BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

First, stop watching this team as if had (or has) a chance to be good. It doesn’t. Whatever long-shot chance NC State ever had went down the drain when we first saw Farnold’s knee in action (he simply can’t cut on it playing defense). Keep in mind that our best guard, by far, is Trevor Ferguson. How can a team be good when that is the case? Depressingly, we received an e-mail last night noting that Trevor broke his arm or wrist during the Marquette game (kudos to him for finishing). UPDATE: Per the N&O’s “ACC Now” blog, Ferguson has a broken bone in his non-shooting hand, and will be out 3-6 weeks. Shit.

So, what do you look for this year? Baby steps. I see them. For the most part, State plays hard for 40 minutes (don’t confuse that with playing well or playing smart). The gameplans make sense, at least to me. There’s just not much we can do when the opposition makes adjustments. Subjectively, I don’t hate watching this team play, and am not embarrassed that they wear the uniform of my alma mater. Couldn’t say that last year.

Is this progress? I think so. We haven’t lost to any crap teams, unlike last year (ECU, New Orleans). We haven’t mailed it in. There’s just no way to do much more than that with the personnel currently in place.

Which leads me to 2009-10. This is when we need to see a great leap forward. We will have much better players in place, and at least one plus player at the guard position (Lorenzo Brown). If Lowe’s gameplans are in fact good, and he’s learned how to reach and motivate college players, then the 2009-10 will win some games, and make the NCAA tournament. Until then, we have to watch games from a different point of view. Take a Xanax if you need one.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

08-09 Basketball

185 Responses to BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts (UPDATE: Confirmed – Ferguson Out 3-6 Weeks)

  1. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 10:42 AM #

    As I’ve said before, I really feel for those of you who made the big contributions for lifetime seats (I put my money into football, and I’m growing more and more confident each year I made the correct bet), in the thought that someday we might put a product on the floor for which ticket demand exceeds supply. That hasn’t happened since the day that arena opened. Last night, I arrived late for the game, and the parking goons were off duty. Drove right into a paved parking spot less than 100 yards from the arena, and walked past dozens of other parking spots even closer to the arena that were empty. In there, I saw hundreds of empty seats, entire sections in the upper level that were completely empty (and one section up there occupied entirely by Marquette fans, which I assume was their local alumni chapter holding an event, knowing that tickets to NC State basketball games are cheap and plentiful), most of the luxury boxes unoccupied (what corporation wants to “entertain” clients with an event that is the athletic equivalent of a trip to the dentist?) and a team playing erratic, unintelligent basketball. A top-25 team playing in our place used to be the toughest ticket in town, because WE were a top 25 team as well. That era has long since passed into the dustbin of history, and we join two-time NCAA hoops championship winners San Francisco and Oklahoma State as a particularly good trivia question.

    What’s my solution? This program needs to be dynamited down to the ground and completely rebuilt. If I’m AD, I’d follow the following steps: (1) I find a young, hungry coach who is a complete unknown, but who has worked miracles at his last job (sort of like Jimmy V and Iona). Good lord, how hard can this be…every year a couple of such coaches lead some unknown teams from minor conferences into the later rounds of the Tournament. (2) I give him 5 years. (3) If we’re not in the Sweet Sixteen after five years, I think him for his contributions and hard work, release him, and repeat step one. I’m guessing if we go through this cycle three or four times, we’d find a keeper. It really isn’t brain surgery…you just have to be willing to pull the trigger when someone obviously isn’t getting it done. Take the emotion, and old school/old boys network crap out of it.

  2. kyjelly 12/23/2008 at 10:45 AM #

    A tough loss ,but two things will be constant with this team We will always be outcoached and our guards will be overmatched.
    Sid is not going anywhere I am afraid. Our next hope is Lorenzo Brown? More than likely at the rate we are going here our savior is in second grade now.
    Wake destroyed ECU by forty. I see no light at the end of the tunnel.
    Until changes are made at the AD level and someone brings in a competent coach and system we will be rebuilding forever.
    Marquette is ranked 25 now but we also were in the top 25 in some polls last year. There coach left and went to Indiana without a drop off.

  3. PoppaJohn 12/23/2008 at 10:46 AM #

    Here’s a great gauge of where we stand this year. We care that Fergs broke his arm / wrist.
    Don’t get me wrong, I love our team, I don’t want anyone hurt, but the fact that he is important to us says volumes.

    I am embarrassed for the ’74 team. They deserved better.

