What Player Rotation Do You Want/Expect Next Year?

07-08 Basketball General NCS Basketball88

I’m done feeling sad/angry about the season being over. It’s time to look forward. Here’s what I envision for next year:

Starters: Javi/Degand (PG), Fells (SG), Costner (SF), McCauley (PF), Hickson (C)

First wave of reserves: Degand/Javi (PG), Horner (SG/SF), Grant (SF)

Second wave of reserves: Johnson (SG), Smith (SF/PF) or Thomas (SF)

Thoughts/Analysis:

– PG will be a true job battle. I ultimately expect the minutes to break down something like 25/15, and that Johnson will be the 3rd option. I have no idea which one will be better, short or long term. I do not expect to see Fells or Grant play PG except in an emergency.

– There will be a true rotation at the forward slots, with Grant (or possibly McCauley) essentially serving as the “sixth starter.” With 4 “starters” for 3 positions, that’s approximately 30 minutes per man, subject to adjustment for foul, health, and/or performance issues. Hickson will be the key to establishing a rebounding presence, and I don’t see any way he doesn’t start. Costner will be a legitimate conference POY candidate, and he will also start. McCauley might be better suited to bringing energy off the bench than Grant, if Grant as “sixth starter” doesn’t work out well.

– I am very hopeful that Horner has enough quickness to play at least a chunk of minutes at the 2. I think his handle is already good enough, and he is very smart with the basketball. Especially if Smith qualifies, this would be a much better opportunity for him than serving as the 5th or 6th forward. He could create hellish matchups as a 6’7″+ shooting guard. If this does pan out, then Fells had better work much harder and play much more consistently – or he will lose his starting slot.

– I alluded to it above – Smith’s qualifying is a major X factor. I think he could be an immediate presence on the glass, and really allow Sid to attack opposing frontcourts with waves of big, strong, skilled forwards. I would rather not have to count on Thomas fitting into the rotation right away – it would be better if he had to force himself into the mix with great play and practice work.

– From what I have been told, Johnson will be more of a 2 than a 1, although he could steal minutes at PG better than Fells or Grant. I could see him developing into a quasi-Ginyard role, where he is assigned to lock down the opponent’s best scoring guard.

– The best news – We will have at least a solid 8-man rotation. We could play as many as 11, if Smith qualifies, Johnson is in playing shape, and Thomas progresses quickly.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

07-08 Basketball General NCS Basketball

88 Responses to What Player Rotation Do You Want/Expect Next Year?

  1. BJD95 03/23/2007 at 12:22 AM #

    Just to clarify – I wasn’t slamming Grant by “demoting” him. I would rather he start than Fells, but not sure his handle is good enough (or his outside shot), and I’d rather him log “starter minutes” at forward. I fully expect Horner and Johnson to push Fells for minutes at the 2. He’s the one who needs to start consistently earning his minutes and not take them for granted.

    I’m not opposed to a rotation where 1 of Grant, Costner, McCauley, and Hickson comes in off the bench every 4th game.

  2. bTHEredterror 03/23/2007 at 2:58 AM #

    5-McCauley, he’s shown he can hadled big men and I like his energy to start a game right. Hickson will log significant minutes, 15-20.

    4-Costner, because he is our best player, and I doubt even this well-regarded class will change that fact. Horner gets 15 minutes, with Smith getting 5 some nights. It might be wise to plan on red shirting Smith just to give him a year to get acclimated, focus on grades.

    3-Grant with Horner and Costner seeing some time. Thomas for 5 or so a night. Gavin will likely be on the floor 30 minutes. He’s our senior, and hopefully he can overcome the pavlovian one on four fast break response he seems to have ingrained.

    2-Fells. With Johnson and Degand seeing playing time, occasionally Ferguson for three point threat.

    1-Degand because of his experience. Gonzalez will get 10-15 minutes early on, and Johnson will likely see some time here too. I think there will be occasions where two PG’s are on the floor at the same time, to enhance the press. Both guard spots could be fluid.

    Later in the year, Hickson will take over for MCCauley, who then becomes part of solid one two (maybe three) down low off the bench. Horner and McCauley providing instant high energy off the bench and a non stop bumrush to the paint. Which ever PG has shown his mettle the best in Sidney’s eyes will be starting in March. I’m betting Gonzalez and Degand end up on the floor together late game at tournament time next year.

  3. acc10k 03/23/2007 at 10:43 AM #

    ““Why worry so much about Costner guarding a smaller, quicker opposing 3, instead of looking at the flip side – how in the world would such an opposing player guard COSTNER?”

    Think about it this way, Costner trying to guard Grant or Fells. Not happening.”

    I gotta agree with the first sentiment, which I think gets back to the attitude of “take what we want, not what they want to give us” that everyone here loves. Talking about the difficulty of any 3-position trying to guard Gavin or Courtney points out the matchup problems we can cause people.
    Ignore Gavin’s bad decision-making that occurs way too often – how many guys in college bring his size and physical skills? Yeah, he causes a potential quickness problem for BC, because he causes a quickness problem for EVERY player big enough to keep him from posting up.
    Courtney: 1) He is 6’5″ – how often are we going to face big-time opponents where a guy like that is playing the 3? 2) He is, by all accounts, the most explosive player on what should be a top 20 team next year – almost no one has a forward who cover that physical skill set. But because he doesn’t have Gavin’s size, people will use a 2 to guard him (or we would use our 2 to guard someone like him.)

