What’s Left to Do?

06-07 Basketball General NCS Basketball27

So who needs what and why from the ACCT?

Virginia
I am very interested in seeing where UVa is seeded in the NCAAT this year. They have the weakest OOC schedule (and thus the lowest RPI ranking) among teams in the top-half of the ACC. They also played one of the easiest conference schedules. Finally, history shows that about 75% of the teams are seeded within one position of what you would calculate based solely on RPI.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that in 2004 State was seeded higher than expected even with a record-setting, second-half collapse in the ACCT. Now we’ll get another data point on how much a regular season finish means to the Selection Committee.

Regardless of how well (or poorly) UVa does in the ACCT, I expect Hoos fans and the VA mass-media to be disappointed in their seeding for the NCAAT.

Virginia Tech & Boston College
Same story for both teams…same conference record and RPI (30 & 31). Both teams are getting uncomfortably close to the dreaded 8/9 seeds.

UNC
It looks like UNC is trying to blow their #1 seed in spite of their impressive RPI ranking of #3. I don’t think that they have looked like a #1 seed over the last several weeks, but then I’m not the most impartial observer either. Their ranking will obviously depend on their tournament performance and that of the other contenders. An ACCT championship would most likely secure a #1 seed. Anything less and it will depend on how the other conference tournaments shake out.

Maryland
Well the Twerps broke an ugly trend from the last several years and are playing for NCAAT seeding instead of an at-large bid. With their SOS, RPI ranking, and strong finish, they clearly have a shot a good seed….maybe as high as #3 with a good showing in the ACCT?

Duke
This will be another interesting seeding decision. Their RPI rank (#14 in the nation) conflicts with their #6 conference finish (tied for 6th to be completely accurate).

NOTE – There is virtually no doubt that UMD and Duke will both be seeded above teams that finished with a higher conference rank. It will be interesting to see just how many teams they pass by. You can also expect to see scathing commentaries from the local media associated with the teams that get bypassed.

Georgia Tech
I really can’t imagine GT getting passed over regardless of how they do in the ACCT. One of the things that I missed until recently is that GT is 7-2 since Feb 1. Their seeding would dramatically improve with two ACCT wins and a chance to move above an 8/9 seed.

BUBBLE-LAND
And now we visit the dreaded bubble with FSU versus Clemson on Thursday. If either team can beat UNC on Friday…then they are in. Anything less and I expect both to go to the NIT.

Note that I am not saying:
– That FSU/Clemson deserve to go to the NIT.
– That 10 or so mid-major teams are better than either team.
– Anything about the teams at all.

I’m just saying that history shows that since 1998, teams with losing conference records have to do something extraordinary to get an at-large bid to the NCAAT. The Selection Committee clearly has made the decision that they would rather have mid-majors near the top of their conference than marginal teams in a power conference. I am not saying that it is right or wrong…it merely is what it is.

State got that big ACCT win three times over the last five years. Let’s see if FSU or Clemson can step up and get one this year.

My Stolen Quote for the Week:
Nitwit stoopidity multiplies on the Internet faster than ants at a picnic.
BobLee

No context is required for this quote…it is true regardless of the subject matter at hand.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

06-07 Basketball General NCS Basketball

27 Responses to What’s Left to Do?

  1. StateFans 03/06/2007 at 1:47 PM #

    I think that the winner of FSU/Clemson has a legitimate shot to make the NCAA Tournament. Admission to the dance will be determined by how many bubble spots ultimately exist.

    I agree….a win on Friday for either of these teams will guarantee a spot.

  2. Dan 03/06/2007 at 2:16 PM #

    Clemson currently has 21 wins and an RPI of 36.

    No team from a BCS conference has been left out of the 64-65 team field will those numbers that I can find. Ever. (Can someone verify that? All stats I have found say it to be true) 20 wins plus top 40 RPI has been a sure lock in the past. Leaving them out would be unprecedented.

