Wake Forest Preview

I almost didn’t do a WF preview this week. The keys to the game should be obvious to anyone that has watched any ACC football at all over the last several years. But before we get to those, let’s take a little closer look at a few areas that caught my attention.

WF Rushing Attack

The recruitment of Josh Adams several years ago garnered a lot of attention on State sites since he played his high school ball in Cary. Most people expected that he would have a nice career at WF. However, I don’t think that many people expected him to be WF’s leading rusher (and 4th in the ACC) as a RS-FR. 152 carries for 692 net yds (4.6 yds per carry) is pretty darn good production.

Micah Andrews missed most of last year after being hurt in the third game of the season. This year, his carries have dropped dramatically (346 yds on 98 carries). Does anyone know the story on Micah?

After losing Micah last year, WF’s rushing duties were split rather evenly among three different RB’s….Kenny Moore, Kevin Harris, and De’Angelo Bryant. This trio is back again this year, but only have 70 carries combined.

– Sidenote: Along with losing Micah in the third game last year, WF also lost their starting QB (Ben Mauk) after he was hurt in the first game of last season…Just a little something to remember when people try to belittle WF’s ACC title last year.

WF Passing Attack

Last year, WF threw on about 35% of their offensive plays. WF’s passing attack now accounts for about 41% of their offensive plays. Some of that difference is obviously due to falling behind (and by large margins) in several games this year. But it seems to me that WF is passing in situations this year when they would have run in the past. Has anyone else noticed this?

The passing attack has not been as efficient as it was last year….falling from 35th nationally last year to 65th this year. I don’t know exactly how passing efficiency is calculated, but I suspect a lot of the difference is due to the difference in TD/INT ratio. 9/5 last year and 7/11 so far this year.

While nothing in the last two paragraphs is anything for WF fans to cheer about, those numbers don’t tell the entire story. For the year, Skinner has 166 completions on 228 attempts…or 73% completion percentage. That ain’t chopped liver, folks.

WF Defense and Special Teams

WF appears to have a good, but not great, defense. Nationally they rank in the 30’s and 40’s for most defensive categories. Based solely on statistics, their pass defense is the weakest part of the defense with a national ranking of 63rd.

At one time, WF led the nation (and still might) in non-offensive TD’s. This is a credit to both their defense and their special teams. WF’s punt return yardage ranks 12th nationally…just something else to consider along with State’s occasional punting woes.

I am sure that State fans have not forgotten WF’s kicker who made three, 50 yd FG’s against the Pack last year. I suspect he would like a chance to atone for missing the winning FG against UVA this year.

Return of the Self-Defeating Offense

In the second half of the UNC game, State’s offense clearly had their worst half since the FSU game. This awkward truth is being ignored by the media and most State fans in the aftermath of beating UNC. Lest you think that I am exaggerating, here is the summary of State’s offensive drives from the second half.

3rd Quarter
Start	Time	Drive	# of	Yards	Result
Time	Poss	Began	Plays	Gained
14:55	2:10	NCSt 30	5	21	Punt
9:39	1:24	NCSt 14	3	6	Punt
8:00	1:00	NCSt 26	3	-8	Punt
5:29	0:30	NCSt 20	3	4	Punt
4th Quarter
Start	Time	Drive	# of	Yards	Result
Time	Poss	Began	Plays	Gained
14:50	4:00	NCSt 5	12	72	Int
9:35	1:45	NCSt 31	3	-10	Punt
6:15	4:34	UNC 25	8	25	TD

State’s Rushing Defense

Which game better describes State’s rushing defense…..300+ yds against Miami or 12 yards against UNC? The answer to this question will go a long way in determining who wins on Saturday.

There are three teams that rely heavily on the run in the second half of State’s schedule this year…Miami, WF, and Maryland. I think that I will wait a little while longer before deciding that State’s poor rushing defense from the first half of the season has been fixed.

How to Lose a Game to WF

State’s last two trips to Winston-Salem ended in losses, but in dramatically different fashion. If State loses on Saturday, then I expect that the game will closely match one of the last two trips to WF:

– 2003

PR’s senior year was quickly derailed in Winston Salem when State’s defense couldn’t stop the run….which opened up the entire WF playbook. 200+ yds rushing, 175 yds passing, and 38 points led to a decisive WF win.

– 2005

State’s QBs combined for 4 TD passes…..two for State and two for WF. Even a top-10 defense isn’t enough when your QB helps the opponent’s defense outscore the opponent’s offense.

Keys to the Game

– Contain WF’s rushing game

Jim Grobe>>>>>>Randy Shannon
State can not give up 300 yds rushing to WF and expect to win.

– Give Daniel Evans time in the pocket.

UVA and Miami combined for a total of four sacks against State. The protection was not nearly as good against UNC where the OL gave up four sacks in one game. The pressure disrupted State’s offense and led to two pick-6’s for UNC.

– Make Good Decisions Under Fire

A QB can not expect to play for an entire game and keep his uniform clean…pressure is going to come eventually. What you do when pressure comes goes a long way in defining a QB; and determining whether your team will win or lose.

ADDENDUM

For those that love raw numbers, here is WF’s national ranking in various statistical categories for the last two years. The data comes from the NCAA and from ESPN.

	2006		2007
	Rank	Actual	Rank	Actual
Rushing Offense	44	149.9	72	143.2
Passing Offense	104	157.1	89	193.3
Total Offense	96	307.0	96	336.5
Scoring Offense	78	21.6	T-63	26.9
Passing Efficiency	35	138.3	65	125.9
3rd Down Conversons	85	35.1	51	41.2
Sacks Allowed	54	1.9	56	1.9
Rushing Defense	21	105.8	30	123.4
Pass Defense	82	216.7	63	228.6
Total Defense	45	322.5	40	352
Scoring Defense	12	15.4	46	24.4
Sacks	46	2.3	41	2.4
Tackles For Loss	63	5.5	T-49	6.5
Net Punting	9	38.2	77	34.07
Punt Returns	33	11.1	27	11.88
Kickoff Returns	62	20.0	15	24.09
Turnover Margin	6	0.9	T-25	0.6
Penalties	T-76	44.2	T-98	48.7
(#1 = Most Penalties)