A Look Around the ACC

06-07 Basketball General NCS Basketball44

Procrastination occasionally has consequences. I had most of this prepared after Sunday’s games…but didn’t get it finished before Jeff’s piece yesterday. So there may be some unfortunate overlap with yesterday’s entry. Oh well, maybe someone else can learn from this lesson because all available evidence suggests that I won’t. 😉

I have grown to hate analyses that start with the line: ”If the season ended today….” ; especially when discussing the ACC. As the first conference to decide its champion from a post-season tournament, making projections without including the ACCT seems almost sacrilegious. I prefer to look at where the teams are….and how much work that they have remaining. So with that little sermon out of the way, let’s take a look around the ACC:

 

Overall

Conf

 

 

OOC

 

W-L

W-L

RPI

SOS

SOS

Boston College

18-7

9-3

26

16

65

North Carolina

22-4

8-3

3

6

14

Virginia
Tech

17-7

8-3

22

15

110

Virginia

16-7

8-3

38

37

179

Duke

19-7

6-6

11

4

6

Maryland

19-7

5-6

28

24

66

Clemson

19-6

5-6

29

49

200

Georgia
Tech

17-8

5-6

43

41

157

Florida St.

17-9

5-7

33

13

77

THE VIEW FROM THE TOP

(First Round Byes to the ACCT)

At this juncture, the leading candidates for COY should be Al Skinner, Dave Leiteo, and Seth Greenberg. Whoever finishes the highest in the conference would get my vote. In case of a tie, Al Skinner would lose all tie-breakers and Dave Leiteo would win all tie-breakers. (At least that’s my humble, but accurate, opinion).

The top four teams are in great shape and it would take a collapse of Sendekian proportions to move any of these four teams onto the NCAAT bubble. They have also opened up a little space from the next pack of teams.

Let me take a minute and poke at one of the favorite hornet’s nests around here…OOC SOS. Look at VT vs UVa….nearly identical won/loss records but VT ranks over a dozen spots higher in the RPI mainly due to the difference in OOC SOS.

UVa’s SOS will cost them when it comes time for NCAAT seeding….but it obviously didn’t hurt them when it came to preparing for the conference season. Now, how did that happen? 😉

Repeat after me: A tough schedule reveals good teams; it does not produce them.

– It is worth noting that both VT and FSU made substantial improvements in their OOC SOS when compared to last year. In recent years, both teams suffered the consequences of super-weak OOC schedules when an 8-8 (VT – 2005) and a 9-7 (FSU-2006) ACC record was not enough to get an NCAAT bid. What do you think…..coincidence or lesson learned?

MESS IN THE MIDDLE

I did an entry last season called “The Mess in the Middle” and that title applies once again. However, last year the teams in the middle were fighting to climb up the bubble. This year, the teams in the middle are in much better shape with respect to the NCAAT. Odds are that at least two or three of these teams will make the NCAAT.

Recent history shows that teams with final conference records of 7-9 thru 9-7 are not guaranteed anything…good or bad. The items discussed on “Clearing the Bubble” will come to play when deciding the fate of these teams. One thing that will play into everyone’s favor (except maybe Clemson) is that the OOC schedules are much stronger than recent near-misses from the ACC.

We could slice and dice the standings of these teams in the middle many different ways….but the situation will change twice per week for the remainder of the season. It will be interesting to watch for some of these teams to pick up the pace going down the home stretch. Depending on who falls, it may also be fun to watch some teams stumble into the NIT.

CONFERENCE SOS

I just wanted to point out some visible effects from playing unbalanced conference schedules:

– Maryland played a tougher OOC schedule than FSU, yet FSU has the higher ranked overall schedule.

– You can see the same sort of effect when comparing UVA and GT….with UVa having played the tougher conference schedule (at least to this point).

– VT has the 6th toughest OOC SOS, but has the fourth toughest overall schedule.

There are too many games left to play to start drawing big conclusions on conference SOS. I’m just pointing out something that is a little too complex for the average sports writer to even mention. Hopefully, I will be able to get out a summary of the conference SOS just before the ACCT like I did last year.

THE YEAR OF STREAKS

There seem to be a lot of streaks in conference play this year:

– UVa’s seven-game conference winning streak.
– Clemson falls from the ranks of the undefeated by losing six of the last eight.
– Duke’s four-game conference losing streak.
– GT falls nearly off of the bubble with a four-game losing streak and then recovers with a four-game winning streak.
– FSU starts conference play 0-3, then wins five of six, then drops three in a row.

