A Look Around the ACC

06-07 Basketball General NCS Basketball44

Procrastination occasionally has consequences. I had most of this prepared after Sunday’s games…but didn’t get it finished before Jeff’s piece yesterday. So there may be some unfortunate overlap with yesterday’s entry. Oh well, maybe someone else can learn from this lesson because all available evidence suggests that I won’t. 😉

I have grown to hate analyses that start with the line: ”If the season ended today….” ; especially when discussing the ACC. As the first conference to decide its champion from a post-season tournament, making projections without including the ACCT seems almost sacrilegious. I prefer to look at where the teams are….and how much work that they have remaining. So with that little sermon out of the way, let’s take a look around the ACC:

 

Overall

Conf

 

 

OOC

 

W-L

W-L

RPI

SOS

SOS

Boston College

18-7

9-3

26

16

65

North Carolina

22-4

8-3

3

6

14

Virginia
Tech

17-7

8-3

22

15

110

Virginia

16-7

8-3

38

37

179

Duke

19-7

6-6

11

4

6

Maryland

19-7

5-6

28

24

66

Clemson

19-6

5-6

29

49

200

Georgia
Tech

17-8

5-6

43

41

157

Florida St.

17-9

5-7

33

13

77

THE VIEW FROM THE TOP

(First Round Byes to the ACCT)

At this juncture, the leading candidates for COY should be Al Skinner, Dave Leiteo, and Seth Greenberg. Whoever finishes the highest in the conference would get my vote. In case of a tie, Al Skinner would lose all tie-breakers and Dave Leiteo would win all tie-breakers. (At least that’s my humble, but accurate, opinion).

The top four teams are in great shape and it would take a collapse of Sendekian proportions to move any of these four teams onto the NCAAT bubble. They have also opened up a little space from the next pack of teams.

Let me take a minute and poke at one of the favorite hornet’s nests around here…OOC SOS. Look at VT vs UVa….nearly identical won/loss records but VT ranks over a dozen spots higher in the RPI mainly due to the difference in OOC SOS.

UVa’s SOS will cost them when it comes time for NCAAT seeding….but it obviously didn’t hurt them when it came to preparing for the conference season. Now, how did that happen? 😉

Repeat after me: A tough schedule reveals good teams; it does not produce them.

– It is worth noting that both VT and FSU made substantial improvements in their OOC SOS when compared to last year. In recent years, both teams suffered the consequences of super-weak OOC schedules when an 8-8 (VT – 2005) and a 9-7 (FSU-2006) ACC record was not enough to get an NCAAT bid. What do you think…..coincidence or lesson learned?

MESS IN THE MIDDLE

I did an entry last season called “The Mess in the Middle” and that title applies once again. However, last year the teams in the middle were fighting to climb up the bubble. This year, the teams in the middle are in much better shape with respect to the NCAAT. Odds are that at least two or three of these teams will make the NCAAT.

Recent history shows that teams with final conference records of 7-9 thru 9-7 are not guaranteed anything…good or bad. The items discussed on “Clearing the Bubble” will come to play when deciding the fate of these teams. One thing that will play into everyone’s favor (except maybe Clemson) is that the OOC schedules are much stronger than recent near-misses from the ACC.

We could slice and dice the standings of these teams in the middle many different ways….but the situation will change twice per week for the remainder of the season. It will be interesting to watch for some of these teams to pick up the pace going down the home stretch. Depending on who falls, it may also be fun to watch some teams stumble into the NIT.

CONFERENCE SOS

I just wanted to point out some visible effects from playing unbalanced conference schedules:

– Maryland played a tougher OOC schedule than FSU, yet FSU has the higher ranked overall schedule.

– You can see the same sort of effect when comparing UVA and GT….with UVa having played the tougher conference schedule (at least to this point).

– VT has the 6th toughest OOC SOS, but has the fourth toughest overall schedule.

There are too many games left to play to start drawing big conclusions on conference SOS. I’m just pointing out something that is a little too complex for the average sports writer to even mention. Hopefully, I will be able to get out a summary of the conference SOS just before the ACCT like I did last year.

THE YEAR OF STREAKS

There seem to be a lot of streaks in conference play this year:

– UVa’s seven-game conference winning streak.
– Clemson falls from the ranks of the undefeated by losing six of the last eight.
– Duke’s four-game conference losing streak.
– GT falls nearly off of the bubble with a four-game losing streak and then recovers with a four-game winning streak.
– FSU starts conference play 0-3, then wins five of six, then drops three in a row.

HOW MANY BIDS?

Clearly, nine teams have a legitimate shot at making the tournament, though some still have some work to do. Six or seven bids would seem to be a near certainty at this point. I put the maximum number of bids at 8…I just can’t see the loser of the 8/9 game in the ACCT getting an at-large bid.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

06-07 Basketball General NCS Basketball

44 Responses to A Look Around the ACC

  1. packpigskinfan23 02/15/2007 at 6:53 PM #

    “The only thing Sidney could have done to make me uber-confident about the future is field a team that was competitive in most ACC games. Given our challenges, I’m not sure that there’s a basketball coach in America who could have done this.”

    we arent too far from that. we been competitive in the most of our ACC games. maybe not a winning team, but we havent been walked all over from start to finish at all.

