Football Signing Day – State Talent

Football Recruiting General NCS Football73

It is signing day! So, why not run an in-depth piece on talent and recruiting (as a follow-up to this entry with some great links in it)

Whether it was reality or mis-perception, Chuck Amato had a reputation for preferring high school players from talent-rich states like Florida over those from North Carolina high schools. Ironically, the recruiting class that Amato was creating this season was almost exclusively NC-based. (If you are genuinely interested in more on this topic, this entry is a must read.) As Tom O’Brien heads into his (quasi) first recruiting class, then we thought it would be a good time to touch on the topic of talent again.

WRAL’s David Glenn recently blogged an interesting entry discussing the talent in the state of North Carolina High Schools that can be read by clicking here. The premise is summarized as:

Former East Carolina head coach Steve Logan, now the offensive coordinator at Boston College, recently said on his radio show (620 The Bull in Durham) that he would recommend Davis or O’Brien using all 25 scholarships in a given year on in-state prospects. Logan offered only anecdotal evidence to support the wisdom of such a decision, and that seems to be the case with everyone in the “North Carolina Talent Is Wonderful” camp. It’s easy to throw compliments, on a case-by-case basis, in every direction. It’s a lot more difficult to find hard evidence to support the broader claim.

Glenn goes on to reference some previous research that was done by the ACC Area Sports Journal regarding recruiting in the state.

Research by the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com repeatedly has shown that North Carolina has the worst “football demographics” of any state in the ACC region. The state’s average of about 60 Division I-A signees per year isn’t bad — that ranks among the top dozen in the nation — but the presence of five I-A programs in the state, along with numerous others within a reasonable driving distance, offers a significant complication. Georgia, in contrast, has two I-A teams and produces about 150 I-A signees per year. As Amato said, to the chagrin of many locals, there’s no denying that the simple math — I-A signees/I-A teams — isn’t pretty in North Carolina.

^This information is pretty captivating. We actually highlighted it and discussed it in this key entry back when the original entry was posted.

Here’s the breakdown of how many Division I-A signees the traditional ACC states produce on an annual basis, relative to the number of I-A programs in the state:

Georgia 75 (150 signees, two teams) prospects per school,

Florida 50 (350/7),
Virginia 25 (50/2),
Maryland 20 (40/2),
South Carolina 20 (40/2),
North Carolina 12 (60/5).

Here’s the breakdown when you limit the same numbers to only BCS-conference teams:
Florida 87 (350/4) per school,
Georgia 75 (150/2),
Maryland 40 (40/1),

Virginia 25 (50/2),

South Carolina 20 (40/2),
North Carolina 15 (60/4).

I don’t think that the issue is that there is not enough talent in North Carolina to succeed. The problem is that there are too many teams splitting the talent for our schools to succeed.

Of course those schools that ARE local need to do a better job of keeping talent in the state when we have the opportunity. Dave Glenn proves my point in this fantastic exercise of creating a hypothetical “All North Carolina” team

What if there was only one Division I-A football team in North Carolina, instead of five? What if its coaches were smart enough to identify, without exception, the best high school prospects in the state every single year? What if the team then was able to sign every one of those top targets, rather than losing many of them to out-of-state programs? What would that hypothetical All-North Carolina team look like, based on what actual North Carolina products did at schools throughout Division I-A football during the 2006 season?

The good news is, there definitely would be enough proven players to field a team. The bad news is, out of the 300-plus North Carolina high school football players who signed with Division I-A teams over the past five years, only eight (see below) earned first- or second-team all-conference honors this fall.

As Trout pointed out in a comments section of a previous entry – the number of D1 signees is correlated to the population of that state:

Florida: 17.7 million, 350 signees
Georgia: 9.1 million, 150 signees
North Carolina: 8.6 million, 60 signees
Virginia: 7.6 million, 50 signees
Maryland: 5.6 million, 40 signees
South Carolina: 4.3 million, 40 signees

Again – the issue isn’t the gross amount of talent in the state of North Carolina. The issue is the disproportionately large number of local programs that the local talent must support. Add to this mix the fact that UNC-Charlotte is now considering the addition of a Division One football program and you wonder if local schools will soon be starting two-hundred point linemen. (The UNC Board of Governors would do well to squash this ‘dream’ right now!)

