41% attrition rate from 2005 & 2006 classes

'08 Football Fans Football Recruiting General95

Here is a good article from Rob Daniels of the Greensboro News & Record that provides some statistical insight into what we all know and are feeling – NC State’s football program is depleted of depth and currently undergoing a major rebuilding project.

Hopefully our fans have begun to realize that we are in a total rebuild mode and potentially several years behind other schools who made coaching changes at the same time we hired TOB.

Neither is this a watershed season in the evolution of Wolfpack football. The program O’Brien inherited from Chuck Amato in December 2006 was on shaky numerical ground. Of the 41 players State signed in 2005 and 2006, 17 are already gone. That 41 percent attrition rate far exceeds the personnel losses sustained by the other three ACC programs that changed administrations at the same time. (North Carolina’s is at 18 percent; Miami has lost nine of 37 players from those classes or 24 percent; and Boston College, which O’Brien left to come to Raleigh, has seen six of 35 signees or 17 percent head elsewhere.)

Additionally, we have a writer from the N&O who takes NC State fans to task over the booing in Carter Finley on Saturday. I am reluctant to tackle this issue with any commentary as this topic is right up Jeff’s alley.

This is not an argument against booing college players. They get the scholarships. They accept the attention. There’s plenty of good, and they have to take the bad with it. Such is life.

The way State had played through the first five quarters of the season, the Pack probably deserved to get booed, as many State teams and quarterbacks have been booed before.

But this wasn’t just another quarterback struggling to complete a pass. Evans grew up sitting in those same stands, the Broughton High grad as much a State fan as anyone who voiced displeasure with his play.

“I love N.C. State football, and I love this team,” Evans said when Wilson was made the starter in August. “I love my teammates, and I love this university. So I’m really going to do anything I can to help this team win football games.”

That may not matter to some, but it should. If there was ever a player State fans were willing to cut a little slack, wouldn’t it be — shouldn’t it be — this one?

SFN Note – We will update this entry later in the day with more commentary on the ‘booing’

'08 Football Fans Football Recruiting General

95 Responses to 41% attrition rate from 2005 & 2006 classes

  1. EverettBeez 09/09/2008 at 7:59 AM #

    Riding around yesterday afternoon I was listening to Paul Finebaum (sp?) and the Coach he was interviewing – I think it was Pat Dye – totally trashed NC State’s QB play against South Crapolina.

    To paraphrase – NC States two qbs were awful, totally awful and they still moved the ball against USC (they were discussing the Vandy win). They couldn’t throw the ball further then their arm.

    That phrase stuck out, they couldn’t throw it further then their arm. I knew instantly who Dye had in mind.

    The situation is all the more painful because of DE’s pedigree, where and how he grew up. I hate it for him, for myself and for the team all of us love. But when we are trashed like that on a nationally syndicated show, with cause, a change must occur.

  2. Noah 09/09/2008 at 8:07 AM #

    The attrition rate is something I’ve really been harping on. Amato’s last class with Holiday was supposed to really be something we could hang our hat on.

    Guys like Kyle Newell…remember him? 6-5 receiver (or even a Willie Young-type DE) out of PA that we beat UVa and Penn State for. Chad Green was supposed to be another immediate impact at DE, coming from JUCO. Mike Greco, Avery Vogt, Quinton Brown, Levin Neal, Doug Palmer,…those guys are supposed to be our upperclassmen this year. Brandon Jeffires and Greg Peterson were supposed to transfer in and immediately impact the lines.

    I don’t care who you are, I don’t care where your classes are ranked. If 40-50 percent of your classes never play a down of football, you’re in deep trouble. At the absolute very least, they have to stick around long enough to at least contribute depth. Even if your five-star stud recruit turns out to be something less than advertised, he has to be there to backup someone else. Otherwise, you’re going to be looking at your depth chart and wondering, “Who the hell are these guys?” because you have about five walk-ons on the two-deep.

    One of the big things that just killed MOC was the constant attrition in his classes. He was being outrecruited by Mack Brown and George Welsh, but it was the five to seven guys every year that either wouldn’t show up, wouldn’t qualify academically, would bolt for another school at the last minute, or would get arrested.

    O’Brien ran into that this year with Ahmad Jaradat. I understand he was homesick and had a girlfriend and all of that. Ontario IS a long way away. But that’s a scholarship and a roster spot that we could have given to someone else who WOULD have contributed and WOULD be here in four years.

    I remember reading somewhere that you can’t make up lost sleep. If you get two hours of rest tonight, you can’t sleep 10 hours tomorrow and make it up. You’re still going to be a little groggy. You just have to try and get a full night’s rest over a period of time. The same thing is true with roster attrition. Even if we give out a full set of scholarships this year, those guys who quit last year are going to be making a hole until their scholarship-window closes. Even if a warm body fills that hole next year, it’s going to be someone who is a year behind on experience. It’s going to be someone who is a year behind on learning the playbook and learning how to practice and what to do in certain situations. In four years, that missing senior is still going to be felt.

