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If you were to click on the “Archives” tab just above the headline to this entry then you would see a host of “tags” and “categories” that can more easily direct you to to past entries here at SFN.
One of the categories that you can browse is titled “On the Record” (Click here to browse) that we sometimes shorten to “OTR”. OTRs are just one place where we go “On the Record” with a prediction &/or expectation and expressly ask you to also log your take on the topic.
NC State’s regular season is just under 50% complete – 14 out of conference games are behind us and 16 conference game remain. A better time therefore could not exist to go ‘On the Record’ and share predictions for NC State’s 2007-2008 ACC Basketball record.
‘At the turn’ the Wolfpack sits 11-3 with an RPI of #59 after playing the 158th toughest schedule in America.
(Please note: we have not played the 158th toughest out of conference schedule in America as many teams have already started conference play. Addtitionall, State’s SOS would have been somewhere in the 70s if it weren’t for our last two games against PC and NCCU. While still producing an OOC SOS SIGNIFICANTLY more acceptable than our previous regime, Coach Lowe’s staff could do themselves a favor by just slightly improving a couple of our cupcakes as the difference between the actual strength of #320 and number #200 is much less significant than the actual impact on our rankings of playing #320 and #200.)
Before the season began I projected that an 11-3 OOC record was the most likely scenario for the Wolfpack heading into ACC play. Of course, had you told me that the Pack would have beaten Villanova, Davidson, Seton Hall and Cincinnati while telling me nothing else I would have been ecstatic and presumed we would be 13-1 at this time. UNO and ECU threw a wrench in those plans.
The impact of the UNO and ECU losses on our season are not to be dismissed yet. As you will see in a moment, due to the strength of our ACC schedule, if the Wolfpack had actually achieved that 13-1 OOC record then we could have skated to an NCAA Tournament berth with a 7-9 ACC record and a 20-10 overall record with little problem.
Heading into ACC play I suggest that you start your analysis by clicking here to give yourself a more clear idea of just how difficult the Wolfpack’s conference slate is this season.
The rest of the ACC’s RPI is currently listed as follows:
(2) UNC-CH
(17) Duke
(36) Florida State
(46) Clemson
(48) Miami
(57) Wake Forest
(73) Virginia
(91) Georgia Tech
(102) Virginia Tech
(110) Boston College
(137) Maryland
In summary, NC State plays:
* NINE games against ACC opponents currently ranked in the RPI’s Top 50.* ELEVEN games against the ACC’s six highest rated teams in the RPI.* only ONE game against the worst rated team in the league, and that is on the road...and here is the killer —
* only FOUR games of a mathematically possible EIGHT match-ups against the lowest rated four teams in the league.
Adjusting for the fact that NC State cannot play ourselves, this means that we effectively play every team in the top 45% of the league for the MAXIMUM amount of games possible while playing every team in the bottom 36% of the league for the MINIMUM amount of games possible.
I’ve heard/seen a lot of people make uneducated projections about the minimum standards needed to get NC State into the NCAA Tournament this season. But, as usually goes with the internet, you get a lot of their opinion without a lot of fact or rational thought behind that fact.
Allow me to propose that if NC State were to achieve an 8-8 ACC record against this difficult of a conference schedule (while the ACC is ranked as one of the best leagues in America this season) that there is no way in hell that a 19-11 Wolfpack squad who would easily be ranked in the RPI’s Top 35-40 would fail to make the NCAA Tournament (unless we lost by 25+ in a Thursday game in the ACC Tournament and was on a painful losing streak at the end of the year).
With all of that said, accounting for the fact the NC State’s already weak and inexperienced backcourt has been impacted by the season-ending injury to our starting point guard in tandem with injuries to our two best shooters (Courtney Fells and Dennis Horner)…I am predicting a most-likely scenario of a 6-10 record for this year’s Wolfpack and an NIT bid with a stretch possibility of an 8-8 record and an NCAA Tournament bid. If the Wolfpack’s record were to fall outside of either side of this 6 to 8 win range then my disappointment or happiness would be greatly enhanced.
To note, the injuries – not just to Degand but the potential residual/lingering impact to Horner and Fells – definitely impacted my prediction. Had Degand remained healthy I would logged an 8-8 expectation which would have presented a strong three game (60%) improvement from last season.
We’d love to see what you think in our comments section…but, we are going to ask you to limit your comments to focusing very much on the topic as in the future we are not going to want to click on this entry and ready random conversations. (So, don’t be surprised if some of your off-topic comments disappear).