HOW MANY BIDS?

Clearly, nine teams have a legitimate shot at making the tournament, though some still have some work to do. Six or seven bids would seem to be a near certainty at this point. I put the maximum number of bids at 8…I just can’t see the loser of the 8/9 game in the ACCT getting an at-large bid.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

06-07 Basketball General NCS Basketball

44 Responses to A Look Around the ACC

  1. VaWolf82 02/15/2007 at 10:13 AM #

    Crap!

    I completely forget to give Ken Pomeroy credit and thanks for the team’s records as well as the RPI and SOS numbers. His site is great and I have the ACC summary page bookmarked for use. You can go directly from this page to each team’s page where the results and remaining schedule can be found. Good stuff here.

    http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?c=ACC

  2. choppack1 02/15/2007 at 11:03 AM #

    Doesn’t Clemson always do this? They start out great or solid playing a pathetic non-conference schedule and USC – who usually sucks. When they enter conference play, everything falls apart. The one different thing this year was that they started off w/ some wins.

    The way that this season has gone though, I can see an EPIC collapse by any of those teams who at this point look “in” – placing them on the bubble.

  3. redfred2 02/15/2007 at 12:24 PM #

    Way off topic and from another thread…delete at will.

    “I’m simply amazed about how they keep talking about how great Maryland is and how much State sucks.”

    They’re way too late, but I guess you can’t really fault the media for indirectly admitting what a shallow and screwed up line up the great Herbert left behind at NCSU, as compared to Maryland and the rest of the ACC. The season is winding down and you just never know to expect on any given night, though we have beaten a few top twenty five teams including everyone’s darling and the #3 team in the country at the time. We need to remember that there were only distant memories and far fetched dreams of EVER doing that again before this season started. I’m not particularly happy at the moment, but I haven’t been totally embarrassed at any time yet this season either.

    When making a comparison of this team to those NCSU teams leading up until now, there were some relative heaping helpings of talent wearing the WOLFPACK RED then, as compared to now. Much more talented and deeper groups that were absolutely spanked and provided us with some very embarrassing and totally unexplainable losses. So far this season we’ve won some HUGE games with a much less talented group, then again, we’ve lost with less talent also, but not by the margins that were expected coming in. We’ve lost basketball games for a REASON this season, and we haven’t embarrassed ourselves by looking like under-achieving, pre-programmed jackasses without a clue, while doing it.

  4. choppack1 02/15/2007 at 12:33 PM #

    RF – I wasn’t embarassed last night. I thought our kids gave good effort. We just didn’t get some key shots to drop and had some key calls go against us.

    I actually thought Sidney made some questionable moves in this game – but so will Coach K and Roy. No big deal.

    This year doesn’t matter for me. It will only be telling if we continue to struggle in year 2 and 3 on the defensive end – because that’s where we’re the worst. (For example, even though we went to the NCAA’s in Les’ first year, there was ample evidence his teams wouldn’t be strong enough defensively to make any kind of run in a tournament setting. That’s why by year 3 of Lesville, our leadership was either stupid or not bothered by our on-court results.)

  5. Rick 02/15/2007 at 1:01 PM #

    “They’re way too late, but I guess you can’t really fault the media for indirectly admitting what a shallow and screwed up line up the great Herbert left behind at NCSU,”

    This is an interesting point. Anyone with half a brain can see how shortcomings.

    BTW good analysis.

  6. redfred2 02/15/2007 at 1:17 PM #

    chop

    I agree, poor defense is absolutely killing us. I’ll have to say that no one on this team is using proper position defense. Last night was especially terrible. I have never seen defensive players just stop their own momentum and give away the baseline like we did for the Terps last night. They’re also out of position and rushing out so hard to defend a shooter on the perimeter that they can’t change directions when he ball fakes and blows by them. They are getting out of position to try stop every play, when that is an impossibility, and they’re not where they should be so that the defense set can limit the certain parts that it was designed to limit. All the opposing team has to do is have a little patience, wait for an overplay on our part, and every option will become wide open for them.

  7. Gene 02/15/2007 at 1:19 PM #

    I know this is off topic, but I think it might be of interest to NCSU fans and I’m not sure how to e-mail SFN directly, to keep this tangent of the message boards, but do you guys know anything regarding our men’s basketball recruiting. I think it’s not as clear cut as it seemed a few weeks ago.

    From what I’ve read on the internet, we are still seeking more players for 2008, such as Catalin “Bo-Bo” Baciu and Garvey Young, SG, in Bethesda, Md., and we are still making a push for Jai Lucas for the 2007 class.