  4. Cardiac95 12/23/2008 at 10:57 AM #

    Who was it that wrote the article about moving Fells back to the 2 to allow Smith to get into the starting lineup? As I watched Ferguson continually get abused on defense, I couldn’t help but wonder if that didn’t make alot of sense. With Ferguson now out, it would seem like that’s almost automatic. We need to put our best 5 on the floor & that includes Smith in the lineup.

    We HAVE to beat Florida, or our required win total in conference play will exceed double digits in order to make the NCAA’s. Lose & we enter conference play with only 9 wins.

  5. choppack1 12/23/2008 at 10:58 AM #

    “Our previous NCAA bubble teams would have the same record against the same opponents as this team.”

    Maybe so, maybe not. The point is that this team has had 2 decent opponents – and while they’ve been in both of these games, they’ve come up short in both. A “bubble team” that goes, wins at least one of those games. If we can’t beat Davidson on the road and Marquette at home – it doesn’t look good for us to beat any upper tier teams at home – and more than 1 or 2 lower tier teams on the road…that folks, is a recipe for anywhere between 4-12 and 6-10…in a watered down ACC that is nothing like it used to be.

    I made a comment on the other thread that this team reminds me of the teams we fielded in HWSBN’s first 5 years – you know, the ones that didn’t make the tournament. (You have to wonder how those teams would have faired in the post-ACC expansion era.) The team played hard and they had a decent gameplan, but it all fell apart in the last 10 minutes of the game. I attribute some of this to coaching, some to the players on the floor not executing and having limited personnel (in terms of talent.)

    The bad news is that aside from Tracy Smith – our current staff hasn’t found anyone who can put the basket in the hoop w/ any regularity. I think it’s shortsighted to assume we take a step forward next year – we lose 2 of the 4 guys who can score in double figures.

    I’m not writing this team of yet though. Hopefully, our guard play will improve – and hopefully, our staff will do what it can to improve. If it does, then we can still have a decent year.

  6. Evroccck 12/23/2008 at 10:58 AM #

    Hearing rumors that Ferg’s is academically ineligible anyway. We’ll see

    Mays is better than Degand, he played OK most of the game but then Farnold came in during crunch time, not sure i get that.

    I def. don’t get the mass sub pulling out the starters when we were up 17-8 or something like that, and with Costner on fire, why not leave him in till he misses?

  7. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 11:00 AM #

    And another thing. I’d much rather be 2-7 right now and having played a schedule like Kay Yow has played then where we actually are: 7 wins over chump schools and losses to the only two teams on the schedule thus far who will have a winning record in their conferences.

    Womens nonconference opponents from major conferences: Florida, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, Michigan, Auburn, Georgetown, South Carolina. 1-4, with two left to play, but we have a pretty good idea of where the women’s team is.

    Mens nonconference opponents: 2 (Davidson isn’t from a major conference, as they showed with their blowout to Purdue the other night).

    If you count Conference USA as a major conference, add one game to each total (women beat UNC-Charlotte, men beat ECU).

    If the men had played that schedule, they’d probably be 1-4 in those games as well. But you know, I don’t think I for one would feel any worse about the program than I do now, and at least I wouldn’t be embarrassed by the schedule we’ve played.

  8. Par Shooter 12/23/2008 at 11:02 AM #

    You guys will all feel much better once the numbness sets in. I’m probably a bad fan but I finally let go of LTR seats this year and I’ve honestly forgotten about our only 2 TV games until the next morning’s paper. The extra free time and lack of anguish are really nice.

    Face it, this program was at an absolute crossroads when HS left for the desert. We were teetering at high-mediocre and needed a push to get where we all want to be. Fowler completely botched the hire and now we’re back to the Les Robinson days. As we know from experience the path from here to prominence is very long and difficult. My only hope for NC State basketball is that Fowler will finally be ousted when its time to search for our next coach.

  9. CStanley 12/23/2008 at 11:05 AM #

    It is a shame to see how much tradition we have here and how much we are struggling right now. A lot of folks have dismissed this thought as ludicrous, but the next two recruiting classes will decide Sid’s fate. I hope they work out b/c I desperately want to see him succeed.

  10. Noah 12/23/2008 at 11:06 AM #

    That’s a defeatist attitude that says we may as well not care and therefore should just close down the program

    Sounds like a plan!

