NC State 73, Virginia Tech 63 – Wolfpack Takes Key Step Back into Top 40

Sidney Lowe continued his mastery of “Basketball Grobe” tonight as the NC State Wolfpack won for the third time in the last four games. The Wolfpack is now 15-7 with an ACC record that now stands at .500 at 4-4.

NC State never trailed in route to our second consecutive win over a team ahead of us in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings. The Wolfpack hit 5-of-6 free throws in the final minute to seal the ten point win JJ Hickson delivering as needed, finishing 13-of-17 from the free-throw line. The Associated Press has their story about tonight’s game posted. ACCNow has these comments.

The win propels NC State back into a solid RPI of #40 while playing against the 31st toughest schedule in America. NC State has now defeated NINE teams currently rated in the RPI’s Top 100 as we wait and hope for Rider (currently #106) to battle back under the century ranking on their way to (hopefully winning a) conference championship.

Historically, a Top 40 RPI is particularly important for major-conference teams. In fact, over the last seven years only ten teams with RPIs of 40 or better have failed to make the NCAA Tournament — 280 teams have finished in the Top 40; 270 teams of those teams have made the NCAA Tournament.

Of those 10 misses, only three teams were from top power conferences and NONE were from the Atlantic Coast Conference (which is currently rated as the toughest conference in the country). Those teams that failed to make the Tournament were the following:

* In 2001 – #40 Mississippi State was 16-12 and 5-5 in their last 10 games

* In 2004 – #38 LSU was 18-10 and only 4-6 in their last 10 games

* In 2006 – #40 Cincinnati was 18-12 and 5-5 in their last 10 games (and were in national turmoil with the Huggins stuff)

Six teams that missed the dance with RPIs of 40 or better were: Hofstra, Missouri State (twice), Bradley and Air Force and Creighton. Hardly big names that would correlate to an ACC program.

EVERY team from a major conference who has achieved an RPI of better than #38 has been extended an NCAA Tournament bid. It may not be causation, but there certainly is some high correlation that makes it work watching.

State now owns 6th place in the conference standings and finally has an extra day off before traveling to Maryland for a huge game on Saturday night. The Terps have been playing excellent basketball on their way to an 8-2 record in their last ten games since December 28th. IMHO, a quick look at the rest of Maryland’s schedule can easily lead one ot believe that the Terps are on their way to securing an NCAA Tournament berth despite their exceptionally poor early-season performance. In light of the Wolfpack’s exceptionally tough remaining schedule, State could really benefit from picking up a win in at least one of our next two games that are both on the road – Saturday at Maryland and Thursday at Boston College.

Coach Lowe is now an impressive 4-0 against Seth Greenberg. Does one really wonder why Greenberg was such a vocal supporter of former NC State Head Coach, Herb Sendek, and took the liberty to make negative comments about NC State fans after Sendek left Raleigh in April of 2006?

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07-08 Basketball

100 Responses to NC State 73, Virginia Tech 63 – Wolfpack Takes Key Step Back into Top 40

  1. PackGirl 02/05/2008 at 10:29 PM #

    Is it my imagination or is Javi playing as well as, if not better than Degand before he went out with the knee injury?

  2. Packster 02/05/2008 at 10:30 PM #

    This team is not just starting to achieve they may in fact be starting to overacheive. Were we perfect tonight? Of course not. But every game we seem to be getting better. I think pretty much everyone here had written off Javi (probably including me) in December as not even being capable of playing Div I. He seems only to excel in every game of late. Horner came alive today as well. This team is getting over the hump and I think they will be able to shake things up a little before the season is over. I have to give the credit to L because it is due. He has taken a team that had some serious chemical flaws to it and made a competitive middle of the ACC or better team out of them. Quite an accomplishment.

  3. the_phisherman 02/05/2008 at 10:31 PM #

    I think Javi is playing better than Degand. He has really stepped into the starting PG role and looks like he is starting to realize that this is the same game he played in HS.