    I think some of this is based on Tracy Smith possibly not qualifying academically and possibly some transfers to open up scholarships.

    Any more information would be nice.

  8. Rick 02/15/2007 at 1:31 PM #

    “e-mail SFN directly:

    [email protected]

    And I would like to hear more about recruiting.

  9. primacyone 02/15/2007 at 1:32 PM #

    To stay on topic – I say the ACC get’s 8 and the loser is Clemson.

    To go off topic – wait, I hear something, it’s a buzzing sound, what is that . . . It’s the Killer BBBBBBBBBBBBB’s . . . . Brown and Baker . . . . or is it Brown, Baker and Beck….

    Is it close enough to spring practice start talking about football?

  10. RickJ 02/15/2007 at 2:13 PM #

    “Recent history shows that teams with final conference records of 7-9 thru 9-7 are not guaranteed anything…good or bad.”

    Even though FSU was excluded last year at 9 – 7, I don’t think there is any scenario of a 9 – 7 team not making the field this year.

    I really think there is a decent chance the ACC gets 9. Looking at the remaining schedule, Georgia Tech looks the most vulnerable to me.

  11. packbackr04 02/15/2007 at 2:18 PM #

    haha, yeah an update on recruiting would be awesome. thanks for the info Gene. i would be very interested to hear what is going on. didnt Jai lucas sign his LOI??? we desperatley need a true PG next year.

    gene, who did you hear might be transferring???

  12. vtpackfan 02/15/2007 at 2:20 PM #

    The ACC tourney should be fun to watch this year. Everyone can be ousted by anyone else as we showed againwst UNX and Wake showed last night. Is the tourney in Tampa/St. Pete in that Tropicana Dome?

    Eveyone’s always still actively recruiting, no matter how many scholly’s are available. I am interested in why the big Romanian (Baciua?) has received an offer as well for ’08. Maybe he’s post grad bound or maybe there is something behind the scenes that will just have to play out. Regardless it will be and long off season, as it always is, and it will provide ample time to discover what mystery’s are left to discover from Coach Lowe’s first go-round. It’s all speculation at this point, whether somebody says Smith won’t qualify or Big Lew could transfer. Jai Lucas will not be coming to State, that I’m pretty sure of. He’s got his dad’s alma mater pulling him and his brother’s Cowboys in the mix, along with UK and a host of others. It wasn’t a good fit for him so Sid went out and pursued MJ after getting Degand to replace Atsur.

  13. TNCSU 02/15/2007 at 2:32 PM #

    I’d like to know whether we are pursuing Baciu or Walker as our primary “Big” man target. However, I’m more concerned with next year, and our guard situation with Degand and Johnson. It still doesn’t seem like either is a great shooter (from scouting reports), but Degand looks to be quicker. I agree that I do NOT think Lucas is coming. It seems with many of these young PG’s in the ACC, we need a quick PG, in order to stop the dribble penetration — which killed us last night.

  14. Gene 02/15/2007 at 2:57 PM #

    didnt Jai lucas sign his LOI???

    He’s waiting for April to sign.

    I hope the ACC gets 8 teams into the NCAA’s. I think one thing, which will be a factor, is how Duke finishes. There are 3 about .500 teams, in conference play, sitting a half game behind Duke. Any one of those schools, who can leap frog Duke in the conference standings, I think gets in. If Duke is 5th, we might get one or two more teams in, since no conference has gotten more than 7 in. If Duke is 8th, I think we have a better chance at getting 8 teams in.

    I don’t think this is an unmitigated bias for Duke, but they played a tough schedule and still have a pretty good RPI. If they are 7-9 or 8-8, while Ga. Tech, Maryland, and Clemson end up 9-7 or 8-8, than it’d be tough to find a reason to exclude one of them and include Duke.

    I know we’ve gotten in, when we had a worse conference record than other schools, who did not get in, but we were “hot” at the right time, while they were “cold” at the wrong time. Plus we were getting some players back from injuries, which probably factored into the decision making.

    If Ga. Tech, Maryland and Clemson end up 9-7 or 8-8 and Duke is anywhere between 9-7 and 7-9, you really can’t argue any team was unduly “hot” or “cold” towards the end of the season.

    In the end, I really think Duke will be the “floor” for who gets into the NCAA tournament, from the ACC. Anyone above Duke gets in and pretty much anyone below Duke would bet excluded. Unless Duke wins out their remaining conference games, than my logic flies out the window, but I don’t think that will happen.

