Quick Look Ahead

Now that the ol’ State fans’ optimism is running high after beating the Pirates, let’s take a quick look at where State stands and what we have to look forward to over the last half of the season.

State’s current national and conference ranking in the major statistical categories.

 

National

Conf

 

 

 

Rushing
Offense

109

11

Passing
Offense

53

4

Total Offense

103

10

Scoring
Offense

94

12

Passing
Efficiency

104

11

Sacks
Allowed

87

7

 

 

 

Rushing
Defense

103

12

Pass
Defense

T-34

4

Pass
Efficiency Defense

29

5

Total
Defense

76

11

Scoring
Defense

68

11

Sacks

62

10

Tackles
For Loss

56

10

 

 

 

Net
Punting

58

8

Punt
Returns

15

2

Kickoff
Returns

55

5

Turnover
Margin

119

12

Now let’s look at the opponents:

 

ECU

UVA

Miami

Rushing
Offense

86

78

57

Passing
Offense

75

92

98

Total
Offense

94

101

96

Scoring
Offense

59

89

70

Passing
Efficiency

80

89

54

Sacks
Allowed

85

61

41

 

UNC

WF

UMd

Rushing
Offense

102

64

56

Passing
Offense

48

82

105

Total
Offense

90

83

98

Scoring
Offense

90

50

76

Passing
Efficiency

39

70

62

Sacks
Allowed

T-101

10

T-109

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECU

UVA

Miami

Rushing
Defense

55

23

46

Pass
Defense

116

T-34

22

Pass
Efficiency Defense

106

37

57

Total
Defense

103

21

32

Scoring
Defense

103

21

35

Sacks

43

T-15

T-15

Tackles
For Loss

13

74

24

 

UNC

WF

UMd

Rushing
Defense

49

38

62

Pass
Defense

43

60

42

Pass
Efficiency Defense

77

26

45

Total
Defense

42

50

51

Scoring
Defense

50

51

36

Sacks

38

T-30

93

Tackles
For Loss

T-29

T-29

101

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ECU

UVA

Miami

Net
Punting

87

23

79

Punt
Returns

101

59

60

Kickoff
Returns

6

105

83

Turnover
Margin

7

60

47

 

UNC

WF

UMd

Net
Punting

26

76

36

Punt
Returns

55

61

66

Kickoff
Returns

87

72

115

Turnover
Margin

89

T-32

T-32

OBSERVATIONS

As many people have noted, the second half of State’s schedule is much easier than first half. However, ECU is clearly the easiest team in the last half of the season.

None of those teams are unbeatable….especially when you look at their offenses. This underscores the double-edged nature of State turnovers….

– Option 1 – Throwing away scoring opportunities that are few and far in-between for State’s anemic offense.

– Option 2 – Giving scoring opportunities to the opponents that they would have trouble earning on their own.

As many people have said many different ways, State can simply not afford to turn the ball over if they are going to have any chance to win.

Not only was ECU the weakest team in the last-half of the schedule, their defense is substantially weaker than the ACC teams that State will face. Right now it looks like State will face the two best (statistically speaking) defenses (UVA and Miami) over the next two weeks. It’s also important to note that UVa and UM have the best pass defenses that State will face for the remainder of the year.

– I guess it won’t take long to see if State’s offense has really improved or not.

Consider the following:

– NC State’s best two running backs are out for the year.
– State’s rushing attack ranks 109th in the country.

– State’s OL ranks 87th in sacks allowed.

So could everyone that keeps claiming that “State needs to establish the run”, please give it a rest? State hasn’t done it against anyone other than Wofford and there is absolutely no reason to think they will against any of the remaining teams. (Wofford is the only game that State managed to get over 100 yds net rushing.)

VIRGINIA

– I’ve seen UVa play twice and I wasn’t overly impressed either time.
– I look at their stats and I’m not impressed.
– Losing to Wyoming is certainly not impressive
– UVA struggled with both MTSU and UConn…not impressive.
– However, a team that wins their last three games by a total of four points impresses me.
– A team on a seven game winning streak impresses me.

