Quick Look at Miami

'07 Football43

Here’s a quick list of things that I will be watching for in the Miami game. This doesn’t qualify as a full-blown preview, but should help flesh out the numbers presented earlier. Feel free to add any observations you have about Miami in the comments section.

WHICH QUARTERBACK?

Kyle Wright twisted his ankle in the FSU game as is listed as day to day (Thanks to RAWFS for this link.) If he can’t go, then Kirby Freeman will start.

One of the questions that a FL writer had for TOB this week was how much harder is it to prepare for a team not knowing who the QB was going to be. He handled the question pretty well (as per usual) by saying that it didn’t really matter that much since offenses tend to do the same things regardless of who the QB is.

What TOB left unsaid was that Kyle Wright doesn’t really give DC’s nightmares and Freeman even less so. So what does Miami usually do on offense?

RUN FIRST

Even in their losses, Miami is a run-first team and this surprised me at first. But given Miami’s issues at QB it probably shouldn’t have. They currently rank third in the ACC and 59th in the nation in rushing.

– You have to wonder about why the Miami coaches kept running even though they were getting crushed by Oklahoma. Of course since they only had 87 yards passing, it wouldn’t really have made any difference.

State’s rushing defense has looked much better over the last three weeks. TOB attributed the improvement to the secondary…though a healthy defensive line certainly doesn’t hurt. The FSU game was the first time this year that State held their opponent to less than 200 yds rushing.

Here is a quick summary of the opponent’s rushing over the last three games.

 

versus

Season

 

State

Average

 

(yards)

(yards)

FSU

124

125

ECU

72

138

UVA

94

134

Those numbers aren’t good enough to start jumping up and down about. But they do represent a dramatic improvement. The improvement will have to carry into the Miami game for State to have a chance to win.

DEFENSIVE PRESSURE

Miami is tied with UVA for 16th in the nation in sacks and is substantially better than UVA in tackles for loss (TFL). All four members of their defensive line rank in the top 100 in the nation for sacks. This appears to offer a more difficult challenge than UVA in that you can’t double-team everyone. Protecting Daniel Evans has to rank as one of the top keys of the game for State.

THINGS THAT DON’T ADD UP

How can a defense that ranks in the top-20 for sacks and TFL rank 46th in rushing defense? Looking at Miami’s last three games, this doesn’t appear to be some sort of statistical aberration.

 

National

versus

Season

 

Rank –

Miami

Average

 

Rushing

(yards)

(yards)

UNC

103

183

102

GT

13

264

219

FSU

92

158

125

So State has held their last three opponents at or below their season average, while Miami’s last three opponents improved their season rushing average by playing Miami. It is unfortunate that State will likely not be able to take full advantage of Miami’s rushing defense. However, any talk of Miami having a chance to run the table and make the ACC Championship Game appears mighty premature at this point.

THINGS THAT DON’T ADD UP – PART TWO

I have never bet on a college game, but Miami opening as a 13 point favorite seems out of line to me. This is the Miami team that LOST to UNC and only beat Duke by 10 points. Their offense simply isn’t good enough to spot anyone 13 points and be confident of covering. On the other hand, State’s offense has been bad enough at times this year that they could be expected to spot two TD’s to nearly any I-A team.

The bottom line is that both of these teams have been too erratic to risk any money on. I don’t know how to check, but it would be interesting to know how much action this game is getting in Vegas. My bet would be that this game sees very little play.

THINGS THAT DON’T ADD UP – PART THREE

Here is the team recruiting rankings (from Scout) for Miami over the last five years.

Year

Rank

2007

13

2006

14

2005

12

2004

3

2003

6

Given Miami’s current record and those from the recent past, does it seem like either coaching staff is getting enough out of their players?

PREDICTIONS

Who could possibly have any? Which team and unit are going to show up for either side? Both teams have played bad enough to lose this game and both have played well enough to win. Miami is the favorite and clearly so. However, it is unlikely that any outcome will really surprise me.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

'07 Football

43 Responses to Quick Look at Miami

  1. packbackr04 10/31/2007 at 12:14 PM #

    i think jones was a little peeved at the response Butchie gave him

  2. haze 10/31/2007 at 1:07 PM #

    ^ My feeling on Butch is that, yeah, he’d like the Arkansas job and would leave UNC for that job. However, the more premature press this gets, the more likely Butch would be to stay in CH.

  3. packbackr04 10/31/2007 at 2:57 PM #

    maybe right haze. maybe why SFN has yet to focus on it. they, and i, want him gone ASAP and with more people talking about it, he may be more apt to stay

  4. packbackr04 10/31/2007 at 2:59 PM #

    and while i have no direct knowledge, this is JUST SPECUALTION…. but with the rash of suspensions his team has this year. he may be realizing that UNC isnt going to let him roll with the same type of thugs he had at the U or could get and keep as a razorback

  5. primacyone 10/31/2007 at 4:18 PM #

    If Arkansas comes a calling BMFD would be gone like Matt Doherty – FAST.

  6. RabidWolf 10/31/2007 at 6:59 PM #

    “coincidence, or Swofford giving rim jobs to his UNC buddies”

    BWAHHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

    I think I would guess the latter of the two.