  4. Dogbreath 02/05/2008 at 10:31 PM #

    I thought Dennis Van Der Sloop played well tonight.

  5. CStanley 02/05/2008 at 10:47 PM #

    “When is the last time we won at Maryland?”

    2005…we won by 16.

  6. Lockes_Dad 02/05/2008 at 10:58 PM #

    Tonight’s starting lineup is THE lineup. Having Costner on the bench was the perfect opportunity to see that the McCauley-Hickson combo downlow is very important. They should be in the game together as much as they can possibly stand…and when Costner is healthy, he should be used as a sub only when Ben or JJ need a breather. If he starts making more of his minutes, then maybe he’ll get more of them.

    I’m still confused why Johnson gets so much PT. Javi seems to be in good shape…he should only be taken out on request.

    I’d like to see a statistical analysis of our possessions when JJ touches the ball and when he doesn’t. I noticed tonight that he often creates high percentage shots simply by touching the ball (for himself and teammates).

  7. the_phisherman 02/05/2008 at 11:03 PM #

    I also wonder what the lineup was when VT made that run. If I remember correctly, Johnson and Horner were both in.

  8. Trip 02/05/2008 at 11:06 PM #

    Javi got 29 minutes, MJ got 11, that sounds about right because you can’t run Javi ragged, 35+ minutes every game will wear you out eventually. Plus, MJ needs minutes just to get better himself.

    Overall, excellent game… play like this every game or better and we’ll get in the NCAA.

  9. JeremyH 02/05/2008 at 11:10 PM #

    Lockes_Dad: I think the minute breakdown was like 30/10 Javi/Johson, which I think it fine. Just enough to spell him a breather.

  10. Trip 02/05/2008 at 11:10 PM #

    Javi is a thief.

    10 Javier Gonzalez 4.0% Rank: #79 in all of D1.

  11. choppack1 02/05/2008 at 11:16 PM #

    Great start tonight. While we turned it over way too much, we mitigated that by getting back on D and doing a stellar job on the boards.

    Javi played super in the first half. In the second half, he struggled some. Like RAWFS said, we make some passes that smart b’ball players just shouldn’t make – these are most likely to come from Fells, Grant, Horner, and yes, even McCauley. It’s like we’re a WNBA team.

    In the first half we played the best D we played all year. In the second, I thought we were totally gassed. I’m absolutely thrilled to see us get a W tonight. Our magic # is 5 (IMHO) – we may get in w/ an 8-8 record and a first round loss if we have a big win and don’t fall too far in the RPI w/ the first round loss.

    I like our chances at UMd. Once again, it will simply come down to protecting the b’ball and keeping UMd off the offensive boards. We won tonight by a good margin because we controled the board and did a good job getting back on D. UMd will try to turn us over. If we force them to play halfcourt, rebound and protect the ball we may shock them too. (We’ve beaten 2 teams in a row coming into town on a roll. ) Let’s make it a third!

  12. Anthony Grundy 02/05/2008 at 11:17 PM #

    Only Ben McC has basketball IQ. We need a gaurd with a strong basketball IQ.

    On a side note, Fells has obviously put in a lot of work on his jump shot.

  13. ADVENTEROO 02/05/2008 at 11:18 PM #

    GREAT WIN…CONGRATS…

    NOW…PLEASE START A MOVEMENT…

    We have LTR’s in the Champion’s Club. Tonight there was an OBNOXIOUS, FOUL MOUTHED VT Fan in the middle of our section. FOLKS…if you want to get rid of your tickets on CraigsList or Ebay….PLEASE choose your buyers carefully…

    I ALMOST went up there and “calmed” down the VT Mongoloid…his language was NOT what I wanted my 5 year old grandson to hear…

    Thanks,

  14. Sweet jumper 02/05/2008 at 11:20 PM #

    If Seth loves Voldemort so much, he should schedule ASU about now when they are in their yearly second half of the season swoon with which we are all too familiar.
    We need to build on the momentum of these two wins a bring back two road victories.
    Javi is fearless and continues to improve. He may not be top 50 but he works his ass off and gives maximum effort.
    Sid is starting to push the right buttons. I am hoping for another late season surge.

