BJD’s Revised and Extended 1/4/09 Basketball Program Thoughts

08-09 Basketball NCS Basketball Sidney Lowe108

After yesterday’s predictable, yet still somehow heartbreaking loss to Florida, all that remains is ACC play (barring a shocking loss to NC Central, which is currently 0-16 and 347th out of 347 teams in the Sagarin ratings). Here is a run down of what we do and don’t know:

1) NC State will compete with, but rarely beat, midrange opponents. We have “comps” to evaluate here – Davidson, Marquette, and Florida (currently 20, 31, and 33 in Sagarin, respectively). These are the teams that will compete for NCAA berths, but probably not with anything higher than a 6 or 7 seed. Who is in this category? I would say Miami (27), Maryland (32), Virginia Tech (74), and Florida State (45). The Hokies’ Sagarin is well below the other three, but VT has a clear pattern of poor December play followed up by significantly improved ACC performance. Wolfpack nation’s collective heart thanks the Almighty that we only play 5 games against the ACC’s second tier (home and away vs. Miami, home only vs. Florida State and Maryland, away only vs. Virginia Tech). BJD’s Predicted Wins: 1 or 2

2) We have no idea how badly the elite teams will beat NC State. Simply put, we haven’t played anybody in the class of the ACC’s first tier: UNC (1), Clemson (4), Duke (3), or Wake Forest (8). Did you know that the ACC boasts three of the top four teams in the Sagarin ratings? You do now. We are extremely lucky to play Duke and Clemson only once, and each time on the road – a home game would be a wasted opportunity, since we would lose 99 times out of 100 to these teams regardless of location. The real mystery here is how badly the Pack loses – could be by 10, 20, or 40. Our only prayer against UNC is mercy, which Roy Williams (who endearingly treats us like a hated rival) is not likely to dish out. Your one ray of hope is the 2/11 home date against Wake Forest – I’m still not convinced that the Deacons are that good. BJD’s Predicted Wins: 0 or 1

3) Thank God for scheduling within the lower tier. Misery loves company, and the 80th-rated Wolfpack has some this year: Boston College (60), Virginia (102), and Georgia Tech (114). Much like I expect VT’s to play above its current rating in ACC play, I expect BC to perform worse – there’s no reason to expect the Eagles to be any better than they were last year (and their schedule has been almost as weak as ours). These loveable losers constitute NC State’s peer group. Thanks to wretched scheduling, NC State hasn’t played anyone in this range (the closest being #145 East Carolina). Extrapolating what we’ve seen so far, and considering the fact that the Pack plays all Tier Three foes at home (plus road games at BC and GT), we can cautiously project winning most of these games. BJD’s Predicted Wins: 3 or 4

4) Overall, the NIT is (as it has always been) NC State’s ceiling. Applying my model, you could get anything from 4 to 7 ACC wins, although I don’t expect the full best or worst case scenario to happen. Thus, you get a 5-11 (NIT/CBI bubble) or 6-10 (solid NIT) ACC record. The Pack has no shot at the post-season with a 4-12 or worse ACC record, and Sidney Lowe would not be positioned well for the crucial 2009-10 season.

5) Timing is everything. This would be a good year to play UNC early again, and get that embarrassment over with. But we don’t “get” to play the Holes until January 31. Why, you ask? Because NC State’s only playable off guard is Trevor Ferguson, projected to miss 3-6 weeks after the 12/22 game against Marquette. That puts his return somewhere between January 12 and February 2. Between those 2 dates, NC State plays six ACC games, including winnable games against Florida State (home), Georgia Tech (home), Boston College (away), and Miami (home). Needless to say, there is a big difference in starting ACC play 3-4 rather than 1-6 or 0-7.

6) Go back and re-read my “baby steps” post for my suggestions on how to evaluate this basketball season. For the more pessimistic folks out there, I will acknowledge that a collapse is more likely than a “great leap forward” beyond the baby steps of progress that I currently see and expect.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball NCS Basketball Sidney Lowe

108 Responses to BJD’s Revised and Extended 1/4/09 Basketball Program Thoughts

  1. redfred2 01/06/2009 at 12:45 PM #

    “Contrary to Redfred, I think the NC State job is one of the great jobs in all of college basketball, and I see nothing wrong or unrealistic with a return to the national prominence we enjoyed for the first forty years of the ACC.”

