Basketball Schedule Released (With OOC Analysis)

07-08 Basketball General NCS Basketball75

The 2007-2008 basketball schedule is hot off the presses. Our first glance tells us that, there are not a lot of Sunday night FSN games this year.

10/27 – Red/White Scrimmage

11/1 – Barton College (Exh.) 7:00 p.m.

SFN Analysis: We’ll probably have to link to the YouTube of the wild D-III finish again. Let’s hope our broadcast crew doesn’t embarrass themselves with talk of beating a “defending champion” like they did last football season.

11/6 – UNC Pembroke (Exh.) 7:00 p.m.

SFN Analysis: This just reminds us of the ubiquitous billboards on I-95 when we head south. Almost as much as South of the Border.

11/15 – William & Mary (7:00 p.m.)

SFN Analysis: An appropriate caliber opponent for a season opener (Sagarin 201). Sadly, there are 7 OOC foes that fared worse last season (shakes head incredulously). If we were the AA stop on the Lou Holtz career train, William & Mary was where he played A-ball.

11/18 – New Orleans (6:30 p.m., FSNS)

SFN Analysis: IIRC, this game is part of a “2 and 1” series with the Privateers, as part of our deal to hire away former head coach Monte Towe. Hey, at least it’s on TV, unlike the fabulous December road date that Lee so wisely lined up for us (more later).

Old Spice Classic – Orlando, Fla.

11/22 – Rider (2:00 p.m., ESPN2)

SFN Analysis: Rider is in the same conference as last year’s 2nd-round NIT opponent, Marist (we think). Avoiding the first round upset and staying on the ESPN2 path should be easy.

11/23 – Penn State/South Carolina (TBA, ESPN2 or ESPNU)

SFN Analysis: Penn State sucks, so let’s hope for NIT legend Dave Odom to square off with the Pack here. It would be nice to get at least a moderate test before likely facing our first legitimately talented foe.

11/25 – TBA – maybe Kansas State or Villanova? (TBA, ESPN2 or ESPNU)

SFN Analysis: Not much stands between one set of Wildcats (hat tip to RickJ from the comments) and the finals, so we will go ahead and anticipate these matchups. K State doesn’t have Huggy Bear anymore, but still has his recruits (for this year anyway). Incoming freshman Michael Beasley was the only player that impressed me as much as J.J. Hickson during the McDonald’s All-American game. K State would be a very interesting game that wouldn’t get much national attention. Villanova followed up their exciting 2005-06 season with a more pedestrian 2006-07, but they would also make a quality opponent here.

Big Ten/ACC Challenge

11/28 – at Michigan State (7:00 p.m., ESPN)

SFN Analysis: Here’s your first signature moment of the 2007-08 season, and we can thank the scheduling powers-that-be for a wonderful opportunity. For the first time in Challenge history, the Pack gets one of the 2 coveted non-Duke/Carolina “Big Boy ESPN” slots. Coming off 3 neutral court games (at least 1 or 2 of which should be at least mildly challenging), the Pack should be primed for a true road test. It’s all upside here, as a loss would be respectable, and a win would be a significant, nationally-recognized upset. The Spartan fans are also a classy bunch, based on my memories of a Sendek-era NCAAT matchup.

12/8 – at East Carolina (7:00 p.m.)

SFN Analysis: Memo to Lee Fowler – when a TV-friendly ACC team (expected to be in the Top 4 of the league) plays a non-conference road game that isn’t televised – you really fucked up. There’s no point in playing this game, other than exposing yourself to a chance (albeit very small) of abject humiliation. Want to think outside the box? Schedule a “2 for 1” against a Missouri Valley Conference team – not this Mickey Mouse shit.

12/15 – South Carolina State (2:30 p.m.)

SFN Analysis: We only play 2 games between 11/28 at Michigan State and 12/21 against Davidson (and this is one of them). I understand the need for an exam lull, but this is pretty extreme.

12/21 – Davidson (7:00 p.m., FSNS)

SFN Analysis: This was, IIRC, a late addition to the schedule. Thank God it was added, because it’s probably the best home game on the OOC schedule. Whoever guards Dell Curry’s kid needs to be awake and focused. Courtney and Gavin, this likely means you. Get your heads on straight now.

