The State of State Part Four – AD Battle Royale

In previous entries, several commenters had expressed an interest in some historical statistics for comparison purposes. Below are some conference title and winning percentage stats over the last 22 years for the past five Athletic Directors at NC State.

Notes:
• For the 1989-90 season, Jim Valvano was AD until October, Harold Hopfenburg was interim AD until April when Todd Turner was hired. For this analysis, since he was AD for the majority of the season, Hopfenburg will be considered the AD of record for 1989-90.

• ACC championship stats are only for the 20 sports in which all 5 ADs fielded teams (Softball is excluded).

• The win/loss percentage statistics are only for the sports with a win/loss record which excludes cross country, golf and track. Those sports are included in the conference titles.

• W Soccer was not an ACC sport in Valvano’s first season (1986-87).

• Gymnastics was not included because they were not in a conference until 1996.

• Historical data for rifle was not available.

Years
• Jim Valvano—3 (1986-87 to 1988-89)
• Harold Hopfenburg—1 (1989-90)
• Todd Turner—6 (1990-91 to 1995-96)
• Les Robinson—4 (1996-97 to 1999-2000)
• Lee Fowler—8 (2000-01 to 2007-08)

ACC Championships
1. Turner—15
2. Fowler—13 (14 w/Softball)
3. Valvano—12
4. Robinson—7
5. Hopfenburg—3

ACC Championships Per Year
1. Valvano—4.00
2. Hopfenburg—3.00
3. Turner—2.50
4. Robinson—1.75
5. Fowler—1.63 (1.75 w/Softball)

ACC Championship Sports
1. Valvano—9
2. Turner—8
3. Hopfenburg—3
3. Fowler—3 (4 w/Softball)
5. Robinson—2

ACC Titles by Year by AD for the 20 Common ACC Sports
acc-titles-by-year.JPG

Football ACC Winning Percentage
1. Valvano–.619
2. Hopfenburg–.571
3. Turner–.565
4. Robinson–.438
4. Fowler–.438
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M Basketball ACC Winning Percentage
1. Valvano–.619 (1 ACC title)
2. Fowler–.469
3. Hopfenburg–.429
4. Robinson–.328
5. Turner–.298
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W Basketball ACC Winning Percentage
1. Hopfenburg–.857
2. Robinson–.641
3. Valvano–.619 (1 ACC title)
4. Turner–.543 (1 ACC title)
5. Fowler–.525
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Baseball ACC Winning Percentage
1. Hopfenburg–.667
2. Valvano–.593
3. Turner–.568 (1 ACC title)
4. Robinson–.522
5. Fowler–.512
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Volleyball ACC Winning Percentage
1. Valvano–.895 (1 ACC title)
2. Turner–.258
3. Robinson–.188
4. Hopfenburg–.167
5. Fowler–.021
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Wrestling ACC Winning Percentage
1. Valvano–.778 (2 ACC titles)
2. Fowler–.628 (4 ACC titles)
3. Turner–.600 (2 ACC titles)
4. Robinson–.550
5. Hopfenburg–.500 (1 ACC title)
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M Soccer ACC Winning Percentage
1. Turner–.500 (1 ACC title)
2. Valvano–.389
3. Robinson–.250
4. Fowler–.182
5. Hopfenburg–.167
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W Soccer ACC Winning Percentage
1. Hopfenburg–.750
2. Valvano–.571 (1 ACC title)
3. Turner–.517
4. Robinson–.259
5. Fowler–.164
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M Swimming ACC Winning Percentage
1. Turner–.725 (1 ACC title)
2. Robinson–.640
3. Hopfenburg–.600
4. Valvano–.375
4. Fowler–.375
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W Swimming ACC Winning Percentage
1. Turner–.400
2. Valvano–.250
3. Fowler–.234
4. Hopfenburg–.200
5. Robinson–.167
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M Tennis ACC Winning Percentage
1. Valvano–.350
2. Fowler–.227
3. Robinson–.188
4. Turner–.170
5. Hopfenburg-.000
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W Tennis ACC Winning Percentage
1. Turner–.255
2. Robinson–.219
3. Fowler–.213
4. Valvano–.150
5. Hopfenburg–.143
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ACC Championships for non-win/loss record sports:

M Cross Country ACC Championships
Valvano—1
Turner—3
Robinson—4
Fowler—5

W Cross Country ACC Championships
Valvano—2
Hopfenburg—1
Turner—5
Robinson—3
Fowler—4

M Golf ACC Championships
Hopfenburg—1

M Indoor Track ACC Championships
Valvano—1

M Outdoor Track ACC Championships
Valvano—2
Turner—1

Softball ACC Championships
Fowler—1

Some Summary Statistics
• Lee Fowler has a lower ACC winning percentage than Todd Turner in 9 of the 12 common win/loss sports. Fowler leads in M Basketball, Wrestling and M Tennis. (Men’s Basketball was on NCAA probation and punitive academic restrictions under much of Turner’s tenure)

• Compared to the previous four ADs, Fowler ranks last (or tied for last) in ACC winning percentage in 6 of the 12 common win/loss sports.

• Compared to Les Robinson, Fowler’s predecessor, 4 of the 12 common win/loss sports have improved their ACC winning percentage under Fowler (M Basketball, Wrestling, W Swimming, M Tennis).

• NC State has never won more than 3 ACC titles in one season under Fowler, a mark surpassed by Todd Turner 3 times.

• As a 1996 graduate of NC State, I was in school for the last 4 years of Turner’s tenure as AD in which State won 7 ACC titles. This year’s State graduates in the class of 2008 will have won 5 ACC titles (including Softball) during their 4 years.

• Please feel free to share any other conclusions or patterns that you may have noticed.

Coming Sometime Soon in Part Five
Bar graphs galore–color coordinated with ACC winning percentages for each school!

About WV Wolf

Graduated from NCSU in 1996 with a degree in statistics. Born and inbred in West "By God" Virginia and now live in Raleigh where I spend my time watching the Wolfpack, the Mountaineers and the Carolina Hurricanes as well as making bar graphs for SFN. I'm @wvncsu on the Twitter machine.

AD & Department Baseball General NC State Administration NCS Basketball NCS Football Non-Revenue Rankings & Lists Stat of the Day

63 Responses to The State of State Part Four – AD Battle Royale

  1. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 06/18/2008 at 11:24 AM #

    This just goes to show that NC State sports seem to always suck regardless of who is in charge.

  2. baxman 06/18/2008 at 11:25 AM #

    I’m sure there will be a Director’s Cup update on here once the final results are out in a few weeks. Right now, the latest results include everything but baseball and track & field. We are currently at #57 with 301.5 points. We’ll get 64 points from baseball and zero from T&F, so our final points total should be 365.5. This will be the lowest point total for our athletic department since 2000-01. As for our final placement, I’m currently predicting around 55th, which would also be our lowest total since 2000-01. Hmmm…I thought all the $$ spent on facilities upgrades were supposed to have a direct impact on results?? 🙁

  3. choppack1 06/18/2008 at 11:29 AM #

    ed89 – I did some analysis excluding the 3 new teams. However, it should be noted that these 3 teams should be in the lower third since they have only been suckling on the ACC teet for a limited time.

  4. Wolf Dog 06/18/2008 at 11:29 AM #

    Wonder how Casey would stack up with the group? He left things in good shape and appears Valvano left things in good shape. I would say things started to go down hill under Todd Turner.

  5. StateFans 06/18/2008 at 12:01 PM #

    ^ If you speak to anyone from the new regime (aka – those that take no responsibility for their performance) then Casey is the reason that we are bad today because he evidently ignored the need for new ‘fuh-cilities’

  6. WolftownVA81 06/18/2008 at 12:02 PM #

    Good analysis. This confirms my decision to let my WP membership laps. I’ve been procrastinating since March and now just need to write the WPC and let them know why I’m not sending in my dues.

