SFN’s Take: TOB > PJ

SFN has been hearing from a variety of sources that Boston College head man Tom O’Brien has emerged as a serious contender for the NC State job. As you may know, O’Brien has taken some heat from the Eagle faithful for not being able to get BC over the proverbial hump. While we agree that O’Brien may have maxed out what he is able to accomplish in Beantown, we do not believe that his ceiling would necessarily be limited at NC State.

O’Brien is supposedly willing to make a move because Boston is a pro sports town, almost exclusively. BC also has a small alumni base, which has led to good Eagle teams getting subpar bowl bids. The argument is that better bowls would lead to more recruiting momentum, as would a thriving, college-town environment – and ultimately, a chance at more success at NC State.

Of course, you might note that you could say the same thing about Paul Johnson. There is some truth to that. However, we believe that Tom O’Brien has some clear advantages over PJ – (i) BCS conference experience; (ii) has recruited at least some premium athletes; (iii) less potential to be negatively recruited against successfully; and (iv) a stronger staff (with pretty remarkable continuity).

O’Brien is no spring chicken, but young enough (58) to have a good ten year run at NC State. Plus, we already know his likely “floor” – 7-9 win seasons, which would at least get NC State into good bowl games periodically. We also think that it is reasonable to hope for greater success (contention for ACC titles) with a fresh start and a different environment to work in. Is it guaranteed? No. But nobody is going to be a sure thing here. SFN thinks that O’Brien would be a very good choice.

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General NCS Football Tom O'Brien

336 Responses to SFN’s Take: TOB > PJ

  1. choppack1 12/06/2006 at 4:34 PM #

    interesting update on xanga again. According to them, the ball is in Fowler’s thought. Basically, if Fowler hems and haws, we could lose this again. We’ve already had 2 solid asst candidates drop out, he’s quickly painting himself in a corner if he doesn’t pull the trigger and quick.

    If you want contast – look at Cincy. They lost Dantonio AFTER we lost Chuck, but they have already HIRED A HC – and a good one.

    I think Lee likes to leak some names and see how the wind reacts. If he sees too much heat, he w/draws the offer and goes w/ another direction. It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s why we see O’Brien out there….

  2. BladenWolf 12/06/2006 at 4:34 PM #

    CaptainCraptacular –

    Now… I can see the logic with this point – IF the win-loss record consistantly went down each year and bottomed out at say… 6 wins for a season or two. Has it?

    Logical debate is all I’ve been asking for. Not preaching from the hypocritical choir. (good “church attendance record” reference).

    highonlowe –

    So we praise some coaches with theoretical “floors” of 8 and 9 wins and yet we completely dismiss Coker, who’s worst record (besides this years anomaly) is 9-3? He won three out of five Bowls. Clear downward trend?

    WTF?

  3. CaptainCraptacular 12/06/2006 at 4:34 PM #

    Miami 2001 = Great program
    Miami 2006 = Mediocre program who gets turned down by coach of Rutgers.

    I have been a Larry Coker fan for a long time. I like the man and think he’s got integrity. But he’s not the right man for us.

  4. CaptainCraptacular 12/06/2006 at 4:37 PM #

    *So we praise some coaches with theoretical “floors” of 8 and 9 wins and yet we completely dismiss Coker, who’s worst record (besides this years anomaly) is 9-3?*

    This year counts. I don’t believe this year is an anomaly the direction he had things pointed.

  5. class of 74 12/06/2006 at 4:38 PM #

    I was speaking with my business associate, the BC grad, and he says if we want to beat Top 25 calibre competition TOB is not our guy. He’s hovering around .250 against really good teams. BC fans are not bothered if he leaves for us they welcome the opportunity to upgrade according to my friend. I rest my case on TOB, no to Herb in cleats.

  6. HalsHippies 12/06/2006 at 4:40 PM #

    From firetob.com

    TOB All-Time Versus Temple, Rutgers, UConn, I-AA Schools, and any non-BCS program other than BYU or Boise State:
    38 Wins
    5 Losses

    TOB All-Time Versus All Other Schools:
    37 Wins
    39 Losses

    Tom O’Brien all-time against the AP Top 25:
    7 wins
    21 losses

    Tom O’Brien all-time against teams that finished the season in the AP Top 25:
    4 wins
    22 losses

    Tom O’Brien all-time against Miami, Virginia Tech, and Florida State:
    3 win
    15 losses

    TOB All-Time Conference Titles (9 years at BC):
    0

  7. BladenWolf 12/06/2006 at 4:44 PM #

    CaptainCraptacular –

    I can accept your opinion, and can even appreciate your candor regarding Coker’s “direction” in Miami, but I think even when you average this years anomoly in, you still get a 9.8 win season average, don’t you?

    When was the last time we were a 9 win team? How long will it take PJ or TOB to get us to a 9 win season? Just asking some frank questions that need to be asked.

  8. CaptainCraptacular 12/06/2006 at 4:44 PM #

    *TOB All-Time Versus Temple…..*

    Well, that paints a pretty scary picture. yikes.

  9. BladenWolf 12/06/2006 at 4:47 PM #

    I think HalsHippies just hit a slam dunk regarding TOB’s future here in Raleigh.

    Next….?

  10. Cardiff Giant 12/06/2006 at 4:47 PM #

    “Cardiff, how do you know we didn’t contact Leach? Maybe he’s not interested in us, but is interested in Miami. Isn’t the point of using Neinas so that such opinions don’t hit the mainstream?”

