Previewing State @ Wake (Updated 10am Sat)

06-07 Basketball General36

The Pack travels to Wake Forest tomorrow in a match-up of two extremely young squads who will battle to stay out of the ACC cellar all season. The game is at noon and will be televised on your local RLF (Raycom/Lincoln Financial affiliate).

I truly believe that State CAN win at Wake Forest tomorrow. If Engin Atsur was 100% healthy I would actually feel confident that State WOULD win at Wake Forest. Unfortunately for the Pack, the Deacons provide a legitimate and significant match-up challenge due to the number of bodies that Skip Prosser has at his disposal.

Wake doesn’t have many top flight studs on the roster, but they definitely have tenish guys that who are serviceable and can provide minutes. These guys played in waves against Boston College and – bad news for State – had enough horsepower to press the Eagles the entire second half while creating a lot of turnovers, havoc and easy baskets. This is the worst possible match-up for the Pack.

With this said, I expect Sidney Lowe to somewhat bite the bullet and play more guys off the Wolfpack’s bench. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a little more of Bryan Neiman, Trevor Ferguson, and even some of the football players that have joined the squad. I don’t expect much offensive impact from these guys…but, we desperately need some bodies to play good defense, rebound and provide some rest for the starters.

Similarly, Skip Prosser is expected to shake-up the Demon Deacons’ general routine as well. Prosser has hinted that Wake’s “tendency to sleepwalk through the first half might mean some changes in the starting lineup” after Boston College took at 23 point lead on the Deacons Tuesday night; Wake has trailed at halftime eight times this season.

That might mean Drum (6-foot-6), who has the experience to keep the Deacons focused early on, could replace 6-8 freshman Jamie Skeen (North Mecklenburg High), who hasn’t scored in two straight games.

As always, S6 has the statistical preview that we like to highlight and use to piggy-back our comments on. S6’s first set of comments echo my previous observation:

Probable Starters (Nine different Deacs have started a game this season, so bear with me

Not to bring up very many bad memories, but this link will take you to the last time that State and Wake squared off against each other. Just remember that no matter how bad it feels this year – we are only in year one. There is plenty of time to improve upon the following performance (that doesn’t even include State’s ACC Tournament loss to the Deacs last year).

wake

Updated Saturday, 10am
We already knew that Engin Atsur would be out for today’s game, but there are a couple of other items out there that are worth connecting to this entry.

‘As the novelty of “Hey, N.C. State’s not as bad as we thought,” wears off’, the N&O’s ACCNow Blog highlights some points echo many of our comments in recent weeks.

In the past three games, UNCG, a team that normally makes 32 percent of its 3s, made 44 percent in an overtime loss; BC, last in the ACC at 33 percent from 3, made 40 percent; Clemson, normally a 34-percent team, hit 52 percent.

Obviously, playing only six players and chasing shots from the outside for 38 to 40 minutes per game is physically draining and major reason for both the defensive and rebounding deficiencies, but it’s not the only reason, Lowe said.

“Our initial defense hasn’t been that bad. But we have to control the boards. Second opportunities have hurt us. It’s not over until you rebound.”

I understand his point since many of the open three-point looks have come on second and third opportunities, but his comments that ‘initial defense hasn’t been THAT BAD’ isn’t a ringing endorsement that initial defense has been good.

* The Wilmington Star News lists the Pack as #11 in the ACC just in front of Miami (who is currently 2-1 in the conference).

06-07 Basketball General

36 Responses to Previewing State @ Wake (Updated 10am Sat)

  1. thebigwood 01/12/2007 at 5:50 PM #

    A little off topic but…does anyone know if there is a possibility that Atsur could, or would, redshirt?

  2. wufpaxno1 01/12/2007 at 7:11 PM #

    Atsur is not eligible to redshirt. This is it for him so I guess he has to take his lumps and finish strong….we hope!

  3. Gene 01/12/2007 at 7:32 PM #

    it seems SId has been getting NO LOVE from the ACC refs this year

    I noticed the same thing. We’re not getting the benefit of the doubt on some calls and other teams are getting away with fouls against us.

    Hope Sid can make a good enough impression on the refs, that we get more than our fare share of calls in the future.

    Regarding Degand and Johnson, I’m trying to curb my enthusiasm about what next year will be like because both of them are combo-guards, like Atsur, and no one has seen them play a lot of minutes and won’t know how good they’ll be as PG’s. I’m just keeping my fingers crossed and hoping for the best, but I don’t expect too much (just incase I’m disappointed).

    The only thing, which might help us against Wake Forest, is if we can jump out to an early lead and demoralize them. If the heavens part and we can hit some early three’s and Wake Forest misses some open shots (as opposed the season long trend of us missing three’s and opponents having their best shooting performance of the season against us), I think we might have a shot at winning.

    If the game’s close, on the road, with our recent string of losses, I don’t think we’ll have enough left in the tank – mentally and physically – to pull a win out.

    And for the record, we beat Michigan when Bryan Nieman was getting significant minutes.

    Ferguson wasn’t eligible to play and so we didn’t have any other options. I personally wouldn’t mind seeing Nieman get a few more minutes each game, just to let some players rest. If knew as much about match ups and the pro’s and con’s of Nieman’s game, I’d be coaching somewhere. Guess we have to trust Sid’s doing the right thing, even if it is only playing 6 guys, which I don’t think will change for the remainder of the season, unless Atsur’s healthy again.

