There is probably no compelling reason to do a GT preview, except for the fact that I started looking at doing one shortly after the FSU game. There are alot of similarities between this year’s GT team and those of the recent past: Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson are back. So are Chan Gailey and Jon Tenuta. So let’s look backwards as well as at this season to get some idea of what we might see on Saturday.
Reggie Ball
Reggie made quite a splash starting as a true freshman. However, I don’t think that he has quite lived up to the hopes of GT fans that were looking for the next Joe Hamilton. But at least for GT fans, the numbers clearly show that Reggie is having his best year as a senior.
The big thing that stands out to me is the improvement in the TD/INT ratio. I’ve always said that Reggie Ball was the type of player that can keep both teams in the game. He is working hard to make a liar out of me.
GT’s Rushing Game
So how has GT fared with the departure of PJ Daniels?
Considering that Tashard Choice is the 3rd leading rusher in the conference…it looks like GT isn’t missing PJ too much.
GT’s Passing Game
The two Johnsons (Calvin and James) rank 1st and 8th in the conference in receiving. However as a team, GT ranks 9th in the conference in passing offense. Calvin gets a lot of well-deserved press coverage when he scorches the opposition, like at VT. But he was no where to be found in the Clemson game. Hopefully State won’t lose track of either Johnson.
NC State’s Rushing Game vs GT
Short and (not-so) sweet…it doesn’t look good. State has never done well on the ground against GT:
GT is currently ranked 3rd in the conference against the run. UVa is ranked 9th in the conference and State managed only 70 net yards on 29 attempts against the Hoos. Anyone that expects State to grind out yardage on the ground against GT better come up with a darn good line of reasoning or you will end up looking pretty foolish.
NC State’s Passing vs GT
State has had a little better luck through the air over the last several years:
This year, the pass defense is once again one of GT’s weaker areas…ranking 9th in the conference.
One key item to remember is that in last year’s game, 120 yards of passing came on two plays…a 40 yard flea flicker for a TD and a 10 yard slant over the middle that Brian Clark took for an additional 70 yards and a TD (with a penalty for diving into the endzone, IIRC.). We’ll come back to this point later.
What Should We Expect from GT?
Let’s start with Tenuta and the GT defense. I expect that they will put 8 or 9 players in the box to accomplish several things:
– Shut down State’s rushing attack.
– Shutdown State’s “east-westâ€? passing game.
– Blitz from any position on the field.
State’s offense and its coordinator looked completely lost against Maryland’s blitzes several weeks ago. If no improvement is made in this area, then it could be a long afternoon in Raleigh.
If I hadn’t watched the first quarter of the VT-GT game, I would have predicted that GT would come out trying to pound out yards on the ground. They still might, but against VT they came out throwing. Both Johnsons burnt the VT secondary and the game was nearly out of reach after the first quarter.
I’m certainly no expert on GT, but the games that I have watched they seem to be calling more running plays for Ball than I remember from the past. In any event, Ball is the 18th best rusher in a 12-team conference. When you throw in how poorly State did at containing the UVA QB last week, it looks like something that the GT coaches should consider.
Does State Have a Chance?
The odds are about the same as what Jim Carrey faced in Dumb and Dumber. Ignoring this for a moment, what does State need to do to have a chance?
1) The defense must pressure Ball while containing him in the pocket.
– If you saw the VT game, Ball still makes poor decisions under pressure. Up big in the first half, Reggie threw interceptions on two consecutive possessions which could have let VT back in the game. However VT could only muster two FG’s and never really threatened GT even though the final score looked somewhat respectable.
– I don’t think that State can accomplish either goal with a four-man rush.
2) The defense must contain Chance. If GT is able to grind out yardage on the ground, State’s defense will likely wear out from being on the field too long. I see no chance for State to stay close in time-of-possession unless the defense can force a lot of punts.
– If you combine points #1 and #2, you quickly reach the conclusion that State must pack alot of defenders close to the line of scrimmage and hope that the secondary can keep up with the Johnsons.
3) Keep track of the Johnsons.
– VT learned the hard way that letting either one run loose in the secondary is a recipe for disaster. See Point #1 for one of the best ways to keep the Johnsons in check.
4) Evans and the offensive line must pick-up GT’s zone blitzes.
– No one should expect Evans to have enough time for a 40 yard fly route to develop. But the line must give Evans enough time to throw 10-15 yards down field and give State’s playmakers a chance to go one-on-one against the GT secondary.
5) The offense has to throw past the line of scrimmage…ie trash the east-west passing game.
– Last year, two big down-field plays gave State 14 points and the lead. State will need to get yardage in big chunks if they are going to have any chance at a win. I hope to see some more 10 yard passes with big runs after the catch.
Final Thoughts
I have never been more upset at State’s coaches that I was in 2003 during the GT game in Atlanta. The defense never blitzed until the 3rd quarter and let a freshman QB gain confidence. The offense kept throwing to RB’s in the flat or a WR screen that required one tackle to be broken or missed just to get back to the line of scrimmage. The coaches certainly shouldn’t take advice from an armchair QB and engineer…but they might want to take some from Einstein:
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results.