  3. howlie 09/09/2008 at 8:14 AM #

    “Even if a warm body fills that hole next year, it’s going to be someone… a year behind on experience… [&] a year behind on learning the playbook… In four years, that missing senior is still going to be felt.”

    Excellent point.

  4. Noah 09/09/2008 at 8:31 AM #

    I’m going to struggle on the names and years, but I think this is an actual example of how attrition kills you for more than one year.

    Back in the mid-90s, we had several players get arrested for breaking into cars on Hillsborough Street. The two that I recall were DT Brian Brooks and DE Chris McNeil. I think it was a year later that Darwin Walker’s mama made him transfer to Tennessee.

    So instead of a DL that featured Walker (who is still playing in the NFL), George Williams (who played with the redskins), McNeil (who set a league record for sacks after transferring to NC Central) and Brian Brooks (who was a 6-6, 270 pound DT), we had Williams and three buckets of warm spit.

    What were the weaknesses of those subsequent teams? The DL. Remember the game against Alabama in 1996? I think that was Barnette’s first start. There was a play where the Alabama quarterback got flushed out of the pocket. And our DE (I think it was Millbrook’s own Brad Collins) had a clean shot at him. Collins came running in and slammed right into the QB….and just slid right off of him. It was like a Tom & Jerry cartoon. Collins might as well have stepped on a rake.

    So, we go 3-8 two years in a row and O’Cain has to get some immediate help. He goes the JUCO route and brings in Greg Derrick and Andre Wray. Both of those guys played reasonably well. I can remember both of them making plays that helped us win games. So we go 6-5 the next year and 7-5 the year after that. But instead of bringing in high schoolers who would have been upperclassmen when Amato gets here, we’ve got empty roster spots. So Amato has to go get Shawn Price, Terrane Chapman and Terrance Martin. And while he brought in high schoolers as well, the year that we had such a dominant, senior-laden DL was the year AFTER Philip Rivers leaves.

  5. Daily Update 09/09/2008 at 8:36 AM #

    To add to what Noah said, I think we have had a lot of attrition from TOB’s first two classes as well. Someone help me with this.

    2007(22 commitments): http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/a.z?s=178&p=9&c=8&yr=2007

    T. Barnes(strange considering he played last year)
    K. Linney

    2008 (26 commitments): http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/a.z?s=178&p=9&c=8&yr=2008

    Tobias Palmer(at JUCO)
    Roy Mangram (at JUCO)
    Sam Jones (trying to finish core courses still)
    Ahmad Jaradat (gone back to Canada)
    Thomas Locust (decided to go elsewhere)
    Mart Everett (grades, destination unknown)

    Any other I have missed? Obviously, Palmer, Mangram, Everett and Jones may still enroll.

  6. choppack1 09/09/2008 at 8:40 AM #

    Noah – McNeil actually played at A&T – but you’re right, he did have a league record for sacks. I think the break-ins were at the movie theater off Western Blvd.

    Good point on the attrition. I was looking through the program for 2006 – and there were a lot of talented guys who just aren’t here any more.

  7. SMD 09/09/2008 at 8:44 AM #

    I would ask WHY is this attrition level so great? Is there something different about the type of kids Amato went after those last two years? Is TOB doing anything different that will correct the problem?

    On the booing – while I don’t ever believe in booing college players – it certainly is part of the territory they have to accept with such a high profile role. The N&O writer basically says as much and then asserts that Evans should perhaps be immune from it. No dice. His legacy, story, faith, etc. are great, but it doesn’t make him different from any other player.

    Having said that, I do feel bad for Evans. He’s in waaaaay over his head. I can’t remember who said this (probably Noah) but everyone forgets that Evans was a walk-on and would not have been offered a scholarship had Brent Schaefer not transferred.

    I also feel bad for Johnny Evans. That’s really gotta suck to call a game where they yank your kid to a chorus of boos and then the other guy comes in to a hero’s welcome. But, such is the price of being associated with college athletics.

  8. SEAT.5.F.2 09/09/2008 at 8:45 AM #

    One theory is that TOB needed to get a full class in and on the double. Took some risky bets along the way; he has been noted as being to able to spot talent very early on and then had the benefit of getting to know the character of the individual over a longer period of time.

    Notice that star ranking have gone down for ’09, but descriptions of the committed players attitudes are excellent. You want attrition to go up, then get young men who have attempted to mature and recognize reality by the age of 18.

  9. Dr. BadgerPack 09/09/2008 at 8:46 AM #

    “If there was ever a player State fans were willing to cut a little slack, wouldn’t it be — shouldn’t it be — this one?”

