2007 Basketball Recruiting Rankings & Review

Basketball recruiting for this year’s class is complete and first year Head Coach, Sidney Lowe has an awful lot of which to be proud!! Coach Lowe made the best of his opportunity to make a big impact as early as he could last summer.

After inheriting a program that was in such disarray that Lee Fowler found it necessary to sign the new coach to an (uncustomary) SIX YEAR deal last year, Sidney bested expectations on the court during his first season and has continued his momentum off the court in recruiting.

(Sidebar: After six years of listening to “Coach” Fowler extol the strength of NC State’s program under Herb Sendek, I never understood the ‘logic’ and lack of consistency that the program was in such bad shape that Fowler needed to go outside of his box and give Lowe an extra year on his first contract. Don’t get me wrong, I am not complaining about the maneuver as it relates to Sidney – just flabbergasted at the hypocrisy of Fowler’s actions when measured against his words).

This year’s recruiting class started coming together when Johnny Thomas committed to the Wolfpack in early June of last year. The class kept picking up steam and then picked up momentum from there.

If you do not include point guard Farnold Degand or combo guard Marques Johnson who is transferring from Tennessee, the Wolfpack signed four players in this year’s class.

* JJ Hickson, C/PF, Scout – 5-star, #13 rank; Rivals – 5-star, #10 rank
* Tracy Smith, F, Scout – 4-star, #70 rank; Rivals – 4-star, #46 rank
* Javi Gonzalez, PG, Scout – 3-star, Top 150 rank; Rivals – 3-star, Top 150 rank
* Johnny Thomas, SF, Scout – 3-star, Top 150 rank; Rivals – 3-star, Top 150 rank

Not including the transfers, Coach Lowe’s first recruiting haul was ranked:

* 16th in the country CollegeHoopsUpdate.com. (Link to rankings)
* 16th by Scout.com (Link to rankings )
* 18th by Rivals.com (Link to rankings) (We particularly liked the Rivals article because of its format and easy access to past recruiting rankings.

The ACC Perspective
As always, the first place to turn for broad and deep analysis of the conference is Dave Glenn.

Glenn’s ACCSports.com has a detailed breakdown of both 2007 signees and a look ahead to 2008 recruits at this link.

The Fayetteville Observer highlighted the recruiting classes of the entire conference in this article that uses the Prepstars recruiting service for its basis.

Duke signed three of the top 20 basketball prospects in the Class of 2007, getting signatures from Kyle Singler, Taylor King and Nolan Smith in the fall. The only other top-20 player headed to the ACC is J.J. Hickson, who signed with N.C. State.

ACC schools are bringing in eight of the top 50 high school hoops players in the nation as ranked by prepstars.com. In addition to the three future Blue Devils, N.C. State and Florida State signed two apiece, while Georgia Tech got one.

Of the 43 high school players who signed with ACC schools, 20 are ranked in the top 100. One of those, however, Augustus Gilchrist, has said he will not attend Virginia Tech because of last month’s campus shootings.

None of Clemson’s three signees is rated in the top 100. All of the other ACC schools, with the exception of North Carolina, added at least one top-100 prospect.

Carolina did not sign anybody. In fact, the Tar Heels did not recruit anyone in the 2007 class after making the nation’s No. 1 haul last year. UNC’s 2006 group included six of the top 100 high school players.

Virginia Tech has the largest 2007 ACC class with six signees. Maryland has five.

The rankings are summarized below:

(1) Duke
(2) Georgia Tech
(3) N.C. State
(4) Florida State
(5) Virginia Tech
(6) Wake Forest
(7) Maryland
(8) Virginia
(9) Boston College
(10) Miami
(11) Clemson
(12) North Carolina

Related, Dave Sez has done a nice analysis on the talent entering the ACC this year.

NC State’s Future
We’ve been keeping a running list of the Wolfpack’s projected roster for the past year as we have been following recruiting. With the news that Tracy Smith has not only signed but is projected to academically qualify to play next season (and should be enrolling at State this summer), then it becomes more clear that someone on NC State’s current roster will not be returning to the program next season.

