Predict the Games

'07 Football General NCS Football On the Record Tom O'Brien129

These are only my guesses, but now is as good a time as any to make them. Remember, these are predictions, not hopes or best case scenarios. I wouldn’t be shocked by anything between 4 and 7 regular season wins. Feel free to add your own in the comments.

Game 1: vs. Central Florida (Win; 75% confidence) – This game scares the hell out of me. UCF has a good coach, and they are a veteran team coming off a very disappointing season. O’Leary would love to beat an ACC team, and his kids will be loaded for bear. I just don’t see Tom O’Brien losing his first game as head coach.

Game 2: at Boston College (Loss; 85% confidence) – I really wanted to pick a win here, but that’s not logical (just an emotional reaction to BC fan smack-talk in the offseason). BC returns more starters than we do, and was significantly better than us last year (despite the somewhat fluky loss head-to-head). I don’t like the scrimmage reports on our QB situation, and an early road game will likely exacerbate that problem. Enjoy your gloating, Eagle fans – it will be clear after 3 seasons who won this particular coaching shuffle.

Game 3: vs. Wofford (Win; 99% confidence) – We may not be good this year, but we won’t lose to Wofford. Even under Amato, I would feel good about that (he probably would have gone 2-10, beating Wofford and FSU).

Game 4: vs. Clemson (Loss; 70% confidence) – The Tiggers should be able to dominate the Pack physically (and run hog wild against our LBs), but their coach is one of two Bowdens on the hot seat, and a complete team meltdown is not out of the question.

Game 5: vs. Louisville (Loss; 80% confidence) – Louisville might be the best opponent on NC State’s schedule, but we’ll see how much they miss Bobby Petrino. I like our chances for a huge upset if this is a night game.

Game 6: at Florida State (Loss; 90% confidence) – Again, we should be dominated physically, and our non-existent depth should be giving us trouble against deep, athletic teams by this point in the season. To borrow from my BC thoughts – enjoy your gloating, few remaining members of the “Cult of Chuck” – it will be clear after 3 seasons who won this particular coaching shuffle.

Game 7: at East Carolina (Win; 55% confidence) – Here is the game where I believe Coach O’Brien will get us a win we wouldn’t have been able to achieve without him. With an off week to get healthy and prepare, I expect the Wolfpack to do some riot prevention against the Pirates. You’re welcome, Greenville Police Department.

Game 8: vs. Virginia (Win; 60% confidence) – I expect the Cavs to be in full free-fall mode at this point, as Al Groh prepares for the firing squad. It would be much better for the game to be a week later (UVA historically sucks in November), but late October will have to do. Should be nice weather for this game, so allow for extra tailgating time.

Game 9: at Miami (Loss; 85% confidence) – This is pretty much a repeat of the FSU prediction, but the Canes are slightly less imposing physically (and sans the Amato drama).

Game 10: vs. UNC (Win; 95% confidence) – Because TOB promised us. And the alternative is unthinkable.

Game 11: at Wake Forest (Loss; 80% confidence) – Many people will predict a win here, and I agree that the Deacs won’t likely repeat their stirring title run. However, their rushing attack is a particularly bad matchup for our linebacking corps.

Game 12: vs. Maryland (Loss; 55% confidence) – I think the Pack comes very, very close to winning this game and attaining bowl eligibility, but falls just short. A lack of depth catches up with you at season’s end, and we will be coming off a bruising, physical game against Wake. The timing absolutely sucks for us.

Predicted Record: 5-7 (2-6); Mathematical Median: 5.39 wins

BJD95, on the record.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

'07 Football General NCS Football On the Record Tom O'Brien

129 Responses to Predict the Games

  1. TNCSU 08/14/2007 at 11:42 AM #

    I like your optimism, Primacyone. But, I’ll up you one — we get to the Elite Eight THIS year!! What’s the latest on the Recruiting front?? Are we looking to sign anyone this summer/fall??

  2. WolftownVA81 08/14/2007 at 12:31 PM #

    I would be thrilled to see a 6-6 year. However, I am hopeful we’ll see better. Did we have any expectation that last year’s BB would be as successful as they were? I would not under estimate the intangibles that good coaching/leadership brings. If our kids get motivated and buy into the program, we might see some pretty spectacular things this year. UCF will be a good indicator for the year. By the BC game, we’ll know what to expect for the rest of the season. I think the players and the coaching staff all have something they’d like to prove.

