BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

First, stop watching this team as if had (or has) a chance to be good. It doesn’t. Whatever long-shot chance NC State ever had went down the drain when we first saw Farnold’s knee in action (he simply can’t cut on it playing defense). Keep in mind that our best guard, by far, is Trevor Ferguson. How can a team be good when that is the case? Depressingly, we received an e-mail last night noting that Trevor broke his arm or wrist during the Marquette game (kudos to him for finishing). UPDATE: Per the N&O’s “ACC Now” blog, Ferguson has a broken bone in his non-shooting hand, and will be out 3-6 weeks. Shit.

So, what do you look for this year? Baby steps. I see them. For the most part, State plays hard for 40 minutes (don’t confuse that with playing well or playing smart). The gameplans make sense, at least to me. There’s just not much we can do when the opposition makes adjustments. Subjectively, I don’t hate watching this team play, and am not embarrassed that they wear the uniform of my alma mater. Couldn’t say that last year.

Is this progress? I think so. We haven’t lost to any crap teams, unlike last year (ECU, New Orleans). We haven’t mailed it in. There’s just no way to do much more than that with the personnel currently in place.

Which leads me to 2009-10. This is when we need to see a great leap forward. We will have much better players in place, and at least one plus player at the guard position (Lorenzo Brown). If Lowe’s gameplans are in fact good, and he’s learned how to reach and motivate college players, then the 2009-10 will win some games, and make the NCAA tournament. Until then, we have to watch games from a different point of view. Take a Xanax if you need one.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

185 Responses to BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

  1. wufpup76 12/23/2008 at 8:34 PM #

    Get well soon Fergs … you will definitely be missed while you’re out

    A hard-working, team first guy who is better than he is usually given credit for

    … As for the attitudes towards Pack basketball, while it’s certainly understandable for all the pent up frustration to be let out after each loss (one Sweet 16 since V left will do that to you) – we sometimes earn the “bad fan” label that the media loves to adorn us with (at least a few earn it, anyway)… It happens to every other fanbase, only ours is one of the easier ones to bash for various reasons

    About the PG situation, I agree that Mays is playing the best and has progressed the most as the regular season has come along … He’s already come a long way since the two exhibition games … Hopefully Javi and Farnold can progress as well and maybe we can have a decent situation back there

  2. W0LFPack 12/23/2008 at 10:09 PM #

    I can’t stand to hear who we’ve played and who you want us to play. This is ridiculous. Who do you want us to go out and schedule?? Syracuse, Michigan State, Kansas, etc. etc. Hate it or love it, if you’re a big name team you play some cupcakes…that’s just how it goes in college basketball now. Deal with it. Oliver Purnell and Clemson are beginning to use that to build their program. You go out and schedule 15 cupcakes before you start ACC play and are one of the last teams undefeated, you get national attention. Use that in the recruiting game, and bam, they love it.

    No one says anything about Clemson and who they’ve played? Hell, South Carolina is 9-1…Just looking at that you’d probably say they’re destined for a NCAA bid. Their loss has been to College of Charleston. They’ve beaten no one.

    Duke scheduled Xavier, who just got beat by Butler…Rhode Island took them to the last minute of the game, and got beat by Michigan. UNC has played Notre Dame and that’s it (other than the challenge, which we were not eligible for, and is scheduled for the best possible matchups, meaning their #1 vs our #1). I’m not gonna go through the ACC team by team, but look for yourselves if you must. All ACC teams play cupcakes. It’s just what happens. If you compare our OOC and the other teams in the ACC it’s pretty close to what everyone else is facing. You don’t want to tire the team before conference play, because the conference is a lot more important than OOC.

    By the way, if we make it to 8-8 in the ACC, you can guarantee we’ll get in the tournament. There has only been one team ever to go .500 in the acc and not get in the tournament. We have a chance to go 500…I’ll even say that we’ll lose the 6 games against UNC, Duke, WFU, and Clemson (although, I GUARANTEE we win one). We still could go 500 or a game under.

  3. choppack1 12/23/2008 at 10:13 PM #

    “I don’t know about the “gains” over the past five years, not for NC State or it’s BB program anyway. I think instead, someone may have packed up some of his own personal gains and hauled them out to Arizona along with the rest of the family.”

    You’ve definitely got a point there. Sendek didn’t leave the program in the same shape that TOB left BC, but then again, Lowe wasn’t surrounded by the basketball equivalent of Steve Logan and Spaziani to ease the transition. Still, Lowe came into a position where we hadn’t missed the tournament in 5 years, and now we’ve missed it 2 years straight – and if the tourney were to start tomorrow, it would be 3 straight.

