Four Tiers in ACC Hoops

08-09 Basketball131

After today’s action, all ACC teams have played 5 or 6 league games. It seems to me that some symmetry is starting to emerge. You can categorize these teams in the following groups of three:

Tier I (Excellent) – Duke, UNC, Wake Forest. All of these teams are legitimate Final Four contenders. Once the polls come out, Duke will ascend to #1 nationally, meaning that 3 Tobacco Road programs will have held down the top spot this season. So much for the “but there’s no room at the top with UNC and Duke down the road!” theory. If the small private school in Winston-Salem can do it, there’s no excuse for the large state university in Raleigh to accept second-class status.

Tier II (Good) – Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami. All of these teams should make the NCAA tourney, and I could see each of them reaching the Sweet Sixteen. As I predicted before ACC play started, Virginia Tech has indeed shaken off its typical December struggles, landing impressive road wins against Miami and then #1 Wake Forest. It’s not a talented enough group to compete for the league title, but as usual, Basketball Grobe is getting the most out of what he’s got. Miami’s loss to the Hokies assures they will come into Raleigh hungry on Tuesday night – lucky us.

Tier III (Mediocre) – Florida State, Maryland, Boston College. Meet your NIT and CBI participants. These teams are all fundamentally flawed and, especially in BC’s case, very inconsistent. These teams are very glad for the heavily populated league cellar. This tier also contains two fairly hot seats (those belonging to Leonard Hamilton and Gary Williams). It’s not comforting that NC State has suffered two double digit losses to Tier III opponents.

Tier IV (Shitty) NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech. The largest dropoff in quality is between Tiers III and IV. These teams have beaten nobody but each other. No team has a realistic path to any post-season whatsoever. Epic meltdowns and uninspired play are hallmarks of Tier IV. Paul Hewitt saved his job (barring a league first 0-16 season) by signing Derrick Favors, and Sidney Lowe works for Lee Fowler. Dave Leitao has no such life raft available.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

131 Responses to Four Tiers in ACC Hoops

  1. Noah 01/26/2009 at 3:48 PM #

    The best argument in Lowe’s favor right now is that he’s recruiting well…he has LOIs or verbal commitments from 5 players who could change the direction of NC State basketball – much like the 2001-2002 freshman class did at NC State. Losing either one of those classes COULD set our program back a few years.

    How strong of an argument is that, really? If John Wall and/or Favors and Derrick Cousins were in that class, I might agree with you.

    They aren’t.

    Right now, it’s a shooting guard who occassionally plays point guard and a guy who might become a pretty good power forward. Both of them are listed in the top 50.

    Was the 2001 class the Julius Hodge class? Hodge was a difference maker. He was an elite, top-10 player. I don’t see any current commitment having that impact.

  2. BoKnowsNCS71 01/26/2009 at 3:50 PM #

    I went to the NCAA stats site. The highest NC State is ranked in any category was #13 for most personal fouls per game. We did get in the top 50 for some defense but at the low end of that.

    http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings?sportCode=MBB

  3. choppack1 01/26/2009 at 3:57 PM #

    Noah – I think CJ Leslie could be that kind of impact player as could Harrow.

    I also think that Sidney knows the game better than Les did. In Les’s 6 years here, did he EVER win 2 consecutive tournament games?

    Now, I will agree that comparing him to Les Robinson is pretty damning in itself. Of course, I’d also tell you that Les walked into a situation where 95% of the coaches would have made the tournament in the first year. The restrictions he faced made it more difficult, but I think a good coach overcomes him. OTOH, Sidney walked into a much more tough situation short term, but the program was better positioned to take off in the right circumstances. Unfortunately, like Les, Sid’s overall “management” skills concern me the most.

  4. Gene 01/26/2009 at 4:01 PM #

    “Unless he’s recruiting Marques Johnson ”

    Sigh…Bruce Pearl not only recruited MJ, but tried using him as a starter, as a freshman…didn’t work out…

    Every team has screw up players and wasted schollies. I’m not going to throw a coach overboard for reaching and landing busts. It happens to the best programs (i.e. Duke and Carolina).

