Quick Look Ahead

Now that the ol’ State fans’ optimism is running high after beating the Pirates, let’s take a quick look at where State stands and what we have to look forward to over the last half of the season.

State’s current national and conference ranking in the major statistical categories.

	National	Conf
Rushing Offense	109	11
Passing Offense	53	4
Total Offense	103	10
Scoring Offense	94	12
Passing Efficiency	104	11
Sacks Allowed	87	7
Rushing Defense	103	12
Pass Defense	T-34	4
Pass Efficiency Defense	29	5
Total Defense	76	11
Scoring Defense	68	11
Sacks	62	10
Tackles For Loss	56	10
Net Punting	58	8
Punt Returns	15	2
Kickoff Returns	55	5
Turnover Margin	119	12

Now let’s look at the opponents:

	ECU	UVA	Miami
Rushing Offense	86	78	57
Passing Offense	75	92	98
Total Offense	94	101	96
Scoring Offense	59	89	70
Passing Efficiency	80	89	54
Sacks Allowed	85	61	41
	UNC	WF	UMd
Rushing Offense	102	64	56
Passing Offense	48	82	105
Total Offense	90	83	98
Scoring Offense	90	50	76
Passing Efficiency	39	70	62
Sacks Allowed	T-101	10	T-109
	ECU	UVA	Miami
Rushing Defense	55	23	46
Pass Defense	116	T-34	22
Pass Efficiency Defense	106	37	57
Total Defense	103	21	32
Scoring Defense	103	21	35
Sacks	43	T-15	T-15
Tackles For Loss	13	74	24
	UNC	WF	UMd
Rushing Defense	49	38	62
Pass Defense	43	60	42
Pass Efficiency Defense	77	26	45
Total Defense	42	50	51
Scoring Defense	50	51	36
Sacks	38	T-30	93
Tackles For Loss	T-29	T-29	101
	ECU	UVA	Miami
Net Punting	87	23	79
Punt Returns	101	59	60
Kickoff Returns	6	105	83
Turnover Margin	7	60	47
	UNC	WF	UMd
Net Punting	26	76	36
Punt Returns	55	61	66
Kickoff Returns	87	72	115
Turnover Margin	89	T-32	T-32

OBSERVATIONS

As many people have noted, the second half of State’s schedule is much easier than first half. However, ECU is clearly the easiest team in the last half of the season.

None of those teams are unbeatable….especially when you look at their offenses. This underscores the double-edged nature of State turnovers….

– Option 1 – Throwing away scoring opportunities that are few and far in-between for State’s anemic offense.

– Option 2 – Giving scoring opportunities to the opponents that they would have trouble earning on their own.

As many people have said many different ways, State can simply not afford to turn the ball over if they are going to have any chance to win.

Not only was ECU the weakest team in the last-half of the schedule, their defense is substantially weaker than the ACC teams that State will face. Right now it looks like State will face the two best (statistically speaking) defenses (UVA and Miami) over the next two weeks. It’s also important to note that UVa and UM have the best pass defenses that State will face for the remainder of the year.

– I guess it won’t take long to see if State’s offense has really improved or not.

Consider the following:

– NC State’s best two running backs are out for the year.
– State’s rushing attack ranks 109th in the country.

– State’s OL ranks 87th in sacks allowed.

So could everyone that keeps claiming that “State needs to establish the run”, please give it a rest? State hasn’t done it against anyone other than Wofford and there is absolutely no reason to think they will against any of the remaining teams. (Wofford is the only game that State managed to get over 100 yds net rushing.)

VIRGINIA

– I’ve seen UVa play twice and I wasn’t overly impressed either time.
– I look at their stats and I’m not impressed.
– Losing to Wyoming is certainly not impressive
– UVA struggled with both MTSU and UConn…not impressive.
– However, a team that wins their last three games by a total of four points impresses me.
– A team on a seven game winning streak impresses me.

Somehow UVa is playing to the level of their competition but still manages to come out on the winning side. They are either a team of destiny or they are ripe for a fall. Hopefully, they will look past State and be preoccupied with their game against WF next weekend.

RUSHING DEFENSE

As shown earlier, State’s defense against the rush has not been that good so far this season. You know that this will be an issue when State travels to Winston-Salem, but I was surprised to see that Maryland ranks second in the conference (to GT) in rushing yardage. So State’s rush defense will be one of the keys to the last two games of the season.

STRANGE FACT

BC currently has the nation’s #1 rushing defense. However, their pass defense is ranked 105th in the country and last in the conference. What’s up with that?