    “We are suffering through a lapse in proper personnel, and at the same time having to bite our tongues while our coach struggles to learn ropes and get his feet wet in big time college basketball. It’s tough.”

    That’s true – and there’s some shared responsiblity here for our these personnel problems.

    “Now, if I had my way, we would still have the ability to recruit somewhat against the likes of the Duke’s and unc’s out there, and we wouldn’t have veered off into an alternate universe where a “system” of playing basketball overruled evething else. Most importantly though, we would still have an IDENTITY intact and functioning so that the kids out there today would know what NC State BB stands for.”

    That identity was lost in our second consecutive appearance in the play-in game. I’d also note that the last player I remember NC State beating the likes of Duke and UNC for was Walker Lambiotte. Brian Howard may have been offered by both. But V certainly put together some great runs w/ the state’s top players – who weren’t quite burger boys.

    However, as much as I like V – and I enjoyed watching his coaching, we can’t forget that Duke was built into an empire right under his nose. Their final 4 streak started in 86 – when V should have had this program in its prime.

    “We don’t have any of that right now though, and no single coach or single BB player is responsible for all of that, no matter how good, or how bad, they may be.”

    I agree – I think we both agree that those overseeing the athletic department in general, and the basketball program specifically – have played a large role in the dysfunction that we see today. We may just have the right guy at the helm to bring the hope back again and this year, I’ve seen some signs of improvement. The bad news is that significant improvement is needed.

  4. Greywolf 12/23/2008 at 10:25 PM #

    Wulfpack,
    There is a shit pot full of quiting going on in this thread. If you are one and you excuse giving up, quiting, tossing in the towel, because YOU want to win NOW? Not only is your tantrum childish, your thinking that YOU and others who whine, complain and justify giving up on the team, childish, it’s ridiculously self-centered. Go to time out!

  5. Afterglow 12/23/2008 at 11:10 PM #

    I think we can go places.

    Agreed, lot of negativity. There’s some general fact sharing which feels negative (nothing wrong with that) and then dashes of positive vibes here and there but man… it was one game and a lot of people ARE ready to throw in the towel. Two losses so far this year.

    We’re simply not there yet but I don’t really think we’re that far. Let me clarify-this isn’t to say I think we will be a tournament team; I’m not even thinking about that yet. Could it happen? Perhaps. The way I see it is if we can see improvement: will the real Costner please stand up, some solid-not mind blowing-point guard play, good team attitude, fundamentally sound basketball, wise coaching decisions and team cohesion-I think we will do fine.

    We’re going to lose games folks, that’s kind of how it works. In the end, if the aforementioned things don’t happen, give me a towel and I might be closer to throwing it in. Otherwise, I don’t believe the sky is fallling.

  6. 61Packer 12/24/2008 at 12:14 AM #

    WOLFpack: “I can’t stand to hear who we’ve played and who you want us to play. This is ridiculous. Who do you want us to go out and schedule?? Syracuse, Michigan State, Kansas, etc, etc. Hate it or love it, if you’re a big name team, you play some cupcakes…that’s just how it goes in college basketball ball now……You go out and schedule 15 cupcakes before you start ACC play and are one of the last teams undefeated, you get national attention. Use that in the recruiting game, and bam, they love it.”

    Hey, that is EXACTLY what we’ve been doing for the past 20 years or so. You really think it’s working? It may be debatable as to whether cupcake schedules make our teams better, but there is conclusive proof that it is hurting fan interest, which has translated to declining attendance at home games and less tv for road games.

    The sky isn’t falling, but the roof has caved in on this once-proud program, and until some serious changes take place in Wolfpack administrative offices, it’ll be more of the same this year, next year, and the next.

    Whether you love or don’t love Wolfpack sports, there is no logical reason to assume it’s going to get better. And if someone knows something I don’t, then let’s hear it. The football season ends next Monday, and it’s going to be a long time until September.

  7. Gene 12/24/2008 at 4:34 AM #

    “If you compare our OOC and the other teams in the ACC it’s pretty close to what everyone else is facing.”

    Not really. We’re playing the worst of the worst in D-1 basketball; teams which were recently D-II schools and are struggling to make the transition into D-I ball.

    Comparing UNC’s schedule, the worst rating (using Sagarin) they’ve faced so far is Penn, an Ivy league school, with a ranking of 255.

    The rest of their opponents are solidly in the top 200 or top 100, like UC-Santa Barbara, with a ranking of 154 and Oral Roberts with a ranking of 163 or Evansville with a ranking of 71 (NCSU has a ranking of 79, for reference).