    It’s only noticeable because we didn’t have depth, so guys who should be riding the bench ended up playing lots of minutes.

    “Unfortunately, Sidney has one more full season at his HC position that TOB does. Unfortunately, Sidney does not have the track record that TOB does.”

    How was NCSU football doing, when Nate Irving was injured? How was the defense without Irving? How was the offense, when we were hunting for a QB who “got it”?

    TOB knows what he’s doing, and even when we sucked, I thought he’d turn it around. I don’t know about Sid.

    It’s just a couple of players, here and there, can make a huge difference between being good and sucking on teams, which aren’t very deep, in any sport.

    We just don’t have those difference makers in basketball, yet. We don’t have players, who can win games for us, when things breakdown. No coach can win, without a player like that.

  5. happypackdad 01/26/2009 at 4:03 PM #

    ^ Brown will start next season at the 2.

  6. Rick 01/26/2009 at 4:06 PM #

    “facts are one thing. Constant bi*ching & moaning is tiresome & useless.”

    Thank you for the well thought out and reasonable argument.

  7. McPete 01/26/2009 at 4:10 PM #

    “^ Brown will start next season at the 2.”

    You mean he’s gonna wrestle that spot away from the great Trevor Fergeson?

    Who’s gonna start at point guard and center?

  8. BSIE80 01/26/2009 at 4:16 PM #

    We do need to recruit and get players that are top 20-30 on a regular basis in order to compete with Duke & Carolina.
    How many McDonald All-Americans do they have compared to us? How many top 20 players do they have compared to us?

    Sid is making progress in this area, but he still has opportunity to improve. Unfortunately, most of the top players want to go to a successful program that will give them the opportunity to play for championships. We will need to make the NCAAT consistently inorder to attract this type of talent every year (Catch 22).
    Calipari seems to be doing it in Memphis. His previous success helped. Lowe does not have that and we must be patient to see it occur.

  9. Noah 01/26/2009 at 4:28 PM #

    We do need to recruit and get players that are top 20-30 on a regular basis in order to compete with Duke & Carolina.
    How many McDonald All-Americans do they have compared to us? How many top 20 players do they have compared to us?

    Right now, I’d be thrilled to be competitive with Clemson and BC. How many McDonald’s All-Americans do THEY have?

    Sid is making progress in this area, but he still has opportunity to improve. Unfortunately, most of the top players want to go to a successful program that will give them the opportunity to play for championships. We will need to make the NCAAT consistently inorder to attract this type of talent every year (Catch 22).

    In order to get to that level, a successful coach must get his team to overperform. This is something that Lowe has NEVER done.

  10. happypackdad 01/26/2009 at 4:34 PM #

    “Thank you for the well thought out and reasonable argument.”

    what do you care, you’ve given up.

    Who’s gonna start at point guard and center?

    Farnold/Mayes or Wall
    T. Smith or Cousins

  11. BJD95 01/26/2009 at 5:01 PM #

    How much stock should we put in verbal commitments, anyway?

  12. SEAT.5.F.2 01/26/2009 at 5:15 PM #

    No jokes in this thread. Usually someone throws down something lighthearted to halt the contest of who is going to take his shoe off and wave it the hardest in the UN Chamber.

  13. redfred2 01/26/2009 at 5:42 PM #

    Thanks chop, different outlooks for sure, but the feeling is mutual!

    Some posters on here are comparing football to basketball, and making the point about the huge difference that O-N-E or T-W-O good players can make on a FOOTBALL TEAM that has a FORTY (???) PLUS MAN ROSTER. They are talking about how even A LARGE group of individuals CANNOT COMPENSATE for just ONE or TWO missing, and VERY VITAL, parts. The results on the FOOTBALL FIELD JUST THIS PAST SEASON fully backs their point and the FACT that even a very good, and very experienced Head Coach the calibre of a TOB CANNOT overcome those ONE or TWO missing elements.

    Which makes perfectly GOOD sense to me, and it should to anyone else who is willing stop and think about it for even a split second.

