BJD’s Revised and Extended 1/4/09 Basketball Program Thoughts

08-09 Basketball NCS Basketball Sidney Lowe108

After yesterday’s predictable, yet still somehow heartbreaking loss to Florida, all that remains is ACC play (barring a shocking loss to NC Central, which is currently 0-16 and 347th out of 347 teams in the Sagarin ratings). Here is a run down of what we do and don’t know:

1) NC State will compete with, but rarely beat, midrange opponents. We have “comps” to evaluate here – Davidson, Marquette, and Florida (currently 20, 31, and 33 in Sagarin, respectively). These are the teams that will compete for NCAA berths, but probably not with anything higher than a 6 or 7 seed. Who is in this category? I would say Miami (27), Maryland (32), Virginia Tech (74), and Florida State (45). The Hokies’ Sagarin is well below the other three, but VT has a clear pattern of poor December play followed up by significantly improved ACC performance. Wolfpack nation’s collective heart thanks the Almighty that we only play 5 games against the ACC’s second tier (home and away vs. Miami, home only vs. Florida State and Maryland, away only vs. Virginia Tech). BJD’s Predicted Wins: 1 or 2

2) We have no idea how badly the elite teams will beat NC State. Simply put, we haven’t played anybody in the class of the ACC’s first tier: UNC (1), Clemson (4), Duke (3), or Wake Forest (8). Did you know that the ACC boasts three of the top four teams in the Sagarin ratings? You do now. We are extremely lucky to play Duke and Clemson only once, and each time on the road – a home game would be a wasted opportunity, since we would lose 99 times out of 100 to these teams regardless of location. The real mystery here is how badly the Pack loses – could be by 10, 20, or 40. Our only prayer against UNC is mercy, which Roy Williams (who endearingly treats us like a hated rival) is not likely to dish out. Your one ray of hope is the 2/11 home date against Wake Forest – I’m still not convinced that the Deacons are that good. BJD’s Predicted Wins: 0 or 1

3) Thank God for scheduling within the lower tier. Misery loves company, and the 80th-rated Wolfpack has some this year: Boston College (60), Virginia (102), and Georgia Tech (114). Much like I expect VT’s to play above its current rating in ACC play, I expect BC to perform worse – there’s no reason to expect the Eagles to be any better than they were last year (and their schedule has been almost as weak as ours). These loveable losers constitute NC State’s peer group. Thanks to wretched scheduling, NC State hasn’t played anyone in this range (the closest being #145 East Carolina). Extrapolating what we’ve seen so far, and considering the fact that the Pack plays all Tier Three foes at home (plus road games at BC and GT), we can cautiously project winning most of these games. BJD’s Predicted Wins: 3 or 4

4) Overall, the NIT is (as it has always been) NC State’s ceiling. Applying my model, you could get anything from 4 to 7 ACC wins, although I don’t expect the full best or worst case scenario to happen. Thus, you get a 5-11 (NIT/CBI bubble) or 6-10 (solid NIT) ACC record. The Pack has no shot at the post-season with a 4-12 or worse ACC record, and Sidney Lowe would not be positioned well for the crucial 2009-10 season.

5) Timing is everything. This would be a good year to play UNC early again, and get that embarrassment over with. But we don’t “get” to play the Holes until January 31. Why, you ask? Because NC State’s only playable off guard is Trevor Ferguson, projected to miss 3-6 weeks after the 12/22 game against Marquette. That puts his return somewhere between January 12 and February 2. Between those 2 dates, NC State plays six ACC games, including winnable games against Florida State (home), Georgia Tech (home), Boston College (away), and Miami (home). Needless to say, there is a big difference in starting ACC play 3-4 rather than 1-6 or 0-7.

6) Go back and re-read my “baby steps” post for my suggestions on how to evaluate this basketball season. For the more pessimistic folks out there, I will acknowledge that a collapse is more likely than a “great leap forward” beyond the baby steps of progress that I currently see and expect.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball NCS Basketball Sidney Lowe

108 Responses to BJD’s Revised and Extended 1/4/09 Basketball Program Thoughts

  1. Wolf Dog 01/05/2009 at 12:44 PM #

    I never thought we were a quick fix. Took Sendek 6 years to get us back to the NCAA. I figured it would take 3-5 years for Lowe to get us back to NCAA. Lowe is building a recruiting base, something Sendek didn’t do. I think Sid is getting us back on track. We’ve lost three close games to decent teams. Even UNX just lost to a marginal BC team. The games we lost could have easily gone the other way and everybody be singing Sid’s praises right now. I do like the fact that we seem to be getting better as the season goes along. Costner gets better every week.