  15. vtpackfan 02/15/2007 at 3:02 PM #

    We need a great perimeter defender for sure. I’m not sure that there will be anything drastically different from this years ball club over to next in that area. I’m concerned mainly that the Degand/MJ/TF(Trevor Fergueson or Terd Fergueson) show will run into problems orchastrating the half court offense. McCauley, Costner, Horner, Hickson and possilby Smith will only produce and prosper on the offensive end as far as these ball handlers aloow them. If alot of things go right with these young inexperienced transfers then our offense could be the toast of the town in the ACC next year. That could help off set some of the defensive limitations. Only time will tell.

    Good for VT and UVA this year. They have played and won alot of close ball games this year, and I think that it may be an big asset come ACC tourney time when you can cut the tension in the building with a knife from the tip off. UNX and Dook could be left out of the final four at the ACC’s this year, how seet would that be?

    Nothing mentioned here by Roy’s comments after the lose to the Hokies. I thought they were lame, and useless. We know that he doesn’t say anything bad about himself in the locker room in front of those guys. He rip’s into them and then takes it out on them come practice. That whole “worst job of coaching in 19 years” is amusing because it’s just for the sports reporters to run with.

  16. packbackr04 02/15/2007 at 3:30 PM #

    thanks for the info on jai lucas Gene—
    any info on who may be transferring???

  17. choppack1 02/15/2007 at 3:50 PM #

    “I agree, poor defense is absolutely killing us. I’ll have to say that no one on this team is using proper position defense. Last night was especially terrible. I have never seen defensive players just stop their own momentum and give away the baseline like we did for the Terps last night. They’re also out of position and rushing out so hard to defend a shooter on the perimeter that they can’t change directions when he ball fakes and blows by them. They are getting out of position to try stop every play, when that is an impossibility, and they’re not where they should be so that the defense set can limit the certain parts that it was designed to limit. All the opposing team has to do is have a little patience, wait for an overplay on our part, and every option will become wide open for them.”

    RF – You’re exactly right. I call that Wake Forest defense. You start off trying really hard, but the fundamental D and help D and everything else isn’t good enough for a long enough time.

    I do think Degand’s D speed will help us a lot next year. Like I said, next year is when I start evaluating Lowe’s coaching seriously. This year, the idea was to keep the ship from sinking. We’ve had some moments that encourage me, and we’ve had moments that make me fret over the future.

    Perhaps Lowe’s biggest challenge will be the scholarship management. We have an odd roster even coming into next year. We start to normalize in 2008 – but we’re still missing a good combo/scoring guard.

  18. GoldenChain 02/15/2007 at 3:56 PM #

    Interesting, my view of Roy’s comments was the same as if I said “the divorce is all my fault, I would have tried to talk it out with her but she was too busy going out with other guys, it’s all my fault.”
    Roy gave a lame admission of guilt then promptly mentioned the 6 missed FT’s and that Ty didn’t run the play that was called for the last shot (took a 3 instead of dribble penetration).
    Clemson, it’s like an old vinyl record skipping, every year is supposed to be this year whether it’s pigskin or hoops. I used to do some civic work with one of their centers from the early ’70’s and he would always talk about “we’re 10-0 but no body gives us any respect.” Clemson is the one team who has consistently played a weaker OCC than Herb! That’s been happening for 30+ years.
    Props to VATech. They have really hug tough and played well. UVA is a surprise to me.
    Going along with the main article at the top, I was listening to a GATech game at the end of their losing streak and the commentator was saying “this is the same coach that had his team in the Final 4 just a couple seasons ago, you have to wonder about his future at GATech.”
    I think Hamilton is a great coach and he’s got a great future at GATech.
    Duke has 6 McD’s AAs and they only have one senior and one junior. I’m not ready to write K off yet and I think it’s foolish of others to do so as well.

  19. primacyone 02/15/2007 at 3:59 PM #

    UMass will be playing Derrek Whittenburg and the Fordham Rams on ESPN2 tonight at 9:00.

  20. CedarGroveWolf 02/15/2007 at 4:40 PM #

    next year we should fine with Degand & Johnson running the point. Atsur’s injury just killed our chances this year. Interior D will be better too next season with JJ in the middle.

    We will police the board as we see fit. – Rick

  21. redfred2 02/15/2007 at 5:40 PM #

    We are just now living down to expectations. We collapse for many reasons which may not be overcome this season, but they are fixable. In this FIRST and rookie ACC season the lows and losing margins have been contained about as well as the PO ever did, and the highs have already surpassed it’s best efforts.