    The program was dead: to begin with. There is no doubt whatever about that. The register of its burial was signed by the clergyman, the clerk, the undertaker, and the chief mourner. Lee Fowler signed it: and Fowler’s name was good upon ‘Change, for anything he chose to put his hand to. The old Wolfpack program was as dead as a door-nail.

    Mind! I don’t mean to say that I know, of my own knowledge, what there is particularly dead about a door-nail. I might have been inclined, myself, to regard a coffin-nail as the deadest piece of ironmongery in the trade. But the wisdom of our ancestors is in the simile; and my unhallowed hands shall not disturb it, or the Country’s done for. You will therefore permit me to repeat, emphatically, that the program was as dead as a door-nail.

    Humbug!!

  11. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 11:20 AM #

    People trying to count wins for an NCAA berth are delusional. AT this point, this team is playing for a winning season and an NIT berth. We have three chump games left, plus the loss at Florida, which puts us at 10-3 out of conference. Since we will have a first round game in the ACC tourney, which will also be most likely a loss, that makes 10-4. So we have to go 5-11 in the ACC to finish 15-15. Didn’t they change the rules for the NIT to require a winning record? If so, we have to go 6-10 to finish 16-14.

    In the ACC, there are six games we have no shot or a less than 10% change of winning: at Clemson, at Wake, at UNC, at Duke, home vs. UNC, home vs. Wake (mercifully, we play Clemson only once). That’s 0-6 right there. At this point, I think it would take a miracle to win even one of those games

    We have other five other games where no-one in there right minds would EXPECT us to win, but there will probably be a couple of nights where we hit everything we throw up and the other team stinks. FSU (we lost to them by 10 at home last season, and by 28 the year before), at Miami, home vs. Miami, at GaTech, Maryland (Lowe is 0-3 vs. Maryland, with none of the losses by less than 14 points). So, optimistically, maybe we win two of these. That’s 2-3.

    That leaves the five winnable games: BC, at BC, Virginia, GaTech, at VaTech. To finish 6-10, we have to win four of these games. To finish 5-11, we have to win three of them. Two of these winnable games (GaTech, at BC) happen by January 24th. We lose one of them, there is no margin for error the rest of the way, or we have to spring a big upset. We lose both of them, and not only are we not going to the NCAAs, we won’t even be going to the NIT.

    The homestand January 13th and 17th vs. FSU and GaTech will basically tell us if this team is going anywhere. We lose both, and then the expected obliteration at Duke on January 20 to start 0-4 in the ACC, and we all are really going to start counting the days to the start of spring football practice.

  12. choppack1 12/23/2008 at 11:32 AM #

    CStanley – I want every coach at NC State to succeed. I agree w/ you though – that Sidney evidently is going to have to do a better job recruiting than he’s done these first 2 years. Sidney does have a solid class for next year and he appears to have inked a great PG and a WF/PF stud in CJ Leslie for the next. The thing is, there’s a long time between those 2 classes. Will the difference makers (of the 2010 class) still want to come to State if we haven’t done better than the NIT this year and next?

    We’re seeing why this hire was so risky. Yes, Sidney looks like a great recruiter – but he’s going to have an increasingly harder time signing talent if he doesn’t start winning. Whether you are going to college for 1 year or 4, you don’t want to sit at home while others go to the tourney.

  13. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 11:49 AM #

    And relying on players who don’t even arrive until 2010 or 2011 for a quick turnaround seems overly optimistic, particularly at back court positions. Unless you are a JJ Redick type talent, you simply aren’t going to contribute much as a freshman backcourt player in the ACC. It takes a couple of seasons of experience for a backcourt player with an average (for the ACC) level of talent to become more of a contributor than a liability…

    So though I agree the next two recruiting classes are very important, due to the unfortunate reality of college basketball (success determined on the court, not in the online recruiting rankings) it is becoming increasingly unlikely that Lowe will be around to enjoy the fruits of his recruiting efforts…

  14. Afterglow 12/23/2008 at 12:03 PM #

    Classof89-“as for Mays, he is going to absolutely be eaten alive in ACC play. I wonder what the ACC team record is for turnovers in a season?”

    I’m not sure I agree with you on this. I think Mays is our PG this year. I do believe that come early to mid January we will see him get comfortable operating the point. His play was not perfect yesterday. He had turnovers but over all I liked what I saw and really believe others will like what they see in his not too far future.

    This team will improve. I believe a light will go on early to mid January. Wait…

  15. 61Packer 12/23/2008 at 12:06 PM #

    Classof89, thanks for the sympathy. I bought 2 LTR basketball seats the first year, and opted for two football seats then as well. A year later I added 2 more football seats. I wish I’d dropped the basketball seats then, but I still have them and still go to the games, good soldier that I am.