12/23 – Cincinnati (7:30 p.m., FSN)

SFN Analysis: Hopefully, some redemption for perhaps the ugliest loss of the 2006-07 season. As I watched the 2nd half over lunch with one of my kids at a Cary sports bar, I wondered if we really might go 1-15 or 2-14 in ACC play. Fortunately, we got better. Much better.

12/27 – at Seton Hall (TBA)

SFN Analysis: Former NC State commit Larry Davis will be in uniform for the Pirates. Wonder if he has any regrets? This will be a tough test, after 2 decent, bunched-together home games and only a very short break to see family for Christmas. A letdown game is very possible, perhaps even likely.

12/29 – Western Carolina (2:30 p.m.)

SFN Analysis: Curiously, we start a run of 3 extreme cupcake games, bridging the more balanced/interesting portion of our OOC schedule and conference play – going more than 2 weeks without an even mildly challenging game. I don’t see the logic in it at all – hopefully, our hands were tied and we didn’t choose such a ridiculous setup. Former Sendek assistant Larry Hunter returns to town, so there’s your point of interest.

1/5 – Presbyterian (2:30 p.m.)

SFN Analysis: The Pack rings in the new year with a first year D-I opponent. Even the worst 96-hour hangover couldn’t trip us up here – but I worry about creeping bad habits and loss of focus through this high-carb stretch.

1/9 – North Carolina Central (7:00 p.m.)

SFN Analysis: A second consecutive first-year D-I foe? That’s just freaking ridiculous. Before UNC, no less – about as extreme of a change in temperature as you can get. Think Antarctica vs. the Kalahari Desert.

1/12 – at North Carolina (12:00 p.m., ESPN)

1/15 – at Clemson (7:00 p.m., RSN)

1/19 – Miami (8:00 p.m., RLF Split)

1/23 – Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m., ESPN2)

1/26 – at Florida State (1:30 p.m., RLF)

1/31 – at Duke (9:00 p.m., RLF)

2/3 – Wake Forest (12:00 p.m., RLF)

2/5 – Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)

2/9 – at Maryland (8:00 p.m., RLF)

2/14 – at Boston College (7:00 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2)

2/16 – Clemson (3:00 p.m., RLF Split)

2/20 – North Carolina (7:00 p.m., ESPN)

2/24 – at Virginia (5:30 p.m., FSN)

2/27 – Florida State (7:00 p.m., ESPNU)

3/1 – Duke (12:00 p.m., CBS)

3/8 – at Wake Forest (12:00 p.m., RLF Split)

RSN – Regional Sports Network
FSN – Fox Sports Network
RLF – Raycom/Lincoln Financial Sports
FSNS – Fox Sports Net South

BJD95’s Initial Analysis:

We caught a good break with the ACC/Big Ten challenge game – otherwise, it’s a pretty lackluster schedule. I also don’t like the way it lays out – particularly the 15 days between the last legitimate opponent (12/27, at Seton Hall) and the ACC opener (1/12, at UNC). Naturally, I also don’t like opening ACC play with our most difficult matchup of the season. That just plain sucks. Once ACC play begins, no more OOC games. Don’t like that, either.

NC State’s final Sagarin rating last year was 64. Everyone certainly expects that the 2007-08 team will be stronger – so why does our best case scenario schedule (assuming we get South Carolina and Kansas State or ‘Nova in the last 2 rounds of the Old Spice Classic) involve playing only 3 OOC teams that rated higher, and 11 rated lower? If we get opponents other than the Gamecocks and Wildcats, that ratio could slip as low as an abhorrent 1:13. A maximum of 6 of our 14 opponents were rated between 1-200 last season, and we play #299 East Carolina on the fucking road. Great idea, Lee! Generously giving first year D-1 foes NC Central and Presbyterian default ratings of 300, the Sagarin average of Wolfpack OOC foes, assuming the best possible Old Spice opponents, is approximately 183.

One nice positive – at least three appearances on “big boy” ESPN, and at least 6 on ESPN/ESPN2 combined. The Pack only has one network game scheduled (home against Duke, on CBS), which is disappointing. Still, looks like we might be able to watch in HD 7 times this season.