  15. melikesncsu 02/05/2008 at 11:23 PM #

    Can anyone give a quick reminder on what Greenberg’s comment about NCSU fans was after Herby left?

  16. JeremyH 02/05/2008 at 11:23 PM #

    Grundy: I found that lifting weights before a shootaround allowed me to knock in nba range three-pointers just as easily as one’s right at the arc, once the rhythm was established, of course. (So it’s not as hard as it looks : }) Ben has a nice midrange game too now. I just hope a lot of the confidence, flow, and defensive energy we saw tonight was not mainly due to home crowd lift. If so we may team a different team this weekend.

  17. Primewolf 02/05/2008 at 11:26 PM #

    RAWFS, that is the exact discussion I had with folks around me at the game. We have some players that just don’t get it, are constantly doing things that just makes you question their BB IQ.

    That and total lack of leadership on the floor, although Javi is improving.

    My other pet peeve is that we have become a team always looking for the foul call when we are on offense. GG is among the worst. I am really tired of watching our players mope back on D after another no call, or worst yet,don’t get back in time to defend the guy that blocked their shot or took the ball away from them.

  18. CaptainCraptacular 02/05/2008 at 11:30 PM #

    SFN according to the dance card, Clemson had an RPI of 40 and FSU had an RPI of 39 last year and both missed. In 2006 Maryland missed with an RPI of 37. They say they use college RPI – not sure how official that is or how it compares with pomeroy’s RPI, but the recent history of those numbers suggest you can’t be too certain anymore at 40, even in the ACC. Dance Card lists the college RPI rank in addition to the dance card rank at the end of the regular season.

  19. wufpup76 02/05/2008 at 11:32 PM #

    great win tonight!

    thanks to the author for pointing out a very key stat that the NCAA Selection Committee uses in “last 10” games … i meant to bring up the importance of a team’s W-L record in their last 10 prior to the wake forest game but i didn’t … 2-0 w/ 8 to go … way to go guys!

    not the most important thing, but a really good crowd on a tuesday night … the team gave everyone something to cheer about right off the bat and the crowd was in it pretty much throughout

    THE most important thing for the night was the defensive AND rebounding performances in the first half tonight … really, really impressive … vt is a good rebounding team and most posessions were of the one-and-done variety for vt in the first half tonight … IIRC, we did outrebound them for the game even if javi was the leading rebounder 🙂

    speaking of javi – WAY TO GO! the little guy is a true scrapper and is light years ahead of where he was not even 10 games ago … i’m so proud of him! (like that matters, but anyway) … he has really come a long way and has really proven me wrong (thankfully!) about his abilities at this level … well done young man (now just keep improving and knock down those open shots!)

    second half was entirely too sloppy … UNFORCED errors early in the half on some just awful passes … also, the pack – the guards in particular – still allow WAY too much dribble penetration at times … free throw shooting was impressive however, hickson in particular … i also thought both gavin and courtney each did a good job all night in not letting washington or vassallo really go off on us … good job 🙂

    all-in-all, an impressive tough win against a solid team that puts us right in the hunt for a bid …

    go wolfpack!

  20. MatSci94 02/05/2008 at 11:39 PM #

    I know there are still holes to fix, but this is the best combination of first and second halves we have had in a while. Regardless of where we end up, I am extremely pleased with the progress we have made since early this year.

  21. Garrett 02/06/2008 at 12:16 AM #

    Really solid win tonight for the Pack. Two straight wins over teams playing pretty well shows our progress as a team.

    Our two freshmen were the difference tonight. Javi continues to improve every game and J.J. couldn’t be stopped (apart from the fouls). His free throw shooting looked much better and he was just too strong for anyone vatech could throw at him.

