A View from the Cheap Seats

College football is great because it offers its fans the most exciting week-to-week regular season of any sport. I spend nearly every Saturday during the fall either tailgating outside Carter-Finley or watching far too much SEC – and, this season, Big XII South – football on TV. But unlike college basketball, which builds over the course of four months towards conference tournaments and March Madness, where true champions are decided on the court, college football’s regular season far surpasses its anti-climactic, awkward quagmire of a postseason.

College football is a world of Haves and Haves Not, and at the beginning of each season there are only a privileged few – perhaps a dozen, total – with any real shot at a national title. Cinderella doesn’t exist in college football. But the main problem with college football: Beyond the obvious, annual controversy surrounding the BCS (thanks Big XII South) is the awkward quagmire the bowl system has evolved into. Conference bowl tie-ins have not only created far too many bad match ups for the fans, but have also created an unfair system that extends invitations based not on merit but how well a team’s fans travel, while rewarding undeserving teams just to fulfill contractual obligations between each conference and its bowls.

Just making a bowl means very little anymore, considering nearly every 6-6 team in one of the BCS conferences is essentially guaranteed an invitation somewhere. It’s a system that has cheapened the meaning of the college football postseason while marginalizing the benchmark by which we the fans measure our program’s success, and in turn, that of our coach’s. Consider that in the past two seasons, with 12-game schedules the norm, that eight teams have finished with a losing record after bowl losses: in 2006, New Mexico (New Mexico Bowl), Alabama (Independence), Minnesota (Insight), and Iowa (Alamo); and in 2007, Nevada (New Mexico), UCLA (Las Vegas), Maryland (Emerald), and Colorado (Indepence). Quite simply, no 6-6 team deserves to be “rewarded” with a bowl invitation.

But I’m not promoting a playoff, because I don’t suffer naïveté. Any playoff that will create a fair system of determining a true national champion while simultaneously filling the Haves’ coffers is simply implausible. It’s not about academics or preserving the importance of the regular season, but rather the multi-millions in TV revenues and the logistics of travel over multiple weekends. The argument that it works in I-AA lacks merit, chiefly because most I-AA stadiums have capacity less than 20,000 and attendance relies almost entirely on the home crowd, while the lower seeds that are forced to travel often lose money in the playoffs. The I-AA national championship game has been played at Finley Stadium in Chattanooga since 1997, with an average attendance of only 17,422 during that span. Meanwhile, this season the BCS will pay out a total of $87.5 million and its stadiums have an average capacity of 77,058. While I do believe that a four-team playoff could work, it likely wouldn’t eliminate controversy – there will always be a fifth team that has an argument for being included.

For the foreseeable future, at least, the current bowl system will remain intact. With that established, I’m ecstatic that State is now bowl-eligible, even if we are “on the bubble.” And if the current system isn’t going to change, then the least we can do is exploit it for our own advantage.

So what if, instead of the current system by which the bowls select its teams, there was a bowl selection committee for conference tie-ins similar to that for the selection committee for the NCAA Tournament, where a team’s record over its past 10 games is taken into heavy consideration? There are nine bowl slots to fill, and of the ten bowl-eligible teams in the ACC, one will be left at home. Who gets in, and why?

Obviously in are division champions Boston College (9-3) and Virginia Tech (8-4), as well as Georgia Tech (9-3), Florida State (8-4), and Carolina (8-4). Clemson, Maryland, Miami, and Wake Forest are each 7-5, while State is 6-6. Over its final five games, State and Clemson were 4-1, Wake and Miami were 3-2 and Maryland was only 2-3. Wake, Miami, and Maryland each deserve bowl bids based on their winning records. So basically, the argument is reduced to which team deserves the final slot, State or Clemson.

Considering that both fan bases can be counted on to travel in large numbers to either Charlotte, D.C., or Nashville, the decision can be reduced to merit. Clemson handily defeated rival South Carolina 31-14 to end the season, but two of its wins over its final five games were over Duke and Virginia, the only two ACC teams with losing records. The Tigers also took advantage of two early-season victories over I-AA opponents The Citadel and South Carolina State, versus State’s lone victory over I-AA William & Mary.

Meanwhile, State was a better team than Clemson down the stretch, and was arguably better than anyone else in the conference during November, finishing with four consecutive conference wins, with three consecutive wins over bowl-eligible teams Wake Forest, Carolina, and Miami. Moreover, the Wolfpack had a turnover margin of 11-2 and outscored its four opponents 127-72. State can also showcase the conference’s most prolific quarterback in Russell Wilson, who led the ACC with a passer rating of 134.3 and in four November wins threw eight touchdowns with no interceptions and also rushed for two touchdowns.