  7. ThomYorkepack 06/18/2008 at 12:13 PM #

    What a great, explicative piece of work. Kudos to SFN!

    The real questions that are begged to be asked here based on the reality of the numbers are:

    (1) Why hasn’t Fowler been held to account for the lack of achievement during his tenure? Is it ignorance or apathy on the part of NC State administrators and other PTB?

    (2) Is there any reason to believe that Fowler will EVER be held to account for the results shown by HIS athletic programs?

  8. packpigskinfan23 06/18/2008 at 1:28 PM #

    Thom- GREAT NAME!

    maybe we are all just paranoid androids.
    =)

  9. packpigskinfan23 06/18/2008 at 1:36 PM #

    WV- great work!

    if only everyone were as smart as us(mainly everyone else but me) on this board!

  10. baxman 06/18/2008 at 1:55 PM #

    Good article in USA Today about the resurgence of the SMU program under June Jones. I thought this comment from their AD, Steve Orsini, was on the money:

    “From the top down, we are committed to doing things the right way, to graduating kids and developing leaders. But we also want them to reap the fruits of their labors, and that means winning in athletics.”

    The impression I get from StatusQuoblinger on down to Lee and his minions is that just giving a kid the opportunity to play a sport is reward enough. No sense worrying about wins and losses – we’re all here to have fun a la intramurals.

  11. Ed89 06/18/2008 at 3:58 PM #

    SFN: Winning percentage is not impacted by expansion. Percentage of titles won is not analyzed in this analysis.

    While that is true purely by the numbers, we now play (in football for example) Miami, BC, Va Tech, and FSU, when 20 years ago we played Duke every year and our OOC opponents were generally weaker than Miami, et.al. So, overall, I’d say our schedule is tougher although we did get some good OOC opponents back in the late 70’s. I don’t really remember many (Top 25 OOC’s) during the 80’s.

  12. pakfanistan 06/18/2008 at 4:02 PM #

    Yeah, but now in basketball we now play Miami, BC, Va Tech and FSU. Where’s our boost from that?

  13. tvp1 06/18/2008 at 4:27 PM #

    You have to laugh at the idiocy on the pack pride thread.

  14. wufdog 06/18/2008 at 4:55 PM #

    Hey, I like the visual the graphs offer. By the way I was reading the Winston Salem Journal and came across this article on Gavin Grant’s tryout with the Charlotte Tarheels. I thought Gavin took the high road in the interview. I have listed the website below.
    http://www2.journalnow.com/content/2008/jun/18/grant-former-star-at-nc-state-gets-tryout-with-bob/

  15. blpack 06/18/2008 at 8:41 PM #

    Great job, WV. LF has had more time in office than his recent predecessors and has less to show for it.

  16. turfpack 06/18/2008 at 8:46 PM #

    Sorry guys been gone a while(Son graduation H.S.-Crazy month)
    Great info WV.
    YES—-LEE FOULUP IS WORTHLESS!
    Lee is A.D.= ALways DUH!?!?

  17. BoKnowsNCS71 06/18/2008 at 8:49 PM #

    “Good article in USA Today about the resurgence of the SMU program under June Jones.”

    I know June Jones will work his magic at SMU like he did at Hawaii but a resurgence at SMU? Hasn’t he just been there about 6 months? That’s really giving the man’s past cred a lot of future cred.

    And I hate to say it but wasn’t SMU the only team in recent history to get the NCAA death penalty for cheating and other bad stuff? If they have learned a lesson there — it’s more likely the lesson in how not to get caught again.

    June will take a lot of chances and players that other colleges will not. Colt Brennan the near-Heisman winner QB at Hawaii last year had a bad past but June and Hawaii U was willing to give the kid a chance to rehabilitate himself and that worked out.

