BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

First, stop watching this team as if had (or has) a chance to be good. It doesn’t. Whatever long-shot chance NC State ever had went down the drain when we first saw Farnold’s knee in action (he simply can’t cut on it playing defense). Keep in mind that our best guard, by far, is Trevor Ferguson. How can a team be good when that is the case? Depressingly, we received an e-mail last night noting that Trevor broke his arm or wrist during the Marquette game (kudos to him for finishing). UPDATE: Per the N&O’s “ACC Now” blog, Ferguson has a broken bone in his non-shooting hand, and will be out 3-6 weeks. Shit.

So, what do you look for this year? Baby steps. I see them. For the most part, State plays hard for 40 minutes (don’t confuse that with playing well or playing smart). The gameplans make sense, at least to me. There’s just not much we can do when the opposition makes adjustments. Subjectively, I don’t hate watching this team play, and am not embarrassed that they wear the uniform of my alma mater. Couldn’t say that last year.

Is this progress? I think so. We haven’t lost to any crap teams, unlike last year (ECU, New Orleans). We haven’t mailed it in. There’s just no way to do much more than that with the personnel currently in place.

Which leads me to 2009-10. This is when we need to see a great leap forward. We will have much better players in place, and at least one plus player at the guard position (Lorenzo Brown). If Lowe’s gameplans are in fact good, and he’s learned how to reach and motivate college players, then the 2009-10 will win some games, and make the NCAA tournament. Until then, we have to watch games from a different point of view. Take a Xanax if you need one.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

185 Responses to BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

  1. BSIE80 12/23/2008 at 2:37 PM #

    The wolfpack is better than I expected this year. We did finish at the bottom last year.
    My observations:
    1. Mays is better than I thought. Will improve with more playing time.
    2. Costner is playing better than we all expected.
    3. Ben is above average player and overall he is playing ok, but has limited ability.
    4. Fells is the real difference in our wins/losses at this point. He was suppose to be a 5 star player that just does not have the IQ to even meet the expectations of a 4 star recruit. This was identified last year. Therefore, we just have to deal with it.
    5. Horner can not compete in the ACC because of his lack of quickness, and he was a 4 star- go figure that one.
    6. When you sum this up, we should be at the bottom of the league again this year. We just do not have enough talent.

    Since all of these guys are good guys and are competing the best they can, why don’t we just support them and discuss the good points.

    I am a tired of reading about how bad a coach Sid is. We need to support him. The more support he receives the better his chance of recruiting better talent. If the program is always under scrutiny from the alumni, then instability will continue to be the issue with building a long term successful program. You must have stability before you can build improvement. Some time this means patience. So give 10 years to make it happen. He is after all, one of us isn’t he?

  2. Noah 12/23/2008 at 2:57 PM #

    Come on…Corchiani was a McD’s All-american. Noah, you cant’ be seriously arguing that you think Julius Mays can lead this team to 8-8 or better in the ACC…

    I never said ANYTHING about Julius Mays. I was attacking your idiotic argument about freshmen point guards.

    Many of the players on your list were All-americans and highly sought after recruits. Marbury? All-american. Steve Blake? People cried on here for years that we couldn’t land him. Curtis marshall? You can’t be serious…Marshall played on some of the worst teams in NC State history. Osh Benjamin? top 10 guard in the country coming out of HS. Daniel Ewing? top 50 recruit. Who else wanted Julius Mays?

    Okay, you need to pick a f-ing argument, dude. Either that or you need to learn to read other people’s posts.

    Steve Blake was no one’s all american. I believe the highest he was rated was somewhere around 98th on Bob Gibbons final top-100 list. Osh Benjamin was ranked somewhere in the 40s. Curtis Marshall was ranked in the top-200 and Dan Ewing was a top-10 player.

    YOU keep shrinking or enlarging your argument to fit whatever silly point you’re trying to make in order to defend Sidney Lowe. Why not just argue that we ought to make him coach for life? It’s far less silly than your other nonsense about freshmen point guards. It’s at least consistent.

    I’m going to go ahead and put you in that OTHER category of fan. In five years, I have no doubt that we’ll still suck in basketball, we’ll still have Sidney Lowe as our coach and we’ll still have a group of people arguing that it’s still Herb Sendek’s fault.

  3. Noah 12/23/2008 at 2:58 PM #

    BTW, you still ignored Taron Downey, Clyde Austin, Terrell Mcintyre and Jeff Jones. Don’t you want to argue that ACTUALLY all of those guys were super-secret all-americans and that just proves your non-existent, imaginary point?

  4. Rick 12/23/2008 at 3:00 PM #

    Classof89
    You asked someone to name a freshman point guard that led their team to success. You got many answers but have since changed your question.