Somehow UVa is playing to the level of their competition but still manages to come out on the winning side. They are either a team of destiny or they are ripe for a fall. Hopefully, they will look past State and be preoccupied with their game against WF next weekend.

RUSHING DEFENSE

As shown earlier, State’s defense against the rush has not been that good so far this season. You know that this will be an issue when State travels to Winston-Salem, but I was surprised to see that Maryland ranks second in the conference (to GT) in rushing yardage. So State’s rush defense will be one of the keys to the last two games of the season.

STRANGE FACT

BC currently has the nation’s #1 rushing defense. However, their pass defense is ranked 105th in the country and last in the conference. What’s up with that?

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

'07 Football NCS Football

43 Responses to Quick Look Ahead

  1. tacobellmanager 10/24/2007 at 11:53 AM #

    /threadjack

    http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/10/24/duke-north-carolina-top-basketball-times-list-of-best-programs/1#c8318119

    “The Basketball Times released their list of top college hoops programs over the last ten years. Topping the list: the Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels.”

    This just in, U.S. military most powerful, GNP largest, over past 30 years. Jupiter also largest planet in solar system.

    Basketball writer instinct: When no current reason exists to fellate Duke and North Carolina, make one up.

    There are BB entries available to post BB comments on
    VaWolf82

  2. Stoner 10/24/2007 at 11:57 AM #

    On the bright side:

    Our offense scored more than 20 pts. for the first time in ages.

    Our QB had more TD passes than interceptions.

    We committed fewer turnovers than our opponent.

    If we can keep this up we could surprise some teams. I never thought I’d see the day when an NCSU QB has a good game against an opposing team, instead of the usual disasterous day of 3 interceptions and a couple of fumbles for turnovers.

    There is light at the end of the tunnel. I believe we can finish the season strong, even if we don’t make a bowl. I’ll be happy with any improvement the team shows.

  3. BJD95 10/24/2007 at 12:47 PM #

    I think the key to the UVA game is taking our FGs when we can. We can’t turn the ball over in the red zone, or take sacks/not pick up some yards on 3rd and long when in borderline FG territory.

    Steven Hauschka is probably our best offensive weapon, and against an offensively challenged team like UVA, we need to make sure that we use him.

    Don’t let the Cavalier defense make big, game-changing plays.

  4. Wolf Hound 10/24/2007 at 12:58 PM #

    Great listing of the stats for each of the remaining teams. A lot can be taken from those stats and understand partially why we performed well last week. ECU was clearly a weaker team against the pass than what we will be seeing coming up. Thus, that may be a large part of our success along with better execution.

    The question is whether when faced with superior defenses than what we saw last week, can our offense execute as well. From our past experience I would say no. The only other reasonable winnable game left on our schedule is UNC with a weak pass defense compared to the others.

    I don’t think the turnovers will dwindle much. Evans almost threw 2 picks for TD’s last week if the DB’s would have held on. When faced with a better defense and therefore more pressure, I don’t have the confidence that our QB’s (I don’t think we have seen the last of rotating QB’s) will be forced to make throws that they wouldn’t if they had time. My main concern is just improving and playing the game of our life against UNC for a win.

  5. choppack1 10/24/2007 at 1:22 PM #

    ECU got where they were by TO margin – they were one of the tops in the country in this area.

    One thing about UNC – I do believe their D is improving – as is ours. It also appears that their offense is improving too.

    It will be interesting to see how our offense holds up against a very good UVa D. Just don’t turn the ball over – and we’ll be in this game.

  6. haze 10/24/2007 at 1:23 PM #

    The stats indicate (as intimated by Section Six several days prior to the game) that ECU has been living off of turnovers. Take away the TO battle and ECU is mediocre at best, as we showed Sat.