Early rumblings from Raleigh seem to indicate that Bartosz Lewandowski may be having some health issues that will preclude him from participating in college athletics in the future. We do not know who true this is and will be looking into it further; we will exclude Lewandowski for the purposes of the following projections. Also unknown for the purposes of the following projections is the classification of Marques Johnson next year. Will he be a freshman or a sophomore?

Senior Class
(1) Gavin Grant (2G/3F)

Junior Class
(2) Courtney Fells (2G)
(3) Ben McCauley (4F/5C)

Sophomore Class
(4) Brandon Costner (3F/4F)
(5) Trevor Ferguson (2G/PG)
(6) Dennis Horner (3F)
(7) Farnold Degand (1PG)

Freshman Class
(8) Johnny Thomas (3F)
(9) JJ Hickson (5C/4F)
(10) Tracy Smith (4F/3F)
(11) Marques Johnson (2G) (eligible after first semester)
(12) Javi Gonzalez (1PG)

HS Senior Commits
(13) Julius Mays (PG)
(1) CJ Williams (3F/2G) [Gavin Grant’s old scholarship]

More from Dave Glenn:

N.C. State is in the unusual position, even at this early stage, of having filled all of its open roster spots with commitments from members of the Class of 2008. These high school juniors won’t be in college until the 2008-09 season, remember, but Lowe already has secured pledges from Indiana guard Julius Mays and in-state (Fayetteville Jack Britt) swingman C.J. Williams. Unless a current team member leaves the program prematurely, the Wolfpack has no more available scholarships for high school juniors.

Given the nature (transfers, early NBA entries, etc.) of modern college basketball, of course, the Wolfpack is continuing to stay in contact with a variety of 2008 prospects, even without an open scholarship.

Updated – July 30, 2007
Link to WS Journal

There are four incoming freshmen to go with two players who transferred in last year and will be eligible in the coming season. The four freshmen alone – center J.J. Hickson, forwards Tracy Smith and Johnny Thomas, and guard Javier Gonzalez – gave State the No. 14 class in the nation, according to PrepStars, and the No. 2 class in the ACC behind Duke. Scout.com rated the class No. 17 in the nation and No. 2 in the ACC.

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263 Responses to 2007 Basketball Recruiting Rankings & Review

  1. Rick 06/07/2007 at 12:47 PM #

    “I guess that didn’t hold true when the previous staff made PT decisions. Heard too many: “Why didn’t _ play more? What an idiot to sit __.”

    Two points
    1) You did not see me doing that but you could care less about that you just want to through dirt
    2) The key word is previous. The previous staff had a history of bad decisions.

  2. Rick 06/07/2007 at 12:52 PM #

    “No, but in my opinion he’s a better option as a starter, and Gavin fits better as an energy guy off the bench.”

    “Look, I can’t know for certain who is the better option.”

    Sounds like you are very certain. You know more than the coaches staff. Those be some powerful statistics.

  3. CedarGroveWolf 06/07/2007 at 12:55 PM #

    “Gavin had a worse A/T ratio when he stopped playing point guard”

    tha’s because he went to being the finisher, not the disher. You gave his total number of TOs which included him at PG. Put Horner there & his TOs would be up there too.
    Grant can create his own shot & cuts much better than DH.
    It does matter if he’s quicker & a better athlete on D. Horner has no shot of guarding a 3, Grant can.
    The team does need spotup shooters, but we already have Fells & BC.
    No other player can bring to the table the total package at the 3 but Grant.

  4. CedarGroveWolf 06/07/2007 at 1:27 PM #

    “You did not see me doing that but you could care less about that you just want to through dirt”

    no, just found it amusing.

  5. lush 06/07/2007 at 1:57 PM #

    “I’ve seen very little improvement in Gavin over the last 3 years.”

    Is this based on your statistics also? Can you please give us an analysis to compare Grant year by year? I would love to see the difference between his first two years and last year. Surley you can find some evidence to justify a statement like that. ^

  6. xphoenix87 06/07/2007 at 4:22 PM #

    Rick – At what point does “in my opinion he’s a better option as a starter” become “I know more than the coaching staff”. You seem to be missing the fact that I’m looking forward to next year and not at all critisizing the staff for who started last year. We don’t know who is going to start next year and we don’t know how the players are going to improve in the offseason. I’m making an educated guess.

    “No, these are your opinions.

