Final Poll

'06 Football General NCS Football29

1.  Florida
2.  LSU
3.  Ohio State
4.  Southern Cal
5.  Louisville
6.  Michigan
7.  Wisconsin
8.  Auburn
9.  Boise State
10. Arkansas
10. West Virginia
12. Oklahoma
13. Texas
14. Wake Forest
15. Tennessee
16. Georgia
17. Rutgers
18. California
19. BYU
20. Virginia Tech
21. Notre Dame
22. Penn State
22. Boston College
24. Oregon State
25. South Carolina

Wire to Wire

No, not Ohio State. The SEC went wire to wire as the nation’s toughest football conference – despite what Sagarin’s poll thinks about the Pac 10.

Florida came out and showed what many SEC fans already felt. It’s really tough to put together an impressive looking season coming out of the SEC. Going into the game, the general perception was that Florida was anemic on offense and wouldn’t be able to score enough to keep up with Ohio State’s high octane offense.

Of course, it was Ohio State with the anemic offense. Ohio State only had two drives over 15 yards (that’s right, 15 yards), and one of those drives (25 yards) was against a Florida prevent defense at the end of the first half. Sure having Ted Ginn Jr. out of the game hurt, but he wasn’t the one who won the Heisman, and he wasn’t playing defense.

The Regular Season

So, the regular season works? At the end of the regular season, the playoff proponents remarked about how well the regular season worked and that it gave us the game we wanted – Ohio State versus whoever Ohio State was going to beat. Hell, it almost gave us Ohio State/Michigan.

The reality is that whether you are for a playoff or not, until the BCS conferences start playing more inter-conference games, the regular season only tells you who the conference champions are. We still have no idea how good Ohio State really is. Could they play with USC, unlike Michigan, who they only beat by 3? Could they play against LSU? For that matter, could they play against Louisville, Wake Forest, or Boise State? The only big wins coming out of the Big Ten were OSU over an over-rated Texas team with a 2nd game freshman starter at QB, and Michigan over an over-rated Notre Dame team. However, everyone was willing to proclaim the Buckeyes as far and away the best team in the country this year based on the regular season despite the fact that Ohio State played exactly one team since September that had a winning record.

Boise State

Congrats on a great win to the boys from the blue turf, but let’s not get carried away. The Broncos surprised the Sooners. Yet, at the end of the game, it was clear OU had superior athletes and even Boise State’s coaches realized they couldn’t win in continued overtime. Boise State out-coached, out-played, and certainly out-funned OU. They played their best game versus an OU team that didn’t play up to its abilities. It was a great and well-deserved win for the Boise State program. However, it shouldn’t be viewed as a statement game. Winning in overtime using back-to-back trick plays to defeat a demoralized Big 12 team doesn’t mean they can handle the load of a BCS schedule.

Buying Bear Bryant

Can Alabama football ever return to the level of prominence it faced under Bear Bryant? Realistically, can any team reach that level with today’s scholarship limitations?

There is no doubt that Nick Saban is at least a good coach. On the other hand, there is more than a little doubt as to weather he is worth $32 million in guaranteed money. If Alabama chooses to fire Saban after one year, they’ll owe hi the same $32 million they’ll owe him if he stays all eight. On the other hand, if he chooses to leave after one year, he won’t owe Bama a dime.

While most would agree that Saban did a lot for LSU, it’s also easy to argue that LSU did a lot for Saban. Although Saban was already respected in the coaching community prior to heading to Baton Rouge, it was in Baton Rouge where he was canonized. The NFL came knocking on the door several times while Saban was in Baton Rouge, but one thing is for certain, he wouldn’t have pulled down a $4.0 or 4.5 million per year salary if he’d never coached the Tigers.

Tiger fans are very proud of their program, but it’s not the history of LSU that makes it successful now, its geography as much as anything. If you look at a map of all the BCS programs in the country, LSU is on an island. That island produces the fifth most NFL talent in the country, and that is NOT on a per capita basis. Not only does LSU own a monopoly on the state of Louisiana, but from many parts of Mississippi and Alabama, LSU is also the closest BCS school. Additionally, LSU is right next to Texas, which produces the third most talent in the country right behind California and Florida.

