No Soup For K!

07-08 Basketball General NCS Basketball71

Yes, we’re a few days late commenting on this…but it’s the “slow season.” Anyway, SFN knew more than a few Duke fans who were almost excited to have ultra-soft Josh McRoberts bolt for the NBA. “Trade McRoberts for Patrick Patterson – I’ll take that any day” was the hopeful rallying cry.

Well, Mr. Patterson will join Billy Gillispie at Kentucky instead – an early sign that the reclusive Texan is indeed ready for primetime and national recruiting wars. Side note – remember SFN has a history of noting the accomplishments and potential of Gillispie.

Just as notable – Duke is back to recruiting rather than “selecting,” it seems. It’s not like the Devils are hurting for talent – by our count, they will have 6 or 7 McDonald’s All-Americans on next year’s roster. But really – does their 2007-08 roster scare you? For the second straight year, Duke looks light years behind UNC, with the potential to be in the middle of the pack in conference play. Before ABD fans get too excited, the middle of the ACC looks much weaker than in past years. Duke may very well use their overall talent to rack up 10, 11, or even 12 ACC wins – if conference foes aren’t able to exploit Duke’s numerous weaknesses:

– Poor rebounding (here is where Duke will miss McBob the most)

– Possibly poor interior defense (Duke has always played good defense, but who can reasonably be expected to fill this void?)

– Lack of a “go to guy” late in close games (this killed Duke in conference play and in March last year)

– No low-post scoring threat (Zubek? That’s a good one!)

– Extremely vulnerable to fast PGs (thanks to VCU for providing the blueprint for 2007-08 foes)

Now tell us, does that sound like a team that’s built for March? We certainly don’t think so. Yes, Duke has lots of shooters and will be very tough to beat when hot from the perimeter. State fans have played that game before, without any ACC titles or Final Fours to show for it.

We still caution against overly aggressive expectations for next season (2008-09 is another story), but SFN thinks it’s safe to say that the only roster demonstrably better than the Wolfpack’s is Roy’s bunch in Chapel Hill (probably pre-season #1). And we know that Sid’s boys won’t back down from that fight, either – and can hold their own. This is a hell of alot of fun, isn’t it?

Sidebar – we hope our sensitive brethren at Duke Basketball Report take the “Soup Nazi” reference well, and don’t fly into another hysterical snit.

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07-08 Basketball General NCS Basketball

71 Responses to No Soup For K!

  1. BJD95 05/22/2007 at 9:16 AM #

    I agree strongly with BOTH noah and Lunatic Fringe. I agree that Smith is more likely to be a 5-10 mpg player as a frosh, and not score that much. But he’ll also be capable of OCCASIONALLY providing more if fouls/injury/illness strike – as they ALWAYS do. To me, that kind of player is crucial to the 2007-08 team’s success.

    Also strongly agree that I much prefer to utilize Horner on the wing. I would rather that he work on his lateral quickness so that he can be a possibly exceptional wing player, rather than bulk up to be an adequate low-post reserve.

  2. TNCSU 05/22/2007 at 9:24 AM #

    Crucial: of extreme importance; vital to the resolution of a crisis

    I would concur that Smith would be “crucial” if BC or Ben were not coming back, and/or if we didn’t have Hickson coming in. But, with those other players next year, I think he’s a great addition and recruit, but not crucial for next year. Ben is crucial, BC is crucial, Hickson “may” be considered crucial, but IMO, Smith is not. Again, my opinion is like Noah’s, I think he will contribute and “eventually grow into a steady, solid player…but I don’t think anyone really thinks he’s going to be a double-figure scoring and/or rebounding guy immediately.”

    As far as a comparison type of player, how about Chucky Brown?? Chucky contributed his Freshman year, but not greatly — I don’t think he blossomed until his Junior/Senior years. Again, I’m not sure, but I think Chucky was a top 50 player out of H.S. also.

  3. TNCSU 05/22/2007 at 9:29 AM #

    PapaJohn, I agree that Smith was probably able to dominate smaller guys in High School, and also to dominate while not giving 110%. A few of the earlier scouting reports mentioned that he was a great talent, but seemed to disappear at times, and not play “all out.” That will have to change with the better college competition. As you can imagine with Coach Lowe and Staff, I think his defensive play will be what gets him playing time as a Frosh — play good “D”– get in the game, loaf on “D” — ride the pine.

  4. Rick 05/22/2007 at 9:37 AM #

    I saw him play.
    He is very athletic, fast, strong ang can jump.
    He seemed to take time off. He relied on his athletic ability to score.
    He also had a knack for the ball.

    His team was poorly coached and I would expect with better coaching for him to be a very good player.

  5. BJD95 05/22/2007 at 10:40 AM #

    He’s also crucial moving forward – what if Hickson and/or Costner goes pro after this season? That’s an extremely realistic possibility. We would have to take on a less experienced, lower-rated player to try to fill Smith’s slot.

  6. TNCSU 05/22/2007 at 10:46 AM #

    I concur that he’ll be crucial in the coming years — he’s a great player. I hope he’s wearing Wolfpack Red next year!

  7. lush 05/22/2007 at 12:08 PM #

    red,

    he said it at the caravan in raleigh a couple weeks ago

  8. noah 05/22/2007 at 12:47 PM #

    I’ve never seen him play, but the one person I talked to who saw him early this year compared him to Lorenzo Charles at the same age. This was someone who did see Charles when he was in high school, fwiw.

  9. redfred2 05/22/2007 at 1:38 PM #

    Lush, PapaJohn,

    That news about Degand is MUSIC to my ears.