    If Clemson wins that game, the NCAAT will come calling. Even if Clemson doesnt win that game, it will be unprecedented to leave them out.

    With those two numbers in mind (20 wins plus top 40 RPI) it sure looks like the ACC gets 8 teams in and a huge expansion loving paycheck. Looks like expansion was good this year.

  3. RickJ 03/06/2007 at 2:16 PM #

    VaWolf82 – I love these entries – Clemson’s RPI is currently 36. If they beat FSU and lose to UNC on a neutral court, how much could their RPI move from 36? I’m pretty sure I remember an earlier entry of yours that showed that no BCS conference team has ever been excluded from the tourney with an RPI under 40. It would certainly be Clemson’s luck to be the first.

  4. WTNY 03/06/2007 at 2:18 PM #

    VaWolf82 : Any whiff of what seed UVA fans/admin expect? Any projection of what seed, based on your research, they are looking at today?

  5. CarnifeX 03/06/2007 at 2:19 PM #

    Does the pack have to win it all (ACCT) to get to the NCAAT? or can we get there with a loss on Sunday?

  6. Dan 03/06/2007 at 2:26 PM #

    A quick check through kenpom shows that in the last 7 years every ACC teams with 20 regular season wins made the dance. Every one.

    Clemson could be the first not too. Looking at their team, I dont know if they deserve it based on what they’ve done. Im just giving the facts. I’m just saying it would be a rare feat for them to be left out. I think they are in even if they lose to FSU.

    I think GT is in already as well. They beat Memphis who has an outside chance at a #1 seed, plus 20 wins, plus top 40 RPI.

    And I totally agree with VaWolf’s comments on UVa’s seed. It will be low compared to Duke and Maryland. That’s what happens when you go to Puerto Rico and tank.

  7. CarnifeX 03/06/2007 at 2:31 PM #

    The thing thats holding Clemson back is the “last 10 games” statistic. 3-7 does not help.

  8. packbackr04 03/06/2007 at 2:33 PM #

    carnife….^ i would think we need to win it all to get the automatic bid

  9. packbackr04 03/06/2007 at 2:47 PM #

    i know this is probably out of place and the authors of this site have given him props before, but everyone needs to go check out section six.. that guy is always on point. he has some hilarious awards on his site today…. plus, all the simpsons screen shots and quotes dont hurt either.

    “back in my day, we called sauerkraut… liberty cabbage!! The year was nineteen-ought-six, and the president was the divine Sandra Bernhardt”

  10. choppack1 03/06/2007 at 2:47 PM #

    I think the loser of the Clemson-FSU game is headed for the NIT.

    Can you imagine having to battle VaTech in the second round if you are a #1 seed? Holy Cow!

    BC – They are looking at anywhere from 7 to 10 seed right now. Their collapse is very similar to ours last year. It’s a good thing that either FSU or Clemson must lose, otherwise, w/ their pisspour performance in the second half of the year, I could see them staying home.

    UNC – a win in the tourney gets them a No. 1.

    Duke – A strong tourney showing will get them a decent seed. Their best wins are OOC – beating Georgetown and the Zags.

    UVa – The opposite of Duke. If you took UVa’s in conference performance and took Duke’s OOC performance, you’ve got a 1 or 2 seed. You don’t, I’m thinking UVa is anywhere from a 3 (with a conference title) to a 6 – 1st round loss.

    GaTech – Same category as Tech – can you imagine facing this squad in the 2nd round if you are a top team?

  11. TNCSU 03/06/2007 at 4:21 PM #

    ^^^Does the pack have to win it all (ACCT) to get to the NCAAT? or can we get there with a loss on Sunday?

    I would say, NO, we would have to win it all to get an NCAAT bid — just getting to the final game wouldn’t do it. Hell, we have to win at least one to go to the NIT IMO. If we don’t beat Duke, I don’t think we will have any post-season. What does everyone else think??