At last count, Alabama was tied for 13th on the list of NFL talent, and the Tide must share the state with Auburn in addition to being fertile ground for Tennessee, Georgia, and LSU. So, Saban will have to recruit nationally at least in part, and that is something that he was less successful at than most people realize while he was at LSU. On the 2003 national title team, only four starters were not from Louisiana, and one of those was less than two hours from Tiger Stadium on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Another lived on the Texas-Louisiana border. One was from Miami, but wasn’t offered by the Florida schools, and the fourth was a professional baseball player who was recruited by Saban during his years at MSU.

Ostensibly Bama hit a home run with the Saban hire. However, questions remain, can Saban win with less talent? Can Saban recruit out of state? How much did this coaching search damage the Saban aura and his credibility?

About StateFans

'StateFansNation' is the shared profile used by any/all of the dozen or so authors that contribute to the blog. You may not always agree with us, but you will have little doubt about where we stand on most issues. Please follow us on Twitter and FaceBook

'06 Football General NCS Football

29 Responses to Final Poll

  1. vtpackfan 01/10/2007 at 4:44 PM #

    wisconsin deserves a higher finish, don’t you think?

  2. Trout 01/10/2007 at 4:45 PM #

    The final Sagarin ratings for the 2006 college football season

    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc06.htm

    Some interesting notes:

    According to Sagarin, the ACC was ranked 4th as a conference, behind the SEC, Big East and Pac 10, and ahead of the Big 10 and Big 12.

    NC State finished the season #75 in the Sagarin ratings, the lowest rating during Amato’s 7 years at NC State. Previous Sagarin finishes were #33 (’05), #40 (’04), #26 (’03), #14 (’02), #43 (’01) and #43 (’00).

    NC State played the 2nd toughest schedule in the ACC, with a SOS of #31. UNC had the toughest SOS in the ACC with a #28 rating. The final Sagarin ratings and SOS for NC State’s 12 opponents:

    App State – 53 (147)
    Akron – 105 (104)
    Southern Miss – 52 (89)
    Boston College – 25 (44)
    Florida State – 33 (39)
    Wake Forest – 27 (46)
    Maryland – 38 (55)
    Virginia – 68 (54)
    Ga Tech – 32 (56)
    Clemson – 29 (59)
    UNC – 97 (28)
    ECU – 67 (76)

  3. Trout 01/10/2007 at 4:51 PM #

    I think Boise State should be thanking the BCS. The BCS isnt perfect, but its certainly better than what we had. For example, if we had the old system in place, here is what would have happened in the bowls:

    Rose Bowl – USC (Pac 10 Champ) vs Ohio State (Big 10 Champ)
    Sugar Bowl – Florida (SEC Champ) vs Notre Dame
    Orange Bowl – Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ) vs LSU (most likely)
    Fiesta Bowl – ???

    Boise State would have been in the Holiday Bowl or the Liberty Bowl.

  4. LSUTigerFan 01/10/2007 at 4:56 PM #

    ^vtpackfan

    That’s a fair point. Wisconsin put together a great record, but they are admittedly very difficult to rank. Their regular season schedule includes only 3 teams that finished with winning records, and they lost one of those games.

    But watching the Arkansas victory was equally unimpressive. Even with an injured Darren McFadden and no passing game, Arkansas actually outgained the Badgers almost two to one in a losing effort.

    So, despite the impressive record, its tough to know if this team is really very good. I personally wouldn’t expect them to beat any of the teams ranked above them, or the two teams ranked below them for that matter.

  5. Dexter 01/10/2007 at 5:04 PM #

    Louisville is way too high. Boise State could habdle Louisville.

