BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

First, stop watching this team as if had (or has) a chance to be good. It doesn’t. Whatever long-shot chance NC State ever had went down the drain when we first saw Farnold’s knee in action (he simply can’t cut on it playing defense). Keep in mind that our best guard, by far, is Trevor Ferguson. How can a team be good when that is the case? Depressingly, we received an e-mail last night noting that Trevor broke his arm or wrist during the Marquette game (kudos to him for finishing). UPDATE: Per the N&O’s “ACC Now” blog, Ferguson has a broken bone in his non-shooting hand, and will be out 3-6 weeks. Shit.

So, what do you look for this year? Baby steps. I see them. For the most part, State plays hard for 40 minutes (don’t confuse that with playing well or playing smart). The gameplans make sense, at least to me. There’s just not much we can do when the opposition makes adjustments. Subjectively, I don’t hate watching this team play, and am not embarrassed that they wear the uniform of my alma mater. Couldn’t say that last year.

Is this progress? I think so. We haven’t lost to any crap teams, unlike last year (ECU, New Orleans). We haven’t mailed it in. There’s just no way to do much more than that with the personnel currently in place.

Which leads me to 2009-10. This is when we need to see a great leap forward. We will have much better players in place, and at least one plus player at the guard position (Lorenzo Brown). If Lowe’s gameplans are in fact good, and he’s learned how to reach and motivate college players, then the 2009-10 will win some games, and make the NCAA tournament. Until then, we have to watch games from a different point of view. Take a Xanax if you need one.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

185 Responses to BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

  1. Gene 12/24/2008 at 1:18 PM #

    Not making a ton of assumptions. Smith seems effective, when he’s in and so we shouldn’t have a drop off in production, when McCauley’s gone. Worst case scenario at SG is Fergie starts again. PG will be Mays or Degand, depending on his health. The only question mark is who will replace Fells at SF.

    I just don’t see a reason for all the doom and gloom, especially about the personnel for next year.

    Lets knock on wood, through some salt over our shoulders, and do whatever else we can do to make sure no one gets hurt. Other programs have players going down, but they the depth to make up for whoever goes down.

    We’re just no there yet.

  2. Ed89 12/24/2008 at 1:37 PM #

    While we’re dreaming….

    Starting lineup (and backups) next year (assuming BC leaves):

    1. Wall/Mays
    2. Brown/Fergs
    3. Williams/Wood
    4. Smith/Horner
    5. Favors or Cousins/Howell

    We’d still have Javi, Degand, and Thomas off the bench. I think we’ll be okay this year. We better, as it will influence Wall and Favors.

  3. TheACCForums.com 12/24/2008 at 1:51 PM #

    Could an administrator of this blog please contact me at theaccforums{at}gmail.com regarding a partnership. I have tried to contact you multiple times and have failed.

    Thanks!

  4. Gene 12/24/2008 at 1:59 PM #

    If we can (and that’s still possiblity) land any combination of Wall and Cousins / Favors we’ll get better much more quickly.

  5. choppack1 12/24/2008 at 2:20 PM #

    The best news is that even w/out Wall and/or Favors – we have a nice solid class coming in who should provide some scoring, athleticism and depth immediately. Whether they can lead us to .500 record in the ACC is another story.

  6. Afterglow 12/24/2008 at 2:46 PM #

    What if the following happened THIS YEAR:
     We play sound fundamentally
     Mays has a break out year
     Costner stays hot
     McCauley finds his groove
     We start to believe that it is our right to win
     We play solid defense
     We play smart, heady basketball
    Ok, so maybe this wish list is tantamount to something a kid has on his Santa radar and the likelihood of he or she getting all of this is slim but… it’s not crazy to think that these things could happened. There are teams that have done more with less albeit in less competitive leagues but when it all shakes out we become impressed with these teams during NCAA tournament play. Don’t get me wrong; I’ll be as happy as a puppy with two peters if NEXT YEAR:
     Costner stays
     Degand is fully recovered
     We land Wall and Favors
     We play sound fundamentally
     We still believe that it is our right to win
     We play solid defense
     We play smart, heady basketball
    But I am content with staying in the now.

  7. Dogbreath 12/24/2008 at 2:48 PM #

    “That said, I do blame a lot of the problems on Herb and the fact the program was a complete wreck when he left, he left nothing in the cupboard for after Sid’s 1st year (I think he was thinking of bailing anyways that year or the year after)”

    This is in no way a defense of Herb, but this is revisionism. Had Herb stayed, this year’s team would have featured the following lineup:

    G: Chris Wright (currently starting at Georgetown, averaging 13.2 ppg)
    G: Courtney Fells
    C: Ben McCauley
    F: Brandon Costner
    F: Dan Werner (currently starting at Florida, averaging 10.5 ppg)

    With a bench of Ferguson, Horner, Degand, and whomever else he might have signed in the last two years, most likely Jamelle McMillan.