    Madwolf, as I noted with my use of the qualifier “apparently,” I don’t know that for certain. I do know that I see the same names over and over, and Leach is never mentioned. I do know that I see Leach linked with Miami, frequently, which indicates some interest on his part in making a move.

    Based on that information, I have extrapolated the following: (a) that Leach is willing to consider making a move, and (b) there has been no interest shown by us. Again, my two cents and only my belief.

    If my guesses are correct, that says volumes about how this process – which is already, based again on what we have heard, showing signs of the slipshod and second rate stuff of the basketball search – is being conducted. And it ain’t good.

    Hopefully, I am completely wrong.

  11. CaptainCraptacular 12/06/2006 at 4:47 PM #

    *When was the last time we were a 9 win team? How long will it take PJ or TOB to get us to a 9 win season? Just asking some frank questions that need to be asked.*

    Bladen I understand your opinion, but I feel you are blinded by the numbers. Just because Coker won 9.8 wins at Miami.. he still *underachieved* with the talent that was there when Davis left and the momentum he had created. Why do you believe that he would win 9 games a season here? If he underachieves and slowly regresses at Miami, he’s going to underachieve here, which means 3 win seasons.

  12. TNCSU 12/06/2006 at 4:48 PM #

    TOB is to this search as Lon Kruger was to the BB search. It’s to deflect attention from the real candidates, IMO.

  13. BladenWolf 12/06/2006 at 4:49 PM #

    And they are?

  14. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 12/06/2006 at 4:50 PM #

    Clearly from the numbers above TOB sucks. If any of you like that record better than Coker’s you have earned your place in the lunatic frindge.

    Why, Why did George O’Leary sign a 10 freakin year deal with Central Florida? He is the best college coach not at a BCS school but he isn’t available. I’m guessing the buyout is awful.

  15. TNCSU 12/06/2006 at 4:53 PM #

    I still think it is probably PJ – and I’m okay with that – I think he will bring a winning attitude – again, all we can do is speculate, though.

  16. dirtystev 12/06/2006 at 4:53 PM #

    Who know what happened to the Jimbo Interview?

  17. CaptainCraptacular 12/06/2006 at 4:54 PM #

    Historically, coaches seem to be judged on what they do with a schools perceived equilibrium level and where they take that level. Miami’s equilibrium level is 1 loss per season. Coker fell below that and is judged as an underachiever. Mack Brown exceeded Carolina’s equilibrium level of 6-7 wins a year, and once he started beating that he was a definite overachiever and considered a great coach. Tom Izzo exceeded Michigan State’s basketball equilibrium level by taking them to four final 4s in 7 years and was considered a great coach because of it. Now MSU’s equilibrium is much higher, so he’s got to work harder to not be perceived as an underachiever.

  18. BladenWolf 12/06/2006 at 4:55 PM #

    TNCSU –

    Your TOB/Lon Kruger analogy assumes that our Athletic Director has something on the ball and has the metality to have a process and candidates that need attention deflection.

    To the contrary…we seem to have no plan and what’s worse…we seem to have no candidates (TOB > PJ).

  19. DiscoStu65 12/06/2006 at 4:55 PM #

    Who know what happened to the Jimbo Interview?

    They canned the interview b/c Lee fowler wanted to go with a proven pro coach, Roman Gabriel.

    RDU Skyhawks!

  20. choppack1 12/06/2006 at 4:55 PM #

    Hal’s – that’s excellent info….And yes, it is downright Sendekian!

    Is that updated w/ this year’s stuff?

  21. Woof Wolf 12/06/2006 at 4:56 PM #

    Based on all the stuff that happened in Miami this year including the 6-6 record, I don’t think Coker is going to get a HC job anywhere this year. I just hope he doesn’t end up as the OC at unx.

  22. tcthdi-tgsf-twhwtnc 12/06/2006 at 4:59 PM #

    “Historically, coaches seem to be judged on what they do with a schools perceived equilibrium level and where they take that level. Miami’s equilibrium level is 1 loss per season.”

    Now reality from Coker’s Miami profile before the season…

    In the 25 years that the University of Miami has been a dominant force in college football, no Hurricanes head coach has won more games in his first five seasons than Larry Coker. Presiding over one of the most successful five-year stretches in Miami football history, Coker quickly earned a reputation as one of college football’s top coaches. He is now in his sixth season as head football coach at the University of Miami.

  23. MadWolf92 12/06/2006 at 5:01 PM #

    Cardiff, so you’re miffed that we made no *apparent* attempt at him. I do note the qualifier, but that makes it seem like you’d be mad if we *did* make an attempt, but didn’t publicize it, and I give you more credit than that.

    I think it more likely that Neinas didn’t completely ignore that Leach was out there, and that Leach probably would see the TT -> State move fairly lateral, especially for a midwest boy. i.e. he’s got the recruiting contacts out there, but not here. Miami, in disrepair though they are, is clearly not a lateral move.

  24. Clarksa 12/06/2006 at 5:02 PM #

    Damn…the reason we aren’t talking about Larry Coker is because it is being widely reported that the decision is down to TOB and PJ!!! You guys are wasting to much time on Coker…geez.

  25. DiscoStu65 12/06/2006 at 5:02 PM #

    Was Roman Gabriel on Neinas’s short list?

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