    If we played some mid-majors or small majors, who had a shot at winning their tournament, it’d really help our SOS, but we’re playing the dregs of D-I ball. Several teams who aren’t in the top 300, like WSSU, NCCU, UNC-G and High Point. Being in state schools, maybe we felt obligated to help fund their athletic budgets by hosting them, I don’t know, but we play very few top 200 teams – ECU,Marquette and Davidson, so far.

    I guess all my rambling is about is there are different types of “cupcakes”. Some are actually pretty good, while others are just awful. We’re loading up on the just awful for you twinkies of college ball.

  8. FLPack 12/24/2008 at 8:02 AM #

    StateFansNation Team,
    Nothing to do with this thread……I just watned to take a moment to pause and thank you for all the coverage you provide throughout the year. This site is fantastic, I check it daily and often multiple times per day. The info and perspective you provide has become an important and enjoyable part of my life. In reflecting on the year, I wondered “How did I ever get by without SFN?”. So many thanks, you all do a fantastic job, please keep it up! Merry Christmas to you, thanks for your gifts all year long!

  9. Rick 12/24/2008 at 8:36 AM #

    Greywolf,
    You need to quit telling people how to be a fan.

  10. wufpup76 12/24/2008 at 8:52 AM #

    ^Like FLPack said – Merry Christmas all

    Have a safe holiday season, and if you’re drinking to help forget about State athletics for awhile be sure to let someone else drive!

  11. choppack1 12/24/2008 at 9:20 AM #

    “it was one game and a lot of people ARE ready to throw in the towel.”

    Actually, it’s 2 games. We’ve played 2 opponents who will contend for tournament spots. We’ve lost to both of those teams. We could have easily won both of those games. We were in position to win both of those games. We didn’t – and I think what you’re seeing is a natural reaction of folks when they were hoping – and told – they’d see something different.

    Of course, the truth is that so far this team is different. Our wins over bad teams are by greater margins. Our 2 losses don’t really fall in the “if we had only bothered to show up” category. Unfortunately, this team doesn’t have the same talent last year’s did…they may try harder and have less to show for it.

    But afterglow, you can’t blame Wolfpack fans for wanting to give up on the season because we’ve hit a bump in the road. Heck, in the past this is when we’ve seen some of our best wins.

  12. Mike 12/24/2008 at 9:38 AM #

    The schedule discussion I think is quite funny. On one hand, several complain about cupcakes and we need to be playing better teams. These are the same people who would then be complaining that we are 2-7 instead of 7-2, and that we need to play an easier schedule.

    I personally dont like the cupcakes either. I think they do serve a purpose – getting some experience and letting the players get some confidence, giving them something to build upon.

    Winning is an attitude and can be learned. It reminds me of the poster here who said the fan behind him constantly complained about running the football and why dont we throw more. Next play, QB throws an INT and the smae jerk stands up screaming at the coach to run the ball more.

  13. Wulfpack 12/24/2008 at 10:00 AM #

    Greywolf,

    I never said anywhere in any thread that I am giving up on the team, throwing in the towel, or any of the other non-sense you are spouting. In fact, I’ve stated I think we can show some improvement and have the potential to be a bubble team. I’ve said I support Sid and don’t think he’s going anywhere anytime soon. That would be crazy and would get us no where. So please stop concocting visions of what you think my beliefs are because I have not said anything remotely close to the things you are alleging.

    I am simply objecively stating that we are in no better shape this year than we were last year to date. If you don’t believe that, then go back and look at the schedules and do the math.

    If we are going to be a tournament team, which is the true barometer for 95% of the programs out there, then it’s going to take some better play and some better coaching to get us there. The games aren’t getting any easier. Sid’s record in the ACC is 9-23. Those are the facts, my friend, and unless something drastic changes, well, then, a whole lot hasn’t changed.

  14. Astral Rain 12/24/2008 at 10:12 AM #

    I was willing to give Sid a pass this year as well, but this is the last year. There better be serious NCAA consideration next year, or he should quit. NIT is a minimum for this year.