  3. primacyone 08/14/2007 at 12:38 PM #

    Here is the offical Roster. Big Lew is not listed. Maybe some of the engineers on here could tell you if that leaves any room for another 2008 recruit?

    1 Hickson, J.J. F/C 6-9 242 Fr.
    2 Harris, Simon F 6-5 239 RJr.
    4 Fells, Courtney G 6-5 205 Jr.
    10 Gonzalez, Javier G 6-0 176 Fr.
    11 Grant, Gavin F 6-8 208 Sr.
    12 Degand, Farnold G 6-4 178 RSo.
    13 Johnson, Marques G 6-5 205 So.
    15 Ferguson, Trevor G 6-5 185 RSo.
    23 Smith, Tracy F 6-7 232 Fr.
    25 Williams, Chad G 6-3 200 Sr.
    30 Thomas, Johnny F 6-5 205 Fr.
    31 Horner, Dennis F 6-8 220 So.
    33 Costner, Brandon F 6-9 238 RSo.
    34 McCauley, Ben F/C 6-10 238 Jr.

    Here is a good article on John Wall – 2009 PG prospect from Word of God Christain Academy in Raleigh. John is now a 5 star and #2 rated PG in the class of 2009. This is free and non-premium at yahoo sports: http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news?slug=rivals-147393&prov=rivals&type=story_recruiting (Long Link so you may have to copy and paste)

    (By the way, for all of the non-triangle residents’ – Word of God is considered a fine academic institution and a strong history of academic achievers – They compete with Ravenscroft, Greensboro Day, Wayne Country Day, Parrot Academy, Cary Academy, etc.) It’s possible that C.J. Lesile may transfer there this year or next. C.J. and John have been playing together some this summer.

    Also, Earnest Ross, A highly rated 2009 SG out of Cary, is scheduled to be on campus for an unoffical visit sometime this week or next.

    Ross and Wall could be the 2009 version of Whitenburg and Lowe.

  4. lush 08/14/2007 at 1:21 PM #

    ^ ^ three NCAA tourney wins would be elite 8, did you mean acc tourney wins? that would be a championship if we finished 2nd

  5. lush 08/14/2007 at 1:21 PM #

    ^in the regular season

  6. primacyone 08/14/2007 at 1:35 PM #

    ^^^^You’re right. Make that two NCAA wins and another loss in the sweet 16 game and another win for the ACC Tournament Championship game. That would be 28-10.

  7. pakfanistan 08/14/2007 at 2:04 PM #

    We’re winning out in bball too. 40-0.

    You heard it here first.

  8. primacyone 08/14/2007 at 2:07 PM #

    ^^^Dang it. Lee Fowler is going to get another contract extension.

  9. StateFoxer 08/14/2007 at 2:39 PM #

    ^^I’m with you. And we do it for 3 consecutive seasons. 120-0. Take it to the bank.

  10. CaptainCraptacular 08/14/2007 at 2:42 PM #

    I’m catching the pessimistic bug that Noah is spreading. I see 3 potential wins: Wofford, ECU, and Virginia. UNC is a maybe, but I have zero confidence in our teams ability to beat them. They have been in our guys heads (as well as mine).

    To the delusional majority thinking that we will beat (or even have a chance vs) Louisville: I *don’t* want whatever it is you are taking because its some hard-core reality altering shit and I swore off that stuff back in the day. That game will be ugly, and ugly early. Louisville leads by no fewer than 23 points by halftime.

    Primacy: does recruiting class of 2009 mean Wall is a rising junior this year? I have no idea how recruiting ratings are calculated, but if he is just a rising junior, someone who’s played but 2 years of high school ball and with his High School’s primary competition being private upper crust academies like Ravenscroft, how does one truly judge his skill level? That would scare me a little bit. Its one thing if he’s excelling vs the inner city boys, but another if he’s playing against the country club set.

  11. McPete 08/14/2007 at 3:00 PM #

    Captain Craptacular,
    go to the link posted by primacy and you’ll have an answer to your question about Wall.