  12. Wulfpack 03/06/2007 at 4:33 PM #

    No question we have to win the whole thing to get a bid. If we fall to Duke, I say there’s about a 25% of making the NIT. What also must be taken into consideration regarding our postseason aspirations is how GT, FSU and Clemson fare. We need to root for two to get in. That would give us a better shot at a NIT bid. Remember, only 32 teams make the NIT. As an example to highlight my point, there are about 25 teams in the ACC, Big 10, Big East, Big 12, SEC and PAC 10 in the running for an NIT bid as it stands today. There are countless mid majors deserving.

    Also keep in mind that Wake is right there knocking at the door as well. Same conference record as us, but 14-15 overall. If the Deacs can muster 2 ACC tourney wins, they’ll get looked at as well.

  13. CaptainCraptacular 03/06/2007 at 4:48 PM #

    The Dance card has Clemson currently well in and FSU currently well out. It is not 100% accurate but Clemson may get in regardless of what they do against FSU.

    Although I find it hard to believe. Clemson has no signature OOC victories and very little to hang their hat on in the ACC. Unlike FSU which at least has a name victory over high RPI Duke and a huge win over Florida.

  14. VaWolf82 03/06/2007 at 5:07 PM #

    A quick check through kenpom shows that in the last 7 years every ACC teams with 20 regular season wins made the dance.

    A closer look would also show that only two ACC teams with losing conference records have went to the NCAAT since 1998.
    – UMD won the ACCT in 2004
    – State beat #2 seed WF (without CP) in 2005

    I don’t think that “20 wins” means squat. What matters is who you beat, when, and where. How you are finishing the year also plays a big role and Clemson has absolutely stunk up the court since they left the RBC Center in Jan. That night they were 17-0. They have won a grand total of four games since then. (4-9 for completeness)

    When I wrote about the Dance Card last year, I noted that several teams that they predicted in and were not included had losing records over the last 10 games of the season. This is one area where I think that the Dance Card could be tweaked.

    Here’s an example from 2004 of a team with nearly every measurable that you could imagine for an at-large bid:
    RPI: 38
    Overall Record: 18-10
    Conf Record: 8-8
    Conf RPI Rank: 2 (SEC)
    Record vs Top 50: 6-6

    LSU didn’t receive an at-large bid after losing in the first round of the SEC tournament and finishing the season 1-6. The Dance Card predicted LSU in that year (though only two spots from the bubble bursting).

    If Clemson makes the NCAAT without beating UNC, I will be shocked.

  15. TNCSU 03/06/2007 at 5:12 PM #

    http://www.hoop-rap.com/news/newsview.php?getstory=968

    I know it’s off-topic, but here’s good story about Corchiani and Javi Gonzalez and the Miami connection.

    Also, I agree with above that I think FSU has more going for it than Clemson, but Clemson did just beat VT in Blacksburg, so I think a win by either will put them in — that’s 8 ACC teams in, IMO.

  16. VaWolf82 03/06/2007 at 5:23 PM #

    Any whiff of what seed UVA fans/admin expect? Any projection of what seed, based on your research, they are looking at today?

    Sorry, but no. My comment was based on human nature, not direct quotes from anyone at UVA or the media.

    My guess on UVa’s seed right now is about #7. The entry linked at the bottom tabulated four years worth of final RPI ranks versus NCAAT seeds. Over those four years, the average RPI rank of a #7 seed was 30 (with a range of 17-47). They are bound to get some leeway after their regular season conference performance….but that RPI is going to drag them down.

    Don’t forget last year’s data with BC and UNC. BC beat UNC in the semis and got a 4-seed with a RPI of 22. UNC got a 3-seed with a RPI of 12. This tells me that UVA won’t get anywhere near a 4-seed unless they win the ACCT.

    http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2006/01/31/rpi-and-ncaa-seeds/

  17. choppack1 03/06/2007 at 5:36 PM #

    McCauley wasn’t the McDAA -that was Costner.