    Does anyone really believe the above lineup would not constitute a top 3 team in the ACC? Seriously?

    If you want to blame anyone for leaving the cupboard bare, blame Jed Fowler for dragging ass on the hiring process and allowing 2 stud recruits out of their LOI. If we had a real AD, Sid would have had a good nucleus to build around, albeit youthful, but we would most likely not be having this conversation.

    Here were Herb’s last three classes:

    2004:

    5 Star: Cedric Simmons, #4 PF
    4 Star: Andrew Brackmon, #7 PF
    4 Star: Gavin Grant, #14 SF

    2005:

    5 Star: Brandon Costner, #6 PF
    4 Star: Courtney Fells, #9 SG
    4 Star: Ben McCauley, #24 PF

    2006:

    4 Star: Chris Wright, # 9 PG
    4 Star: Dan Werner, # 16 PF
    3 Star: Dennis Horner, #22 SF

    That is 9 recruits with an average rating of 4.3, and an average position ranking of 12.
    ——————————————————————————————–
    Here are Sid’s first 3 classes (I have not attributed what remained of the 2006 class, which fell apart):

    2007:

    5 Star: JJ Hickson, #3 C
    4 Star: Tracy Smith, #18 PF
    3 Star: Johnny Thomas, #40 SF
    3 Star: Javier Gonzalez, #30 PG

    2008:

    3 Star: CJ Williams, #28 SF
    3 Star: Julius Mays, NR SG

    2009:

    4 Star: Richard Howell, #19 PF
    4 Star: Lorenzo Brown, #8 SG
    3 Star: Scott Wood, #29 SG

    That is 9 recruits with an average rating of 3.6, and an average position ranking of 22.

  8. Gene 12/24/2008 at 3:49 PM #

    The cupboard was bare for various reasons and would’ve been bare even if Herb stayed for the 2006-2007 season. Simmons and Brackman were gone. With an incoming 2006 class of Horner, Werner and Davis, we would’ve been a thin, inexperienced, team. What hurt us, in Herb’s last few years, was the relliance on walk-ons to fill out the last spots on the bench. I believe Herb’s last year here we had three walk-ons: Roach, Albritton and Nieman. We only suited up 9 scholly players a night, so we didn’t have the depth to absorb early departures. When the 2006 recruiting class was released form their LOI’s it was sort of a double whammy.

    On a side note, after reading up on Cousins and the mess at UAB not giving him the option of opting out of his LOI if Davis is no longer the coach, maybe releasing Davis and Werner may pay off in the recruitment of Cousins.

  9. hball57 12/24/2008 at 4:36 PM #

    When I read these threads I wonder a lot of things.

    I wonder why people choose to ignore anything but the last game. For example, Ben had a bad game against Marquette. It might have been his only bad game of the year.

    I wonder why we can’t look at a play, listen to a coach, and see what the coach is talking about. When Degand first stepped out to double team James, he was on his side. When James moved and faked towards McCauley. Degand reacted by trying to get in front of James instead of holding his position. When James went back, degand tried to recover but got tangled up with the player screening. So the play was sound, the execution was not.

    I wonder why whenever an opposing coach compliments us we turn it into sarcasm towards our team. James made a complimentary comment about Lowe and our offense. The Marquette coach talks about how well we execute our offense, both in the half court and the fast break. He mentions how you don’t find teams that can execute both as efficiently as we do.

    I wonder why we look at a team in December and never believe we can get better. Did we play better in the game against Marquette that we played in the previous games?

    You know, I wish we could take our team for what it is. We are not the most athletic team, but we are not the worst, even in the ACC. We have offensive options and we play a lot of players who don’t hurt us. We have a chance this year. Take away Carolina and Wake. Who else in the ACC scares you? Who has 3 quick guards like Marquette? Who has a Stephen Curry?

    I live in the real world which means we need to compare our team, not to some memory of perfection, but to the teams we will have to play. I live in a world where we can continue to get better, game after game. I heard the same kind of stuff about the football team the first half of the year. Even as we were getting better, losing close games, so people said we wouldn’t win another game. They were proven wrong. Why can’t our basketball team be the same?