    As far as football season goes, i suppose when you set your expectations so low, it’s hard to be dissapointed. there were more than three wins worth of talent on last years’ team, and there is more than three wins of talent on this years’ team. hopefully, this staff (unlike the last) can translate that to a few more wins. i’m not saying they should win the atlantic based on talent, but a bowl season should be reachable.

  12. packpower 08/14/2007 at 3:10 PM #

    I expect the defense to be excellent and the QB play improved this year; however, Mike O’Cain left Amato with a broader range of talent than Amato left Tom O’Brien.

    I wanted Amato to be successful but let’s face it, beginning in 2003, which was the first team comprised primarily of Amato’s players coached by Amato’s coaches. Does anyone else think it was a mere coincidence that once linemen coached by Robbie Caldwell and Marty Galbraith (who was a great hire by Amato) graduated, the OL play deteriorated? Also, don’t discount the decision not to promote Mike Canales to Offensive Coordinator.

    O’Brien is doing things the right way and will be successful. Expect improvement on the Offensive Line in particular.

    I still say 6-6 will be a satisfying season.

  13. PAPacker 08/14/2007 at 3:17 PM #

    Given the fact that Amato backed his way through three wins, I think TOB at al can eek out 5 and I would go with 6. (UCF, Wofford, ECU, UVA and UNC) (UNC is NOT in TOB’s head and I would bet he won’t let them be in his squad’s heads either. ) Maryland would be my 6th win. I would bet TOB wrings every bit of effort and ingenuity he can out of this squad. Wake would be my 7th possible. Losing and chaos is going to ebb and confidence is going to increase as the season goes along. It’s all on the offensive line, which I think TOB’s staff can maximize and the QB(‘s) which no one can say. Depending on how depth holds out, I would be they are a much better football team in November. By the way, given their having a first year coach trying to overcome a very bad coaching situation, I would see Miami as being less of a certain loss than some others would.

  14. packpower 08/14/2007 at 3:24 PM #

    If Tom O’Brien works magic with the OL, the QB situation will be OK. When Evans had time last year, he was solid.

  15. CaptainCraptacular 08/14/2007 at 3:33 PM #

    *go to the link posted by primacy and you’ll have an answer to your question about Wall.*

    I did go to the link, it says nothing about whether he’s a rising junior or what. I just wanted confirmation to make sure recruiting class of 2009 means he will be a junior this year.

    As for the other stuff, the article mentions he attended one camp against top competition and impressed everyone there. He plays AAU, but he barely got an invite to the camp, so his AAU team must not have watched very widely before then. I don’t know.. one camp and he’s suddenly a top player when his primary competition is still private academies? Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and the smoke is that a lot of top programs have offered him, but hey, if he’s good he’s good. Hope he’s all that and a bag of chips, and Sidney impresses his socks off. I know I’ll be one of his biggest fans if he pulls on a State jersey.

    *there were more than three wins worth of talent on last years’ team, and there is more than three wins of talent on this years’ team.*

    There hasn’t been a lot of talent in the pipeline the last 2 years to replace what has left through graduation or draft. We’ve lost some talent on D, they have a new system, our O-Line is extremely thin, we’ve lost our all-ACC TE for the season, and our QB situation is muddled, to say the least, with no clear answer to take us to the promised land. Low expectations does = low disappointment, but I’m not setting expectations low just for the sake of not being disappointed. In addition to being pessimistic, I’m also being realistic. UNC has owned us for 3 years (yes the games were close but we couldn’t stop them when it counted, and they are in our heads). That will be hanging over their heads this year…. I hope it doesn’t affect them that much but I know it will. ECU beat us soundly last year, and I’m counting them as a win this year. Who knows, they may be better this year than last. Wake will still be solidly good this year, even though their record may not show it. Maryland was 9-4 last year and are on the upswing. Clemson has more talent across the board (possibly even tailback) than we do right now, BC has a new coach who’s totally unproven, but they do have senior leadership (Ryan, Toal) second to none in the ACC this year at least. Its my firm belief FSU and Miami’s nadir was last year, and I think you will see vast improvement from both of them this year. Maybe not national championship dominance, but it will take a helluva game from any one of the other 10 schools to beat them (cept maybe VT who could have some mistake room and still win). UCF has traditionally played the BCS schools on their schedule very very tough. They will be very up for this game and if we win it will be too close for comfort.