  2. choppack1 02/15/2007 at 9:40 PM #

    Packpigskinfan23 – We’re close…Like I said, the most encouraging thing I’ve seen is that I thought that we didn’t equip ourselves well in 4 of our first 5 games – I think it’s been the opposite 4 of the last 5.

  3. CedarGroveWolf 02/16/2007 at 8:44 AM #

    “I’m saying this because I don’t know if Fells or Grant have really helped their cause with there ball handling and decision making and may see there PT greatly altered next year.”

    I doubt MJ takes many minutes from either Fells or Grant.

  4. CedarGroveWolf 02/16/2007 at 8:53 AM #

    “Much more talented and deeper groups that were absolutely spanked and provided us with some very embarrassing and totally unexplainable losses.”

    There weren’t many more talented groups in the last 10 years than this year’s group, deeper maybe.
    The Miami loss this year was very embarrassing btw.

  5. TNCSU 02/16/2007 at 9:23 AM #

    We’ve definitely have talent, but besides a thin bench, we lack EXPERIENCE. EXPERIENCE means ALOT in ACC Basketball. Look at the teams (besides UNX) at the top – BC, UVa, VT — all have experience (esp. in the backcourt with VT and UVa) while BC has the front-runner for POY and a couple of other experienced players. We’ll be there next year, and especially the year after. Fells, McCauley, Costner in 2 years will be winning alot of games and they will have had a LOT of experience. The future is bright, guys!!

  6. noah 02/16/2007 at 10:07 AM #

    Regarding the scholarship situation, are we sure that everyone in next year’s class is going to qualify? And that the NCAA will recognize everyone’s high school as legit?

  7. redfred2 02/16/2007 at 11:27 AM #

    “There weren’t many more talented groups in the last 10 years than this year’s group, deeper maybe.”

    CedarGroveWolf, exactly when did you step on your rose colored glasses?

    “The Miami loss this year was very embarrassing btw.”

    Just go back to 2-22-06 if you really want to revisit embarrassing. Try to remember the line ups for the game, the experience and depth, and that it happened in YEAR NUMBER TEN. Also take into account that this year’s “talented group,” one of the best in a whole decade, as you call it, were basically sitting on their asses and not contributing in games like they could and should have been.

    BTW, I know you didn’t type his name, but who is bringing it up and making comparisons today? Not me.

  8. choppack1 02/16/2007 at 4:43 PM #

    Noah – I think there’s only 1 player where that’s truly an issue. I don’t know about Hickson situation – but Smith’s seems more, er fluid….Meaning, I think Hickson’s here if he gets his SAT/ACT scores and I haven’t heard he’s a borderline case. I saw that Smith’s score was fine, but I don’t know about the Mt. Zion thing. There should be no issues w/ Thomas, Mays, or CJ Williams.

  9. TampaPack 02/16/2007 at 4:51 PM #

    A story about our former coach, attempting to pull off a first in the modern history of the pac-10..

    http://deadspin.com/sports/college-basketball/give-em-hell-sun-devils-237324.php

  10. vtpackfan 02/16/2007 at 6:05 PM #

    I’m not as interested in the ACC as a collective group as much as I used to be. NC State losing so much ground since V was run off kind of dull’s the interest of many (not all) Wolpackers in terms of following the other teams more closely, assesing whose better and whose best. It’s still there for me, just not as intense as it once was because I haven’t really cared so much given that the aim of our program hasn’t been to equal or better the best for years in basketball. I think (hope) that could change in the coming years. I just worry that this is all Sid’s doing, bringing back the tradition and the enthusiasm and that the school and Alumni Club could give a dame unless money became an issue.

    If either BC or VT can pull this out this season, regular season champs or tourney, then I would be happy for them but wouldn’t expect it to become a pattern. W/O Dudley for the Eagles next year BC is going to have some real problems scoring sometimes, and the experience and talent VT will be losing will have to be rebuilt. Other programs just reload (i.e. Dook, UNX, and sometimes UMD and GT) and I hope that Sid can use the sleeping giant otherwise known as the dillusional State fan base and our not too distant tradition to springboard this program into a position where it can cultivate talent on a yearly basis.

    Only time will tell on the incoming recruit situation, and plenty’o time we will have this off season. Ofcourse I would love to have all three make it here but if not it’s not the worst case (that was leading up to this season after Lowe had accepted). We still have a solid nucleus and two young pg’s that will hopefully all make strides over the off season. Coach Harris’s kid could probably give a few quality minutes each night, and big Lew could give us a few minutes and maybe some hard fouls now and then. Bottom line is there is no where but up to go from where these team started this campaign.