    I say with regards to Smith, if there are question marks they are very much in the backcourt. Degand, hopefully he’s a speed merchant with some ability to lead and distribute the ball?!!! Marques Johnson is a 6’5″ pg/sg, and a total unknown?!!! He may be a big surprise, but who knows? Javi Gonzalez, good reports thus far, but then again, who knows what to expect from a true freshman? Also, I hope I am pleasantly surprised, but I have seen nothing to convince me that Corey Fells will step up and play hard enough to live up to his potential or be anywhere close to real consistent factor. If we can pound it inside even harder than last season, considering the additions of Hickson and Smith, rebound with second and third chances, then we may be OK without having to depend too heavily on the 2 guard for consistent scoring. There was a good interior presence last season and Fells still decided to sit out, disappearing for long periods of time for the most part, without really taking charge or forcing the issue. It would be great to see him take over, but don’t know if he will change that much no matter who is coaching.

    With the addition of Smith, hopefully there is enough depth to rotate players underneath and possibly compensate for the unknowns we’ll be facing, at least early on, from the 1 and 2 positions.

  10. lush 05/22/2007 at 1:53 PM #

    red,

    i dont think that courtney will need to force the issue of scoring either. he should have plenty of oppurtunities to stroke the three, but i dont think we will need him to try and create on his own. fast breaks sure, we will need some good finishes. but for the most part i think we will work it inside to ben, brandon, and jj, let them make a move or kick it back out for an open jumper. fells, grant, degand, horner, johnson, and fergie all need to work on their jumpers to take advantage of double teams. if the perimeter guys can be counted on to nail the open j there will be little to no double teams, and no double teams means easy baskets for our big guys.

    its one big awesome cycle!!!!!

  11. Lunatic Fringe 05/22/2007 at 2:17 PM #

    The biggest question mark on this team is the point guard position, but you can counter-act that with quality frontline depth. The strength of the team and the real differentiator from other teams in the league is our frontcourt.

    In looking at it from an opposing coach’s perspective, the way to beat NCSU last season was to attack the lack of depth through pace of the game or foul trouble. The tactic typically affected our big men the most since it required them to be less aggressive (avoid fouls) and wore them down (harder to maintain consistent effort for that many minutes a game for each game).

    The addition of Hickson on the frontline will make that option less realistic for opposing coaches, but adding a 4th guy like Smith would almost eliminate that option completely. I see additional depth as crucial, because it means that Mac and Costner can be more aggressive and thus more effective.

    The more effective our frontline is this season than the less reliant we will be on the incoming PG (or PGs). There would be less pressure for the PG to be a “playmaker” and they could simply be more of a “facilitator” (aka Justin Gainey).

  12. redfred2 05/22/2007 at 2:48 PM #

    I agree totally, with these interior additions, even while standing around again, Fells SHOULD have a much better opportunity to be an outside scoring threat this upcoming season. Although you cannot deny that he also had a very legitimate opportunity to do so last season and was no where to be found alot of the time.

    We need someone to handle and get the ball across the timeline, then see it either in the basket or bouncing around up on the boards, where the NOW selection of the 5+ big guys can be much more aggressive rebounding than last season, and then putting it back in the basket from inside the paint. Rebounding, if driven home hard and emphasized more, should be a big positive this season. We should have the ability to throw out a very large five player lineup out onto the court at any time.

  13. BJD95 05/22/2007 at 3:18 PM #

    BJD’s dream “big” lineup:

    PG: Degand
    SG: Horner
    SF: Costner
    PF: McCauley
    C: Hickson

    I’m not saying you could do this for more than a handful of minutes, and we’d have to play a zone or box and one (think Degand would be an excellent ‘one’ in such an alignment) on defense…but imagine the matchup nightmares for the opposition when we have the ball.

  14. PapaJohn 05/22/2007 at 3:47 PM #

    It’s going to be great. The offense should be very simple, basic basketball – but highly effective.

    Option 1 – Interior pass for the high percentage shot (JJ, BC, Big Ben, Big Lew, Smith)
    Option 2 – Cutters or Short Jumpers (BC, GG, DH, CF..)
    Option 3 – Outside shot (CF, DH, or our PG comittee)

    I can’t wait.

  15. lush 05/22/2007 at 4:16 PM #

    bjd,

    why would you not have grant in for horner???

  16. vtpackfan 05/22/2007 at 4:19 PM #

    The problem with your “big” line up is that it ask’s Degand to operate almost exclusively in the half court, something that may be working against his strengths. Now, to be fair we won’t know for sure what kind of player he is until the season starts, but based on comments Coach Lowe has made it would seem counter productive to place these guys around him.

    Hickson and McAuley should be great finishers in the open court for us, but we need our wings to keep up with Degand and provide lanes for the big men.

  17. lush 05/22/2007 at 4:32 PM #

    ^then let grant or marques johnson run the point

  18. Lunatic Fringe 05/22/2007 at 5:31 PM #

    Random note: You really have to like how this blog entry has developed over the last couple days. It’s almost like we are excited about basketball…;)

  19. BJD95 05/22/2007 at 5:35 PM #

    Horner is what makes it the biggest lineup. He’s also more of a perimeter threat than Grant, which could unclog the lane a bit. Degand should be able to operate in half court, just doesn’t shoot well. I envision lots of posting up with that rotation.

  20. redfred2 05/22/2007 at 9:11 PM #

    I was thinking BIG lineup with 6’5″ Johnson or even 6’6″ Grant at the point, and 6’4″ Fells or Johnson again at the 2 spot, then the “interchangeables” of Costner, McCauley, Hickson, Horner, Smith and maybe even big Lewandowski in there in spots. That is rebounding stength with fouls to give.

    THEN, if Degand really has some of that blinding speed and quickness that was referred to earlier, I’d have to say it’s ALL looking pretty damn good!!!

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