    VaWolf – I don’t think UVa gets a 7 seed unless they go out in the first round of the tourney. If they make it to the semis or the finals, I think they get a 6 or higher. (If doing the seeds tomorrow, I think they get a 5).

  18. Dan 03/06/2007 at 5:46 PM #

    “I don’t think that “20 wins” means squat.”

    You are on shaky ground with that statement in regards to historical fact. Show me one ACC team in recent years with 20 wins that didnt make the tournament. I understand you dont “feel” they’ve earned it. I inclined to agree with you. But the facts are the facts.

    Now, that could change this year, but that would be without precedent. Add to that their top 40 RPI, and right now, they are in the dance. They beat FSU. They are in, Its not even questionable if you look at historical record.

  19. Lunatic Fringe 03/06/2007 at 6:21 PM #

    VAWolf…

    I think it would be kind of neat over the next week to keep a running tally of the teams who make the dance due to a championship, if teams in that conference would/should make it even without the championship, and what teams may get bids that would result in ACC teams not making it.

    For instance, would Creighton have made the dance without the championship? If not than that is an extra bid coming from that conference since the Salukis are a lock to be dancing.

  20. VaWolf82 03/06/2007 at 6:46 PM #

    For instance, would Creighton have made the dance without the championship?

    BJD95 is the big proponent of The Valley, so maybe we should let him give us a break down on this year’s teams. (sarcasm clearly intended)

    Missouri St is the interesting team to watch this year. Last year they set the record for the team with the highest RPI ranking (#21) to be left out of the NCAAT since expanding to 64/65 teams. Last year, they lost in the quarter-finals of the MVC tournament…..the four winners in the quarters all made the big Dance.

    This year, their RPI rank is #38, but they won in the quarters. Wouldn’t it be funny to see do “worse” this year and make the NCAAT?

  21. tvp 03/06/2007 at 7:19 PM #

    “If Clemson makes the NCAAT without beating UNC, I will be shocked.”

    Prepare to be shocked then. Clemson was undefeated out of conference. Granted, they didn’t play any heavyweights, but they beat some decent teams. If they beat FSU and lose to UNC, they will be comfortably within the “lock” range on the RPI. You are focusing on the conference record to the exclusion of the other numbers in their favor.

  22. VaWolf82 03/06/2007 at 7:46 PM #

    You are focusing on the conference record to the exclusion of the other numbers in their favor.

    I can’t believe that anyone would claim that I ignore RPI ranking…but there are obviously alot of people ignoring the example of LSU in 2004. We shall see soon enough.

    They beat FSU. They are in, Its not even questionable if you look at historical record.

    It obviously depends on what history you are concentrating on.

  23. VaWolf82 03/06/2007 at 8:10 PM #

    Here are 14 of Clemson’s 21 wins….ie their OOC schedule:

    (39) Old Dominion
    (62) Appalachian St.
    (64) Georgia
    (65) Mississippi St.
    (102) South Carolina
    (158) Arkansas St.
    (178) Minnesota
    (195) Furman
    (230) Georgia St.
    (243) Georgia Southern
    (247) Western Carolina
    (260) Monmouth
    (294) Wofford
    (330) Charleston Southern

    Aren’t you impressed? 😉

  24. tvp 03/06/2007 at 9:52 PM #

    ^Well, they didn’t lose any of those game. In fact, they’ve lost all of one game to a team not in the RPI top 40 (at Wake Forest). And their collapse has not been nearly as pronounced as LSU’s was in your example. If they beat FSU and lose to UNC, their RPI should be in the top 35…and I’d be very surprised if they were left out.

  25. Lunatic Fringe 03/06/2007 at 11:09 PM #

    ^tvp…still…An ACC team that was 17-0 and still on the bubble is absolutely mind boggling.

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