    I’m still lovin’ it!!!

  22. Gene 02/15/2007 at 5:49 PM #

    any info on who may be transferring???

    Who knows…really…who knows…I’d love to talk to that guy…

    I thought our scholly position was set for the 2007 and 2008 classes, but I guess it’s not so crystal clear.

  23. vtpackfan 02/15/2007 at 5:52 PM #

    “next year we should fine with Degand & Johnson running the point. ”

    Another option after MJ becomes eligible would be to play them both at the same time. We could have two confident ball handlers in there with Degands defense to help stop the other team point guard. I’m saying this because I don’t know if Fells or Grant have really helped their cause with there ball handling and decision making and may see there PT greatly altered next year.

    I think the key to the success of the defensive unit could be the effectiveness of frosh Hickson (i.e. not getting into foul trouble, being aggresive on the boards, helping out and clogging lanes), and the off season bulking up of Horner. I think Dennis could be on D what McCauley is on O this season (i.e. high energy, over achiever, lead by example type). He could really earns some minutes next year if he bulks up and defends the low block well, he is already our gutsiest defender after Atsur and just needs some time to develop and get stronger. Plus his three point shot will be useful if McCauley gets doubled teamed or Sid draws up some sets for him. He might not having the highest ceiling as far a potential when you compare him to guys like Grant, Costner, and Fells, but he may be the most likely to be solid and not “take a game off” now and then.

  24. vtpackfan 02/15/2007 at 6:03 PM #

    ACC COY is a real toss up and should go to winner of the regular season. (yes, even if it’s Mr. “anybody seen a sword I can fall on?” Williams.

    I would like to see Clemson come out of it’s free fall and make the NCAA’s. I’d love to beat FSU and still see them make it in. 8 or 9 would be terrific for the conference, but really it won’t matter if we don’t get more then one in the sweet sixteen. It works against you when you get alot in and they start putting up the records of each conference and yours starts piling up in the loss column. VPI lost to Marshall this season so there overall ranking is not going to be great unless then win the ACC outright or take the tourney. Probably a #3 seed.

  25. choppack1 02/15/2007 at 6:36 PM #

    “We are just now living down to expectations. We collapse for many reasons which may not be overcome this season, but they are fixable. In this FIRST and rookie ACC season the lows and losing margins have been contained about as well as the PO ever did, and the highs have already surpassed it’s best efforts.

    I’m still lovin’ it!!!”

    To quote a cheesy movie – “That’s where I’ve gotta disagree w/ you there, buddy.”

    We lived down to expectations going 1-4 in our first 5 games. Granted, we did beat Wake Forest, but we’re a more talented team than they are. They have the pieces, just don’t have the talent, we have talent, just don’t have all the pieces. Granted, I was shocked by how well we played in Winston, but that shock was replaced by disappointment by our effort against the Dukies.

    We played fantastic basketball vs. VaTech and UNC, then a great first half vs. Tech. Since then, it’s pretty much been a trainwreck w/ the exception of a few moments here and there. I’ve been pleased w/ our effort w/ 4 of the last 5 games. But I certainly haven’t enjoyed it anymore than I enjoy any season w/out an NCAA bid. The last “losing season” – (and I consider any season that doesn’t include an NCAA tourney bid a losing one) – I enjoyed was Sendek’s first year. The difference between the team that Sendek coached and the one that Les coached – w/ the same kids – was totally night and day. We went 4-4 the second half of the season and went to the ACC championship game, in a game where we played up to our potential. Carolina beat us that afternoon w/ a strong effort. At that point, I was excited about our future because I saw a totally different team. I saw a team that played tough D and a team that had become mentally tougher.

    I’m holding my breath now. I’m excited about next year. However, as a Wolfpack fan, I’ve gotten my hopes too many times for those special things that just don’t materialize. As I’ve stated, I’ve seen a lot of things that excite me about our potential for the future. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen the evidence I’d like to see that can make me sit back and go, “Oh yes, the future is so bright, I’ve got to wear shades. I’m gonna smoke me a nice cigar.”

    It’s not Sidney’s fault either – it’s just as much the previous coaches who have shown great potential at one time or other but who have failed to win us an ACC championship or generate one of those tremendously special seasons that rewards you as a fan unfailingly.

    The only thing Sidney could have done to make me uber-confident about the future is field a team that was competitive in most ACC games. Given our challenges, I’m not sure that there’s a basketball coach in America who could have done this.

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