    If you have a point to make then make it. Being proven wrong over and over again does nothing to bolster your argument.

  5. BJD95 12/23/2008 at 3:03 PM #

    I don’t really see evidence pointing to Sid being a good coach or a bad coach at this point. Rather, the evidence (to me) is absolutely conclusive that he was not ready for the job when hired, and pretty strong that he has identified and addressed several problem areas after the disaster that was last season.

    This season’s results are the “fruit of the poisonous tree” – i.e., the time period during which Sid was in over his head. That said, I’m not giving him a pass or wiping his slate clean – I’m expecting to see a good basketball team next season and a very good one in 2010-11. Otherwise, the results will dictate that Sid isn’t ascending the learning curve fast enough to survive in the ACC.

  6. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 3:11 PM #

    I think we all need to take a deep breath and step away from the keyboards. this cranky atmosphere where fans attack one another in frustration reminds me of the latter years of the Les Robinson era.

    I don’t know how Noah somehow confused my arguments that Julius May isn’t going to fare well in ACC play with some kind of support for Sidney Lowe. The whole point of the freshmen point guards not doing well in ACC play when they were freshmen argument was in response to people who, for some reason, pointed to his fine performance against Lipscomb as somehow evidence that he would get it done during ACC season.

    Like him or not, Lowe’s going to get at least one more year, even if he goes 5-11 in the ACC. I hate that for the second straight time we are giving on the job training to a coach who wasn’t ready to be head of an ACC program, but there’s a darn thing I can do about it.

  7. Rick 12/23/2008 at 3:26 PM #

    “I don’t know how Noah somehow confused my arguments that Julius May isn’t going to fare well in ACC play with some kind of support for Sidney Lowe.”

    Maybe because you said” name one freshman point guard that started for a successful team”

  8. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 3:33 PM #

    ^
    so, again, what does that have to do with supporting Sidney Lowe? I agree with BJD that he wasn’t ready for this job. The fact that in year three we are relying on a lightly recruited freshman point guard with a little over two weeks to go until ACC play begins is ample evidence of that.

    A laundry list of PG over the years that may have seen some playing time as freshmen and may or may not have been more highly recruited than May doesn’t diminish the point.

  9. choppack1 12/23/2008 at 3:43 PM #

    BJD – I agree that it does appear we are playing much harder this year – and I’m encouraged by that. However, I’m a bit worried that we’ll always be a step or two behind.

    We’ll see – we are passing my pedestrian test this year for me to be able to support Lowe for another year: playing hard and looking somewhat prepared.

    Bummer about Ferguson – hopefully Williams and Thomas can step up…maybe even give Farnold some time at the 2 spot.

  10. buttPACKer 12/23/2008 at 4:16 PM #

    It pains me to see how completely irrelevant we have become. . . I have gotten to where I just want to close my eyes during basketball season. I really don’t want Sid to lose his job, but how long can we flounder about?

    Lee Fowler must go, without question. His ability to remain in his position while program after program self-destructs amazes me! Only then can the University begin to reconstruct some semblance of an athletic department. . .

    Football, baseball and golf are the only programs that come to mind that are in good shape, or are steadily improving. . . Thank God for Tom O’Brien.

  11. redfred2 12/23/2008 at 4:25 PM #

    Um, Classof89, I’m apparently like everyone else and can’t quite figure what you are arguing, or what point you are trying to make either. I do know though, that as far as point guards go, and in the true sense of a POINT GUARD, not just a converted two guard who possesses great BB IQ and leadership abilities, NC State has NOT had one of those in a few decades now.

    As far as bashing players goes, especially freshmen players, people who do that are totally ignorant about many things in life, but especially BB. And, as far as getting better FRESHMAN talent to commit and actually play here, after reading some these idiotic comments, good F’N luck.

  12. choppack1 12/23/2008 at 4:28 PM #

    I really wonder how the (other) Power’s That Be react to Fowler. Was Amato’s dismissal was orchestrated elsewhere than the ADs and Chancellor’s office? If so, can’t these same powers rid of us of an AD whose inept coaching search erased the gains we’d made in the last 5 years in men’s basketball.

    I mean, Sid may ultimately be the best thing that’s ever happened to NC State basketball – but it’s hard to dispute that we’ve taken a significant step backwards. (Apparently, it was so obvious that Lee was “managed” out of the football search.)

  13. Dogbreath 12/23/2008 at 4:44 PM #

    Julius Mays reminds me of Timmy Kincaid back at Clemson in the mid 80s. He was slow and had no particular skill as a freshman, but emerged into a serviceable 2nd option PG by the time he was a senior. He played behind Grayson Marshall for two years, then Marion Cash for the other two. Clemson won the ACC regular season his senior year with a team that went 11 deep and featured Elden Campbell, Dale Davis, Sean Tyson, and Wayne Buckingham in the post. Kincaid was a decent contributor, smart player, no flash.

