic meltdowns and uninspired play are hallmarks of Tier IV. Paul Hewitt saved his job (barring a league first 0-16 season) by signing Derrick Favors, and Sidney Lowe works for Lee Fowler. Dave Leitao has no such life raft available.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

131 Responses to Four Tiers in ACC Hoops

  1. Rochester 01/26/2009 at 8:11 PM #

    We’re still just two players away in basketball. The players are Magic Johnson and Larry Bird.

  2. Primewolf 01/26/2009 at 8:18 PM #

    I am just tried of reading or thinking about NC State BB. Same old stuff. I only watch a TV game if I have nothing else planned.

    My elite RBC seats go empty at times. I don’t think I will revnew next year, as no one in my family wants to go to the games anymore. Heck, the folks that sit around me don’t show up and they are paying >$500 per seat per season.

    There is one thing that could excite me besides thoughts of wolfpack football next season—- Lee Fowler getting fired.

    Because if they don’t fire Lee, it is too depressing to think how long and how bad BB is going to get here. The only worst thought than us losing most games is Lee Fowler leading another BB coach search.

  3. BSIE80 01/26/2009 at 8:19 PM #

    We may need Shaq or Duncan to secure the post and get rebounds.

  4. redfred2 01/26/2009 at 8:26 PM #

    We need to start showing that we have some kind of Johnson, magic or not, one way or the other.

  5. CStanley 01/26/2009 at 8:31 PM #

    On one hand, you cannot deny the fact that Sid had to absorb a huge blow to recruiting and player attrition his first year. He basically lost an entire recruiting class (including Chris Wright, who would be starting), in addition to existing players Simmons & Brackman. Not much was expected his first year, and, to a degree, he got his team to overperform. Most were ok with the losing ACC record, especially with the way we ended the year and the promise of the following season.

    On the other hand…last year was an almost utter disaster. We needed at least an NIT birth, and fighting for at least a bubble bid was needed. We tanked, finished DFL in the league, and were only able to keep one of the best freshman we’ve ever had for one year (which caused a supposed team rift to boot).

    Sid has followed up last year with poor leadership from his seniors, no quality wins, and no real sign that we are any better than last year (let alone two years ago). I’m not sold we’re the worst team in the league, but that argument is pointless as we’re being compared to GT and UVA, who are complete shit this year. The fact that our seniors look worse (or at least no better than) than they did two years ago, is inexcusable. Our games are very disjointed, and I honestly cannot remember a completely well played game in over two years from Sidney Lowe.

    I hate to say it so soon, but if our administration does not proactively recognize the graveness of our situation, we will be no better in 2 to 3 years than we are now, potentially worse. Of course, the administration is a big part of why we are at the point we are in basketball. Had TOB not fell in Fowler’s lap, we’d be in the same situation in football.

    A big part of why Lowe was behind the 8-ball when we started was the fuckup that was the Lee Folwer coaching search. Lowe may need to go, but Fowler should lead the parade out of Raleigh. I don’t think anything substantially improves (long term) until he’s gone.

  6. Pack1998 01/26/2009 at 8:33 PM #

    REALIZE THIS – Per Joe Lunardi, all teams we have lost to so far are in his NCAA Brackets with the exception of BC, who is in the 3rd tier of “next four out”. BC could make it to the bubble by year end.

    WAIT until the season is over to assess, then raise hell as you like. That is a more rational approach. This team is making progress; it may be slow, but there are some good things slowly developing . . . too slow for our eyes, but tiny steps forward are better than drastic inconsistency like we saw last year.

  7. redfred2 01/26/2009 at 8:48 PM #

    We are not going to the post season, it’s a REWARD, and what good would that be anyway? ????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We may be missing many things, but the BIG ONE, and the only thing that really matters, is the correct personnel. Whether you want to lay it strictly on the staff personnel, or the player personnel.

    What people had better start looking forward to as success this season is a renewed intensity and big showing out on the BB court of the simple desire to improve one’s OWN game.

  8. BSIE80 01/26/2009 at 8:48 PM #

    Amen

  9. Bubba 01/26/2009 at 9:00 PM #

    Sure didnt take us long to go from Tier 2 to Tier 4

  10. redfred2 01/26/2009 at 9:39 PM #

    I agree with chop and a few others around here.