However, Clemson did defeat an injury-riddled State 27-9 in September, and head-to-head victories should mean something.

In other words, I think it’s too close to call, so let’s hope something works out in our favor and we play in Nashville, Charlotte, or D.C. What do y’all think?

About LRM

Charter member of the Lunatic Fringe and a fan, loyal to a fault.

'08 Football

16 Responses to A View from the Cheap Seats

  1. ncsumatman 11/30/2008 at 4:49 PM #

    We will go bowling, period. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us jump WFU due to their inability to fill their own stadium, much less one far far away. (Since we are within 1 game of everyone as far as conference records go, aren’t we eligible for any bowl that wants us, from the Peach on down?)

    Anyways, the SEC has 9 tie-ins, but only 8 eligible teams. Assuming that UF and Bama play in a BCS bowl, that would leave them only 6 teams for 8 bowls, the Petro Sun and Papa Johns being left out in the cold. I would assume an ACC team could be picked up for these bowls.

    The Big 12 has 8 guaranteed slots (9 depending on the Gator Bowl), with only 7 eligible teams. I know these bowls could pull from eligible MAC, CUSA, WAC etc. teams, but I would think a BCS team would have the advantage.

  2. RBCRowdy 11/30/2008 at 4:53 PM #

    The new ESPN projections put Penn St and Ohio State in BCS bowls freeing up the Motor City Bowl where they penciled us in. Could be nice to play Ball State in my hometown.

  3. package5 11/30/2008 at 4:59 PM #

    Clemson has a winning record (6-5)so this is all moot

    LRM Note: Clemson has two wins over I-AA opponents, The Citadel and South Carolina State, only one of which they can count towards bowl eligibility, so technically, they’re 6-5 (thanks for catching my mistake, VAWolf).

  4. BoKnowsNCS71 11/30/2008 at 5:14 PM #

    From a financial standpoint, I think Charlotte wants us more. They know they will sell out all the tickets and State Fan will be there rain or shine. Keeps the money in the state of NC and give Charlotte a bug financial influx of cash. Plus we bring excitement and a motivated fan base while Clemson is in kind of no man’s land wondering who the Coach will be. That does not seem to me a big motivator for the Clemson fan to go spend a lot of money bowling. On the downside — they are close too.

    LRM Note: I’m curious just how much a State, Clemson, Carolina or even a Georgia Tech affects the local Charlotte economy, considering each of these schools has a very large portion of its fan base within just a few hours’ drive of the QC area, meaning fewer hotel rooms rented and fewer pre- and post-game restaurants visits. Just curious…

  5. highstick 11/30/2008 at 5:49 PM #

    Clemson is actually 7-5, but they can only count one of the Div I-aa wins as far as bowl eligibility. I am really disappointed with Spurrier and the Gamecocks. They could have and should have done us a favor yesterday!

    Clemson’s fan base would travel anywhere to a bowl since that’s what they live and die for! Assuming they might win, they’d lay claim to another mythical national championship next year.

    Believe me, Dumbo is in as head coach at Clempson! Beating South Carolina and finishing like he did, he actually deserves it!

  6. SuperStuff 11/30/2008 at 6:03 PM #

    I’m on the no 6-6 team should be bowling as well. Let’s face it. I’m only wishing for my team to go to a bowl because it’s my team. I want the extra practices, exposure, and chance to win another game for our program.

    LRM Note: That’s why a bowl — any bowl — is so important: extra practice for all those young freshmen and reshirts, and I’m not sure just how the impact of that can be measured.

  7. basspacker812 11/30/2008 at 6:58 PM #

    Speaking of wishful thinking, I’ve already received several emails from the Wolfpack Club offering a variety of bowl travel packages.

  8. cowdog 11/30/2008 at 8:29 PM #

    All ACC bowls except Orange are available based on the no less than 1 conference game separation rule.

    With the way we finished and the way we travel, who knows how many ACC teams we may ” jump.” With the possibility of better over all records from the ACC accepting potential at-larges, we are going to have us a nice little bowl game. Somewhere.

    I can tell you from personal experience that the extra practices and that one added game can mean a great deal to the growth of that team. Not a senior laden team, but a youngish one.