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07-08 Basketball General NCS Basketball

75 Responses to Basketball Schedule Released (With OOC Analysis)

  1. primacyone 08/24/2007 at 3:45 PM #

    Are you pumped about basketball and Sidney Lowe. Gavin Grant is.

    Read this article: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2969060

    “He’ll be in the middle of a game and he’ll see something,” Grant said. “He’ll say, ‘Listen, every time down, they’re doing this or doing that, so you need to do this.’ I’ve never seen anything like it. The first time he did it, it worked. We scored like eight points in a row, so I was a believer. He called some for me, so I was like, ‘Alright I like this.’ I think we’ve got the best coach in the country.” – Gavin Grant on Coach Sidney Lowe.

  2. cpwolfpackfan 08/24/2007 at 4:13 PM #

    its going to be fun this year. Hope we can pull it all together

  3. LRM 08/24/2007 at 4:21 PM #

    ’99 UConn (34-2) is the only national champion in the past 10 years that has lost less than 4 games in a season…losing 5 or less puts you in absolute elite status. Maybe a tad overzealous…

  4. pakfanistan 08/24/2007 at 4:33 PM #

    The really key portion of that article is the following:

    “I think if me and a few other guys had played better in that ACC final game last year, we would have beaten Carolina and been in the NCAAs,” Grant said, barely pausing between incendiary thoughts. “That game just made me realize how good we are. We’re too good to be accepting moral victories. “

  5. RochesterRedWolf 08/24/2007 at 4:48 PM #

    noah, Zach Allen is a 3 year starter at Tackle

  6. TNCSU 08/24/2007 at 4:59 PM #

    Great article! I love the optimism!

  7. packbackr04 08/24/2007 at 5:06 PM #

    i think he meant 4 acc losses.. i could be wrong though

  8. noah 08/24/2007 at 5:08 PM #

    “noah, Zach Allen is a 3 year starter at Tackle”

    Three-year starter, maybe. But he’s a guard. He’s what the coaches want Crouch to be.

  9. lush 08/24/2007 at 5:16 PM #

    where you been packbacker?

    lets remember, this is the same gg who said “the recruiting here is about to go thew the roof” after the unc beatdown in raleigh.

    i think he was talking about 4 losses on the season, especially since he’s talking final four and national championship. i too love the opptimism but lets see if the guards can pass and if fells can shoot consistently before we go that far

  10. BJD95 08/24/2007 at 5:29 PM #

    They must teach extreme confidence at St. Raymond’s High – I think Grant takes it farther than even Hodge ever did. Still, for a fan, it’s great that he says exactly what’s on his mind. I like the window into how players see Sid and respond to his instruction.

  11. haze 08/24/2007 at 5:45 PM #

    Gavin is the best interview in the ACC. I don’t necessarily agree with all of his points but I love the sentiment.

    I do agree that Sid is a truly gifted game coach. It may be a premature judgement but I think Sid is better than any that I can remember in the ACC since Dean and V.

  12. redfred2 08/24/2007 at 6:39 PM #

    I didn’t really care what happened, I always loved GG’s confidence on the court. I think I give him more credit than most others do for being THE go to guy early on last season. He may not have always made the play, but he just kept on going and trying, ignoring the crowd especially when it seemed that the others were standing around and didn’t want any part of the basketball.

    Some people may not like to hear a player talking like that but I love it. It’s well past time for the Wolfpack to be an intimidating factor in the ACC once again.

    Like I said before, it may be hard for a “tweener” to make first team all ACC, but I expect to see a HUGE season out of our only senior on the team.

  13. vtpackfan 08/24/2007 at 7:27 PM #

    rf2, I too suffer from the same GG appreciation affliction. While I don’t think he will consistently put up great numbers this season, I do believe his attitude and leadership will add to a little “edgy” ingredient to the team chemistry.

    He is 6’7″. He is not the most skilled. He is not the most brilliant. But he has the confidence one would think would go along with the most skilled and cerrebrul of players. When he makes things happen, it’s never pretty. When I think of a way to sum up his game I think of a RD quote from “Caddyshack”

    “Hey baby, you wanna’ make fourteen dollars the hard way?”

