I am no great shakes as a statistical analyst – I leave that to the esteemed VaWolf. On the cusp of tourney play, I wanted to throw out my gut calls for discussion.
1) North Carolina
Realistic Chance to Win? Absolutely. At this point, they have to be the odds-on favorite. They are clearly the most talented team, and their depth will help them survive the rigors of tournament play.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Virginia Tech. The Hokies swept the Heels, and seem to match up very well. Nobody was happier to see VT win the tiebreaker for the 3rd seed than UNC, meaning 2 other teams will have the chance to knock off VT before a hypothetical matchup in the finals. Georgia Tech also has the athleticism to run with UNC, but also would not be in UNC’s path until the final.
2) Virginia
Realistic Chance to Win? Maybe. They have excellent guard play, but their scoring options don’t run very deep. I could easily see the Cavs losing in the quarters, or getting to the finals (approximately equal likelihood).
Toughest Obstacle(s): Deep, athletic teams (particularly UNC, Maryland). Foul trouble could also snuff their hopes quickly. One also has to wonder whether there will be a hangover effect from gakking up the outright regular season crown at lowly Wake Forest.
3) Virginia Tech
Realistic Chance to Win? Yes. Like UVA, I could easily see the Hokies losing in the quarters, especially if Georgia Tech plays their best. Also like UVA, their starting backcourt is very strong, and they are extremely well-coached.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Any opponent with strong, aggressive perimeter defense. Georgia Tech and Maryland come to mind. Also have to worry about a hangover effect after 2 big losses in the last week of ACC play, including an inexplicable home loss to reeling Clemson.
4) Boston College
Realistic Chance to Win? Very slim. The Eagles have 2 great players in Jared Dudley and Tyrese Rice. Nobody else on their squad scares you, and their depth is very shallow for a grind like the ACC tournament. They benefit gratly from the first round bye.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Having to face the hottest team in the conference on Friday (Maryland), then the best (and deepest) team in the conference on Saturday (UNC). BC matches up especially poorly with UNC.
5) Maryland
Realistic Chance to Win? Absolutely. Maryland is the hottest team in the conference, and maybe the country. Despite losing at home to the Canes early in the season (when they were playing poorly), they shouldn’t have to break a sweat to win on Thursday. A Gary Williams-coached team with momentum is extremely dangerous in a tournament situation. Fear the turtle, indeed.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Overconfidence and half-court offense. Maryland is a deep, athletic team, but lacks a true “go to guy” in the half-court setting. A team that can match/surpass their size and athleticism (UNC, anyone?) could neutralize their strengths and force them to shoot very well to win. I’m not sure they can do that. The Terp players could also fall victim to believing their glowing press. Without their blue-collar work ethic, they are just an average team (as the first half of ACC play showed).
6) Georgia Tech
Realistic Chance to Win? Absolutely. Think of them as Maryland, with a more favorable draw. Georgia Tech is playing great basketball right now, and boasts the 2nd best PG in the league.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Their own inconsistency and coaching. Even during their fine second-half streak, they completely melted down late against UVA, and fell behind 17-2 to NC State at home. If they are not on, or Crittenden tires and/or gets into foul trouble, GT could get bounced at any time. Paul Hewitt also does not have a great ACCT track record (IIRC).
7) Duke
Realistic Chance to Win? No. The Blue Devils are too shallow and unathletic. Henderson-gate has been a stupid distraction, and Coach K handled it very poorly. They could conceivably make the semifinals, but I don’t see them getting farther than that.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Any team with athleticism and depth. Their path is littered with such foes, although they do match up decently with UVA. Additionally, they do not create any match-up difficulties against anybody, including opening round opponent NC State (which I peg as a 50/50 game).
8) Clemson
Realistic Chance to Win? No. Despite their mini-renaissance from the last week, I don’t see this team running off 4 in a row. Their defense has slipped, and their offense has always been suspect. Plus, their Friday opponent would be a rested and pissed-off UNC.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Lack of consistent offense, tough draw. They are probably favored to beat FSU, but it would take a near miracle to upset UNC and Maryland back-to-back. This team started out 17-0, but mostly on a cupcake-laden diet.
9) Florida State
Realistic Chance to Win? No. However, no team (even UNC) wants to face Al Thornton. His presence makes them a dangerous foe. I wouldn’t be completely shocked if they upset UNC.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Lack of scoring depth, tough draw. See Clemson above. Also, if you at least contain Thornton, the Noles will have trouble finding enough offense elsewhere. Hell, even if you don’t contain him, it’s a problem. Despite Thornton’s 45-point explosion, they needed overtime to beat lowly Miami in the regular season finale.
10) NC State
Realistic Chance to Win? No. Making the semifinals would be a great accomplishment, and certainly put the Pack on the right side of the NIT bubble.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Inconsistency and depth. NC State has a very solid starting five, but by Saturday, fatigue will set in. We also ave no idea which NC State team will show up – the roadkill version from the FSU and Miami debacles, or the great bunch that went a combined 3-1 against VT and UNC. My gut says that the Pack upsets UVA if it can get past Duke.
11) Wake Forest
Realistic Chance to Win? No chance in hell. Knocking off Georgia Tech (like they did NC State last year) would be their ceiling. A potential spoiler, and nothing more.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Offense, defense, and coaching. Pretty much everything comes into question here. After Visser, no Deacon was even seriously considered for any all-ACC honors. Skip Prosser has firmly established himself as a mediocre at best tournament coach.
12) Miami
Realistic Chance to Win? No chance in hell. The Hurricanes will take the short trip home late Thursday night.
Toughest Obstacle(s): Lack of talent, health, tough draw. Frank Haith lost pretty much his entire frontcourt, and is forced to play walk-ons. They also square off against the hottest team in the ACC right off the bat.