  9. choppack1 11/30/2008 at 9:44 PM #

    What I find funny is that no one is po’d about college basketball allowing NIT teams w/ a .500 record – and they routinely do that by playing a third of their schedule vs. crap opponents.

    I think it’s just a matter of perception. Obviously, whether folks say it or not, they think of bowls as the “big dance” equivalence – (otherwise, why care?).

    College football has the most unique season of any sport in America. While most other sports have playoffs that determine a champ on the field, college football uses a defacto 12 game round robin tournament. This season – and the assurance that you won’t face the team you just worked or lost a heartbraker to last Saturday, creates a desperation every Saturday (or Thursday) in the fall, that you just don’t have in any other sport for such a long period of time.

    I also find it amusing that folks are confusing the traditional bowl system w/ new conference tie ins (where once again the ACC’s commish was outmanuevered) and NCAA rules recently passed. The rules are well, utterly unfair, unless you operate under the stupid premise that the Sun Belt or MAC is as good as a BCS conference.

    LRM Note: You make an interesting point here contrasting non-BCS bowls with the NIT. In its simplest terms, you’re dead-on. However, I think it shows a prime example of a stark difference between college football and basketball, because while a bowl game — for the most part, ANY bowl game — is considered an achievement and has meaning, if only to each team’s fans, the reason no one is “po’d” about .500 teams in the NIT is that few people (yours truly, included) care anything about the NIT; it’s hardly considered a “reward” for major conferences, and pales in comparison to the most complete and exciting three-weekend event in all of sports that is March Madness. Unlike the NCAA Tournament, half of the bowl teams, whether its in the Motor City or the Rose Bowl, end their season in victory.

    I wrote a column last fall comparing the traditional system to the current one, and both have their merits, yet neither have solved the predominant issue, which is to determine an indisputable national champion.

  10. VaWolf82 11/30/2008 at 10:00 PM #

    so technically, they’re [Clemson] 6-6 just like us.

    So where did their sixth loss come from?

    LRM Note: Uh…I gave it to them to help our cause? (Just seeing if anyone was paying attention is all).

  11. choppack1 11/30/2008 at 10:53 PM #

    LRM – I’m really torn on a playoff.

    I see the value – and yes, even the need for a playoff. But, like you mention, the current system doesn’t end in heartbrake for most participants, and manages to create an enjoyable experience for those who attend the games.

    My biggest concern about a playoff is that it would really hurt enthusiasm for the NC States of the world. Like so many schools, we don’t go to big time bowl games, and I can’t think of any season where we’d have been a clear cut selection for even a 16 team playoff. For all the talk of cinderellas, the NCAA tournament hasn’t produced a non-big-time champion winner (sorry, UNLV doesn’t fall in the cinderella category).

    There may come a time when we need a playoff to save college football – I don’t think that’s the case right now. Here’s a hint – 2 sports have recently changed their format to produce an annual champion- has it really helped them?

  12. b 11/30/2008 at 11:56 PM #

    I think an 8 team, one extra week playoff is doable without changing the BCS significantly from a logistical standpoint.

    Take 8 BCS combatants and pit them against each other the week following the conference champiosnhips, either seeded or not in whatever fashion you wish. Then line the winners up against each other in the BCS bowls as the equivalent of the final four with the losers going at it in the other two bowls, with the same cycling of bowl pecking order. Say it’s the Orange Bowl’s year to host the championship game, then they get the loser’s bracket for their bowl game with the same rights to conference tie-ins that currently exist whenever possible. Then the two who are 2-0 will play each other in the championship game a week later than the traditional NYD bowls just like it currently is.

    I don’t think this would impact the bowl system as it is as significantly as the current Big 12 impasse. I understand there are rational reasons to resist this, and most of the reasons are financial, traditional, and there are political overtones. But this wouldn’t significantly cheapen the regular season or change the current system drastically. I understand this presents the chance of no #1-#2 matchup which defeats the initial purpose of the BCS, but replacing it with an on the field champion offsets that concern in my opinion.

  13. Astral Rain 12/01/2008 at 7:23 AM #

    My idea for a playoff would be hated by everyone, but here’s how I’d do it.

    8 team playoff.
    7 BCS conferences- each with 12 teams.
    The 8th slot would be given to a non-BCS team (Independent or Small Conference, who would get blown out)

    How I’d adjust the Conferences

    ACC, SEC, Big 12- kept as is.