    I’m curious as to what qualifies as “a little slack”?? Didn’t he nearly get 2 years of slack? Perhaps we should give him a get out of jail free card?

    Afterall, he will surely exceed ESPN’s projected 2008 stat line.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=159655

    Seriously, this is the first time I can recall him SINGLY being booed. Surely there were times before where the opportunity could have presented itself. The numbers are just god awful.

    He’s a good kid. He’s well spoken. He tries. He’s NOT A GOOD QUARTERBACK! A large contingent of State fans are smart enough to realize booing a performance is NOT A PERSONAL ATTACK. If a kids father went to State and he flunked a test, should we give him a passing mark because he deserves some slack? Booing/cheering is a performance evaluation once you get into game time. I don’t recall him being booed in introductions– that is when a player, no matter how crappy, is getting his “respect,” whether it is earned or inherited.

    Again, booing is not a personal attack when it comes from a knowledgeable fan; it’s voicing displeasure. In fact, I’d say booing during a game is a MUCH preferable option to writing slamming posts, questioning articles from the media and blabbering on the talk shows after the fact. Chris Lofton stunk up the joint for a while in Tennessee hoops last year. The criticism didn’t come in the arena; it came outside.

    For all to see in print, and have on tape- word for word; sentence for sentence. Of course these people didn’t know Lofton was coming back from cancer. What do you think hurts an athlete in that extreme situation more (THAT by the way is an athlete that DESERVES A PASS)– day after day, word for word, individually in the press? Or the booing as a collective from the fans in the heat of the moment?

  10. Noah 09/09/2008 at 9:00 AM #

    Evans was not a walk-on. But he was the absolute last guy to get a scholarship offer in that class.

    I think the offer came on NSD too.

    The only two times I’ve booed a specific player for NCSU were: Koren Robinson, in that game against Ark. State when he was taunting the defender on his way to the endzone…and fumbled the football, and an OL (Derek Morris maybe?) who picked up the world’s dumbest personal foul penalty in a critical moment after the play was dead. I think the entire place booed him and I think the OL coach went out on the field and yanked him off by the facemask afterwards.

  11. Daily Update 09/09/2008 at 9:02 AM #

    Palmer went to Georgia Military Academy which is a Junior College.

    http://northcarolinastate.scout.com/2/771495.html

    He is quoted as saying he will go there for 3 semesters before enrolling again at NC State which means he wasn’t close to qualifying for NCAA minimums. He has to spend at least 3 semesters at a JUCO and receive an associates degree to be admitted to NC State or any other ACC school.

  12. EverettBeez 09/09/2008 at 9:07 AM #

    I don’t know how it works, but this attrition rate also hurts the University with the NCAA & scholarships. Just like poor grades or failing out, transferring and failing to graduate hurt the programs score.

  13. Noah 09/09/2008 at 9:14 AM #

    Locust is the guy who is gone and ain’t coming back.

    I have a friend who is in grad school at Michigan. He’s bemoaning the fact that they just lost some big-time QB recruit. And I had to explain to him that THIS is the time that you want to lose recruits. (Especially if you’re Michigan, because you still have two OTHER good QB commitments.)

    What kills you is when the guy who tells you that he’s coming decides on f-ing national signing day that he’s actually going to Tennessee. And he just craps right in the punch bowl. Hellloooo Mr. Schaeffer. Does anyone really think that guy wouldn’t be starting here?

  14. vtpackfan 09/09/2008 at 9:19 AM #

    ^ Some here told us that some of the big boys in Vaughn Towers didn’t like Amato so that had all to do with the cutting of ties. Knowing the effort the BOT, Chancellor and Fowler put into the NCAA score it makes me wonder if the walls were closing in on him from all sides.

    I’m sure someone here “in the know” has intimate knowlegde that the Academic instituition of NCSU had no idea that we had a bad situation going on and that it too the caring touch of a heavy-handed hog farmer to take the reigns.

  15. old13 09/09/2008 at 9:35 AM #

    Isn’t this the kind of thing that an AD is supposed to ride heard on – not a “heavy-handed hog farmer!”

  16. BJD95 09/09/2008 at 9:35 AM #

    I don’t boo college players. Period. But I understand the fans’ frustration. Once other schools had a decent amount of film on him, Daniel Evans became unplayable at QB.

    The numbers are undeniable – 6.0 (and under) YPA and more INTs than TDs in both his RS-Soph and RS-Jr seasons. That’s even after factoring in a handful of really solid games (Florida State 2 years ago, ECU last year).

    I think people were actually MORE frustrated because Evans seemed to be signled out for “criticism immunity” by a handful of Daniel Evans “fanboyz” like Luke DeCock (He’s a nice kid! Johnny Evans’ son! Fellowship of Christian Athletes!). And frankly, I think most of the booing came when Evans came back onto the field (rather than going off it), which I interpret mostly as booing the coaching decision to put Evans back on the field.