  10. Greywolf 12/24/2008 at 4:56 PM #

    Wulfpack
    Dec 24th, 2008 at 10:00 am
    Greywolf,

    “I never said anywhere in any thread that I am giving up on the team, throwing in the towel, or any of the other non-sense you are spouting.”

    If the shoe doesn’t fit, don’t put it on. I’m not going back and copy and paste the histronics, but you can read and see for yourself the towel tossersl. I may have exagerated but the precedent was set a long time ago.

  11. Afterglow 12/24/2008 at 5:03 PM #

    hball57-nicely played.

    I agree with all of your points.

    I also think we have to live more in the now. Someone once told me if you live in the rear view mirror your gonna crash. The same goes for looking too far ahead. This doesn’t quite match what you’re saying.

    In any event, it does feel like a lot tend to embrace the misery rather than look at what we did well. I understand the frustration. But I for one (and maybe many) don’t think it’s too bad really. I think things can and will work out ok-maybe even good.

    And watch out for Mays, I think he’s going to do better than expected.

  12. highstick 12/24/2008 at 10:52 PM #

    Merry Christmas, guys! Maybe our fortunes will turn with a new year!

  13. Astral Rain 12/25/2008 at 8:44 AM #

    Yes, I do understand how bad the situation was- and who to blame for that.

    Three years is enough time to turn it around though. (First year for Sid doesn’t count as that was a lost year)

    I do see signs that it could turn around. You gotta learn to lose close before you learn to win close. That might take a few games, or a year.

  14. hball57 12/25/2008 at 8:57 AM #

    First of all Merry Christmas to all of Wolfpack Nation!

    Afterglow-
    I try not to project too far; I really focus on the next game. But I have to go past so many gloom and doom posts to find one dwelling in the “here and now” I tend to feel someone has to project something positive.

    Maybe I have a little different perspective. You see, I don’t care about what our neighbors are doing, until we play them. I can tune out the Wal-Mart fans easily. So if they are doing better than us, I don’t care. So I keep my focus on our players, our team. So I think i can see the positives and the improvements each game. I see positives in this team, and I think we will surprised the “gloom and doom”ers.

  15. Afterglow 12/25/2008 at 11:13 AM #

    Perspectives are interesting and they can change as easily as the weather.

    Jim Valvano was from the east coast coaching for a little school named Iona College. Both Sidney Lowe and Derrick Whittenburg literally thought he owned a college when V first approached them and tried to get them to play for the Gaels in New Rochelle. Little did they know they would be playing for that same crazy Italian guy some time down the road when State hired him.

    After his first year, State fans wanted to burn V in effigy.

    Who knows where we’ll go. I think that’s sometimes the fun of getting there.

  16. cowdog 12/25/2008 at 12:49 PM #

    Positive on a Christmas Day.
    Hoping not to screw up my prime rib, felt like taking a gander in here over some champagne.

    This team can win. I see it in a single, simple basketball term.
    TURNOVERS.

    19 of them V. Davidson
    18 agaist Marquette

    Coaches acceptable level per game no > 12
    Can’t score without the ball.
    Eliminate a 1/2 dozen no chance trips to the offensive end and we win both those games.
    It’s possible.

  17. BJD95 12/25/2008 at 4:02 PM #

    We turn the ball over because our guard play sucks. I don’t think that’s correctable without new personnel.

    Sans Fergie, things will get worse before they get better. Much easier to press the ballhandler when you don’t have to worry about the off guard nailing a three.

    Merry Christmas, everyone!

  18. Classof89 12/25/2008 at 7:09 PM #

    “After his first year, State fans wanted to burn V in effigy.”

    Now there’s a good case of revisionist history. Were you even around in 1980-81, V’s first season? Because I was. We finished one game over .500 (14-13, I believe), and considering what had been lost from the 1980 team, people were grateful V managed to pull out a winning record, continuing a streak of 13 straight winning seasons. At the same time, we were all hopeful, because of the quality of recruits like Sidney Lowe and Whittenberg–Bailey was a relative unknown, IIRC– from Sloan’s last recruiting class (and incidentally, a recruiting class far superior to anything supposedly uber-recruiter Lowe has pulled off). The next year was a 1st round NCAA loss to UT-Chatanooga, and we all know what happened in year 3. In year three of Valvano’s reign, we won the national championship. In year three of Lowe’s reign, we are struggling to avoid the ACC cellar for a third straight year. There may be many reasons for it that we will argue about from now til the end of what will certainly be a dismal season.

  19. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 12/25/2008 at 8:59 PM #

    ^^Classof…

    Are you trying to compare Sloan’s last class to Herb’s last class or Sid’s first two? Do you think college basketball in the late 70’s is anything like basketball today? Sloan was a championship coach with a solid reputation when he left, Herb had a strong rep in the coaching community but that is about all he had to offer.