    Big East- forced to take 4 more teams, my choices
    UCF, E.Carolina, Memphis, Marshall

    Big Ten- forced to take Notre Dame. If Notre Dame refuses, Iowa St. would move to the Big 10, and TCU moves to the Big 12, Colorado St. goes into WAC (See Below)

    Pac 10- forced to take UNLV and Nevada

    WAC- would be a cherrypick of western non-BCS top or big programs

    TCU
    BYU
    Utah
    Boise St.
    Fresno St.
    Hawaii
    New Mexico
    New Mexico St.
    SMU
    Wyoming
    Idaho
    San Diego State

    Playoffs- 7 Bowl games would be used
    Rose, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Cotton, GMAC (bowl for the Big 10), Peach

    Which Bowls are used in which round would be determined at the start of the year- 4/7yrs 1st round 2/7 2nd round 1/7 Championship

    Bowls are picked by the higher seeded team, they choose where they want to go

    BCS standings are used for seeding, and for determining the 8th team.

  14. LRM 12/01/2008 at 7:42 AM #

    Astral,

    Your playoff idea is interesting, but it relies exclusively on there being some central organization that has the power to “force” the conferences to realign, and that entity simply doesn’t exist. The NCAA provides oversight only, and the conferences — particularly in college football — operate entirely independently of the NCAA. The NCAA hasn’t created the current system, but rather the power conferences that formed first the Bowl Alliance in the early 90s and then the current BCS in the mid 90s.

    It’s really this simple: until a playoff system that can pay out to the power conferences a minimum of $17.5M, the BCS is here to stay.

    Seriously, though, who wouldn’t want to see a +1 this year? The winner of SEC Champ/Texas and Okla/USC play. How does that not make money?

  15. SEAT.5.F.2 12/01/2008 at 8:39 AM #

    Silver lining in the dark clouds forming on this issue.

    An extra game and more practice would be a great experience for the teams, but…

    Wouldn’t it be an interesting twist to the mentality of returning players for the ’09 campaign? They would have a sense of urgency that could potentially get them off to a fast start (would love to play South Carolina right now).

    The first half on the last 2 seasons (injury excuses or not) have been god awful and the aspirations of this staff have been set to high to repeat this trend.

    All that said, we sit pretty favorable if a few games go our way and certain teams finish 6-6. It would be awesome if a Bowl passed on ND because that they don’t seem competive enough in hopes to not lose viewers once the game is out of hand in the first half (6 yards total offense against So Cal!!!!)

  16. Tau837 12/01/2008 at 5:44 PM #

    Back when the BCS was 4 bowls and 8 teams, I felt the following was the appropriate plan for a playoff system:

    1. 8 teams.

    a. When I came up with this playoff system, this was the same as the number of BCS bowl teams, and thus would have left the rest of the bowl system intact.

    b. The driving reason for a playoff should be to ensure we crown the right champion… and 8 teams should be enough for this, since it is unlikely that a team that does not qualify for the playoff in this system would have had a legitimate shot.

    c. Going beyond 8 teams requires adding a fourth round to the playoffs, which might strengthen some arguments against a playoff system (academic impact, scheduling, travel, too many games physically).

    2. BCS conference champs get an automatic bid.

    Same as current BCS system. No reason to change it, since it is reasonable to assume each of the BCS conference champions is a legitimate contender.

    3. One wild card must be from outside BCS conferences.

    a. Keeps the Cinderella factor alive all season every year, and ensures there is at least one David vs. Goliath game every year.

    b. Provides more incentive to finish as the #1 seed – to get the presumed matchup against the presumed weakest team in the field. (Though it would be up to the committee to seed the teams.)

    c. This also makes the regular season even more important to the BCS conference teams, as they can count on only one BCS wild card team per season, and thus must win their conferences to ensure a bid. Note: No school, including Notre Dame, gets any special status in terms of earning this wild card spot. Use of a committee should help to ensure that the best team gets it each year.

    d. Best case, this adds drama just as it does to the NCAA basketball tournament. Worst case, the #1 seed earned an easy first round game as a reward for finishing first.

    4. A committee is used to select the wild cards and to seed the teams.

    Because no formula, Sagarin ratings, etc., can automatically take all important factors into account. The problem is the formula is devoid of judgement and context. For example, take margin of victory. If a team has a slim margin of victory but played a very difficult schedule and won almost all of its games (e.g., Oregon in 2001, Ohio State in 2002), it isn’t reasonable to penalize them for a low margin of victory. But if a team plays an easy schedule and has a slim margin of victory perhaps it should be a factor (i.e., a negative, since perhaps it should have been higher). The problem with the formula is that margin of victory is either in or out. A committee is free to consider the context.