    As for the rest of our schedule, ALL of the defenses are light years ahead of ECU but there are no shining lights on the offensive side of the LOS. Only UNC is turnover prone. If we can avoid TO’s ourselves, we should be able to make these into ugly games that reduce down to a few big plays. We have a puncher’s chance across the board and that’s not bad given our current situation.

    On a last note, getting ahead early is going to be big so long as DE is at the helm. He’s not the same QB coming from behind.

  7. packbackr04 10/24/2007 at 2:00 PM #

    agreed haze, if we get behind and Evans has to force long pass plays down the field… that is not his game. he is however capable of running an offense (if given time in the pocket) and making some nice 15 yd and shorter pass completions… asking him to constantly go deep does not cater to his game. I know VAwolf said to stop talking about establishing the run, but this team will never be any good if we cant establish a running game, D Evans is just not good enough to carry the team.. the O line needs to start blocking people if we want to win another game this year.

  8. RochesterRedWolf 10/24/2007 at 3:13 PM #

    as we all know, games are won and lost on the LOS. Now let’s look at the numbers again to see if ECU is better or worse than UNC in that dept.

    Rushing Offense and Sacks Allowed: ECU
    Passing Stats: UNC

    ECU has a better line than UNC even if its percentages, and we dominated both sides of the ball and UNC didn’t. We held a fairly explosive offensive team in check and one of the top running backs in the country as well.

    All of this would be some math to think about…

    A team that plays behind all year will have alot more passing attempts, thus alot more chances to have big yardage and concomitantly, more chances to throw interceptions and get sacked for instance. This is also contingent on what defense is played if the opposing team is ahead or the game is close. So do they play more zone or do they blitz more, and or course you have to factor in playing prevent. There’s like 10 other things i could think of.

    I think all of it is apples and oranges is my conclusion. You can’t look at national rankings, especially when those are the same national rankings that include SEC and Big10 schools who maybe could clean the clock of most of the ACC programs this year.

    You can only compare teams that have played each other that you have played that your team is going to play. So the fact that ECU played UCF and we played UCF should give some more general hint as to what the outcome would have been. We played ECU and Carolina played ECU that SHOULD give some measure of how the game will turn out. But then of course that factors in things like gaining momentum and competency over the course of a season, coming off bye-weeks, injury reports, was it a freaky weather day.

  9. RochesterRedWolf 10/24/2007 at 3:51 PM #

    anyone see the few stories, they even found their way onto the N&0 and CharObs about Butch Davis and Arkansas…the tirehole fans are pisssssssed man…funny.

  10. VaWolf82 10/24/2007 at 3:54 PM #

    You can’t look at national rankings,

    Yes you can….if you’re careful about what types of conclusions that you draw. For instance, ECU’s stats are based on playing C-USA teams and two of the worst teams in the ACC. So any time you find a stat where ECU ranks near the bottom of all Div 1A FB teams…..then you can clearly conclude that they are pretty bad in that area.

    In general, all of the teams remaining on State’s schedule are better than ECU (even though ECU beat UNC). The unstated point of the entry was to show that we shouldn’t get too excited over one win against a substandard opponent.

    If you notice the points that I elaborated on all follow a general trend, without making projections about any single match-up. A team that lives and dies with the run (ie UMD) is unlikely to change their strategy when they play the Pack.

  11. roandaddy 10/24/2007 at 5:08 PM #

    “If you turn this stadium around.. I would be in the FRONT ROW!”

  12. bTHEredterror 10/24/2007 at 5:51 PM #

    Virginia is hard to figure out. Yes they are winning close games, but the competition is suspect at best. A Uconn team, that may not be as good as they look, and Maryland are the only teams we likely would have lost to. They are playing like an experienced, undertalented team. They do what they must and squeak out a field goal or less victory. But they seem due for a slip-up and here we are, a beleaguered underdog who just won a game and gets to come home for a game in front of 55,000 fans. I think we beat ’em taking advantage of turnovers, I was waiting for that game last week to push us around the corner. Though we are severely depleted we have some talent, and they are starting to make plays in the system. Absolutely right about a getting a lead early, which will force Sewell to throw the ball.