    About those basketball seats….I split them with a friend each season, but didn’t have the Marquette game last night so I had to call DirecTV and add ESPN-U so I could see the game from my living room. Costner was super. When McCauley plays within himself, he’s our MVP, but last night he probably tried to take on too much. I don’t fault him for the loss. I thought Mays showed potential despite being ragged. Degand just isn’t there physically and who knows if he ever will be. Javi just isn’t there, period. Smith is an inside presence who’ll help us and already is. Ferguson hustles his butt off and tries his best. Fells, I don’t know. Nobody else seems to, either. We came close last night, but mainly because it was a home game.

    So far, this team can’t hold on to the ball, they don’t play consistent team defense, and they just don’t seem to play disciplined or smart. This is similar to last season. And all of this points to a team that is going to stink on the road.

    Blame Lowe, blame the AD (God forbid I take another shot at LF on here again after my last one), but the schedule is our worst problem right now. No matter who coaches this team, we are never going to be anything like we’ve been in the past until we start playing good non-conference teams.

    Ever since we moved out of Reynolds, the Wolfpack has focused more on winning as many games as possible (over anybody) rather than on preparation for ACC play, despite a 21,000-seat facility that should be attracting the best competition from around the country.

    I believe Wolfpack officials are still satisfied with living off the 1974 and 1983 teams and showcasing their world-class facility rather than facing the present facts: our program has been, at best, mediocre for over two decades at both ACC and national levels; attendance is down and dropping; we have a coaching staff that’s in over its head considering what’s really needed to fix this program; we’re worse off now than we were with Herb Sendek, who was unpopular with a large segment of our fan base; and worst of all, much of this fan base has all but given up on NC State basketball.

    I don’t think we’re going to finish last in the ACC, but there’s no doubt we’ll be somewhere in the lower half of the league by March. How much longer will it be allowed to continue?

  16. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 12:06 PM #

    ^^
    With all due respect I must disagree about Mays. Can you name a freshman point guard in the history of the ACC who has started for a successful team (I define successful as .500 or better in the league). It doesn’t happen. And if anyone does come up with any names, they will be most likely some of the best players in the history of the league, which Mays is probably not.

    And 61Packer, I agree wholeheartedly with your comments about the schedule. With nearly two decades of mediocrity, and flagging fan interest, who in their right mind would schedule the steady diet of chumps we’ve seen this year? And yet, that’s exactly what our athletics leadership has done. Cruising through an unchallenging nonconference slate and then a series of embarrassing blowouts at the hands of ACC opponents (5 ACC losses by more than 15 points last season, and 7 the year before that, including 30 to UNC, 28 to FSU, 20 to Maryland twice)

  17. Greywolf 12/23/2008 at 12:18 PM #

    BJD’s Basketball Program Thoughts
    “First, stop watching this team as if had (or has) a chance to be good.”

    I say forget about making the NCAAs. Forget about having to beat UNChoke and Dook. Just observe the games and see where we need to improve. What do we need to practice? Do this and our record takes care of itself.

    Ever wonder how the coaches watch the game tapes? Is it to see the mistakes the players make? Maybe. Who to bench? Game tapes would be useful in fault-finding and blame for loses. We don’t need to be carelessly throwing players under the bus. 😉

    How about a philosophy, “We play the game to find out what we need to practice.” What would the Marquette game tell us about our needs. Every game could be successful because we learned something else that if correction were put in, we would be closer to being a good team.

    But aren’t practices suppose to be used to prepare for the next game? I’ll bet the really good teams do that. But we are not a really good team. Maybe we got it all wrong for this stage of our development.

    Is the best we can do, WTNY? IMNSHO we take a page from TOB’s book and develop the talent you need to win.

  18. CStanley 12/23/2008 at 12:25 PM #

    Par Shooter
    “You guys will all feel much better once the numbness sets in. I’m probably a bad fan but I finally let go of LTR seats this year and I’ve honestly forgotten about our only 2 TV games until the next morning’s paper. The extra free time and lack of anguish are really nice.”

    Yet you take the time to come on here and post that. I call BS.

  19. Gene 12/23/2008 at 12:37 PM #

    “Face it, this program was at an absolute crossroads when HS left for the desert. We were teetering at high-mediocre and needed a push to get where we all want to be. Fowler completely botched the hire and now we’re back to the Les Robinson days.”