    You sir, have got to be new around here.

    All of the things that I have been harping on for years around here, were because I, REDFRED, saw the writing on the wall. I saw that the former glory was being pushed further and further away, and slipping away right along with it was any ability of ever regaining that status. That’s why I’ve never shut up or backed down over the years.

    I saw it coming, it’s here, and NOW all of a sudden, you people want to jump up and blame it ALL on one person, and a Johnny come lately at that.

    It is unfair, and it is blatantly ignorant to boot.

    Just to add, my opinion of “this job”, as in the HC job at NC State University, it SHOULD BE, and ALWAYS SHOULD HAVE BEEN, one of the top six or seven most sought after HC’ing positions in the entire nation. But, and as we all know, it has been reduced to just an afterthought and another in the blur of university BB programs who are more than willing to bow down and concede, and who are happy as clams to just make a good showing every once in awhile.

    That’s why I’ve never gone along with the crowd, and these hard times RIGHT NOW, are why I have no regrets for saying anything that I’ve BEEN SAYING all along.

  2. kyjelly 01/07/2009 at 8:40 AM #

    Sorry Redfred I was away and could not respond not sure what you are getting at with your herbS reverence???

  3. redfred2 01/07/2009 at 5:06 PM #

    ky, you guys keep harping about our guards, you know, the ones that Lowe brought in on very short notice, and acting as if this is the very FIRST TIME any NC State coach has made a mistake in regards to personnel/recruiting. Some are also acting as if NC State has been rich with talented point guards forever, and trying to make it sound as if Sidney Lowe somehow suddenly messed up the constant flow of talent. Again, you know, all of those PG’s that have never materalized in the past, just like the ones that you guys are trying make it sound like have ALWAYS been just dying to their toes in door, and yearning to play for just for NC State, and no one else.

    Yep, it’s all Sidney Lowe’s fault. He sure did mess up all of that good fortune we’ve had at the PG position.

    Oh, sorry, allow me to explain the word “position” in BB, that’s where certain players who have certain physical attributes along with varying skillsets are generally “positioned” on the BB court. Hence the word “position”, it just kind evolved that way over the years. Maybe not at NC State, but it did at other places anyway. I think you get my drift, don’t you, I think???

  4. kyjelly 01/08/2009 at 8:42 AM #

    rf2 I know all about the problems of recruiting,s it is a crap shoot and will give Sid a pass as well about his late hire . My problem is not with his recruiting but his overall coaching ,teaching this is what as a coach translates into what you see on the court. My biggest problem with his recruiting at the point guard “position” is why bring in a so-called blue chip big man like JJ when you do not have a player in “position” that can get hime the ball! I think we could have done a hell of a lot better than Javi or M Johnson if he had only a week to recruit.
    My concern and problem with our basketball program has to do with our lack of fundamentals,we constantly get killed of the boards,we don’t block out etc etc. We from what I have seen have no offensive system what so ever. It entails more times than not one “position” player dribbling east to west with the other 4 “position ” players watching him?
    We still don’t have out of bounds plays it is an adventure each and everytime we take the ball out under pressure.
    On “D” we are playing man ,and we don’t have man personal we made Fla look like olympic sprinters the way they blew by us constantly.
    Also can you explain why Smith after scoring 31 the game before getting less minutes in favor of Harris it makes no sense.

    I would like to see a winning program of course but effort would be just as nice. I do not know what goes on at practice or behind the scenes. As a basketball coach your work goes out on the floor for all to see that is how a coach is judged.
    I am sure as we all are this is Sids job for as long as he wants ,all I want is some sign that this thing is heading the right way. I have not seen it yet that is all.

  5. redfred2 01/08/2009 at 12:49 PM #

    ky, I don’t have time to reply right now, but please keep checking back on this thread, I’ll definitely get back to you. 😉

  6. Gene 01/08/2009 at 12:52 PM #

    “I think we could have done a hell of a lot better than Javi or M Johnson if he had only a week to recruit.”

