ESPN.com’s expanded ACC standings.
I probably should have added a question mark to the title, because it’s a difficult task. One thing is abundantly clear – Duke and UNC are significantly better than everyone else. I expect them both to be no worse than #2 seeds in the NCAAT. Damn it.
After that, it’s less clear. My gut has always said that Clemson is the third “good” team, but we have a statistically significant sample to analyze now. The Tigers are 0-2 in conference on the road, and only 3-3 overall (despite having played 4 home games). Perhaps more alarming is that Clemson needed overtime to hold off Wake and Florida State at home. Boston College is 3-2, but it’s hard to take them seriously after a home loss to Virginia Tech. The Eagles have also yet to face UNC, Duke, or Clemson.
Several teams were projected as possible/likely doormats this season, most notably Miami, Wake, and Virginia Tech. All 3 have exceeded expectations so far, especially the Hokies – who already have two road wins in the conference. Thus, I think one can make a fair argument that very little separates teams 3-12 in the ACC.
How does this affect the post-season chase? Well, it depends on how everything shakes out. Even assuming UNC and Duke max out at 15-1 and 14-2, respectively (which is unlikely, but possible), that leaves a total of 67 wins for the other 10 teams to divvy up, for a median figure of 6.7. Certainly, there will eventually be some separation, with at least a few teams reaching 8 or 9 ACC wins.
But what if those few happen to be teams like Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Georgia Tech – all of whom had very poor OOC results? Those teams might need at least 9 conference wins to be comfortable on Selection Sunday. In a parity-filled ACCT, you could also have 5-11 or 6-10 teams in the semifinals, rather than legitimate bubble teams. In such a jumbled scenario, the most balanced (and I would say best) conference in the nation could end up with only 3 or 4 NCAAT bids, and a whole slew of high NIT seeds.
How does this affect the Pack? In my view, it still looks like 5-11 or 6-10. State’s remaining schedule includes 3 games that we would lose 99 times out of 100 – vs. UNC, vs. Duke, at Duke. The matchups are just awful for the Pack. That leaves 8 other “toss up” games, of which we would likely win no more than half. If you believe (as I do) that luck tends to even out over time, we are likely due for some bad bounces of the ball after fortunate endings against Miami and FSU. That makes 6-10 look more like a ceiling than a projection. Of course, I am also a raging pessimist, so take what I say at face value.
