After yesterday’s predictable, yet still somehow heartbreaking loss to Florida, all that remains is ACC play (barring a shocking loss to NC Central, which is currently 0-16 and 347th out of 347 teams in the Sagarin ratings). Here is a run down of what we do and don’t know:
1) NC State will compete with, but rarely beat, midrange opponents. We have “comps” to evaluate here – Davidson, Marquette, and Florida (currently 20, 31, and 33 in Sagarin, respectively). These are the teams that will compete for NCAA berths, but probably not with anything higher than a 6 or 7 seed. Who is in this category? I would say Miami (27), Maryland (32), Virginia Tech (74), and Florida State (45). The Hokies’ Sagarin is well below the other three, but VT has a clear pattern of poor December play followed up by significantly improved ACC performance. Wolfpack nation’s collective heart thanks the Almighty that we only play 5 games against the ACC’s second tier (home and away vs. Miami, home only vs. Florida State and Maryland, away only vs. Virginia Tech). BJD’s Predicted Wins: 1 or 2
2) We have no idea how badly the elite teams will beat NC State. Simply put, we haven’t played anybody in the class of the ACC’s first tier: UNC (1), Clemson (4), Duke (3), or Wake Forest (8). Did you know that the ACC boasts three of the top four teams in the Sagarin ratings? You do now. We are extremely lucky to play Duke and Clemson only once, and each time on the road – a home game would be a wasted opportunity, since we would lose 99 times out of 100 to these teams regardless of location. The real mystery here is how badly the Pack loses – could be by 10, 20, or 40. Our only prayer against UNC is mercy, which Roy Williams (who endearingly treats us like a hated rival) is not likely to dish out. Your one ray of hope is the 2/11 home date against Wake Forest – I’m still not convinced that the Deacons are that good. BJD’s Predicted Wins: 0 or 1
3) Thank God for scheduling within the lower tier. Misery loves company, and the 80th-rated Wolfpack has some this year: Boston College (60), Virginia (102), and Georgia Tech (114). Much like I expect VT’s to play above its current rating in ACC play, I expect BC to perform worse – there’s no reason to expect the Eagles to be any better than they were last year (and their schedule has been almost as weak as ours). These loveable losers constitute NC State’s peer group. Thanks to wretched scheduling, NC State hasn’t played anyone in this range (the closest being #145 East Carolina). Extrapolating what we’ve seen so far, and considering the fact that the Pack plays all Tier Three foes at home (plus road games at BC and GT), we can cautiously project winning most of these games. BJD’s Predicted Wins: 3 or 4
4) Overall, the NIT is (as it has always been) NC State’s ceiling. Applying my model, you could get anything from 4 to 7 ACC wins, although I don’t expect the full best or worst case scenario to happen. Thus, you get a 5-11 (NIT/CBI bubble) or 6-10 (solid NIT) ACC record. The Pack has no shot at the post-season with a 4-12 or worse ACC record, and Sidney Lowe would not be positioned well for the crucial 2009-10 season.
5) Timing is everything. This would be a good year to play UNC early again, and get that embarrassment over with. But we don’t “get” to play the Holes until January 31. Why, you ask? Because NC State’s only playable off guard is Trevor Ferguson, projected to miss 3-6 weeks after the 12/22 game against Marquette. That puts his return somewhere between January 12 and February 2. Between those 2 dates, NC State plays six ACC games, including winnable games against Florida State (home), Georgia Tech (home), Boston College (away), and Miami (home). Needless to say, there is a big difference in starting ACC play 3-4 rather than 1-6 or 0-7.
6) Go back and re-read my “baby steps” post for my suggestions on how to evaluate this basketball season. For the more pessimistic folks out there, I will acknowledge that a collapse is more likely than a “great leap forward” beyond the baby steps of progress that I currently see and expect.