    Yet others, are on here comparing just the coaches, and the job that TOB is doing in comparison to Sidney Lowe’s performance thus far.

    Which is completely asinine.

    TOB is in Raleigh, and thank God and the fan$$$ for that. You surely don’t need to waste your time thinking that NC State itself, was instrumental, or is even worthy of having him here.

    As for Lowe, complain about him all you want. I have been steadily warning people that no matter how many “consecutive appearances” we had been squeaking out in recent years, that this BB program was being led away and slipping further and further down and away from the level of competition that it IS INTENDED to compete with.

    Well folks, here we are, three years removed, and we are just now and finally, bottoming out from the ill-advised path to nowhere that NCSU’s BB program has been led down. No matter how you approach it, or from which direction you look at it, if YOU ARE REALLY THINKING when you are pondering it, Sidney Lowe is now the Men’s Head BB Coach at NC State University, and he is ONLY here because of what NC State is, and what it has become, and nothing else.

    Have at it, jump all over the man if you will.

  14. happypackdad 01/26/2009 at 5:42 PM #

    ^ all verbals seem solid right now

  15. BJD95 01/26/2009 at 5:50 PM #

    When you really think about it, “One Night in Bangkok” was the best song ever written about chess. We can all agree about that, right?

    Or I could start quoting Walter Sobchak, if that helps lighten the mood. “Say what you will about the tenets of national socialism, but at least it’s an ethos.”

  16. redfred2 01/26/2009 at 6:07 PM #

    Bought some powdered water the other day…didn’t know quite what to mix it with.

  17. Rochester 01/26/2009 at 6:30 PM #

    happypackdad, what is the secret to your lack of bitterness? How long have you been a Wolfpack fan that this hasn’t gotten to you yet?

  18. Wulfpack 01/26/2009 at 6:32 PM #

    happypackdad, as far as I am concerned, this Wolfpack team has given up on me. No excuse for coming out like a girls JV team Saturday.

  19. Rick 01/26/2009 at 6:40 PM #

    “happypackdad, what is the secret to your lack of bitterness? How long have you been a Wolfpack fan that this hasn’t gotten to you yet?”

    I believe we might be seeing the re-emergence of Cedargrove wolf

  20. MrPlywood 01/26/2009 at 6:42 PM #

    Maybe the ACC should start a Premier League relegation/promotion deal with the Southern Conference. State, VA and GT move down this year, while Davidson and Charleston move up…

  21. Alpha Wolf 01/26/2009 at 6:52 PM #

    ^ Not so fast, Charleston just lost to The Citadel.

  22. redfred2 01/26/2009 at 7:07 PM #

    Rochester,

    I don’t know about happypackdad, but I try to look at the entire picture, why we’re here and what it all means, and then I can lighten up a little while giving Sidney Lowe, or anyone who is there for that matter, a little leeway for stepping in and at least TRYING to straighten out this terribly mismanaged mess for all concerned.

    I won’t lie though, I did expect more by now. Not in the way of wins so much, eventhough that is BAAAD right now no doubt, but more in the way of someone who would make it top priority to return the spirit and pride in the honor of wearing an NC State BB uniform.

    Sendek definitely missed the boat on that, and Lowe isn’t setting ANYTHING on fire either, not yet anyway, and that window is beginning to close for him as well.

  23. blackdom 01/26/2009 at 7:42 PM #

    Gottfried resigned at Bama under pressuse Tide has not made tourney in 2 yrs

  24. choppack1 01/26/2009 at 8:03 PM #

    But see, here’s the thing, the last 2 years, TOB has chosen to redshirt a freshman for the long term good of the program (last year Russell Wilson, this year Sean Glennon)…simply not an issue in baskeball.

    I think it’s a good point about the difference 2 guys can make on a football roster when comparing it to a 13 man roster, but in both sports we were only a couple of players away. In football, we’ve got some of those players, in basketball, we’re still searching.

  25. redfred2 01/26/2009 at 8:10 PM #

    Again chop, experience and the connections that come from ALREADY being in the field for YEARS.

    It’s not an excuse, but it’s not Sidney Lowe’s fault either, it is NC State’s.

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