GeorgiaSportsBlog produced a similar, and even more detailed look at football talent by state One of their data points was number of NFL players produced by states.

1. California – 199
2. Florida – 179
3. Texas – 176
4. Georgia – 90
5. Ohio – 78
6. Louisiana – 76
7. Pennsylvania – 58
8. Michigan – 50
9. Virginia – 49
10. South Carolina – 48

When you look at the location of all of this talent…is it any wonder that the SEC is expected to produce SIX TOP TEN classes today?

Percent of NFL players by conference in ’05

SEC states — 31.66%
ACC states — 26.95%
Big East states – 24.35%
Big 10 states — 20.46%
Big 12 states — 17.04%
Pac 10 states — 16.33%

Note: Please don’t use this entry to dive too deep into individual names that NC State is recruiting this year. We will have an entry for everyone to go “On the Record” with their thoughts, etc.

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Football Recruiting General NCS Football

73 Responses to Football Signing Day – State Talent

  1. noah 02/07/2007 at 4:19 PM #

    BoKnows — Probably not.

    It’s not like Urban Meyer and Steve Spurrier have ever turned out awesome results with terrible talent.

    When Spurrier had his best success at Dook, he still was doing it with Dave Brown, Clarkston Hines and Randy Cuthbert. When he was at Florida, he was winning with guys like Emmitt Smith, that QB with the funky delivery that played with the Saints, Alex Brown, Javon Kearse, etc. All of those guys were high school all americans.

    The best recruiting class I’ve ever seen in my life was Notre Dame’s class back in 1990 (I’m not counting the bad old days when you could bring in 50 guys in one class). Notre Dame only offered something like 36 kids scholarships that year. Normally, you offer well over 100 by the very end. They signed 23 of them. They got commitments from about 15 of them the night after they held their end-of-year banquet (emceed by Bob Costas). Of the 23 kids in the class, 14 of them are ranked among the top 100 in the nation and all but one played significant minutes (the one that didn’t had a career ending injury early on). Fourteen of them ended up getting drafted in the NFL. Jerome Bettis (RB), Tom Carter (DB), Jeff Burris (DB/RB), Lake Dawson (WR), Aaron Taylor (OL), Bryant Young (DL), Oliver Gibson (DL), Pete Bercich (LB), Oscar McBridge (TE), Tim Ruddy (C), Jim Flanagan (DT), Willie Clark (DB), Tony Peterson (LB), Peter Berecich (LB)

    Five first round draft choices in Bettis, Carter, Burris, Taylor and Young.

    It also included quarterback Kevin McDougal.

    Notre Dame changed their admissions standards the next year. Yes, Lou Holtz is a great coach. But he had great players as well. And when he stopped being able to get those great players in at Notre Dame, he stopped winning 10+ games in a season. Consequently, the last great year of Notre Dame football was 1993.

  2. noah 02/07/2007 at 4:21 PM #

    Whoops, mentioned Berecich twice. So, 13 future NFLers.

    Like I said, believe whatever you like. If you don’t think rankings matter…fine. You won’t ever convince me of that.

  3. stateguy08 02/07/2007 at 4:27 PM #

    just so you all know, TOB just reported that 5 out of his last 6 recruiting classes at BC have been ranked in the top 26, so lets cut this class some slack and let the staff work.

  4. stateguy08 02/07/2007 at 4:30 PM #

    and unc was 21st this year, so we can compete.

  5. noah 02/07/2007 at 4:35 PM #

    stateguy – this year, hopefully, will be O’brien’s worst class. I think I mentioned in another thread (in a response to Mr. O’s question) that I thought O’Brien did about as well as could reasonably be expected.

  6. VaWolf82 02/07/2007 at 4:51 PM #

    I agree with noah that recruiting rankings matter….but with one side comment. The TEAM that you put on the field has to have all of the positions filled with quality players. If your great recruiting classes leave holes on the team….then you will have problems.

