Four Tiers in ACC Hoops

08-09 Basketball131

After today’s action, all ACC teams have played 5 or 6 league games. It seems to me that some symmetry is starting to emerge. You can categorize these teams in the following groups of three:

Tier I (Excellent) – Duke, UNC, Wake Forest. All of these teams are legitimate Final Four contenders. Once the polls come out, Duke will ascend to #1 nationally, meaning that 3 Tobacco Road programs will have held down the top spot this season. So much for the “but there’s no room at the top with UNC and Duke down the road!” theory. If the small private school in Winston-Salem can do it, there’s no excuse for the large state university in Raleigh to accept second-class status.

Tier II (Good) – Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami. All of these teams should make the NCAA tourney, and I could see each of them reaching the Sweet Sixteen. As I predicted before ACC play started, Virginia Tech has indeed shaken off its typical December struggles, landing impressive road wins against Miami and then #1 Wake Forest. It’s not a talented enough group to compete for the league title, but as usual, Basketball Grobe is getting the most out of what he’s got. Miami’s loss to the Hokies assures they will come into Raleigh hungry on Tuesday night – lucky us.

Tier III (Mediocre) – Florida State, Maryland, Boston College. Meet your NIT and CBI participants. These teams are all fundamentally flawed and, especially in BC’s case, very inconsistent. These teams are very glad for the heavily populated league cellar. This tier also contains two fairly hot seats (those belonging to Leonard Hamilton and Gary Williams). It’s not comforting that NC State has suffered two double digit losses to Tier III opponents.

Tier IV (Shitty) NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech. The largest dropoff in quality is between Tiers III and IV. These teams have beaten nobody but each other. No team has a realistic path to any post-season whatsoever. Epic meltdowns and uninspired play are hallmarks of Tier IV. Paul Hewitt saved his job (barring a league first 0-16 season) by signing Derrick Favors, and Sidney Lowe works for Lee Fowler. Dave Leitao has no such life raft available.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

131 Responses to Four Tiers in ACC Hoops

  1. DFMo 01/26/2009 at 1:02 PM #

    “It’s not just BB, NC State Athletics SUCK OUT LOUD as a whole.”

    Here’s your current report card:

    http://www.theacc.com/this-is/accstandings.html

    Lee, tell me you are proud of that. I can see SNL doing a “Really?/Really!” segment on NCSU Athletics.

  2. packalum44 01/26/2009 at 1:04 PM #

    I’ve made it known since the Davidson game that I think Lowe is a poor coach. He lost us that game. He has had ample time to make our team better. He may or may not be good at Xs and Os but he has proven that he is not a very good coach. Our players do not play to their potential. Its quite simple and obvious to me.

  3. Gene 01/26/2009 at 1:11 PM #

    “one other issue i wanted to speak about was in regard to sids first year, with that great run at the ACC tourny…etc. i tend to think engan(sp?) atsur coached/led the team 10x more that sid did. he played with his heart on fire and ran that offence, not sid.”

    I remember Sid’s first year and first visit to Chapel Hill. We were down by one at the half and right in it with a good Carolina squad, who we beat in Raleigh.

    Sid goes to the hospital due to the flu / exhaustion, and we go into a nose dive in the second half. Monte just couldn’t make the in-game adjustments Sid did in the first and in Raleigh.

    Atsur was a fantastic floor leader that year. We have two inexperienced PG’s = Degand missed most of last year, so he’s not much better than a freshman. If we had a four year starter at PG, who had Atsur’s leadership qualities, we’d be talking about ACC titles and NCAA tournament seeding.

    I think Lowe’s biggest mistake is under or over estimating how self motivated players are at this level and not cracking the whip after year one. He really didn’t realize how much of a leader Atsur was off the court, until it was too late.

    If we can get some leadership on the floor, someone who we trust with the ball in their hands in the final minutes – like Atsur, Gainey and Grundy – I really think we’d be in Tier II right now.

    I think Mays can develop into that type of leader and maybe even Degand, but they are still very inexperienced.

    “LARRY HARRIS is a good recruiter”

    Eh…Herb had some awful recruiting classes sandwiched in between a few good ones. 2001 was great. 2002 and 2003 were non-existent. 2004 and 2005 were good. 2006, even before it fell apart, wasn’t gang busters unbelievable.