    The next two games are critical, and I believe winning one of the two will put us on fairly solid ground and on the way to getting a bid to the dance. The maryland game looks much tougher than BC, but if we go in there with the mindset we’ve had recently, and bring it for all 40 minutes, we could steal one.

    Overall, I’m beginning to love this team as I watch it grow together and show more consistent intensity. Lets go (at least) 5-3 the rest of the way out and hope this team becomes extremely dangerous come March!

  22. Tau837 02/06/2008 at 1:08 AM #

    Posted this several days ago:

    I’m going with the theory that 20 wins gets us in. Given that we will play on Thursday at the ACC tournament, I think it is possible to count on one win there… more would simply be icing on the cake.

    That means we need 19 regular season wins, which in turn means an 8-8 regular season ACC record. We are 13-6 with 11 games to go… so we need to go 6-5 against this schedule:

    at Duke
    Wake
    VT
    at UMD
    at BC
    Clemson
    UNC
    at UVA
    FSU
    Duke
    at Wake

    Assume we beat Wake twice and VT at home… and we win at BC… and beat FSU again… and we win at UVA… I am not naive enough to think that we can’t lose any or all of those games, but they appear to be the most winnable.

    One problem with that scenario is that none of those wins will be quality wins from an NCAA resume standpoint (i.e., none of those teams (Wake, VT, BC, UVA, FSU) are likely to be NCAA tournament teams). And then we’ll probably get win 20 (in my scenario) against one of those same teams in the first round of the ACC tournament. Regardless, our SOS and RPI should be good enough in this scenario.

    Also, another issue is that in my scenario, barring a deep run in the ACC tournament, we’ll likely be 5-5 or possibly 6-4 over our last 10 games. Not terrible, but not something that will add to our resume.

    Should we lose any of those and/or to improve on 19 regular season wins, we need to win one or more of the 5 other games against Duke (home and away), UNC (home), Clemson (home), and Maryland (away). I think we could beat any of them on a given day, but the Maryland and Clemson games certainly seem more winnable.

    This is all very doable IMO. Not easy, but this team is good enough to do it. Now imagine if the PG play continues to improve and Brandon snaps back to last year’s form… the sky is the limit…

    3 games into my scenario, it’s looking good.

  23. BJD95 02/06/2008 at 1:17 AM #

    Hello, all. I had to DVR the game tonight, and finished up around 11. Then watching election returns.

    It was a gut-wrenching second half, but I think you can chalk up the second half defensive swoon to fatigue (at least that’s what I’m hoping). Ballhandling is always going to be a problem (I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again – Fells is maybe the worst passing guard I’ve ever seen start in the ACC), but if we play hard-nosed defense and rebound (like we did tonight, especially the first half), we can make up for that. In other words, it really is mostly about effort.

    Tracy Smith held his ground on defense, ran the floor, and rebounded pretty well. Thus, we didn’t really miss Costner, aside from having a few less bricked 3s.

    Very important note – there was a Dennis Horner sighting tonight. He was confident with his shot and smooth at the FT line. Assuming he keeps it up, we have 2 of the missing 3 (McCauley, Horner) and are just waiting for Costner to come back to us in recognizable form.

  24. JeremyH 02/06/2008 at 1:21 AM #

    Brandon is equivalent to a chubby Andrew Brackman, good thing he doesn’t have a fastball. I think he may be able to contribute in spots, but we can’t count on it. Some have commented on his lift, and he’s obviously slower–both can be contributed to the added weight that was admittedly an effect of the summer injury. I say good thing he’s only a sophomore.

  25. JeremyH 02/06/2008 at 1:26 AM #

    btw, I think that he look a lot better than he did in the beginning of the season, and that part of what is plaguing him now is finding a rhythm and getting his confidence back. Course he has to want it and work very hard to get back there.

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