    Here are some actual facts
    – He was the second leading scorer on the team
    – He was third in FG% behind Horner and McCauley
    – He had almost as many assists as turnovers
    – He lead the team in minutes played at almost 37 minutes a game.
    – And he had way too many turnovers”

    “Too bad they did not have the statistical evidence that xpheonix has. What were they thinking?”

    “Those be some powerful statistics.”

    You either get to ask for statistics or you get to ridicule me for them, you can’t have it both ways. You wanted “actual facts” and I gave them to you.

    -Cedar

    “put Horner @ PG & see how many TOs he has.”

    “tha’s because he went to being the finisher, not the disher.”

    Your first statement implies that Gavin commited all those turnovers because he was playing PG. I showed you that he was just as bad after he switched back to the wing. Now you’re saying that it’s because he was on the wing that he’s got more turnovers than assists.

    “Grant can create his own shot & cuts much better than DH.”

    Agreed

    “It does matter if he’s quicker & a better athlete on D. Horner has no shot of guarding a 3, Grant can.”

    Apparently Dennis Horner is completely unable to guard opposing players then, since he’s not big enough to guard 4s and if he’s not quick enough to guard 3s then he’s definitely not quick enough to guard 2s. That’s great, except that Horner showed last year that he’s a solid defensive player (again, I can’t prove this because defensive statistics suck and I have no video, so we’re arguing over what we remember seeing). I’ll admit that Gavin has the potential to be a better defender because he’s the better athlete, but potential doesn’t mean a thing if it isn’t ever realized. I’ll also remind you that Engin Atsur was an excellent defensive player for 3 years (before he got hurt) without being an exceptional athlete.

    “The team does need spotup shooters, but we already have Fells & BC”

    Fells has been a streaky shooter to this point in his career. That’s fine on the days that he’s on, but he wasn’t as consistent a shooter as Horner last year (45% to 33%, granted Fells shot a lot more of them). BC is a great shooter, though it doesn’t help if he happens to be the one posting up at the time.

    “No other player can bring to the table the total package at the 3 but Grant.”

    Gee, and I thought “the total package” included silly things like shooting and playing defense. I’ll admit that Gavin is the only consistent slashing threat on the team, but I don’t think that outweighs his many other faults.

    “Is this based on your statistics also? Can you please give us an analysis to compare Grant year by year? I would love to see the difference between his first two years and last year. Surley you can find some evidence to justify a statement like that. ^”

    How bout this, I’ll bring up some statistics if you all don’t knock on me for using them.

    I didn’t actually have any statistics for this when I wrote it, it was just based on my observations, but I did some digging on your request.

    Ok, so I took Gavin and measured him against 2 other athletic ACC wing players entering their senior season, Demarcus Nelson (who hasn’t progressed like many Duke fans would’ve hoped) and Deron Washington. I looked at the jump between SO and JR years, and I did the comparison on a per-minute basis, because it’s the only real way you can compare different guys’ progress through multiple seasons. I didn’t compare STLs and BLKs because they were insignificantly low averages.

    Here’s Gavin’s stats.

    *PM = Points/Rebounds/Assists Per Minute

    SO – .36 PPM .21 RPM .1 APM 1.06 A/T 45.2% FG 74.6% FT 20% 3PT
    JR – .4 PPM .14 RPM .1 APM .91 A/T 47.3% FG 74.2% FT 31.5% 3PT

    So he improved his scoring and his shooting percentages (which might be an indicator that he’ll develop a better perimeter shot next year and prove me wrong), but his rebounding dropped and his A/T ratio also dropped. It’s hard to make anything out of this with nothing to compare it to though, so here’s Nelson’s stats.

    SO .33 PPM .16 RPM .06 APM .69 A/T 45.2% FG 64.9% FT 4.1% 3PT
    JR .44 PPM .17 RPM .06 APM .8 A/T 47.8% FG 59.3% FT 36.4% 3PT

    So, we see his scoring shot up a lot more than Gavin’s did, and his A/T ratio went up. At the same time, his shooting percentages went down. His improvement when compared with Gavin is probably about on par, with both gaining some and losing some in various categories. Seeing as Nelson hasn’t exactly lived up to Duke fans’ expectations, this could be a bad sign for Gavin, but we’ll move on and look at Washington.