  6. LSUTigerFan 01/10/2007 at 5:16 PM #

    ^Trout

    This is the year that I lost faith in the computer polls. My problem had been that I assumed that since they are computers, they are unbiased and indifferent. However, computers don’t take into account things that humans can take into account like injuries, rivalries, bad calls, turnovers, and true strength of competition.

    I also had mistakenly assumed that they had complex algorithms that took into account more data than simply wins and losses, like offensive and defensive statistics for example. Unfortunately, that’s not the case; most of the computer polls use a team’s record or scores exclusively and don’t factor in other stats.

    Ranking the Pac 10 as the toughest conference for most of the season was bad enough, but still ranking Ohio State ahead of Florida at the end of the season is preposterous. (Note the “Predictor” is Sagarin’s original ranking that he puts the most faith in, the other rankings are bastardized versions to meet BCS requirements).

  7. LRM 01/10/2007 at 5:34 PM #

    Arkansas is WAY too high. They lost their last three games and somehow remained in the Top 10 with 4 losses? Perplexing. Albeit, those three losses were to LSU, Florida, and Wisconsin while the fourth was to Southern Cal (all Top 10 teams), but still, how can a four-loss team justify its place in the Top 10?

    It’s way early but Michigan with Henne and Hart back & WV with White and Slaton back look like favorites to me. I like Texas with McCoy, too.

  8. RedTerror29 01/10/2007 at 5:34 PM #

    Two notes about recruiting at Bama:

    Alabama has perhaps the top facilities in the SEC. And they have the money to keep it that way. Facilities are a big deal in recruiting.

    Alabama pretty well owns two fertile football-player producing states: Alabama and Mississippi (even with recent success of Auburn, Alabama towers over the state far more than UNC does here). Saban can still utilize his contacts in Louisiana (although will less success coming from out of state). Alabama is also situated between Texas, Florida, and Georgia, three of the four most productive states for football talent.

    Alabama has the to be as fertile a place to recruit as almost anywhere.

  9. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 01/10/2007 at 5:50 PM #

    The BCS has destroyed the bowl system. As someone mentioned in another post the new system means only one game matters. In the old system you had scenarios where any one of 3 or 4 teams could end up being National Champions. The old system allowed us to enjoy each game knowing what each team would need to do to get the Championship or at least a share of it.

    As it turned out this year the National Championship game was awful and if you managed to watch more than two quarter like me, please understand we will never get those 2 hours back and we should be compensated by the BCS for false advertising.

  10. Cardiff Giant 01/10/2007 at 6:14 PM #

    Wake Forest ranked four spots higher than California is simply crazy.

  11. burnbarn 01/10/2007 at 6:56 PM #

    ^ why?

  12. CaptainCraptacular 01/10/2007 at 7:22 PM #

    *Louisville is way too high. Boise State could habdle Louisville.*

    Louisville is big, fast, athletic, and ha(d) an extremely creative offensive mind leading them. In other words they were Boise State with bigger and faster athletes. You don’t want to give them any credit because they are Louisville, but they were damn good this year. Also, 2 years ago Louisville beat Boise State in the Liberty Bowl. So I would totally disagree with you about the Boise handling them part.

  13. Woof Wolf 01/10/2007 at 8:17 PM #

    I know all of this is voodoo at this point but take a look at what James Howell’s computer thinks about the 2007 preseason ranking. I don’t like the ordering of his top five but the ACC comes out a lot better than the ESPN poll. Of special interest to me is his conference ratings at the bottom of the page. He has the SEC way out front; followed by the PAC10 and then a good ways back the other four in a virtual deadheat.

    http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2007.htm

  14. Cosmo96 01/10/2007 at 8:23 PM #

    Off topic, but congrats to SFN for being nominated for a “Job Award” over at EDSBS. I know it’s an honor just to be nominated…

    “The Job Award

    FOR: The blog that has suffered through its chosen team’s dismal season with the most dignity.

    CRITERIA: Continued engagement in the face of crippling, misery-inducing defeat. A stiff-upper lip and sane reaction to everything crumbling to dust.