    The Mays kid will never be a starting caliber point guard in the ACC, but he can fulfill a very important role. The best we can hope is that he can contribute 10-12 mpg and not turn the ball over when he is in there. You can build programs with 2 or 3 backups like that, provided you have the horses carrying the brunt of the minutes.

    Unfortunately, this roster is depleted of anything resembling adequate guards, so he is the best we have for now. Gonzalez should just go ahead and transfer now that the semester is over. He will never be an ACC caliber guard, and quite frankly we could use his scholly for an immediate impact JUCO player. Degand is going nowhere. Ferguson is hurt. CJ Williams is Andre McCullum. Johnny Thomas = Rouldre Thomas. Where are the guards?

    Basically, we are screwed until 2010, and more likely 2011.

  14. choppack1 12/23/2008 at 5:07 PM #

    I don’t really want to write off any players – I’ve watched enough ACC basketball to see guys w/ limited physical skills become contributors to say someone will never be more than a solid back-up. I’d say that Mays potential at least matches Justin Gainey’s.

    The one factor that will keep a player from realizing his potential is injury…I’ve seen a lot of guys w/ the potential to be a contributor end up having their potential capped by injury or a series of nagging injuries. I’m afraid that Johnny Thomas may fall in the Jamie Knox, Robert Siler, Levi Watkins, Cedric Hunter category in that we’ll never know what they could contribute healthy.

    If you are writing off Javi and don’t think Mays has the potential to be a starter in the ACC, you are making a fairly harsh statement about this staff’s ability to assess talent. You may not think so, but…

  15. redfred2 12/23/2008 at 5:09 PM #

    I don’t know about the “gains” over the past five years, not for NC State or it’s BB program anyway. I think instead, someone may have packed up some of his own personal gains and hauled them out to Arizona along with the rest of the family.

    We are suffering through a lapse in proper personnel, and at the same time having to bite our tongues while our coach struggles to learn ropes and get his feet wet in big time college basketball. It’s tough.

    Now, if I had my way, we would still have the ability to recruit somewhat against the likes of the Duke’s and unc’s out there, and we wouldn’t have veered off into an alternate universe where a “system” of playing basketball overruled evething else. Most importantly though, we would still have an IDENTITY intact and functioning so that the kids out there today would know what NC State BB stands for.

    We don’t have any of that right now though, and no single coach or single BB player is responsible for all of that, no matter how good, or how bad, they may be.

  16. redfred2 12/23/2008 at 5:27 PM #

    Lest we forget, we are not use to, and do not even remember what the words “DEVELOP”, and “BASKETBALL”, and “NC STATE”, means when they’re all put together. You’d need to go back, waaaaay back, to even comprehend what all three of those words can mean together.

  17. JeremyH 12/23/2008 at 5:37 PM #

    we didn’t just lose JJ for this year, we lost Gavin Grant, who was fairly clutch, and somewhat of a leader on the team. I agree with many of you, it severely blows that we lost two games by last minute shots to top 25 teams, they would have done so much for our program had we found a way to win them. Since there has been enough gloom and doom on this thread I’ll provide some positives. They are playing together, unlike last year, Costner is back, and we have a guard in Mays that has a bit of potential. Although the “blue team” rotation strategy might be questionable now, I think it will pay off during the whirlwind that is ACC conference play. Hopefully we will be competitive in a couple of those games many of you are forecasting us as going 0 – for. Non-conference wins can help out a selection Sunday resume, particularly when the conference record is borderline, but the meat of the consideration is how we fare against other ACC teams. So calm down, its only December; wait until end of January – Feb to get all huffy.

  18. redfred2 12/23/2008 at 5:45 PM #

    ^I agree JH, I’ve never seen so many people who are so ready and willing to write something, or somebody, off. We’re not even into the regular season yet, and they’re already decided that this or that player is good/bad/borderline over the course of just a few games. It is ridiculous.

  19. LRM 12/23/2008 at 6:10 PM #

    Naming the only State freshman PG to both start and have a winning league record is quite easy, as there has only been one since Corchiani in 1987-88: Atsur in 2003-04 (11-5).

    At this point, I’m not asking for too much, just a PG that won’t turn the ball over 21 times in eight games (Javi) or panic in the backcourt and then dribble to the same spot and stop every time (Degand).

    That’s why I like Mays. He makes mistakes just like every other freshman PG in the ACC, but he’s aggressive, and he’s on a similar learning curve as Gainey was. If you’ll remember, Gainey was dreadful until he got the first cycle through the schedule behind him. We’ve all seen what Degand and Javi can (can’t) do, so I’m riding my hopes on Mays’ improvement over the next few weeks.