    If we go 6-6 I would be jump for joy ecstatic with TOB and staff.

  16. lush 08/14/2007 at 3:41 PM #

    “To the delusional majority thinking that we will beat (or even have a chance vs) Louisville”

    Who died and made Louisville a powerhouse to be scared of?? They played two good teams last year and lost to one of them and then had the easiest BCS opponent in Wake Forrest. They have a Heisman candidate QB, yes, but he is learning a new offense. and the last one we played against, we picked off 6 times. Show some support and stand behind your school, save that “Louisville leads by no fewer than 23 points by halftime” garbage for the N & O.

  17. TNCSU 08/14/2007 at 3:56 PM #

    ^^^I just wanted confirmation to make sure recruiting class of 2009 means he will be a junior this year.

    That is correct — rising junior is class of 2009 — although the prospects change classes from time to time.

  18. CaptainCraptacular 08/14/2007 at 4:23 PM #

    *Who died and made Louisville a powerhouse to be scared of??*

    I watched several Louisville games last year. They were physical, big, athletic, gifted. Not to mention they have the Kiper’s clear #1 QB in next years draft (meaning he’s got the tools).

    The single game Louisville lost was by what.. 3 points?

    For reference I give you this. Miami played every single team they played last year very close except one. They easily could have gone 10-1 had a few bounces gone their way. They were not as bad a team as everyone who seems to write them off thinks. A bunch of suspensions for fighting and a teammate who was murdered tends to distract a team.

    The one team Miami didn’t play close? Lousville absolutely destroyed them, and this was well before the fight and the Pata situation. The game I remember watching wasn’t as close as the 31-7 score indicated. Loiusville took it to them early, and make them look slow and untalented.

    *Show some support and stand behind your school*

    This really sets me off. Unbelievable. Whats the title of this thread? Predict the games. I didn’t realize being asked to predict the games was actually saying to show blind patiotism and blind optimism for the team. How naive of me to think otherwise. I’m so sorry Mr. Sanctimonious.

    For you to suggest that somehow my believing that Louisville will blow us out translates into a lack of support for our school is really amazing. I believed FSU would blow us out regularly in the early MOC era, but that didn’t make me any less of a fan. I have the highest of hopes for the extended TOB era. I give dutifully to the WPC, even though where I live prevents me from attending that many games. Please don’t give me that stand behind your team crap.

  19. packpower 08/14/2007 at 4:41 PM #

    As difficult as at seems to believe, Wake Forest dominated everyone in the ACC in the Fourth Quarter except Virginia Tech. Guess who dominated Wake in the fourth quarter – Louisville. Louisville is Virginia Tech with non-qualifiers.

  20. PAPacker 08/14/2007 at 4:51 PM #

    I have to stand with the Captain here. Accusing someone of standing with the N and O is enough to make me reach for my tire iron. I think you should apologize. I remember when FSU hung 77 on us. Realism is a good thing.

  21. PAPacker 08/14/2007 at 4:52 PM #

    Go Red Tornados!

  22. PAPacker 08/14/2007 at 4:53 PM #

    Hey SFN, are you planning one of those wikipedia type things where you tabulate the predictions and see if our collective wisdom comes anywhere near the number of games we actually win this fall?

  23. Trout 08/14/2007 at 4:58 PM #

    http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/analysis_acc_ncst.html

    Predicts us at 2-10, with wins over Wofford and UNC, and double digit losses to everyone else, except UCF, whom they predict a close loss

  24. PamlicoPack 08/14/2007 at 5:25 PM #

    Captain Craptacular: don’t get too bent out of shape about the knuckleheads who want to bash other State fans for making a serious attempt at predicting the season. Since the days of the original Wolfchat in the early days of the Internet there have been yutzes who consider admitting we might lose a game on a preseason prediction thread to be treasonous…

  25. waxhaw 08/14/2007 at 6:48 PM #

    Lowe did bring about a positive with just a coaching change. However, those initial steps were recruiting successes, making the NIT and getting better as the year went along.

    TOB can definitely do the same. However, those will be recruiting successes and hopefully squeaking into a bowl. I don’t see coaching being the difference between 3-8 and 8-3. That’s why I think 6-6 will be a very good first step.

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