    NOMINEES:

    Scalp Em
    Orange 44
    Bruins Nation
    State Fans Nation
    Hey Jenny Slater
    Virginia Fanhouse”

  15. redfred2 01/10/2007 at 8:32 PM #

    t-t-t

    Well said. The “improved” system has taken what was once a wide array of fun bowl games with quirky unknowns attached, and whittled them down to few “hope the computers are right” match ups. It has de-emphasized and shortened the bowl season, and essentially created college football’s version of the NIT with anything other than the BCS games.

  16. StateFans 01/10/2007 at 8:50 PM #

    Cardiff,

    I think that is Jeff’s fault. I think that he inadvertantly left Cal off his ballot.

  17. Woof Wolf 01/10/2007 at 8:55 PM #

    t-t-t & rf2:

    I agree. Why can’t we do it the old way +1. We play the bowl games and then the BCS rankings decide who plays two weeks later for the championship(?).

  18. VaWolf82 01/10/2007 at 9:58 PM #

    The old system allowed us to enjoy each game knowing what each team would need to do to get the Championship or at least a share of it.

    The old bowl system was the worst possible pile of crap imaginable. Some of you have blocked all of the bad matchups produced by the old system….which also left State out of the mix for a good bowl after winning the ACC.

  19. Trout 01/11/2007 at 8:19 AM #

    ^ In the old system, Wake wouldnt have been in the Orange Bowl, that’s for sure. And Florida would have been in the Sugar Bowl, to probably face Notre Dame

  20. choppack1 01/11/2007 at 9:40 AM #

    Yep – it would have been Ohio State – USC in the Rose Bowl, Florida vs. either Notre Dame or Louisville or Michigan in Sugar, Orange would have been Oklahoma vs. Louisville or Notre Dame or Michigan, Fiesta would have probably been LSU vs. Loiusville or Notre Dame or Michigan.

  21. primacyone 01/11/2007 at 1:16 PM #

    Looks to me as there could be justification for playing an easy schedule if you don’t have plans on being in the BCS champoinship game.

    I’ve said this before, but I’ll say it again. Looks to me like we need to hire the AD from Wisconsin. Second to Florida, they apear to have it going on in all directions. They had a great year last year in football and basketball, won the nation title in hockey, had a great year in football this year, and appear to be set for a good year in basketball.

  22. roandaddy 01/11/2007 at 2:31 PM #

    As for Saban.. if you don’t think it took a hit.. look at all the people turning down his OC. Including his old OC.. Jimbo. Jimbo said “no” not b/c of money.. so that means either he sees FSU as a better school or doesn’t say much about Saban. Not to mention, Major Applewhite and USC’s QB coach have said NO to Saban. His recruiting of coaches is off to a rocky start IMHO due to his current toxic reputation in the press.
    As for recruiting talent.. look at the classes he had at LSU and you will see 90% of the players are from LA. To say Saban is a national recruiter is laughable at best.
    Finally.. after Saban left, being the best coach in the US, LSU nose dived.. HARDLY.. Les Miles has the engine humming and you would have never known Saban left. Goes to show that maybe LSU is right… “Saban didn’t make LSU, LSU made Saban.
    Good luck Nick w/the Hicks.

  23. primacyone 01/11/2007 at 3:55 PM #

    Made him $32 Million. I’d be willing to get fired for $32 Million.

  24. RedTerror29 01/11/2007 at 4:20 PM #

    ^^If LSU “made” Saban, then Bama certainly could as well – they’ve had far more success historically. LSU’s been successful because they had talent stockpiled and Les Miles is a good coach. We’ll see if he can keep up the recruiting momentum. I think Saban’ll be ok – almost a third (46) of the ESPN150 are from Alabama or a state bordering it.

  25. VaWolf82 01/11/2007 at 4:22 PM #

    Looks to me as there could be justification for playing an easy schedule if you don’t have plans on being in the BCS champoinship game.

    How so? If you are not going to a BCS bowl, your bowl is based on conference finish.

1 2

Leave a Reply