    Blah, blah, blah…yawn…

    The sky fell on this program when Simmons and Brackman didn’t return, after Herb left and 2/3’s of the incoming freshman class didn’t join the program and we had only 6 scholarship players.

    I also wonder why Herb kept saving his scholarships. We had three walk-ons his last year here, if I remember correctly – Roach, Albritton and Nieman.

    Any coach would have trouble given the hand Lowe inherited. The only quick cure is a 5-6 man class. If it doesn’t happen in 2009, it may well happen for 2010. Otherwise we just have to deal with sucking.

    We had an above average program, which lost too many players too fast. Add in season ending and potentially career altering injuries to Johny Thomas and Farnold Degand last year (of our 2007 recruiting class) and I’m not sure exactly what people expect?

    Degand clearly isn’t what he was before blowing out his knee and I expect the same goes for Thomas. So from the 2007 class, due to injury and the early departure of Hickson, there’s only one healthy player who can effectively contribute, Tracy Smith.

    To get a program back, after losing players, takes a few years. Injuries and early departures don’t help that along and that’s the problem we have now.

  20. Gene 12/23/2008 at 12:38 PM #

    “With all respect, name a freshman point guard who started for a successful team ”

    Lawson, at UNC.

  21. old13 12/23/2008 at 12:40 PM #

    As I’ve said numerous times, nothing’s going to change in Wolfpack athletics as long as Foulup is AD and the Good-Ol’-Boy Mediocrityquo System rules NCSU. And the SID has no idea of how to sell Wolfpack Athletics, which can’t help recruiting very much. The one bright spot is TOB for whom I give no credit to Foulup because TOB initiated the hire and Foulup merely signed on the dotted line. Although I do hope that he eventually works out to be a builder of the basketball program, Sid was completely the wrong hire at the time – merely the act of a desparate AD who was in way over his head in conducting a coaching search for a major program. As for the rest of Wolfpack athletics, just go to TheACC.com and check out the Pack’s position in the standings for each individual sport (where applicable.) It doesn’t look any different than it did nine years ago!

  22. redfred2 12/23/2008 at 12:41 PM #

    Some of you guys, the same guys that were calling Fells “THE MAN” and “Our Defensive Stopper”, and the same ones who have TRASHED Trevor Ferguson at every opportunity in the past, need to make a real effort to just stay away from the keyboard.

    This is not a very sound group of BB players, AND, no matter how you want to paint it, the team’s nucleus IS still VERY MUCH comprised of players that WERE here BEFORE Sidney Lowe ever arrived in Raleigh.

  23. Classof89 12/23/2008 at 12:54 PM #

    and what was Lawson’s national recruiting ranking, compared to Mays? And what level of talent did Lawson have surrounding him, compared to Mays? Trust me, Mays isn’t the answer, at least not this year.

    Edit: Here were Lawson’s credentials as a frosh at UNC:

    Ty Lawson led Oak Hill Academy to a 42-1 record as a senior (won their first 42 games). Ty Lawson was first-team USA Today All-America selection. Ty Lawson averaged 23.8 points, 9.1 assists and five steals in 2006 Ty Lawson shot 63 percent from the floor, including 42 percent from three-point range. Ty Lawson had a season-high 37 points, one of nine games in which he scored 30 or more and a season-high 18 assists and had double-digit assists 18 times. Ty Lawson played for coach Steve Smith. Ty Lawson participated in McDonald’s All-Star Game, Jordan Classic and Nike Hoop Summit. McDonald’s and Parade All-America selection and had 17 points and six assists in Nike Hoop Summit. Ty Lawson was Most Valuable Player at Oak Hill in 2005, Most Valuable Player at World Juniors Tournament in France in June 2005, and attended Bishop McNamara High School in Forestville, Md., for two years.

  24. Rick 12/23/2008 at 12:56 PM #

    ” the team’s nucleus IS still VERY MUCH comprised of players that WERE here BEFORE Sidney Lowe ever arrived in Raleigh.”

    Yes a starting five of Mays, Ferg, Thomas, Smith and Williams (all Lowe recruits) would be oh so much better.

  25. ncsuftw01 12/23/2008 at 12:58 PM #

    Well, for what it’s worth we should have had more than 0.4 seconds to shoot that ball. Closer to 0.8 or 0.9. I don’t get why they didn’t review the clock, every buzzer beating game I’ve watched like that they (just about) ALWAYS review the clock.

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