    Let’s go back and make up a huge WHAT IF scenario… What IF Cedric Simmons had decided to stay, Andrew Brackman had decided to play, whomever??? was responsible for them at the time did not screw up royally with the incoming recruiting class, Chris Wright comes, and on, and on, and on…

    Where would we be right now, and what would us fans be thinking about right now? For that matter, what would Sidney Lowe be thinking about right now???

    It’s a whole different story IF, very H-U-G-E IF this time around, the entire NC State BB program had ever actually been on the upswing, if playing BB for NC State had ever once given the impression of being anything nearing the idea of having FUN while playing a GAME, and IF, those persons in charge of running the program had been proactive and just done their jobs in managing a former coach, and his later departure, and in holding down the fort while they did at least a professional ‘looking’ search for a replacement.

    Sidney Lowe probably would not even be here if they had done even part of things that I mentioned above. But even if the eventual coaching search did not pan out as expected, and if Sidney Lowe did still somehow end up in Raleigh, IF the people who were SUPPOSED to be running the show and calling the shots had only done part of THEIR JOBS correctly, we would all still be having an entirely different conversation RIGHT NOW.

    It might still involve Sidney Lowe and some saying that he does not know how to coach the game, but we would have at least had some different players that could have given us a clearer indication either way by about now.

    I say bitch and moan about specifics, that’s totally justified at any program, but try to lay off the FIRE HIM stuff until about midway through next season, if it’s still neccessary to say that by then.

    The reason I say that is because all you’ll be doing is changing the name of the coach, and watching as NC State University screws it up, falls even further down and loses all interest from several more HS recruiting classes, and then settles on flatty on the bottom without even the chance of getting a player that could make a difference anyway.

    Lowe must be given more time, and he must have some success, even if it’s only briefly, and only out on the recruiting trails.

  11. Uncle Everett 01/26/2009 at 10:05 PM #

    In reality, their are three good teams, six mediocre teams and three shitty teams.

    I see only three solid NCAA teams (sorry Clemson-you’ve beaten no one) and none of those are championship material. Tournament time is weird though so who knows.

  12. Wulfpack 01/26/2009 at 10:08 PM #

    What if NC State had hired a coach with some college basketball coaching experience?

    I haven’t given up yet on Lowe, but I’m much further along that path than I was after 10 straight losses last year. He had a year to get his ducks in a row and, well, it appears he missed that assignment. I heard the talk from the players over the offseason how this year would be different. They were right — we just suck ass a little bit more. Until I see something different from this team on the basketball floor, I won’t change my mind.

    He gets 1 more year to try to figure this thing out. If we are still bottom feeders come March 2010, I’d advise him to seek another assistant coaching job in the NBA. Nothing wrong with that.

    I’m not saying it can’t happen, or it won’t happen, but as it stands today it’s a freaking pipe dream. Prove us wrong, coach. We know you love this school. Now prove that you love your job. Because right now you look like your content collecting a hefty paycheck for putting forth little sweat. Get mad, draw a T or two, show your team your freaking pissed off at how soft they are playing. Admit your mistakes after a shitty loss. That would go a long way in earning the fans’ respect.

    And for those of you who dread the impending firing of Lowe if we continue down this path, I would venture to say there are about 100 mid-major coaches with college basketball coaching experience that would be happy to have the opportunity. Gotta be a diamond in the rough somewehere along the way.

    If we were to offer the job to 1. Sean Miller 2. Jeff Capel or 3. Anthony Grant, I will guarantee you one of those guys would take it for the same $ we are paying Lowe. All three of those guys are upgrades. Just think about it.

  13. kyjelly 01/26/2009 at 10:34 PM #

    Anthony Grant hands down go get em

  14. Noah 01/27/2009 at 9:50 AM #

    Lowe must be given more time, and he must have some success, even if it’s only briefly, and only out on the recruiting trails.

    Give him all the time you want. You still end up in the same place. You have a window as a head coach. After a certain point, it really doesn’t matter what you MIGHT do or what you COULD have done. Lowe’s reputation is setting very quickly and nothing will undo it.

    Also, BJD…”I’ve Seen All Good People” is a much better song about chess.