    I am also completely opposed to the ACC having a commish who is a graduate of ANY ACC school. Doing this would eliminate any question of preferential treatment at the league office level.

  7. Primewolf 10/31/2007 at 8:27 PM #

    Back to Miami, I believe Miami will cover the deep ball better than UVA. I suspect we will throw some screens and quick slants and a shovel or two.

    I would still run a play action on the first play and hit Bowens down the side line. That would fix any thinking that we are going to change our plans.

    I think we got a decent shot at it. However, if we turn it over more than them, it will be tough to win.

    Bowens will catch 150yds +. They will not stop him, he is a beast that will play on Sunday. 6’3″ 205 lbs of jumping catching machine. A 5’9″ back has little chance if DE lays it up.

  8. vtpackfan 10/31/2007 at 10:13 PM #

    Eugene will have to step it up. He’s probably in for a 25 carry, 3-5 catch’s, and an untold amount of chip blocks in pass protecting. If all goes well, he will be one sore cowboy sunday morning.

  9. choppack1 10/31/2007 at 10:17 PM #

    Miami will throw the deep ball – and they will try to establish the run.

    This should be a very interesting game. I really like the match up of our coaching staff vs. theirs. But they have tons of talent – and they will fight.

  10. bTHEredterror 11/01/2007 at 12:50 AM #

    I am afraid of the deep ball as well, its a week point at the edges of the zone, but with Freeman there will be a couple of INTs to balance things out. I don’t think they have to letdown for us to beat ’em. If we can stand up to the run early and get a lead, they can be had. They have piles of athletes, but they remind of Amato teams. Just when you think they are about to wear somebody out, they pop their own balloon. If our O-line continues their progression, we’ll get some run yards. Eugene will be a marked man, so Blackman should get some opportunities early. One of their starting CBs insulted Bowens in a Miami paper, saying he lucked into his big game at UVa and wasn’t that impressive. We’ll see. I expect our DL will give Freeman fits. though he’s mobile, he’s not the same type of running threat that Sewell represents.

  11. Ismael 11/01/2007 at 3:06 AM #

    I think it will come down to special teams…actually i’m just saying that because no one has said it yet, and if it does, i could be remembered as “prescient”.

    actually, they have a horrible punter, worse than ours and ours is actually getting better me thinks. We have Darrell Blackman who is one of the best in the ACC/Nation and i don’t think Miami is particularly good at coverage either punt or kickoff.

    Remember last year…D.Evans strung together two amazing games to beat BC and FSU…then he came up with 7 or so subpar to downright ugly performances. If he can get over my own made up mythical two game bar, i think we actually will win out the season. With DE its all about confidence and it makes everyone around him more confident. The next question is…do we see Harrison Beck anymore this year in a meaningful role?

  12. kool k 11/01/2007 at 8:43 AM #

    If Evans keeps it going, maybe Beck can switch to TE.
    Which position change worked out the best: Preston Poag to punter, Charles Davenport to WR or Marcus to TE?

  13. Mike 11/01/2007 at 3:33 PM #

    Poag did not switch to punter – was always a QB/P. Davenport I thought had a good shot at a longer career at WR at the next level because of his size and athleticism, but then I realized he could not catch a cold. Nice guy, but he had more drops than a good rain. Marcus to TE I love, since Marcus is a ball player who wants to hit. Normally though, QB to TE is rare. Note though Mike Tice did make a nice career in the NFL as a TE after playing QB at Maryland. Next career for Tice is a ticket scalper but that is whole different story. Dont look for Beck to move to TE any time soon.

  14. kool k 11/01/2007 at 5:39 PM #

    I see Beck going the 1-AA route before switching to another position.
    Marcus Stone is awesome at TE.
    Good call on Poag, Mike.
    Davenport’s NFL career lasted from 1992-1994 with the Steelers
    13 187 14.4 0

  15. bTHEredterror 11/01/2007 at 6:00 PM #

    I would say D)none of the above. Sean Locklear’s switch from DT to OG was the most successful and he’s a pro-bowl level player in the League right now.

  16. bTHEredterror 11/01/2007 at 6:17 PM #

    Sorry, I guess you meant only QBs?

    Stone was always a TE, he understood underneath routes as a QB but could never succeed in the deep and outside game. And when he scrambled he ran like a TE looking for guys to hit. When he was moved there it seemed like he could pull it off. I’m actually expecting a great deal of improvement from him the rest of this season. He’s been a tremendous leader all year, and I hope his selflessness is repaid with some success.

  17. kool k 11/01/2007 at 6:30 PM #

    Stone is one heck of a football player. I definately can see him playing TE at the next level. I hope he gets to work with an offensive genius like Brian Billick.

  18. wolfman 11/01/2007 at 7:20 PM #

    Stone is great as a TE, he knows how to lay the wood on defenders, isn’t afraid to take a hit to make a catch, and runs good routes. He could make a team as a free agent, but I’m not sure he’ll get drafted. Maybe in a late round. He needs to bulk up a little to be an NFL TE.

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