    Valvano was an exceptional person and motivator and it is is unfair to compare other to him. I’ve seen that he even recruited Lowe and Whit when he was at Iona. He went up to them after a HS game and said something like ‘you guys should play for me at Iona College’. After he left L and W were talking and one asked what that coach just said and the other said something like ‘I’m not sure but I think he said he owned a college’.

  20. Afterglow 12/25/2008 at 10:10 PM #

    Classof89-Yes, I was alive in 80-81 but perhaps you could say I didn’t live it as you did. I have no shame in admitting that I wrote something with out thinking it through. I suppose what I was pointing to (in an indirect and maybe irresponsible fashion) was something that (and this is not quoted directly) came from Jim Valvano’s mouth after the first season. It was certainly what he expressed-whether he went around and took a pole on it to see what everyone else thought is another question all together.

    In any event, I stand corrected.

  21. Rochester 12/25/2008 at 10:54 PM #

    The No. 1 reason I think we can do better this year is I think we did not play our best lineups for much of the game against Marquette. If we run our better players out there for more of that game, we win and we’re not crying on this board about how we lost the game on a last second shot, because we would have won by 6-7 points. As soon as Sid realizes you don’t keep your hottest shooter on the bench for a good chunk of the second half, we improve right there. As soon as Sid realizes that an inexperienced Julius Mays is better than Degand or Javi, we improve right there. That’s with the same personnel. I’m not saying we challenge for the conference title, but we do have the personnel to be 9-0 right now. We just need to use them right. We’re not that far away from being a competitive team.

  22. Greywolf 12/26/2008 at 12:22 AM #

    Rick
    Dec 24th, 2008 at 8:36 am
    “Greywolf,
    You need to quit telling people how to be a fan.”

    Rick,

    I frankly don’t give a crap about how people be fans, however, when some “fans” come on about how teary-eyed they get over V’s “Don’t ever give up” speeches one week and rant and rave about giving up the next, I couldn’t help but that call-out that BS. You don’t seem to have a problem calling-out anybody and everybody who posts something you don’t like. I find it weird that you took offense at what I had to say unless you were one for whom the shoe fit.

    I don’t like losing, I hate losing. But how is it that some fans have gotten the notion that hating to lose and wanting to win NOW equates to giving up on the season?

    I don’t have any idea if Sid can make anything of this season. I just think it is a little early to give up — about 20 games too early.

    But be my guest, Rick, give up.

    [this is Rick posting] – Just because it is your perception does not make it true. Please post your opinions without labeling others. This is not the other board.

  23. choppack1 12/26/2008 at 10:07 AM #

    greywolf – I agree that it’s too early to give up on the season. However, if you look at the 2 games that would demonstrate what this team is capable of – you have to be concerned that the bugaboos of our last 2 years – rebounding and/or TOs – are playing a key role in our defeats. Still, I think we have made some progress in the “effort” arena. We’ve been ready to play both of these games.

    We’re getting ready to enter the meat of the season and some upcoming matchups should reveal just what we should expect for this season:
    1) @ Florida – our first true road game against a team that has big time talent. How will we react to this team and being on the road?
    2) @ Clemson – our first conference road game. Historically, we’ve stunk in this game. However, we have the talent to stick w/ them – do we have the heart?
    3) FSU at home – a team that will go 6-10 or better will win this game.
    4) GaTech – see above.
    5) @ BC – this is the kind of game that’s killed us the last 2 years. You are playing a team that you have the talent to hang with – but you’ve got to approach it like the outcome is critical.

    If we go 3-2 (or better)in these games, I’ll be very happy, and there will be some hope for an NCAA tourney bid.

    Even if we go 0-5 in this stretch, I’ll be looking at the effort we’re expending and how the staff has prepped this team. If we lose these games like we’ve lost the last 2, I’ll certainly be disappointed, but hopeful about the future. If we go 1-4 or even 2-3 w/ inconsistent effort and what appears to be a lack of preparation, I won’t be hopeful about the future.

  24. cowdog 12/26/2008 at 10:09 AM #

    BJ…while true that our guards are mediocre, there have been turnovers aplenty coming from the middle via forced execution in double down situations and plenty of ill advised cross court passes coming from our forwards.

    What I’m intimating is that those kinds of TOs are the ones to eliminate, precisely because our guards are not all that dependable.

  25. Greywolf 12/26/2008 at 11:45 AM #

    WTF?

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