    That said, I do blame a lot of the problems on Herb and the fact the program was a complete wreck when he left, he left nothing in the cupboard for after Sid’s 1st year (I think he was thinking of bailing anyways that year or the year after)

  15. redfred2 12/24/2008 at 10:34 AM #

    chop, nice breakdown of my points in your earlier post. We do seem to be agreeing a little more than we usually are here lately. 🙂

    This one statement though, were you said our identity and ability to recruit had taken a recent nose dive just because… “That identity was lost in our second consecutive appearance in the play-in game.” I cannot really agree with that statement at all. I my mind, we lost that ability long ago, long before Sidney Lowe came on board, and before he struggled to make a go of it with a group of kids who had no real leaders among their ranks. We, as in the coaches, as well as the players currently on the roster, and all of us fans, are now forced to stumble as this new coach tries to go out and sell something that is not there in reality. This is a transistion period where Sidney Lowe, especially with his coaching background, has to use any advantage that he can think of in order to garner any interest an Atlantic Coast Conference BB program!!! Imagine that. And he is doing it while working with a group of older players/kids, that have no leaders or identity of their own. Lowe is taking a group matching parts, and a program without any identifiable trademark, and trying to turn it back into something that people in this part of the country can identify with once again.

    AND, he IS, as a matter of fact, doing VERY WELL on the recruiting trail considering all of that.

  16. Afterglow 12/24/2008 at 10:37 AM #

    choppack1-I understand the frustration and I don’t blame anyone. This is part of what being a fan is all about. If you didn’t care, it wouldn’t hurt.

    I simply think it’s too early to start worrying and personally don’t prescribe worrying as a good tool-it’s wasteful energy unless you’re using it to problem solve and honestly, none of us are in a position to really do that for this team. It’s kind of like what V use to say to his players… something to the effect of-you have twenty four hours to be angry about this and then we’re on to the next.

    As far as giving up on the season, everyone has their right to do what they wan’t. Given the history, I can see why people feel that way. And given the two losses, I can see why people see this as a harbinger on the dark Wolfpack horizons. But I believe we’re ok.

    I will say what I love about this site is all the different perspectives that people offer and the fact that not everyone agrees. How boring would that be? And in lies the beauty there, we’re all different and yet we all bleed Wolfpack red.

    Happy Holidays everyone and… GO PACK!

  17. choppack1 12/24/2008 at 10:57 AM #

    “you said our identity and ability to recruit had taken a recent nose dive just because… “That identity was lost in our second consecutive appearance in the play-in game.” I cannot really agree with that statement at all. I my mind, we lost that ability long ago, long before Sidney Lowe came on board, and before he struggled to make a go of it with a group of kids who had no real leaders among their ranks.”

    redfred – I was actually talking about Les Robinson getting the play-in game named after us – you know, the darkest years, when we missed the all post-season from 1992-1996. Basically, when you are dealing w/ high school kids – you are dealing w/ very short frames of references…and if you’ve sucked for 5 years, you’ve sucked for at least half the time they’ve been paying attention. That someone came in and after a great first year (sound familiar) – struggled to find a formula that produced half-way decent results in this conference didn’t help. The good news is that for 5 years, if you were a high school kid and you watched selection Sunday – you at least saw the name NC State in a bracket. Granted, you only saw it once after that first week, but it’s better to be in the NCAAs than it is in the NITs, and it’s better to be in the NIT than at home.

    You are correct that Sid is indeed trying to make the NC State brand relevant again to a certain group of high school players we wrote off in the past. I think that’s great – and I think he’s good at it – but he’s working against the clock…and not just from fans. The longer Sid goes w/out getting into the big dance, the harder it will be sell his brand. If Sid can somehow squeak into the tournament this year – it makes a statement to those 2 big names thinking about us for this year – and probably firms up the 2 excellent commitments for the next year.

    As far as the players he inherited. He did inherit a great leader in Atsur – and the players seemed to respond to Sid much better in year than in year 2. What does worry me is that I don’t see a lot of growth in the marginal players thus far. The one kid who seems to have improved a lot since Sid’s first is Trevor Ferguson.

  18. burnbarn 12/24/2008 at 11:19 AM #

    Next year is going to be a tough season too.. We will lose Ben and maybe brandon and we replace them with freshmen… freshmen make mistakes and have to learn. We still will not have a true PG unless Mays develops as this season progresses… unless we get Wall and another big.

    It is going to take time… like 2011 season time as the 2010 class will not have game experience (new PG).