  14. redfred2 08/24/2007 at 8:14 PM #

    vt, a favorite all time movie quote. Too funny!

    A lot of what you say may well be true, but Gavin Grant is the type of player who has the potential to take it right at, and challenge, anyone on the basketball court. Even last year and a season removed from…well, we won’t go into that, but he still played a leadership role and out of position. He is a hardnosed and very aggressive offensive player, with the incoming class and others becoming eligible, he should be able to really play his game for the first time this season. As a senior he’ll still be expected to be a leader, but it won’t be as a decision maker. His never quit and never back down attitude will be how he sets the tone for the rest of the team.

  15. wallacepark 08/24/2007 at 8:37 PM #

    Gavin is right; we will rock this season. At one point last year we were actually leading a top ACC opponent by 30 points (VA tech). When was the last time that happened? This year we will be able to truly run the ball and get more easy transition baskets.

    Javi and Degand don’t have to be big scorers, just play defense and get the ball down court to Fells and Gavin on the wings. With our depth this year and Lowe’s half-court offense and everyone playing their natural positions, this team is going to fly.

  16. Astral Rain2 08/24/2007 at 9:28 PM #

    I think the way the schedule lies out, it’s risky, but rewarding. It may come to bite if State’s on the bubble, but if they can pull off some upsets/good wins in the tough games, it could make the record better.

    I think 9 ACC wins may be needed- thankfully, I feel the odds of getting that are pretty good. I don’t care too much about the seed as long as they’re playing on that Thurs or Fri. Then again, I consider NCAA appearance as progress (and anything less would be VERY disappointing)

  17. Mr O 08/25/2007 at 10:19 PM #

    Noah: Are you expecting that someone is hurt??

  18. Rick 08/27/2007 at 8:30 AM #

    “I do agree that Sid is a truly gifted game coach. It may be a premature judgement but I think Sid is better than any that I can remember in the ACC since Dean and V.”

    I disagree that Dean was a great game coach. He was a system coach. If it worked it worked and if not he went down with the ship. He should have won more championships with the talent he had.

  19. noah 08/27/2007 at 9:25 AM #

    “Noah: Are you expecting that someone is hurt??”

    Couple of folks from what I hear.

  20. Mr O 08/27/2007 at 10:16 AM #

    Noah: That isn’t good. Season ending injuries? We can’t afford injuries on the OL(or really anywhere for that matter this year.)

  21. noah 08/27/2007 at 10:22 AM #

    I honestly don’t know.

    Supposedly, Evans has some sort of problem with his shoulder. Demario Pressley hasn’t been practicing and no one knows where John Dunlap has been.

    I’m assuming those are the ones that we’re waiting to find out about. It would really suck if there were more.

  22. Rick 08/27/2007 at 11:36 AM #

    “Supposedly, Evans has some sort of problem with his shoulder. Demario Pressley hasn’t been practicing and no one knows where John Dunlap has been.”

    Are there three that are more important to this team? Good lands

  23. Mr O 08/27/2007 at 1:24 PM #

    Pressley is questionable with an elbow sprain. Dunlap is 1st string.

    McCuller’s suspension looks to be at least one game. That means we have two true freshman as backups on the OL.

  24. RickJ 08/27/2007 at 1:31 PM #

    The first team OL is a concern – The back-up OL is terrifying.

  25. nycfan 08/28/2007 at 11:53 AM #

    Looks to me like the Pack should all but cruise to an 11-3 OOC record (better is certainly possible, but that is just giving you losses at MSU and @ Seton Hall and versus Nova — but I think 13-1 is doable). The problem is that, even giving you credit for the highest possible RPI team in your pre-season tournament, the average RPI (from end of last year) for that OOC schedule is 189.9 (191.8 if you toss out the highest and lowest potential opponents). So, I don’t think 8-8 in conference would make the Pack comfortable about a bid.

    That said, I think State is a top 4 ACC team this year that I expect will win at least nine and possibly up to 12 conference games. The one thing that gives me pause about predicting on the high end of that range is that the Pack only has 4 home games against the other top 7 teams (6 road games against the same), which could make it tough to get over the 10-win hump.

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