    After watching Erik Kramer, Shane Montgomery, Terry Harvey, Jamie Barnette, and PR….it has been difficult watching State play without an offense the past three years. Say all you want to about penalities….the reason Amato is no longer at State rests on the fact that State hasn’t had meanignful offensive production. I don’t care what anyone says about State’s cumulative recruiting rankings….they didn’t produce an offense worth watching on most Saturdays.

    The play of the OL and QB has been substandard. I don’t know who deserves the majority of the blame….but the facts are painfully obvious.

  7. branjawn 02/07/2007 at 4:55 PM #

    Don’t know if anyone has thrown this out, on the topic of ‘In State Recruiting’. Of our, I count, 24 signees today, 12 are from NC. I think that’s about where we should be aiming. 50/50 and err to the side of

  8. branjawn 02/07/2007 at 4:58 PM #

    hmm, apparently this thing doesn’t like less than symbols. cut off the end of my statement! eh, no body cares anyways.

  9. BoKnowsNCS71 02/07/2007 at 5:09 PM #

    Guys — Have you seen this BB UNC vs NCSU http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nruhland/posters/

  10. colapack 02/07/2007 at 5:13 PM #

    Looking at the ESPN analysis, we are bringing in quite a large group (size and number of) offensive linemen and a tight end. The average weight is 275 lbs. Lets hope they are strong and fast.

  11. Buddygreen 02/07/2007 at 5:26 PM #

    I think too many of you too worried about UNC and what they doing. I am not worried about Butch. He selling instant playing time cause they are extremely thin on bodies over there. I think Davis looking as much quick sastisfaction over there as possible to get himself back into a higher profile job or back to the NFL. I think with Alabama’s hiring of Saban college football coaching salaries are headed on a major upswing and I think Davis sees UNC as a stepping stone. I think the real key to recruiting in NC is too have someone with long term roots that will make a real committment here and develop a network of trust with high school football coaches. Kids in this state continue to leave because no one at UNC and NCSU has developed that relationship. Amato did recruit the state but he didn’t try to embrace the state’s high school football coaches unitl last year. I live in the Charlotte area and it is pathetic the lack of interest and work that UNC and State have but into building relationships in the most talent rich area of the state. I hope TOB understands how to be very successful in the long haul is to work and develop that relationship.

  12. choppack1 02/07/2007 at 5:34 PM #

    “If one accepts the premise that its just recruits then Wake Forest did not happen last year.”

    It’s not just recruits – but recruiting is extremely important – especially if you are going to compete on a national level – which is what USC, Florida, and Texas do. It’s also important to remember that the main reason that Wake won the conference this year is that the conference stunk. I don’t know if you’ll find another year where the ACC is as week. Wake wasn’t a great team – they needed a blocked FG to keep from losing to Duke, they were a fumble and an INT away from losing to us, only beat UNC-Ch by a TD.

    This is why I say – yes, coaching is important, but if you’re going to compete on the national scene, you better have great athletes too. Now, there are some positions where you can develop the talent and find sleepers. IMHO, these positions are the OL, LB, kicking game and QB….OTOH, I think that WRs, DBs, RBs, and DLs – are the areas where you better find guys w/ raw skills. Of that group, probably the most difficult area to find the elite prospects is the DL – which is what worries me about UNC’s class.

  13. class of 74 02/07/2007 at 5:57 PM #

    Noah:
    For the record Meyer did great work at Bowling Green and Utah without the benefit of great recruiting classes. Another reason coaching trumps recruiting EVERYTIME. When the great coaches get the plum positions then you have what is going on in Florida right now. The kids follow the great staff’s to the great schools. No coincidence that Bowden is having his worst year while Meyer is almost selecting, not recruiting the state of Florida.

  14. FullMoonRising 02/07/2007 at 6:00 PM #

    But can’t Butch Davis coach too? I don’t like the feeling I have right now. Are we going to forever be owned by UNC in every sport?

  15. vtpackfan 02/07/2007 at 6:34 PM #

    No damage done by this years recruiting. TOB and his staff will get there day so let all the HOle wallow in it while they can. Ours will be methodical and calculated with red shirting, and discipline the norm along with great pride in the strides this team makes together. Davis is scoping up some heaping talent for sure, but will he be around to see it through and are all these players ready to buy into a team model or are some of them all about themselves (to the point where they would hang on to the last minute and yank everyone around on/near signing day).