  20. Greywolf 12/23/2008 at 6:21 PM #

    “This season’s results are the “fruit of the poisonous tree” – i.e., the time period during which Sid was in over his head. That said, I’m not giving him a pass or wiping his slate clean – I’m expecting to see a good basketball team next season and a very good one in 2010-11. Otherwise, the results will dictate that Sid isn’t ascending the learning curve fast enough to survive in the ACC.”

    I’m expecting to see a “good” basketball team by the end of this season. Jimmy V would roll over in his grave if he knew that NCSU and it’s fans were giving up in December.

    And it was just last week I was reading about how we were crying while listening to “Don’t ever, ever, ever give up.”

    If this, SFN, was my bus and it’s not, I would be telling you guys to get behind the Pack or get off the fucking bus. This thread is about 90% bull shit.

  21. BassPacker 12/23/2008 at 6:26 PM #

    I wouldn’t say I’m writing this team off, just not getting hopes too high so I don’t fall too hard when conference play begins. Having attended the games, watched this team play, they seem better than last year, course, we are playing more cupcakes than this time last year while still struggling at times, Davidson and Marquette are not ACC caliber teams. JH, I’m not looking forward to the end of January, specially Jan. 29th. Perhaps this team will be as the old saying goes, “Play up to their competition”.

  22. Afterglow 12/23/2008 at 6:53 PM #

    I’m with you LRM. I believe with in the scope of this year, this is our guy. I don’t know beyond this year and don’t care. I do believe that people will be surprised when the light comes on and I think we will start to see this in early to mid January. He’s smart and like you said aggressive and in some ways (kind of like Russell Wilson) he doesn’t try to do too much.

    I think I’m a little higher on Mays than most but I do think he will do well for us. Will he be Russell Wilson is to Quarterback as Julius Mays is to point guard? I won’t go there… but I do believe he will do well and I think when he does, that’s when we’ll see the true finger print of this team surface.

  23. Wulfpack 12/23/2008 at 7:06 PM #

    “I’ve never seen so many people who are so ready and willing to write something, or somebody, off. We’re not even into the regular season yet, and they’re already decided that this or that player is good/bad/borderline over the course of just a few games. It is ridiculous.”

    We are into the regular season. We’ve played roughly a third of our games this year, mostly against terrible teams. That is a fair enough baromoter for what is likely to come the remaining of the season. Doesn’t seal the team’s fate, but it also doesn’t lend itself to a tremendous amount of hope.

    “If this, SFN, was my bus and it’s not, I would be telling you guys to get behind the Pack or get off the fucking bus. This thread is about 90% bull shit.”

    Getting behind the Pack and calling the Pack out when they blow winnable games is called being a fan who can step back and objectively assess the current state of affairs of the program relative to your competition. We have looked good against some very weak competition, and just about average against two so-so borderline NCAA teams (Davidson and Marquette). The problem is, and I hate to beat a dead horse, but we have one remaining non-conference game of note (Florida). After that, it’s all ACC. And based on what Sid has done in this league his first two years, I would seriously caution anyone to get overly optimistic about this team’s chances for a winning league record. Do the math, that’s what it’s going to take.

    “I’m expecting to see a “good” basketball team by the end of this season. Jimmy V would roll over in his grave if he knew that NCSU and it’s fans were giving up in December.”

    If it’s the end of the season, it will be too late and we won’t be a factor when it matters. It’ll be another “wait until next year” year. If you haven’t figured it out, I, and a pack of other NC State fans, want to win NOW, as in, today.

  24. Clarksa 12/23/2008 at 7:27 PM #

    “I hope you are kidding. Haven’t we been patient long enough?”

    Yes, but we have to separate out the fact that this is Coach Lowe’s 3rd season even though it really feels like Coach Sendek’s 13th or Coach Robinson’s 18th.

  25. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 12/23/2008 at 8:22 PM #

    Last night game was a bad loss. State will continue to struggle until the PG position is fixed. Farnold and Javi are the two most experienced guys and they are both injured. State played poorly and still should of won against a top 25 program.

    I think we should should see a better team this year than last and fans should have pretty high expectations for Lowe next year. If the team doesn’t improve this year there may be a problem but I won’t judge this team based on last night. The game ended almost exactly like the New Orleans game did last year.

    State simply can’t handle teams with strong guards which will make for a difficult ACC season. State has to hope that Farnold’s health improves and that Javi (continues) and Mays mature.

    Sendek left State with nothing at point, except for a dedicated Atsur, and coaches can’t be expected to just suddenly produce a leader. It would be nice if Lowe gets lucky and Mays becomes a basketball version of R. Wilson.

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