    SO .33 PPM .16 RPM .03 APM .66 A/T 49.2% FG 57% FT 26.9% 3PT
    JR .43 PPM .19 RPM .05 APM .94 A/T 50.3% FG 57.8% FT 30.8% 3PT

    Washington either improved or held steady in every category, and made huge jumps in PPM and A/T ratio. Clearly neither Gavin nor Nelson can come close to matching that.

    Now, does this mean that Washington was a really improved player, or that Grant and Nelson weren’t very improved? I can’t say for certain, and of course I’m biased to taint the statistics to prove my point, but make of these what you will. I will tell you that according to KenPom.com, Gavin was the only one of those 3 who had his offensive rating drop between those two years (Gavin: -3.9, Nelson: +4.9, Washington: +7.4).

    BTW, as far as ORtg goes, McCauley had one of the highest one the team with few minutes last year before he made such a huge jump in performance when given PT this year. Doesn’t prove anything, but still.

    There, I think I covered everything.

  7. lush 06/07/2007 at 4:37 PM #

    what are the minutes per game soph v. jr.? i think that should be factored in.

    “Your first statement implies that Gavin commited all those turnovers because he was playing PG. I showed you that he was just as bad after he switched back to the wing. Now you’re saying that it’s because he was on the wing that he’s got more turnovers than assists. ”

    since you only measure with ratios, i think he meant that gavin wasnt getting as many assists by playing from the wing instead of the point, therefore the ratio would drop

  8. CedarGroveWolf 06/07/2007 at 4:45 PM #

    “Your first statement implies that Gavin commited all those turnovers because he was playing PG. I showed you that he was just as bad after he switched back to the wing.”

    No, I pointed out that the overall number of TOs is high because he played so much point, not his A/TO ratio. His ratio might have gotten worse, but I doubt his actual TOs/game went up. I’d think his assists just went down due to him looking to score instead of passing.

    “Apparently Dennis Horner is completely unable to guard opposing players then, since he’s not big enough to guard 4s”

    he’s 6’8″, 220lbs. He can guard the 4’s. He’s very similar to Costner w/o the post-up game.

    “I’ll admit that Gavin is the only consistent slashing threat on the team, but I don’t think that outweighs his many other faults.”

    & I don’t think his TO’s outweigh all the other things he brings.

    Of course this is all moot since there is no way in heck Sid will start DH instead of GG.

  9. xphoenix87 06/07/2007 at 5:06 PM #

    “No, I pointed out that the overall number of TOs is high because he played so much point, not his A/TO ratio. His ratio might have gotten worse, but I doubt his actual TOs/game went up. I’d think his assists just went down due to him looking to score instead of passing.”

    Probably true, but that doesn’t really help your point that Gavin is going to help you break a press better. It just means that he had less opportunity to be careless with the ball once Engin got back.

    “he’s 6′8″, 220lbs. He can guard the 4’s. He’s very similar to Costner w/o the post-up game.”

    Horner is listed at 6’7″, 200lbs on both ESPN.com and gopack.com, so yeah, I’m sure he could guard 4s against UNC while giving up 2-3 inches and 30-45lbs to Hansbrough, Stephenson and Thompson. That would go over real well.

  10. CedarGroveWolf 06/07/2007 at 5:48 PM #

    When did the new ’07-’08 roster go up on GoPack? Must have just happened. I could have sworn Horner used to be listed as 215 or 220. Maybe he lost weight to improve quickness?

  11. CedarGroveWolf 06/07/2007 at 5:50 PM #

    BTW, see where B-rack went to the Yankees, #30 pick.

  12. redfred2 06/08/2007 at 4:41 PM #

    I think this whole discussion is probably moot. Gavin Grant should not be the only player who really wants the ball anymore. Not saying BC and BM didn’t ask for the ball down low, but when things weren’t clicking and nothing was happening with the offense and especially during Atsur’s absence, it always seemed like the ball ended up in Gavin’s hands, and with everyone else just standing there waiting for him to do something.

    This is a whole different roster, no one is assured of PT anymore. That should light some fires and make a few players become more assertive. Either that, or some experienced players should be riding the pine.

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