    Change of coaches cost us 1 recruiting year. Chemistry issues were there before Sid came in, does anyone not remember Sendek’s last team? That team had no life at the ACC tournament that year. Guys like Wall were giving Sendek and us no thoughts at all. Sid has increased our recruting abiltiy amoung a wider and more talented base of recruits. And we have a great recruiting class that still might even get better coming in next year.

    I think we need to give it some time still. I think we on an upward swing. The way I look at it is, Sid is proving he can recruit! We give him time to coach them. if it don’t work out at least we got talent on the roster for the nx guy to coach them. So I see promoting our team and supporting Sid right now as our best approach. Amazing when Sid was hired, it was his ability to recruit that had most people worried. No one doubted he could coach or that he didn’t know his X’s and O’s. Now that he is showing he can recruit lets see what he can do. It seems you guys beign too hard on Sid right now. Lets face it he rebuilding so our program can be a great program, previously we had a coach and program that in our best year we would be 10-6 in conference. And I think everyone including Sendek knew he was not going to survive the clear couple of rebuilding years he was facing so he left. So Sid got stuck with the rebuilding and I think he’s on track.

  2. kyjelly 01/05/2009 at 1:31 PM #

    ^ class of 89 ……..Did Sid have a back up plan for JJ leaving??? And until you get these kids to actually show up in school anyone can say such and such is thinking about coming here.

  3. Classof89 01/05/2009 at 2:14 PM #

    ^Everybody who was paying attention knew that Hickson was a one and done player. My comments about Wall were directed at all on here who seem to think the fact that we are on his final five list actually amounts to a hill of beans or says something about the future of our program…and the fact that I haven’t seen any other PG on our recruiting board for next year whose name I actually recognize…

  4. choppack1 01/05/2009 at 3:26 PM #

    Class of 89 – if we have fall back recruits – they should probably be used on the 4 and 5 spot, since we are a couple of breaks away from being VERY short-handed at these positions.

    For PG for 09 – I think it’s John Wall or bust. We’ve got a promising PG for 10 – and we’ve got 2 guards coming w/ this year’s class. This means that next year, we’ll have the following “guards” in the program:
    1) Ferguson
    2) Degand
    3) Javi
    4) Mays
    5) Woods
    6) Courtney Brown
    7) Williams* (can also play the 3 spot)
    8) Thomas (probably more of a 3)

    Without Wall, we really don’t need another guard on the roster for now.

    OTOH, for next year, our 4 and 5 spot looks like this:
    1) Costner (who may leave since he will have graduated)
    2) Tracey Smith
    3) Howell (incoming frosh)
    4) Horner (he plays the 3 and 4 spot)

  5. pakfanistan 01/05/2009 at 4:22 PM #

    Sadly, next year we’re going to be running short of quality big men, and we have a log jam of backup quality guards. If that’s not a recipe that says, “strong run in the NIT” then I don’t know what is.

  6. primacyone 01/05/2009 at 4:27 PM #

    Some of you really don’t what you are talking about. REALLY.

    The baketball team is a 1000% better than the football team was through this point in the season.

    http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2008/11/15/and-then-you-win-by-a-little/

  7. Gene 01/05/2009 at 4:27 PM #

    “And until you get these kids to actually show up in school anyone can say such and such is thinking about coming here.”

    Not every program will get the attention of top flight players. Just to get your foot-in-the-door is more than most programs can do. Picking up Hickson on short notice was impressive. Getting Cousins to consider us is also a good sign.

    Being able to now land top 50 talent as a “norm”, like Smith, Howell and Brown is also impressive.

    “For PG for 09 – I think it’s John Wall or bust. ”

    I’m assuming Wall or bust isn’t a terrible strategy. Degand will recover and seems to be competent at PG. Mays can manage as a back up.

    I agree depth at guard won’t be a problem next year and getting Cousins / Favors will be just as critical as getting Wall.

    I think Costner might comeback, since he fell off the NBA radar last year, unless he blows up again in the ACC tourney and any postseason play we might be in, in March.

  8. redfred2 01/05/2009 at 4:27 PM #

    This is hilarious.