  4. vtpackfan 01/12/2007 at 8:37 PM #

    We’re talking about Bryan Nieman “stealing” a few minutes here and there, right? This isn’t Duke or some other team that is vying to turn it’s season around on a few little teaks here, and a few twist there. This program needs a “Katrina” like recovery after having it’s roster decimated by players graduating, going pro in someting, recruits decommitting, or injuries. It’s not fatique, it’s not the new Coach or the player rotation. It’s the whole enchilada.

    It’s up to the players to some how pull something together and maybe string a few W’s along the way. Sid can put them in a position to do this, and I think he and his staff have gone about and done this very well so far. The best way Coach Lowe can help this players get back into the mix is to sorround them with help in the form of recruits and transfers. Argueably the one thing Sid has really done great at, which is ironic seeing that when he was hired many thought his background would exclude him from making quick strides in this area. Added up Johnson and Degand may equal a functional ACC caliber pg with the tutoring of two of the best the conference has ever seen. Neither will be flashy or leaders in any bid stat category, but together they will prevent teams from abusing us and taking the team out of rythm while getting our half court set up.

    We ought to remember that player development still exist in an extreme situation such as Coach Lowe has inherited. Just because we have to have all of these players developed now because no regular’s with the exception of Gavin returning doesn’t make it so. Part of proper player development is giving them meaningful and challenging goals to buy into and work on one step at a time. While other coach’s execute this by using playing time as a motivational factor, Sid can’t. He’ left with, “your goal is to overnight turn into first string, heavy minute ACC guy’s”. Some guys can hack it right away (McCauley along with Costner and sometimes Horner), while others probably need to be taking smaller goals on and working there way up the ladder (Fells, Fergueson, and GG when he has to play pg).

    While the player development has been normal thus far, I’m afraid that some may take set backs in their course because of the heavy burden cast upon them. I hope that it doesn’t come to that, but it’s a real risk Coach and his staff have to deal with every day. I’ll be tuned in to the game (probably on radio because of work) and I’ll really be pulling for them, but just everyone try to see the big picture no matter the outcome. This is a humble (stress humble), but inspiring begginnings for this Coach and his efforts to put this program back to where it once belonged. It’s going to take a bit more than Brian Nieman playing a few extra minutes to improve the situation. Go Pack!

  5. 82grad 01/12/2007 at 9:11 PM #

    “Also NCSU can win if they get the same free throw stats that UNC had against Virginia earlier. UVA 8-11 UNC 26-41 But of course it all happened to work out that way in the natural process of the game…”

    how is this about the Wake game? jesus christ guys, quit whining about unc in every damn thread.

  6. Sw0rdf1sh 01/13/2007 at 10:36 AM #

    The Wilmington Star News goes out of it’s way to not give NCSU any favors. Occasionally you will see a positive article come out of A.Jones, but typically it’s about the other NC team down here. I just keep the N&0 (and SFN) on speed dial if I want quality NCSU news.

    Today’s Wake game is a great chance for us to pick one up.

    Neiman should be played some, especially if Ferguson can’t keep his intensity and eye on the ball. If I see any half assed attempts at inbounding a ball like against Clemson I’m going to freak.

    Noon time is a good time!

  7. choppack1 01/13/2007 at 11:13 AM #

    Good article today in the Winston Salem Journal by John Delong.

  8. redfred2 01/13/2007 at 11:26 AM #

    Like I’ve said before, and ^^vtpackfan stated so well in that post above, this is an adjustment period not only for the players, but for the coaches as well. With that said, I do believe that both will settle in and improve as the season goes along.

    Right now though, the staff may be guarding a little too much against fatigue and personal fouls becoming a factor late. So much so, that it’s defeating it’s own purpose.

    If you take a look at the final stats from the Clemson game, among the players with any substantial playing time, Nieman not included and Fells fouled out late, but the other five had an average of almost of 2.4, or almost half of their fouls left to give when the game was over. Clemson was not a good FT shooting team coming in, and they shot even worse, under 48 percent as a team, in Raleigh. If your players need a rest late, and it can accomplished with no time running off the clock, while having a better than 50 percent chance of gaining ground on the opponent, then why not foul.

    Clemson also hadn’t shot very well from the outside before that game either, so a few hard fouls earlier could have possibly made the Clemson shooters think twice, on the interior especially, and made their basket shrink back down a little closer to it’s normal size.

    Spilled milk, I know. But I believe that as time goes on, everything will slow and become clearer, just as it will for the players on the court, and the coaching staff will be more in control of their gameday strategies.

  9. Delete-Me 01/13/2007 at 11:55 AM #

    I’d like to see Nieman out there. He hustles, makes some 3s, which we definitely need.

    He’s also been in the right position on offense earlier on in the season, but I don’t think he’s played recently. He played at Virginia, seems like he should still be able to play.

  10. Andy 01/13/2007 at 6:07 PM #

    Also hell yes Va tech

  11. BoKnowsNCS71 01/14/2007 at 4:36 PM #

    GoPAck has the same problem as Ford and GM — they have been around so long — they take the easy path and don’t compete with energy — without energy and innovation — they’re destined to become dinosaurs.

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