    Harris is a good recruiter, but the head coach has some influence on pulling guys in or else we’d be a lot more talented than we are right now.

  4. blackdom 01/26/2009 at 1:30 PM #

    ^ I was at the unc game as well Grant and Atsur carried us untill they both got into foul trouble in the 2nd half. It had nothing to do with Sid leaving or lack of adjustments.
    I also believe our run in sid’s first year had more to do with Atsur than the Red Jacket.

  5. Noah 01/26/2009 at 1:32 PM #

    People are welcome to their own opinion and I’m trying to be as respectful as I can…but I don’t understand the “Sid gets five years” thing.

    I didn’t need five years to see Les Robinson was a sorry coach. I don’t need five years to see that Lowe doesn’t know what he’s doing either. I’ve never heard ONE person say, “Sidney Lowe is doing a great job. He really knows how to build a program.” The kindest things I’ve heard can be translated as, “Sidney Lowe doesn’t know WHAT he’s doing. But maybe if we wait long enough, he’ll learn the difference between his *** and a hole in the ground.”

    (Okay, it can probably be translated kinder than that)

    Sidney Lowe didn’t know that strength and conditioning programs were important. YOU did. How the heck didn’t he?

    Sidney Lowe didn’t know how to repair a fracture in his team last year. Okay, do you NOT think that’s something that will come up again? Twelve disparate kids come together at one university to perform in a high-stress environment. Think a little group dynamics might come into play?

    Lowe didn’t know the difference between an ACC caliber player and a DIII player. Lowe didn’t know how to allocate scholarships. Lowe doesn’t know how to build a rotation. Lowe doesn’t know how to motivate his players. And then he goes into his post-game and spends all of his time talking about how HE had a great gameplan, the players just screwed it up.

    If you can’t get a grip on the EASY parts of being a coach, why do I need to wait around to see if you can handle the really tough parts? I think I already have my answer.

    What are you guys expecting to see over the next two years that will turn everyone around? We lose Costner, McCauley and Fells this year. We are adding a couple of players who will probably develop into decent players…but who probably aren’t going to be ready to carry us from day one.

    The defense of Sidney Lowe basically falls into one of three groups:

    1) You can’t fire Sid!! No one will want this job if we do!!!

    Okay, this is absurd. Let’s say you make $50,000 a year. Some guy shows up and says, “I like the way you do your job. Come do it for me at my superfancy high-tech office park and I’ll give you $500,000 a year.” If you were confident in your abilities, are you REALLY going to spend much time thinking about the guy who had the job before you?

    I think college basketball coaches are largely aware that they will get fired if they put up three crappy years in a row. I doubt that would come as a shock to any of them. The cat’s out of the bag.

    2) Sid’s an alum! He loves this school!

    Actually, he’s an alum of some online community college up in Virginia, isn’t he? Secondly, who gives a crap? A lot of people love NC State and I wouldn’t hire any of them. Vic Bubas was an alum and loved NC State. Didn’t stop him from doing a great job at Dook. John Wooden went to Purdue. Dean Smith went to Kansas and K went to Army.

    3) NC State just hates winning. It’s not fair to blame Sid for that!

    This is not really a defense, it’s actually psychological deflection. It’s also bullcrap. Lee Fowler is a buffoon. But he doesn’t help the other team score points. James Oblinger’s job is to run the university…ya know, so people can get an education. I seriously hope that he doesn’t spend more than a few seconds a day worrying about Sidney Lowe.

  6. blackdom 01/26/2009 at 1:46 PM #

    I don’t think we have to wait five years with Sid. He has had three and we have not really seen any progress.
    And we should worry about how we would appear nationally if we let Sid go? We are an after thought nationally,we get on national tv when we play unc.
    All I hear is “that Sid can really recruit” . Compare objectively our current underclassman opposed to every other team in the league. We do not match up.

  7. Rick 01/26/2009 at 1:51 PM #

    “At this point, the structural problems in university and athetic department leadership are so great that I’ve pretty much given up hope. I think that Sidney Lowe is doing a poor job, but I can’t get excited about firing him (i.e., re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic).”