    This is big-time college football, not intramurals – and nobody gets a special pass at this level. Did I boo? No. Because I don’t boo ANY college athletes – NOT because Daniel Evans is a “special” case.

  17. Girlfriend in a Coma 09/09/2008 at 9:38 AM #

    First of all, I cannot decipher what vtpackfan just wrote at all. It comes across like “Robowolf” or whatever that automatic poster thing was back in the day.

    As far as the booing goes, I will let booing expert Brock explain this in more detail, but I have 2 points. 1) IMO the booing (and other “phrase yelling” that was going on at C-F in the first half Saturday) was directed at TOB and/or Bible, not Evans. That as my perception. 2) The booing is more a product of overall fan frustration than it was about any specific play or plays going on duing that one game. It was/in about the money everday fans have put into the revenue programs over the past several years coupled with the HORRENDOUS performance of those teams during that period. I think we have had it with the crap teams — and the offensive play in the first half was just a perfect example of complete garbage attemting to be passed off as a competetive product. Think about it. By definition, who was booing Saturday? People who own LTRs, who came to a game against a 1-AA opponent after we just got drilled on national TV to the tune of 30 something to zero, 12 hours after a tropical storm came through Raleigh. These are fans who are beyond loyal and who have put up with a hell of a lot to see QB play that was so bad that it defies description.

  18. StateFans 09/09/2008 at 9:49 AM #

    This conversation is absolutely amazing. Look at the level of intellect, information and tone of this compared to all of the idiot boards out there. Thanks to everyone for the fantastic insight. Keep it coming!

    Additionally, does anyone have any numbers – or time to compile numbers – regarding the current composition of our roster and scholarship availability? That would take this thing to the next level.

    …more later…

  19. Daily Update 09/09/2008 at 10:22 AM #

    Statefans: Toddl from packpride has a fantastic chart with everything you are looking for. I couldn’t get it to cut and paste very well.

    http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=178&f=2517&t=2522420&p=4

  20. Trip 09/09/2008 at 10:31 AM #

    “He’s a good kid. He’s well spoken. He tries. He’s NOT A GOOD QUARTERBACK!”

    A lot of kids that go to NC State such as myself probably fall under this criteria. I can throw a foosball about 10 yards too!

    I’m on the fence as far as booing goes. I think it looks classless, but if the person that is being booed can easily be changed, then I see no reason why not. *Cough* Swap quarterbacks *cough* It’d be one thing if DE was our only choice and he truly is trying his best (which I have no doubt of)… but he’s not. We have Beck, who makes dumb decisions but atleast he scores.

  21. Ismael 09/09/2008 at 10:41 AM #

    There’s also someone on TheWolfWeb in the NC State Football Recruiting thread that has a running/updated tally of available scholarships, etc. Seems updated.

    http://www.thewolfweb.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=508086&page=21

    Scholarships Count
    16 Available for 2009
    -9 2009 Commits (Dowdy, Cheek, Slay, Washington, Ward, Proctor, Good, Haynes, Payton)
    +3 Class of 2008 who didn’t qualify (Palmer, Everett, Mangram)
    +6 Transfer or Left Team (Jaradat, Locust, Golder, Burke, T. Barnes, Linney)
    ————————————-
    16 Scholarships Remaining

  22. PhilipRiversWannabe 09/09/2008 at 10:51 AM #

    What happened with Golder? Also, can someone list all the players from 05 and 06 that have left?

  23. tvp1 09/09/2008 at 10:51 AM #

    BJD: That post reminded me of the famous Dan Hawkins rant:

    Go play intramurals, brother.

    On the attrition point, the 06 class really killed us. It was a small (20 player), low-ranked class to begin with…and now 10 of those guys are gone (and two more are out for the year with injuries). Of the 10 left, 4 are WR. These are the Juniors and R-Sos that are the foundation of most teams’ two-deeps.

  24. Sw0rdf1sh 09/09/2008 at 10:59 AM #

    Well, the good news is we have Scholy’s a plenty! I think?!?

    I’m with ^Girlfriend too…

    I also don’t boo college players, but I booed the hell out of the offensive play as a whole after that series. (I did not cheer when Beck came in, but did on his first long strike)
    I don’t care if I’m in my LTR’s or watching it on the 50″ at home….I love my team, I love football, but if it sucks I’m allowed to let my emotions show.

    Now let’s go to Clempson and shock the world! (yes, I’m a believer and no I haven’t been drinking yet today)

  25. PhilipRiversWannabe 09/09/2008 at 11:04 AM #

    I think we have more of a chance against Clemson than most people do. Their OL is inexperienced and several starters on the OL are out with injuries. Our DL is very good at getting to the QB. Our D leads the nation in interceptions and is 4th in sacks. Bring it on, Tammy!

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