  15. ktoh 01/27/2009 at 9:58 AM #

    ^”Lowe must be given more time,and must have some success,even if it’s only briefly,and only out on the recruiting trails”
    Why? He has had time and stack up our underclassman ,whom Sid brought in (on the recruiting trails} every damn tema in the league has better frosh and sophs. I for one have seen enough,and the more time you give Sid the more you will see he ain’t gonna cut it ever as a college coach.

  16. jbpackfan 01/27/2009 at 10:01 AM #

    Here’s a positive outlook since there aren’t many on here: we’re only -1 in ACC play (1 home loss). The point guard play is improving slowly. Sid said he was planning to cut the rotation down, and also play Smith, Costner and McCauley together more. The press has been effective (when is the last time you could say that about State’s press?). Brown is a borderline McDonald’s All-American. Harrow is scoring 30 points per game. Howell is by all accounts a terrific player. Cheer up everyone! There won’t be any coaching change this year, so just deal with it!

  17. happypackdad 01/27/2009 at 10:20 AM #

    “happypackdad, what is the secret to your lack of bitterness? How long have you been a Wolfpack fan that this hasn’t gotten to you yet?”

    37 yrs old, NCSU grad in ’93. It’s “gotten” to me, believe me, but creating a negative enviroment around the program & city doesn’t help. Sid is in place & it takes time to build recruiting relationships. He’s doing a fine job of that. He’s also learning how to be a college coach. I feel we’re heading in the right direction & each year will get better. We won’t be in last place this yr, maybe NIT. Back to NCAA’s next.

  18. Alpha Wolf 01/27/2009 at 10:36 AM #

    We won’t be in last place this yr,

    Amazing how our standards have devolved in the past generation.

    That’s a lofty goal, to not be DFL in a 12-horse race.

  19. happypackdad 01/27/2009 at 11:29 AM #

    not a goal, improvement from last yr.

  20. Wulfpack 01/27/2009 at 12:13 PM #

    “We won’t be in last place this yr”

    I am not so certain of that. Took OT at home to beat the dead last Jackets. UVA has a very good freshman leading the league in scoring I believe.

    “maybe NIT”

    Maybe, though not likely considering no non-conference wins of note.

    “Back to NCAA’s next”

    We lose our 3 leading scorers and our best perimeter defender. I woud not be so confident of that.

  21. happypackdad 01/27/2009 at 12:29 PM #

    Costner might be back. Mayes & FD will be better. Brown will start. Should go to the NCAA’s.

  22. redfred2 01/27/2009 at 12:38 PM #

    “Get mad, draw a T or two, show your team your freaking pissed off at how soft they are playing. Admit your mistakes after a shitty loss. That would go a long way in earning the fans’ respect.”

    Totally agree with you there Wulfpack.

    I can’t say that I wasn’t posting almost the EXACT SAME WORDS, and for years, when the last coach was here though.

    That is where Sidney Lowe has disappointed me the most. But, I also have to look at how fragile player personalities are in the program right now and take that into account.

    Lowe could be perceived as the second coming of Matt Daugherty if he came down too hard on these players right now. It seems that these guys don’t think they owe their present coach one damn thing.

  23. Classof89 01/27/2009 at 1:05 PM #

    ^^
    Are you kidding? I ALREADY perceive Lowe as the second coming of Matt Doherty, with the primary difference being our AD doesn’t have the cajones to pull the plug after year three of this disasterous experiment…Oh, and the fact that Matt had Division I head coaching experience under his belt when he arrived (and after his firing at UNC, has gone on to land another college head coaching job). Does anyone seriously think Sidney Lowe will ever have another college basketball job after we eventually fire him?

  24. BJD95 01/27/2009 at 1:55 PM #

    ^ Of course not.

    He’s really more like Clyde Drexler than Matt Doherty. Although that’s still not a great analogy, because he has at least been an NBA assistant. I think Houston’s search must have been limited to cold calls to the alumni directory.

  25. Bubba 01/27/2009 at 2:09 PM #

    happypackdad

    If John Wall isnt wearing a Wolfpack jersey next year, we wont sniff an NCAA bid.He is our only hope at having a quality ACC point guard next year.

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