    I have given up hope. I also do not send any money their way. Call me a bad fan but I do not encourage incompetence.

  8. McPete 01/26/2009 at 1:52 PM #

    “The biggest haters have never been in a position to hire/fire, therefore, they have zero experience with conducting performance evaluations.
    Amd yet they judge with no talent to judge…”

    BSIE80,
    I’ve never made a movie in my life, or acted in one for that matter. But I know the difference between a good one and a bad one after I watch it. And right now, Wolfpack hoops looks alot like Bill and Ted’s Bogus Journey to me.

  9. choppack1 01/26/2009 at 1:55 PM #

    Noah – one huge difference between Lowe and Les:
    Lowe has shown he can close the deal w/ some good recruits.

    Granted, Les may have had his hands tied by the admin, but he was never able to identify hidden gems or close on known commodities that could have changed his tenure. Lowe has shown the ability to get elite talent to commit to NC State.

    And believe me, if Leslie and Harrow back of their commitments next year, I’m all for lettinig Sid go. However, in a game where talent rules the day and allows for a lot of lapses in X and Os – I think it’s OK to take a chance, especially while Lee and Oblinger are behind the wheel.

  10. happypackdad 01/26/2009 at 2:01 PM #

    can’t believe some have actually given up on the season & on Sid. Sad.

  11. choppack1 01/26/2009 at 2:06 PM #

    red – I don’t always agree w/ you – but I enjoy your posts…they are “big picture” views, but they are very descriptive – and we know where you stand.

  12. BoKnowsNCS71 01/26/2009 at 2:10 PM #

    And (based on their crappy web site) post-Drexler Houston won 11 games in 2001. 10 games in 2002, 11 in 2003, 19 in 2004, 21 in 2005, 16 in 2006. If that was with the same coach it just shows that changing coaches often weakens the team performance (and recruiting).

    The hard part of all this is the crow to swallow. We went to the NCAAT 5 straight years and were never satisfied. Our AD was a buffoon in attempting to hire a new coach and if you look back 3 years many of you folks were there in the stands praising Sid’s selection (see the archives). And lastly, we fans are not patient enough to get in a position to win and for a situation like ours — that will take about 2 more years.

  13. Gene 01/26/2009 at 2:19 PM #

    What’s startling is people, who were “patting Sid” on the back for not finishing dead last, in year one, now want him gone.

    Bleh…we deserve to suck…kill the men’s basketball program or move us to the SoCo…

    On a side note, George Mason has a larger student body than UVa, but they aren’t much in athletics. There’s no reason the biggest school, in a state, like North Carolina needs to compete in basketball or any other sport. We can be another George Mason.

    Less aggravation for fans.

  14. BJD95 01/26/2009 at 2:20 PM #

    Noah – Oblinger doesn’t need to think about Sid, but he should expect his athletic director to do his job (i.e., proactively manage the department so that it wins games and keeps the alumni happy). Success in athetics is beneficial for the university as an academic institution.

    I suspected Les wasn’t going to do well after his first season (should have done more with Fire and Ice as seniors). By this point in his 3rd season (my Sophomore year at State), I was certain that we had a buffoon at the helm. Remember when he told the N&O that Chuck Kornegay had better grades than he had when he was a student? Les got 3+ more seasons anyway, and Turner would have given him more.

    Lowe is not in Les Robinson territory yet, but he’s way too damned close for comfort. And being better than Les is certainly not the barometer for what should be acceptable at NC State.

  15. pakfanistan 01/26/2009 at 2:22 PM #

    Gene,

    George Mason went to the final four. At this point, I would LOVE to be George Mason.

    Problem is we’re Perry Mason.

  16. Noah 01/26/2009 at 2:31 PM #

    Les Robinson brought in top-100 recruits in Mark Davis (65), Lakista McCuller (98 — yes, really), Kornegay (top 25), Marcus Wilson (top-50) and Todd Fuller (top 50) and had another commitment from Jason Sasser…except we ran out of scholarships. Stupid Victor Newman…

    NC State will largely recruit itself. Herb Sendek had plenty of recruiting successes too (if you count signing top-100 players a “success”). I would imagine that ANY coach hired at NC State will continue to have those same successes.