  16. tractor57 02/07/2007 at 6:48 PM #

    FMR
    Owned by UNX? – after the big game? Given a bit of time I expect TOB and Lowe to own UNX.
    Patience and pride – THE PACK IS BACK!

  17. E-RO 02/07/2007 at 7:24 PM #

    I can’t wait to see Steven Howard wearing that NC State jersey. I’ve known the guy for a few years now, and he really reminds me of Former Independence High School and current UGA WR Muhammad Massaquoi. Steve runs as good of a route as any senior in High School anywhere. He was coached by the guy that helped Baltimore Ravens WR Mark Clayton be what he is, his HC Maurice Flowers, and one of the best (if not the best) WR coaches at the HS level in NC. Concord area fans may remember a QB that used to play at Concord HS named Andre ‘Highlight’ White.

    If TOB is smart he grabs a couple more guys from Olympic. They have a OT that’s about 6-4 250 and will be a senior next year, and a (6-2ish?) MLB that tackles as good as anyone. He came up to varsity his sophmore year 3 or 4 games into the season, and still managed to be among the state’s leaders in tackles. He’s an athlete that also plays baseball and wrestles. He’ll also be a Senior next year. I believe both would be very interested in NC State.

    And back to this class…

    I saw Kyle Linney while I was on the sidelines of the High Point Central/Alexander Central playoff game in High Point. The guy is massive.

    I’ve seen Charlotte Catholic a few times over the past couple years, their OL is fundamentally sound, so Henry Lawson should be good. No one on the line stood out, but their entire line is sound.

    This class could be better than it’s rated.

  18. BorntoHowl 02/07/2007 at 7:35 PM #

    This process is not simple. On a national scale, you can’t bring home a NC without lots of stars and more importantly a great coaching staff. One or the other will get you consistent invitations to the Car Care stature bowls and a rare BCS bowl (see WF). The recruiting services give stars IMO based almost entirely on raw and somewhat demonstrated talent which is only part of the total package. It’s the good/great coaches who can find the 4 and 5 stars that have a good head on their shoulders that win big.

    We have a good (possibly great) coach in TOB. The reason he came to State was to utilize the better facilities and the broader cirriculum to appeal to more recruits. He has an ego like everyone else, and is positioning his career finale to end with his best chance for success. Hopefully, starting next year, we’ll start seeing that total synergism of a multitude of factors to start taking the pack to the next level.

  19. lsutton5144 02/07/2007 at 7:41 PM #

    According to David Glenn, ACC Sports Journal, UNC has some “signees” that are not yet qualified – imagine that! Looks like Butch has opened up Miami North. Some of their recruits could wind up in prep school, or going somewhere else, and never see UNC.

  20. Miles 02/07/2007 at 8:35 PM #

    Under Chuck Amato it always seemed like we would end up with a bunch of good recruits all in a few positions and then we sucked at all the other positions. These past years we have been loaded with Running backs but they often could not get enough blocking to show their skills. Conversely 2 years ago we had 3 number 1 draft picks sitting on the defensive line but it didnt matter because our DB’s and Safetys as a whole were not so great and continually gave up big plays at key spots.

    I think Wake Forest has shown this year that discipline, intelligence, and team work trump an undisciplined team with all its best recruits playing the same position.

  21. noah 02/08/2007 at 12:32 AM #

    Can Butch Davis coach?

    Absolutely.

    I hope to god Jerry Jones hires him to go back to Arkansas.

  22. Packaholic1 02/08/2007 at 8:37 AM #

    Uh-oh.

    “”That’s really good for alumni and chat rooms and stuff like that,” said O’Brien, who said he shared a similar recruiting philosophy to that of Wake Forest. “We worry about kids that fit our profile at the schools that we’re at and then we coach them. That’s the bottom line.”

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  1. StateFans Nation » Blog Archive » A BAD Idea - 02/11/2007

    wGGm84 Muchos Gracias for your post.Thanks Again. Fantastic.

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