As most of you know by now, the writers here at SFN are neither bashful nor delusionally optimistic. So in keeping with those themes, here are the things that I expect to see this weekend from FSU.
FSU OVERALL STRATEGY
Here are a few of the starting assumptions that I would use if I were on the FSU coaching staff planning for Saturday’s game:
– Clearly, this is a game that State can not win, but FSU’s offense could lose.
– The continuing theme in Tallahassee (and around the conference) is that FSU’s offense is the weakest link on the team. QB has been a problem ever since Weinke’s graduation and now Xavier Lee is being given another chance at the position.
– X. Lee is still a work in progress and needs to improve if FSU is going to seriously compete for the divisional title. The State game should be a perfect chance for X to work on his decision making.
– State’s offense is so anemic that no major defensive strategy shifts are needed. This game should be a good opportunity to go past the two-deep and give some promising youngsters some time on the field.
FSU OFFENSE
Most of us vividly remember the 2004 Thursday night game against FSU where both teams combined for about 250 yards of offense. One of the key things that I remember from that game is the extreme conservatism the FSU offense displayed that night as long as they were inside their own 40 yard line. Bottom Line…Chris Rix was not given an opportunity to lose that game.
If I were in charge, I would use the same strategy against State. Inside the FSU 40, there is no reason (regardless of down or distance) for FSU to throw. State’s rushing defense is unlikely to consistently stop either the inside or outside running game. Thus there is no reason to take a chance on giving State a “Pick Six†and giving State points that their offense can’t earn on their own.
However, once FSU moves close to midfield, a worse-case scenario would be to give State good field position that would most likely lead to a FG attempt. Thus once FSU nears mid-field, it is time to open up the play book and give X a chance to show if he’s learned anything.
Based on what I’ve seen against Clemson and Alabama, FSU’s best chance to make some noise this year is for X. Lee to learn when to throw and when to tuck the ball and run. X’s running ability should give FSU some more offensive options than with Drew Weatherford. However, X needs to make better decisions than he has shown in past seasons. This game should be an opportunity for X to learn while also being able to insure that any mistakes do not lose the game.
As far as the rushing offense goes, the games to date indicate that FSU should have no trouble running between the tackles for consistent gains. I also expect that Antoine Smith to constantly try to turn the corners for big gains. While FSU’s rushing offense is nothing special, State’s run defense has been worse.
FSU DEFENSE
You can’t really expect FSU to make any major shifts against an offense that can’t get out of its own way. I expect man coverage with at least 7 or 8 men in the box to stop the run and the short passes. I would be shocked to see any DB line up deeper than 15 yards from the line of scrimmage (with the obvious exception of the return man on punts).
I expect to see occasional blitzes, but probably nothing that we haven’t seen in the past. I expect to see the DB’s attempt to jump some of the sideline pass routes for a big play. Whether this is by design or just their natural instinct, it’s hard to say.
They may change their defense slightly if the front four are able to get sufficient pressure on Evans. If the front-four are generating pressure and QB hurries, then there would be little need to send additional men.
NCSU STRATEGY
It would be easy to lapse into sarcasm here, but I will attempt to control myself. From where I sit, State has to take chances on both sides of the ball to have any chance to win.
I think that State has to put 8 men in the box and attempt to do something new….stop the run. This includes between the tackles, sweeps to the outside, and QB draws/scrambles. If FSU goes conservative and State can not stop the run, then it will be time to turn the channel.
State needs to stop FSU drives early. Force X Lee to pass, and then State will have some chance to generate points and/or good field position. Force FSU to punt and give Blackmon a chance to do something special.
On offense, State has to depend on a short passing game even though everyone in the stadium knows what is coming. One key is for the short passes to be past the line of scrimmage so that a few yards is gained even with good coverage and tackling. Forward passes behind the LOS will likely be as effective as State’s rushing offense has proven so far this year.
State does not have many cards to play on offense. This means that State has to be very good using the ones that they do have. Even if State plays their best game of the year, it looks to me like they will need some additional assistance from FSU. I watched Chris Weinke set a conference record for interceptions and give State their first victory over FSU. So there’s always a chance, even if it is miniscule.