    So, from what you’re saying about not having any great PG prospects completely nailed down, and signed to play with the Wolfpack, I’m guessing that both Classof89 and KYjelly were right up there at the very front of the line with those of us who thought it was high time for Herb to pick up and move on AFTER A DECADE?

    Am I right in thinking that? If not, then what in the hell are you talking about?

  9. choppack1 01/05/2009 at 4:49 PM #

    “I’m assuming Wall or bust isn’t a terrible strategy. Degand will recover and seems to be competent at PG. Mays can manage as a back up.

    I agree depth at guard won’t be a problem next year and getting Cousins / Favors will be just as critical as getting Wall.”

    I think it’s a good strategy – provided we have a back up plan for big men if we miss out on Cousins and Favors. If there’s an area where we are short on personnel – it’s up front. We only have 3 true front liners for next year. We saw what CAN happen when it looks like you are going to have 4 of them in 06.

  10. redfred2 01/05/2009 at 5:37 PM #

    “he at least brought it back to life. Move on.”

    He did bring it back to life, thump…thump. And he did move on…and after only an entire decade had passed us by.

    So you are absolutely correct my man.

  11. McPete 01/05/2009 at 5:56 PM #

    So what is the back-up plan if we don’t get Favors or Cousins? that would leave us with Tracy Smith (who is a 4 and can’t guard a 5), Richard Howell (whose game looks alot like Smith’s – but can apparently step outside for 12-15 footers) and Horner (who can’t guard a 3, 4, or 5), and Costner (who many are saying will be gone after this year).

    We need a big man bad.

    Ryan Harrow is the 2010 PG that already committed. he has some handles from what i’ve seen on video.

  12. redfred2 01/05/2009 at 6:18 PM #

    My apologies, sorry to fall back into that tired mode.

    But all of these completely negative and biting comments about a guy/coach who was knowingly hired as just what he is. His background has been that of mainly an assistant coach on the professional level. Some of us may have had our rose colored glasses on when he first arrived, but the reality of it all is that the NC State BB program has fallen so low within the ACC, which IS truly the ONLY place where it REALLY matters, and regardless of how many consecutive trips to the Big (now enormous) Dance we have had in recent years, this position was/is so undesireable that no proven, elite HC is/was going to touch it.

    That is where we are now, and that is where Sidney Lowe is now too. He has to try his damnest to continue garner interest in a program that lost all of it’s positives and one that now lacks any innate ability to draw attention to itself.

    So bitch about Sidney Lowe coming here and being the HC all you want, because like I’ve been saying for years and years now, maybe, just maybe, if some others had thought hard enough and seen these times coming, then maybe they would have STOPPED dead in their tracks, after noticing the first signs that this BB program has been lead down the wrong path, and done something before it got to this point.

    Now though, it’s up to one man, and all he is getting is bitched about for saddling up and wading into this mismanaged piece of shit that NC State now calls it’s BB program.

  13. turnoffthetv 01/05/2009 at 6:39 PM #

    BJD- A decent prediction indeed. I think along the same lines.

    I would like to add that I certainly feel a lot better of our chances of winning a few games with Degand and Mays at the point than Javi and M johnson. Also nice to see that Costner and McCauley dont seem to be as clueless and lost as they were last year and have upped their game considerably.

  14. redfred2 01/05/2009 at 8:17 PM #

    Don’t you love it when you type something begging another person to verify their thoughts on an issue, even calling those people by names, and they just ignore it altogether because they cannot come up a sensible answer.

    Then they repeat the same foolish stuff later on down the line, on a different thread, and once again you respond pretty much the same, asking for clarification as you did before and just like back when you didn’t receive an intelligent response the first, second, or fifth time around.

    That’s when the inevidable “let it go”, “move on”, stuff starts cropping up, like you’re the one irritating them. You just gotta love it when that happens.

  15. Wulfpack 01/05/2009 at 8:27 PM #

    We can all talk about and disagree over how we got here and who is really to blame, but it isn’t going to change anything and frankly, it really just doesn’t matter here in 2009.

    If the basketball program is going to change any time soon, there is one man who can make that happen and his name is Sidney Lowe. So far the early returns are shaky, and they’ve been most shaky against our peers in the ACC.