    If the committee chooses to use the BCS ranking formula, Sagarin ratings, etc., as a tool in its decision making, that is its choice. But they do not have to blindly follow any particular system. All the same reasons it is appropriate in basketball apply here. Also, it preserves a bit of the unknown until the final conference championship game is played, which should only add to the drama down the stretch of the regular season.

    5. Higher seeds play at home in the first round.

    a. It is too much to expect fans to travel on three consecutive weekends.

    b. This provides incentive for all contenders to impress the committee, via their scheduling and their play, since it gives them home field competitive advantage and earns more revenue for the schools who host the games.

    6. BCS bowl sites are used for the “Final 4″ games, with a rotation system used.

    a. Primarily to appease those bowl committees and to try to retain a bit of the old bowl tradition while still facilitating a needed playoff.

    b. The odd bowls out could still be played, just not as part of the playoff… or they could be moved to special season opening games… or they could just be skipped on a rotating basis. Or instead of a rotation system, we could just choose to cut two of them and always use the other three, simply rotating which is the title game. Or whatever.

    That’s about it. Some of the commonly used arguments against a playoff system:

    1. Too many games for the kids (academically and/or physically).

    Not really. All these kids would play a bowl game anyway. Only 4 teams will play more than the normal amount. And only 2 teams will play 2 extra games. And it is done at other levels of football. As for the academic side of it, the playoff system would be timed so the second round of the playoffs is around New Year’s Day and the championship about a week later, so the extra game(s) come after fall semester final exams and before the start of the spring semester at most schools, meaning there is literally no academic impact from extra games.

    2. Will reduce the current emphasis on the regular season, which is what makes college football great.

    On the contrary, the fact that at most 7 BCS conference teams can make it, less than the current system, with only one conference getting 2 teams, at least maintains the current sense of urgency. And the need to impress a human committee, rather than a static formula, adds to the intrigue/drama.

    3. OOC scheduling would no longer be important.

    Not true, because even if you qualify, you want the highest seed possible for (a) best matchup (b) home game in first round. In an 8 team format, it is just as important as it is now in the BCS format, if not more so. Now it is important to avoid OOC scheduling from being a reason the committee bypasses your team as a wild card and/or for a higher seed.

    4. A playoff would ruin things for other teams and fans.

    Not true with an 8 team playoff. Does it ruin things now for teams that are not BCS contenders? Of course not. All the existing bowls would continue as they do today. How many people besides N.C. State fans care if N.C. State makes a bowl? And wouldn’t those same people (our fans) still care if we make the same bowl under this system? I think so.

    5. Will take away from the other bowls.

    Similar to the previous argument, this is false. Already there is a distinction made between the BCS bowls and non-BCS bowls. It would simply maintain that same distinction. Who currently cares about the Motor City bowl? The locals and fans of the teams chosen to play in it. Why would those same people not still care equally about the Motor City bowl? They would.

    6. Fans cannot travel to the games.

    First round games are home games for the high seeds, with the last two rounds played at the neutral BCS bowl sites. So four teams travel for the first round, four travel for the second round, and two travel for the third round. A total of 10 road games amongst 8 teams. It would probably be fairly rare that any team would travel 3 times, since it would have to be a 5-8 seed who reaches the title game. Meanwhile, this is offset at least a little bit for the fans of the top 4 seeds, who get an extra playoff game at home, likely a more exciting game than any most of those fans get today… and those first round games would not require much of a traveling fan base from the lower seeds to sell out, anyway.

    7. Less money.

    This begs the question, to who?

    It seems to me that even more tickets would be sold in 7 playoff games that includes 3 of the current BCS bowls than in 5 BCS bowl games. TV revenue should be higher for a college football playoff than for the current BCS format. How to divvy it up appropriately could be worked out.

    So who loses out financially? Those affiliated with the specific BCS bowls that would no longer be played that are raking it in right now. This is probably the biggest hurdle, though it shouldn’t be. Unfortunately, it’s probably enough to prevent a playoff.

    IMO this would be much more exciting than the BCS format. I am a college football fan, but I don’t watch every BCS game every year, because I don’t find some matchups compelling. I’d be much more likely to watch in a playoff format, because it would add to the drama and excitement.

    I am convinced that such a system would eclipse March Madness and be the most popular annual sports event other than possibly the Super Bowl.

    I could go on, but I’m sure you have had enough if you even made it this far. I’d be interested to hear some reaction.

Leave a Reply