  13. Primewolf 10/24/2007 at 8:20 PM #

    UVA gameplan:

    1. Run at Howie Long and trap him.
    2. Use sprint out passes once in each 4 plays.
    3. Throw it deep to Bowen once we get to the 40 yard line;
    where an interception might be as good as a punt. Bowen is a real
    deep threat beast at 6’3″ 205 lbs. His catches and moves at ECU
    reminded me of pro receivers. Set up plays that pit him against
    UVA shortest backs.
    4. Use the shotgun alot.
    5. Go no huddle alot.
    6. Rotate QBs some. Give DE a break.
    7. Play solid contain defense.
    8. Break UVA’s streak of comeback 4qtr wins by winning
    it ourself in the 4th.
    9. The wolfpack fans will be electric and loud if we
    are in a neck to neck battle in the 4qtr.

  14. choppack1 10/24/2007 at 10:59 PM #

    “For instance, ECU’s stats are based on playing C-USA teams and two of the worst teams in the ACC. ”

    Well, they’ve also got VaTech and West Virginia in there too. As of right now, they’ve played 4 BCS teams. They’re certainly the worst Division 1A team we’ve played since UCF – but I think there’s a lot we can build on from Saturday night.

  15. choppack1 10/24/2007 at 11:41 PM #

    Here’s a post from my blog about Evans:
    Just some thoughts on Daniel Evans thus far. I wasn’t sure that our OL could play good enough to give the Pack a chance to win.

    With Evans – you know what you’ll get. He throws an accurate, easy to catch ball – he’s good at quick reads and quick throws. He’s not going to win any games relying on his arm or his legs to make plays. The staff did a solid job against FSU 2 weeks ago but he made a couple of bad decisions late in the first half and early in the 3rd quarter. Against ECU, he played about as good as he can play.

    Statistically, here’s a comparision between this year and last year:
    2007: 7 TDs vs. 6 INTs.
    2006: 6 TDs and 11 INTs.

    2007: Completion % 63.4% – 27th out of the 120 QBs rated.
    2006: Completion 53.1% – 95 out of 110 QBs.

    2007 – QB rating is 68th out of 120.
    2006 – 104 out of 110.

    So Evans has improved pretty significantly thus far. The bad news is that last year, he started off good and struggled at the finish. But w/ 5 games left, he’s surpassed his TDs from last year. More importantly, the more I become convinced that he can’t do the job, the better he plays. So on second thought – he’s still terrible.

  16. RochesterRedWolf 10/25/2007 at 6:42 PM #

    commit #13 woohoo!
    http://ncstate.rivals.com/barrier_noentry.asp?sid=&script=content.asp&cid=731274&fid=&tid=&mid=&rid=

    Roy Mangram (we should change his name to Roy Man-gles-(th)em)

  17. Pack92 10/26/2007 at 1:36 PM #

    Vermiglio is oging to be a monster. He may not be the greatest physical specimen but he has kill. I guarantee every other D-lineman he faces this year is going to know what happens if he tries a cheap shot on him.
    As I have posted before, Kuhn is only going to get better. He is virtually playing on instinct and talent alone since he only played 4? years before coming to State? I played that many years before I was 10 years old. Moving him to DE is only going to let him use his head more as it opens up options he would not have as a DT. Anyone who saw him on the TOB show 2 weeks ago can attest, the kid has a really good head on his shoulders.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. StateFans Nation » Blog Archive » Quick Look at Miami - 10/30/2007

    […] for in the Miami game. This doesn’t qualify as a full-blown preview, but should help flesh out the numbers presented earlier. Feel free to add any observations you have about Miami in the comments […]

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