    Sidney has been handed an opportunity. I don’t care how bad the AD is — if Sidney is strong willed enough he should be able to overcome he ineptitude of that position. Frankly, Sidney ought to be grateful LF is such an idiot b/c many other AD’s would have Sid on a very short leash right about now.

    It’s now his time to see to it that Sid takes advantage of the opportunity. Even though we have disappointed and have shunned our tradition for years, it doesn’t change the fact that this is a major job that pays damn good money that plays in the best league in the land which has some of the most loyal fans in the land with one of the best facilities.

    It’s time for him to make something of it. I’m certainly not asking for 3rd place in the ACC or anything this year or even next, but a little respectability would be nice because we’ve lost some of that recently and that’s the only way we can begin to rebuild this thing.

  16. redfred2 01/05/2009 at 8:45 PM #

    Wow Wulfpack, that was almost poetic.

    Funny how you could have said the very same thing about four, five, or even eight or nine years ago, and it would have been just as true.

    But you never did.

  17. Wulfpack 01/05/2009 at 8:57 PM #

    ^”We can all talk about and disagree over how we got here and who is really to blame, but it isn’t going to change anything and frankly, it really just doesn’t matter here in 2009.”

    I’ll say it again, does it really matter? I think it’s fair to say most have dropped it.

  18. redfred2 01/05/2009 at 9:10 PM #

    No matter what anyone says, and no matter who happens to be the current coach, there are many angles that have led to many circumstances which have to be overcome. I see a lot of those circumstances as being unneccessary, and as being negatives in the place of where some positives should have already been built into the program by now, but that’s all water under the bridge.

    It’s this simple for me, considering the events that have gotten where we are today, and with all of the hurdles that I see surrounding the program, I am no more, or less, disappointed in the coaching, the play, or anything else, then I was back before Sidney Lowe arrived.

  19. redfred2 01/05/2009 at 9:42 PM #

    “I’ll say it again, does it really matter? I think it’s fair to say most have dropped it.”

    Wulf, but they haven’t dropped it at all. They are expecting Lowe to bring in top talent like Herb never did, and expecting him to do things that someone else WAS NOT able to do in an entire decade.

    I started to highlight this before my last post…

    “Sidney has been handed an opportunity. I don’t care how bad the AD is — if Sidney is strong willed enough he should be able to overcome he ineptitude of that position.

    Try replacing the name Sidney, with Herb, and see what you get. Now I ask, was Herb ever really able to do that?

    It’s your school, it’s the same school that decided to keep the last coach for as long as they did, and it’s the same school that decided to hire a person from the professional ranks, and a coach with no college coaching experience.

    I’ve said before, I hated the former partly because of a style of play which he couldn’t successfully implement, but he also had an entire decade, and the bar was never raised. And by that, I mean that the bar wasn’t raised by the administration. It was just left alone, looming somewhere right there in the middle, season after season, and everybody in the administration, as well as a lot of fans, seemed perfectly happy with just that.

    So, you and others keep telling me that it isn’t all Herb’s fault, and that’s after a decade in Raleigh? Well, Lowe is following those same footsteps, and it is just year three, and I am telling that is not all Sidney Lowe’s fault. Not right now anyway.

  20. JeremyH 01/06/2009 at 12:02 AM #

    anyone notice similarity between O’Brien’s season and Lowe’s first season? Started terribly, returned a key player in Atsur(Wilson), and finish strong. There is a difference: Wilson should return and Glennon is waiting in the wings. Football expectations will be high next year. Oh and Mack Brown is one lucky SOB.

  21. Wulfpack 01/06/2009 at 7:10 AM #

    I think it’s about time we turn the page and stop the comparisons. I will say it again — it REALLY does not matter. I don’t think Sid is over there sitting in his office wondering how he is doing in comparison to his predecessor and passing blame. Why? Because he knows this is HIS program today and everything he does today has a direct impact on the future of HIS basketball program. I’m not holding him to some gold standard. I expect us to be competitors, not world beaters, and so far we have not competed to my personal expectations. Let the fault lie where ever it may be but that does NOT change the current circumstance or excuse it in my mind in any way.

    Again, maybe we can begin to make some progress if we can turn the page on the past and stop the silly comparisons because they are truly meaningless.

    And Red, if these meager results keep up for another couple of years the simple fact of the matter is that it will be nobody’s fault but Sidney’s fault that he couldn’t get things going. You can’t get rid of “the adminsitration” in one full swooop. It’s here to stay. That’s just the nature of the business. And if Sid can’t do it then it will be somebody else’s mess to clean up. That’s reality.