    As long as people are mentioning recruits, keep in mind that after ’08 (Julius May’s and CJ Williams so far) we could start having many open scholly’s for ’09 and ’10. If this staff plays it right and we start filling the stands every home game then we may find the answer to alot of life’s problems right here in state. ’09 guards Earnest Ross, and Akeem Richmond are big time prospects and both being sought out by us. In ’10 C.J. Leslie is going to be another sought SF, and there are a bunch of freshman pg’s starting for big Varsity schools around the state, one right in Raleigh at Enloe. Getting Jonnny Thomas, C.J. Williams and takinf a good look at the seven footer Walker show that we’re already serious about keeping these guys here at home if we can, which could pay off huge if these ’09,’10 classes live up to the hype.

  11. Gene 02/16/2007 at 6:24 PM #

    Other programs just reload …. and I hope that Sid…

    I really hope Sid gets us to the point, where we just reload every year.

    There’s no logical reason Duke should be able to do this year in and year out. Small school, limited fan base, within the state, and playing in an old, small, gym. I know the media hype about the “Cameron Crazies” helps sway kids opinions, though it’s been 20 years since the fans really did anything original and/or “crazy”. Any of the old time gyms – Cameron, Reynolds, Cole Fieldhouse, etc. – had students very close to courtside and these programs moved to newer and bigger stadiums (I remember a commentator, last year, paraphrasing Archie Miller about his recruitment of Chris Wright and Archie said, “with Reynolds you had to tell them about the tradition, history, etc. but with the RBC Center it sort of sells itself”, so selling Indoor Stadium is not an inherent advantage). I give Mikie K a ton of credit for building Duke up to the point, where they just can reload.

    We need a coach, who will work very hard to get us to that point.

    I hope Sid’s that coach.

  12. redfred2 02/16/2007 at 9:21 PM #

    The WOLFPACK women just beat the number 2 powder blues.

  13. xphoenix87 02/16/2007 at 10:15 PM #

    2 for 2 against the light blue on our home court this year. I missed being there for the men, but at least I got to be there tonight. Amazing night for the women’s team and a great day for wolpack basketball.

  14. VaWolf82 02/17/2007 at 12:59 PM #

    I’m not as interested in the ACC as a collective group as much as I used to be.

    This is the way that I felt during the MOC and Les years. There was no hope that “this” year would amount to anything and no hope that “next” year would be any better. I essentially quit watching ACC BB and football.

    In contrast to those bleak years, I’ve seen enough positive things this year to still have hope for next year….so this year doesn’t bother me. It helps that I know alot of VT and UVa fans and it’s nice to see those two teams have better than expected years.

    I’ll also “blame” SFN as well. I try to keep abreast of things in the ACC and hope to find something that interests me enough to write about.

  15. choppack1 02/17/2007 at 2:30 PM #

    This year for me has been a mixed bag. However, as far as the ACC goes, there have been some fantastic games – and this is as competitive as the league has been overall in quite some time.

    I’ve written off this year and there’s no pressure. The last couple of years, if we lost a game it was usually very important and probably heartbraking, so you didn’t feel like watching another game for quite a while. This year, we haven’t lost any heartbrakers, and we’ve had some fun wins, so it hasn’t ruined basketball for the rest of the week.

    It will still be more than a little disappointing selection Sunday knowing that we’re not going to the Big Dance for the first time in 5 years. (Not Sidney’s fault here…) Hopefully though, this will be one of the few times when I don’t have to watch the show.

  16. Luke12321 02/18/2007 at 11:40 AM #

    Great stuff here! I have a feeling Hickson and Smith will have no problem with the book side of stuff. Do I know anything inside? Nope! Smith done well on his SAT and I am sure Hickson will do the same though. Both are great talents and will contribute greatly next year.

  17. CedarGroveWolf 02/19/2007 at 9:01 AM #

    “Also take into account that this year’s “talented group,” one of the best in a whole decade, as you call it, were basically sitting on their asses and not contributing in games like they could and should have been. ”

    Costner was injured. Others were true frosh, (not the same players yousee today) & playing behind EXPERIENCED players. Yeah, sit Big Ced for Ben. LMAO!

  18. redfred2 02/19/2007 at 1:09 PM #

    “Yeah, sit Big Ced for Ben. LMAO!”

    I’m not saying that Ben McCauley could have done anything last year, but you act like Cedric Simmons absolutely set the ACC and world on fire last season? Which he DID NOT, not because he couldn’t have, but instead because he was never given the opportunity to do so. Just like Simmons, McCauley wouldn’t have any affect at all in that offense.

    I think I’m talking about using the player’s natural skills, in a natural position, in something called a “rotation.” Apparently none of those factors were considered as options in the year 2006 and before.

  19. TNCSU 02/20/2007 at 5:46 PM #

    Looks like we may have a PG coming in next year (’07) too — Who knows??

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