    Problem is that a coach like him could never succeed at State because the media, the alumni and God knows who else would never let us give a kid a chance of rehabilitating himself after screwing up royally.

    The only good thing is that with the N&O moving its sports desk to Charlotte — most of the Charlotte guys are not going to give a damn about picking fights with State over its sister schools. No more non-story expose’s on the motel on Western boulevard. Thank God for the little things.

  18. redfred2 06/18/2008 at 8:51 PM #

    Not making excuses for Lee Fowler, but NC State as it is now, and the people who set the standards up there, can take the most motivated and idealistic person, and suck the life right out of their bodies. They will pay you well while they’re doing it though. Fowler is to blame for being a puppet, and not being his own man, but there are others above him who pull all the strings.

    I can’t say enough about how they’ve created the illusion of “We should never expect anything”, and ruined entire generations of Wolfpack/potential fans along the way. The younger generation of Wolfpack fans, if you can find any that will admit to it, have the most defeatists of attitudes anyone could ever imagine. Twenty years of raking in the money while cotinually dummying down expectations, has been a very effective, and successful, strategy in Raleigh.

  19. turfpack 06/18/2008 at 9:05 PM #

    Redfred2- you are more right than you even know.
    I wish we could clean house,from top to bottom.
    I- at least hope hope for football-please TOB make it so.

  20. redfred2 06/18/2008 at 9:06 PM #

    Alums and fans reward for nothing, and continue sending in their donations. Oblinger rewards Fowler, for keeping things just as they are, and keeping it going. It keeps going on, and on.

    I’m not very smart, but I think it could be a circular thing.

  21. redfred2 06/18/2008 at 9:14 PM #

    turfpack,

    Is TOB above it all, he’s older, fairly successful, and possibly less driven. Or can’t he also get suckered into that cushy circle as well?

  22. Rick 06/19/2008 at 7:22 AM #

    “While that is true purely by the numbers, we now play (in football for example) Miami, BC, Va Tech, and FSU, when 20 years ago we played Duke every year and our OOC opponents were generally weaker than Miami, ”

    Conversely they should make it easier in basketball and yet…

    TO be honest, I have all but given up on our athletic department. I am to the point I do not expect anything and if something happens, hurray.
    I am not going to dump money or emotions into an organization that refuses to try.

  23. Ed89 06/19/2008 at 7:51 AM #

    Off subject but somewhat related….

    Report: NC State, Avent Reach New Deal

    Looks like Auburn wanted to talk with him about their opening….I’m glad he is staying, and I hope Holiday stays with him!

  24. mafpack 06/19/2008 at 9:06 AM #

    Rofl, I just finished reading the PP thread – I haven’t laughed that hard in weeks.

    I did want to point out how awful Robinson must have been as an AD because according to “modlin” on the PP boards, our ACC football win percentage actually dropped from around .38 to BELOW .30 and then back up to .38 BETWEEN the 1996 and 1997 season. That’s right, we were so bad that we only won .38 of our games in 1996 then managed to lose a bunch more in the off season, before bringing it back up to .38 during the 1997 regular season.

    Whew, I’m glad they got whatever that was figured out between seasons because that could have been a real nightmare for the team…

    That poster is a hack of a statistician and should leave the math and such to the big boys who actually know what “statistically relevant” and “proper use of regression lines with limited quantity data values and the disclosure of R^2” mean. Hell, a simple line graph would have done a better job displaying his data and even proving his point, even if he is unable to comprehend such a simple solution.

    In other news, I was, at one point, one of the few SFN posters calling for less info about Lee, but to the honest, in the past few months and after seeing that kind of absolutely mindless response on the PP boards, I have now reversed my position – keep up the good work SFN!

  25. StateFans 06/19/2008 at 9:10 AM #

    ^ Take a look at the last 50 posts on SFN and do the math on how many posts have actually been about Lee Fowler.

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