I may have to update my list of Data Analysis Mistakes to include the nuances of summer football speculation. Let’s review some “notable predictions†from the last few off-seasons:
– The 2003 defense was going to be just fine, even though 6 or 7 defensive linemen were graduating. The top-10 recruiting class was going to make up for the lack of experience with talent.
– The 2004 offense was going to be just fine after Rivers left because all State needed was someone to “manage†the offense. There was enough talent on offense that State didn’t need the QB to win the game.
– The 2005 offense was going to be just fine because Jay Davis had over 2000 yards passing in 2004 and was going to be much improved.
– The 2006 offense was going to be just fine because State had a 6-1 record after Marcus Stone became the starting QB.
I’m not going to waste the time/space to point out just how horribly (and predictably) wrong each one of these “conclusions†was. I just wanted to remind everyone of the recent past as a prelude to dissecting this year’s preferred “analysisâ€. Namely, State is going to do much better this year because TOB is going to correct the horrible problem with penalties that plagued Amato’s undisciplined players.
There is a slight twist to this off-season’s mindless chatter…the penalty/discipline problem is being parroted by media types from all over the southeast and not just repeated endlessly on the message boards. I attribute the media attention to two different types of sports writers:
– Those writers that don’t want to give up their running battle with Amato. They now have an opportunity to get in some shots while Amato is gone and won’t be able to get any jabs back at them. (Thanks to streaming media, we’ve gotten to hear some of Amato’s shots, even if they didn’t end up in print.)
– Those writers that are either too stupid or too lazy to do their own work. These writers simply recycle anything catchy that they read somewhere else.
Let’s look this “Penalty/Discipline Problem†from several different angles.
1) I work with a guy that used to be a sports writer at a small paper in Florida and covered Florida State. During Amato’s first tenure at FSU, he was known as the disciplinarian. The players didn’t mind being called into Bowden’s or Andrew’s office…but they wanted no part of Amato.
Now I’ve read and heard similar versions of this story in other places. But since this story comes from someone I know, I give it a lot more credence even if it doesn’t mean anything special to you.
I guess that Amato just turned into a mindless softie once he became the head coach.
2) Thanks to RAWFS for finding this quote from TOB on spring practice:
I don’t want to comment on anything in the past. But I haven’t seen any real discipline issues since we’ve been here and on the field. I’m happy with these kids. They’re attentive. They’re listening. They want to do the right things and they’re working hard to do the right things.
I think that if “discipline†were a real problem, it would take longer than just spring practice to get it worked out.
3) Here’s what Terry Bowden had to say recently about penalties and the “problems†that they create:
How many times have you heard the saying that penalties will get you beat? …Of the top 10 teams in college football last season in least yards penalized, six of them had losing records…Incidentally, the national champion Florida Gators finished the season ranked 109th out of 119 schools in least yards penalized and only one team in the final top 10 made it into the top 35 least-penalized teams.
It looks like quite a few people need to work on their cause/effect relationships.
4) Lastly thanks to pointer from legacyman, here is how State and BC compared on penalties last year:
NC State
– 7 penalties per game
– 58 penalty yards per game
Boston College
– 6 penalties per game
– 44 penalty yards per game
No one is saying that penalties are not A problem, but can I have a show of hands of those people that really believe that State can make a dramatic improvement in the W/L record just by “improving†the penalty situation to match BC? (All those with hands raised, I have a unique business opportunity that I would like to talk to you about…)
So what was the real problem? It should come as no shock to any of our regular readers that I have prepared a table to show what really needs to be corrected:
|
NC State’s National Rank |
|||
|
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
Rushing |
68 |
83 |
79 |
|
Passing |
71 |
92 |
81 |
|
Total |
78 |
103 |
97 |
|
Scoring |
73 |
95 |
101 |
For the last three years, State has ranked in the bottom third of Division I in almost every offensive category. I don’t understand how any State fan that has watched the last three seasons can reach anything other than the most obvious conclusion…a woefully unproductive offense directly led to three mostly forgettable seasons.
The following list summarizes the most commonly blamed reasons for the offensive woes:
– The consistently worst QB play in Raleigh since the mid-80’s (ie before Erik Kramer).
– An offensive line that couldn’t provide protection for the QB or running room for the RBs.
– Offensive coordinators that weren’t qualified to handle play-calling duties for a Pee-Wee league. One OC had the imagination of a pumpkin and the other dreamed up hopelessly complex schemes that produced even worse results than the Pumpkin.
– Position coaches that couldn’t teach and develop the players they had. Or sometimes, the recruiting is blamed for not getting better players.
So what was the chief reason for the offensive woes?
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WHO CARES!!!!!!!!!
What are you going to do even if you could blame only one area or person? I really don’t understand the need to search for a witch to burn. From where I sit, there are plenty of reasons to place the blame on several different areas.
The bottom line is that the offense has stunk and needs major improvement before State fans can expect to see substantial improvement in the W/L column. Unfortunately, it’s not immediately obvious to me that just changing coaches will be enough to fix these problems by this fall.
There are certainly legitmate questions/concerns about several different areas of the team, but droning endlessly about penalties/discipline is essentially the same thing as arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