    I see 2011 as the best team we will have had in years… Experience, talent and depth.
    Assuming Sid is no longer here it will just prolong the wait. He has us going in the right direction. In terms of player development… Ferg, Mays, Javi, Simon, Horner, have all improved while here. After the last few games we can argue Brandon has improved…at least mentally. I think Ben is playingh at his ceiling.. and courtney…. you know.
    Merry Christmas everyone!! k

  19. RegularExpression 12/24/2008 at 11:20 AM #

    Every fan base expresses frustration after tough losses, though some years those losses just seem more tolerable. For me, and probably a lot of fans my age(I graduated in ’93) this year is frustrating because we have been at this exact place so many times in the last 15 years. I personally have thought we were going to break out several times in that span. When Osh Benjamin scored 29 in his first game, I had hope. When Herb went to the championship in year 1 I had hope. When we atarted 3-1 in conference in 1999 I had hope. Sid’s 2nd year, hope. In every single instance though, those hopes were followed with disappointment. At some point it isn’t negativity, it’s realism. I think that is the danger of sucking for so long – entire generations of basketball fans know nothing but disappointment and have no reason to expect anything different.

    And yet, even though I sense that I may be setting myself up for disappointment, I’m sure I’ll still find reason for that old feeling of hope to creep in. Maybe I’ll hear that John Wall is still considering us or that Lorenzo Brown scored 41 points in a game. I know it isn’t unique to me because we have so many fans that hang on year after year. I guess that is what being an NC State fan is all about!

  20. redfred2 12/24/2008 at 11:31 AM #

    Chop, sorry, I was reading too quickly and I was thinking more about what ‘I thought’ you would say, than reading what you were actually saying. My apology.

    Anyway, for whatever the thinking, and whether it was ever a viable and workable plan or not, for some reason the existing players did not welcome their superstar caliber freshman teammate into the fold last season. Though I’ve said earlier that leadership is a missing key for the program, the type of negative leadership that I think we witnessed last season can take it’s toll on an entire team and slow everyone’s development in the process.

    I honestly don’t expect much this season, and I didn’t before losing to two of the ranked programs on the OOC schedule, but I do expect to see gains in fundamental BB skills, and a team that appears more calm, composed, and who plays more intelligently as the game slows down for them while they’re gaining more and more confidence in themselves as this BB season progresses.

  21. Gene 12/24/2008 at 11:56 AM #

    Regarding next year. Let’s see how this year unfolds before pushing the panic button.

    We lose Fells and McCauley. Smith can step in for McCauley, in the starting line up without a big drop off, in my opinion. We have to see how Thomas and Williams develop and if they can fill in for Fells. Brown should be a starter as a freshman and should be an upgrade over Ferguson.

    As usual we have to wait and see if Degand recovers and Mays develops this year. If Scott Wood is as good as advertised, he should give us a shooting threat we lack. Fergie should be back. Howell and Horner should be able to give some relief at the 4 / 5 spots.

    Will next year be a great complete team? Nope. But personnel wise it won’t by any worse than we’ve been the last few years, for what it’s worth.

    Plus there’s always the potential to get Wall/ Favors / Cousins in next year, which will give us a big lift.

  22. wolfonthehill 12/24/2008 at 12:19 PM #

    McCauley said it best in the post-game… something to the effect of “we’re playing well – we just don’t know how to win”.

    Because they are, indeed, playing well enough to win for about 35 minutes. Then they freeze up like a deer in headlights & watch the other team do what it takes to win.

    Not sure how to change that…

  23. Wolf Dog 12/24/2008 at 12:20 PM #

    We are on a upward swing. Lost a couple close games, most everybody has at this point including Duke.
    Dean Smith and Coach K didn’t start off on fire either. We keep developing and getting better we could make a little noise this year. Next year: we get Costner back, some players with some experience, and one of the nations best recruiting classes coming in next year. I see better days ahead. I never thought this was going to be a quick fix. Herb left a mess and it took sooooo long to hire Sid we lost a recruiting year. The freshmen this year are really Sid’s first real recruiting class and next year is his second. Take the freshman this year and put them with what is coming in and we very much look like a program on the rise.

    We playing hard, lost two close games by a team that has to learn how to win, and didn’t lose to bad teams. This team still has a shot of being an NCAA tournament team. Some fan support and making the RBC a tough place to play would help.

  24. wolfonthehill 12/24/2008 at 12:28 PM #

    And after reviewing the whole thread, I’m actually chuckling. Some brilliant gems of analysis are tucked in there, including a criticism of Duke’s schedule, since they played Xavier, a team ranked in the top-10 a week ago. Regardless of who may have just beaten Xavier, they would absolutely mop the court with our jock straps… on any court… any time.

    Unless, of course, Sean decided to take it easy on us…

  25. choppack1 12/24/2008 at 1:08 PM #

    Gene – you are making a lot of assumptions. History has shown that NC State fans can’t afford to do that. I can’t recall the last season of NC State basketball that wasn’t negatively impacted by an injury, transfer, early departure or suspension.

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