    Depends what time of year it is. After winter most of the good players are signed up with other schools.

    On a side note, some players were never meant to play or expect to contribute as freshman. I cited the example of Q. Thomas at Carolina, recently, as someone who’d have been a disaster if he was their starting PG as a freshman.

    Javi was brought in for depth and forced to start. He did the best he could. Plenty of schools, even good schools, have Javi’s on their roster, but are fortunate enough to not have to have them start as true freshman.

    M. Johnson was a bad use of a scholarship, but he’s not here still sucking up that scholly.

    “I guess my greater point is that if we have to choose one or the other, we should probably go w/ a big man. ”

    Thanks for the clarification choppack1. I got the feeling you were implying we have lots of depth at the 4/5 this year and somehow next year will be appreciably worse.

  7. redfred2 01/09/2009 at 6:20 PM #

    ky, there is admittedly, or rather was, a funk surrounding MOST of the team when JJ Hickson was here. NOTE: I said MOST of the team. What I don’t understand is how you guys are so hard while focusing ONLY on the very inexperienced players on the team. Do not forget that there WERE OTHER players who did have EXPERIENCE, out there on the same court and SUPPOSEDLY playing BB “for” NC STATE and “with” JJ HICKSON.

    I didn’t see those older players playing for NC State either though, and even more telling, I DID NOT see them playing BB just for the game itself, or showing any real pride on the court, or playing hard just because they wanted to get better and better for themselves. I don’t know how you change that self-motivation in an individual, or within a group of individuals, but eitherway, it is something that is Sidney Lowe is learning something about as we speak.

    As far as the overall coaching, and the fundamentals, I certainly expected to see more improvement in those areas myself. And I do agree that it is VERY frustrating to watch things that seem to be very correctable, but they continue to crop up game after game.

    I’ve been watching NC State BB for a loooong time, AND, I have been LOUDLY harping about fundamentals like blocking out and rebounding for MUCH, MUUUUCH longer than just the three years since Sidney Lowe arrived on the scene. That is still no excuse for our present plight, or for the current coaching staff either, they do need to totally concentrate on pounding very basic BB skills into these player’s heads.

    BUT, and with all of that said, there is NO DOUBT WHATSOEVER that this is/was a VERY unusual head coaching hire for sure. AND, IF there are still people out there, besides just myself, who believe that Lowe might actually be able to make this thing work after getting more time in the saddle, and also after adding some fresh faces to his roster, then we, or is it me?, are just going to have to watch and WAIT somewhat patiently as this unusual coaching situation grows into it’s potential.

    I have my own personal reasons for badly wanting this thing to work out, but I’m generally an optimist either way, so what else can I say?

  8. kyjelly 01/09/2009 at 11:17 PM #

    ^ Very true about the others not fitting in as well ,but a so called chemistry problem on a team falls on the coach’s lap. He has to make all the parts fit and if it does not ,than addition by subtraction is the way to go and you move on. Also you sent a message to all concerned.
    In Sids first season when we went on that nice run we were led by Astur ,Ben and Costner. Astur graduated and Costner and Ben suffered the most with the addition of JJ. Sid brought JJ in he knew what he was getting it is his and his staffs job to make all the pieces fit.JJ I am sure one day will turn into the player we were all led to believe we were getting last season. I thought he fell short of the hype,whether it was his fault,Bens fault,Grants fault who knows? The only one who has not been accountable for anything that went on in that sad season last year was Sid himself. In fact he started the chemistry rumor before the last game of the season last year. Leadership starts at the top always. IMHO I think what Sid needs is a strong Xs and O guy as an Asst.
    I want us to succeed as well badly and I admire all that are so optimistic I wish I could be. But to be number 5 or number 2 on a recruits list means you lose so I don’t take all that much faith in Wall or Favors ,nor should a coach you have to work with what you have. Sid is not going anywhere and I too wish we were still playing at Reynolds because another year or two like last that RBC center will be echoing.
    But like you rf I hope we do well and I will be the first to say I was wrong about Sid.But again I am not all optimistic about that.

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