    Regardless, we are hiring a coach for the next 20 years. Worrying about one single class seems rather silly to me.

  17. choppack1 01/26/2009 at 2:31 PM #

    Yep BJD – folks often forget that Les voluntarily resigned. That’s right – he left on his own accord.

    Like you, I began to wonder that first year. I was actually worried before hand about his ability to teach D. His ETSU had beaten V, but we’d scored like 88 points in the process. Like it or not, in the ACC, unless you have incredible talent, you need to be able to defend…and you can actually get away w/ being mediocre on offense, if you can defend and rebound – that’s what UVa did every year during Jeff Jones’ tenure.

  18. Rick 01/26/2009 at 2:44 PM #

    “The hard part of all this is the crow to swallow. We went to the NCAAT 5 straight years and were never satisfied.”

    What crow is there to eat? We were not satisfied because they results were not acceptable. If Lowe does poorly it does not mean we should have kept Sendek it just means we (by we I mean the walking talking embodiment of ignorance that is Lee Fowler) made a bad hire

  19. Gene 01/26/2009 at 2:53 PM #

    packfanistan, that’s why I say we move to the SoCo. We can compete with those teams and maybe make a spirited run to the Final Four, once in our lifetime.

    We don’t have to worry about our basketball team or how we suck compared to Wake, UNC-Ch and Duke. It won’t matter.

  20. Rochester 01/26/2009 at 2:59 PM #

    can’t believe some have actually given up on the season

    If by “give up” you mean we’ve realized we’re not making the NCAA Tournament, then, yeah, the rest of us have given up. As the old saying goes, wish in one hand, sh*t in the other and see which one fills up faster. This team has taken a big dump in our hand.

    I totally agree with Noah’s third point above. So Fowler is a buffoon (I think most of us are in agreement with that). Once the head coach is in place, Fowler’s buffoonery really ought not have much *direct* impact on the results of the basketball team. Unless he’s recruiting Marques Johnson and telling Sid when to roll the “red” team out on the floor, our crap performance this year isn’t really his fault any more, aside from him having hired someone unqualified to be our coach. (In this sense, every single loss is partially his fault, but he’s not impeding the coaching staff from coaching. He just put in place a coaching staff that’s apparently not capable at this point of successfully coaching.)

  21. happypackdad 01/26/2009 at 3:18 PM #

    “give up” meaning no support only bashing, booing at games, crying on radio shows, etc…

  22. BJD95 01/26/2009 at 3:26 PM #

    One man’s “bashing” is another’s “logical evaluation.” The negative conclusions are pretty inescapable at this point.

    NCAAT? Hell, I’ve pretty much given up on the NIT.

  23. Rochester 01/26/2009 at 3:29 PM #

    I still watch every game, for whatever reason, and being out of state that involves paying extra for ESPN Full Court. I still hang my NC State flag on game days. I still wear my NC State gear on game days. By those measures I haven’t “given up.” I don’t expect us to win very often any more, though, so by that measure I’ve “given up.”

    I wouldn’t boo at a game, because I just wouldn’t boo a Wolfpack player, but something about this program deserves a big boo right about now.

  24. choppack1 01/26/2009 at 3:35 PM #

    hpd – since 1990, no matter whom the coach was at NC State, fans have been told to quit whining and stop being so durn negative.

    There are times when that makes sense. For example, if you were criticizing TOB this year and saying, “We’ll never be good” – well, I think that was silly.

    Unfortunately, Sidney has one more full season at his HC position that TOB does. Unfortunately, Sidney does not have the track record that TOB does.

    There are times when a collective fanbase should be told to zip it. However, if stating facts bothers folks, then a better argument isn’t “stop whining” – it’s giong after the statements w/ some opposing facts.

    The best argument in Lowe’s favor right now is that he’s recruiting well…he has LOIs or verbal commitments from 5 players who could change the direction of NC State basketball – much like the 2001-2002 freshman class did at NC State. Losing either one of those classes COULD set our program back a few years.

  25. happypackdad 01/26/2009 at 3:48 PM #

    facts are one thing. Constant bi*ching & moaning is tiresome & useless.

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