  22. Gene 01/06/2009 at 7:55 AM #

    “I think it’s a good strategy – provided we have a back up plan for big men if we miss out on Cousins and Favors. If there’s an area where we are short on personnel – it’s up front. We only have 3 true front liners for next year. We saw what CAN happen when it looks like you are going to have 4 of them in 06.”

    We’re really not terribly deep up front this year. McCauley, Costner, Smith, Horner and Harris are the only guys, who can play the 4/5 spot this year, with Harris and Horner, in no way able to really be effective at center.

    Almost no college team is talented and deep at every position and coaches have to adjust for personnel issues, which is what makes the game so interesting.

    “Horner (who can’t guard a 3, 4, or 5)”

    He was huge for us as a freshman and was the only player who decided to honor his commitment to the school, when Herb left. Maybe his numbers weren’t eye popping, but just to have another body to put into the rotation was huge.

    He has his limitations, but without him in the 2006-2007 season we wouldn’t have had the ACC tourney run and the NIT run.

    As long as he plays hard, I’m not going to fault him for whatever physical limitations he has. I only wish he could regain his outside shooting touch, because he had a reputation as a good perimeter shooter coming out of high school.

  23. Packster 01/06/2009 at 9:43 AM #

    It’s pretty clear, our fanbase continues to remain split.

  24. choppack1 01/06/2009 at 9:50 AM #

    Gene – You can’t compare this year to next year. We have no idea what next year will bring. Right now, we have 3 guys who can play 4 and 5 spot effectively. We also have Horner to play some 4 too.

    I guess my greater point is that if we have to choose one or the other, we should probably go w/ a big man. We’ve expended 8 scholarships on folks who can play the 1 or 2 spot – we’ve spent 3 of these on guys who are rarely going to play anything but the one spot – and we’ve got 4 scholarships allocated for the post right now. We are very vulnerable at that spot. If there’s a back-up recruit, it needs to be a post guy right now – because that’s where we’re most shallow.

  25. Classof89 01/06/2009 at 10:54 AM #

    My comments on this and other threads have nothing at all to do with this lingering Sendek debate. For the record, I began thinking Sendek wasn’t the answer in about year 2 or 3, when we lost to an absolutely awful Virginia team (I think this was Pete Gillen’s first year) with only about seven scholarship players, because Herb stuck stubbornly with a man to man defense the entire game, and Virginia’s one decent player torched us for 35 or 40 points (anybody else remember that game?).

    This isn’t brain surgery, people. Even though in general you want to give a guy five years to see if he can get things going, it is usually pretty obvious by year three which way the train is heading–by year three of Sendek’s reign, it was obvious the improvements were going to be nowhere near as fast as we all hoped, and the only reason he didn’t get fired in year five was because we all knew we’d lose Julius Hodge to Syracuse if that happened (sound familiar?)

    For historical comparison purposes: Coach K went 3-11 in the ACC in 1983, his third year (I remember thinking at the time how we’d made a much better pick for coach than Duke did in 1981). The next year, Duke went 7-7 in the ACC, 24-10 overall, and was a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney. By 1986, they were ACC reg. season and tourney champions and made it to the National Championship game. The key difference? In 1983, K’s third season, he had his first outstanding recruiting class–the seniors of that 1986 National runner up squad–on campus as freshmen, and everyone knew that highly talented group of freshmen was going to turn that program around. We aren’t in that same position in Lowe’s third year. Instead of a talented nucleus, we’ve got good players trickling in over the next two years, and unless there is a startling improvement over the next two months, we are looking at a second straight basement finish in the ACC. (for reference, Dean Smith’s first ACC championship, like Coach K’s was also his first final four team–1967, which was Smith’s sixth season, but by his fourth season in 1965, he had a winning record–10-4–in the ACC, and by his third season, UNC was 5th out of 8 teams in the ACC–roughly corresponding to a 7th place finish in today’s ACC.)

    I’m fairly sure Lowe will survive a below 9th place finish in the ACC this year…but will he be around to see CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown playing together if he goes 5-11 or worse in 2010? Contrary to Redfred, I think the NC State job is one of the great jobs in all of college basketball, and I see nothing wrong or unrealistic with a return to the national prominence we enjoyed for the first forty years of the ACC.

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