    People are not getting into the spirit of this and thinking about what kinds of problems we can cause other teams. You are forgetting that Ben was the best passer on the team this year – his presence on the court at the same time as BC and Hickson doesn’t just create matchup problems, he can make the passes that exploit them.
    Imagine a lineup with Gavin and Brandon as the wings. Cover Gavin with your 2 and Brandon with your 3 (as most teams would try) and Gavin posts up at will and Brandon’s man doesn’t have the strenth to hold him off inside and maybe not quickness to stay close to him out at the 3-point line. Try to swap and Gavin drives right by the 3 and Brandon doesn’t even notice that guard trying to stop him inside.
    Lets get really crazy, against a team without a pressure PG or when the opposing PG is on the bench, and put in a lineup of Grant-Horner-Costner-McCauley-Hickson. No one under 6’8″ on the floor! Wouldn’t want to try that too much, but it gives an idea of what opposing coaches might have to prepare for.
    It seems like there are enough options at PG (a couple of which were admittedly tried with limited success this year) that something at least acceptable will work itself out. The bigger concern I have is outside shooting – the response I have to a lot of the weirder lineup proposals is “throw a zone at it” and if no one can hit a three, that could work fairly well.

  4. ToddKeune 03/23/2007 at 2:18 PM #

    Point Guard. With the verbal commit from Javi, do we all assume we are giving up on Jai Lucas? I see the 4 returning starters keeping their spots with JJ and Smith playing alot, but what about point???? Jai would easily be the game one starter – end the debate of Javi or Degand!! What’s the word back in Raleigh? Still chasing Jai, or satisfied w Javi?

  5. vtpackfan 03/23/2007 at 4:03 PM #

    Jai Lucas is not coming to Raleigh and he was never close to considering it. While Sid was was reaching out to Lucan, seeing if he want to play for team that was his daddy’s arch nemesis, we got Mays for ’08, Johnson to transfer from UT, and Javi in ’07. All three (with maybe the exception of Mays) were follow up plans after the Chris Wright, Jai Lucas plans fell through.

    I like the depth at the position for next year. The experience factor is lacking, but with the coaching staff you have a lot of wisdom to help these young guys through any rocky starts. Each guy brings a different style to the game, both offensively and defensively. You have to to have a fearless streak inside to play PG, and above all you have to prove that your mentally tough enough to withstand all the pressure. With the three guys vying for playing time, plus Mays due to arrive in ’08, we will get to find out whose got what it takes.

  6. ToddKeune 03/23/2007 at 4:11 PM #

    What about thr future of center? I’ve only been seeing JJ listed as forward. Can he be the 5? We don’t seem to have a TRUE 5. Maybe haven’t for a while. There are three top JR prospects in NC alone. Any close to comming to State?

  7. stateguy08 03/23/2007 at 4:29 PM #

    Yeah I think Fells is out
    Grant at 2
    Costner 3
    Ben statys at 5
    JJ at 4
    and who the hell knows for 1, my guess is as good as the next guys. But if I have to say…Javi

  8. vtpackfan 03/23/2007 at 6:16 PM #

    “There are three top JR prospects in NC alone. Any close to comming to State?”

    Sat. in Cary there is a one day camp put on by Dave Telep and Chris Corciani. Exclusive NC prep, the top 100 chosen who are in high school as we speak. Mostly soph. and frosh., but the three Juniors you mentioned will attend (Baciu, Davila, and Walker).

  9. redfred2 03/23/2007 at 9:50 PM #

    Wasn’t Jai Lucas basically headed to Kentucky? How about now, how will Tubby’s departure affect that situation?

  10. ToddKeune 03/24/2007 at 2:12 AM #

    Lucas still hasn’t commotted to anybody. He said Tubby laeving hurts KY, but he is still looking at them, MD, OK and OK State.

  11. brickman 03/25/2007 at 7:55 PM #

    what we have coming back has me counting days like when PR was playing football . we should be top 20 .and top three in acc .could be one or two depends on who gose pro from tarholes and gt . the line up should not matter with the way we make teams play our kind of ball. the key is our defence on the other teams we play . we were not good in that part of the game . with better outside def. to stop faster gaurds going inside where our big guys can rebound instead of stoping the faster gaurds going inside.that is what we need to improve on . it should help ben out down low as far as rebounding just look at his off. rebounding best on team

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Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. StateFans Nation » Blog Archive » Dave Glenn Pencils Pack in at the 4 Slot for 2007-08 - 03/30/2007

    […] Lastly, to continue my crusade of sorts (and good-natured sparring with fellow SFN blogger Rick and several respected commenters), please note that Dave does have JJ Hickson starting… […]
  2. StateFans Nation » Blog Archive » Costner Corner - 07/21/2007

    […] In the article, Costner applauds Wolfpack recruit, Javi Gonzalez and provides a little insight into what we might see this season on the basketball court. Worth noting, our community has already weighed in on some of this with this great entry. “The new guys are going to help a lot,” he said. “I’ve played with them a lot this summer, and I think they’re going make a difference. [Point-guard recruit] Javi Gonzalez is the real thing. He’s definitely going to help.” Costner says his knee is back to 100 percent and that he’s counting the days until his next official practice session. “I wish it would be tomorrow,” he said. […]

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