Cowher Johnson? Fisher? Other?

Sorry that we are late on this. We are only bothering to put it up so that we can say that it is up there. Bill Cowher said no to the Wolfpack in public today. However, after the public comments Chris Mortenson commented on Erik Kuselias’ radio show (ESPN) that Cowher to State is still a possibility – not a certain ‘no’ yet.

Honestly, we have no clue if there is anything more to Mortenson’s comments regarding the chance that Cowher could still end up at State; Cowher’s comments certainly didn’t sound like they left much room for interpretation. So, we don’t want to try to talk ourselves into a situation where we try to convince ourselves that Cowher’s press conference was a tactic to get out of the spotlight.

You can take a look at the video of Cowher’s comments by clicking here. Additionally, the reliable Dave Glenn says

There is confirmation today, from both Cowher and university sources, that he is not a candidate for the N.C . State job. As reflected below, this result is the one NCSU officials expected.

If Cowher’s comments were 100% legitimate and the ride with him is over, then we’re pretty perplexed about the way that this has played out from a public relations pespective. It certainly wasn’t the smoothest of moves. One of our friends emailed this afternoon and was fuming. The text of the email went like this:

F’ing Fowler could have done this. Isn’t the whole point of Neinas to KEEP THIS EXACT THING from happening? What does he do? I’ve wanted PJ all along, so that he turned us down is not a big deal to me, but this PR disaster is exactly what we did not need. Now it is a circus and everyone can (and will) point at us and laugh. Why would BC do this to us? How can Neinas let it happen? I never would have guessed that BC would publically “Calipari” us. I love these guys who spend years talking about how they would take our job, only to publically humiliate us when it is offered to them.

We are sure that the search has been simultaneously running different parallel tracks in private, but now the public scrutiny will turn to Navy’s Paul Johnson. Earlier in the week Johnson was widely speculated by many to be a strong #2 after Coach Cowher. Did he remain the lead horse as NC State has analyzed other candidates? We don’t know. But we definitely hope that those close to the search have kept their eyes wide open and given all candidates legitimate consideration. We voiced our thoughts in this entry.

Earlier today we highlighted some comments by Steve Logan regarding Paul Johnson that some readers viewed as concerning. If we had to voice one other major concern then it would definitely be the composition of Johnson’s unimpressive staff. Take a look at these guys and you will understand our point.

Coach Johnson still has the Army/Navy game to coach this weekend, so we would not expect much to get done with him prior to the conclusion of that game therefore giving Lee Fowler and the search committee time to contemplate alternative options. Many people out there are speculating on some of these options and we just don’t have enough concrete information to do anything other than speculate as well.

The following are some random comments related to the search:

* Like Cowher, Norm Chow and David Cutcliffe both commented publicly today that they have not been contacted by NC State. Of course they haven’t. Nobody is going to be contacted by NC State until a deal is on its way to being struck. This is one of the primary purposes of hiring a consultant/search firm to help navigate the process.

* LSU’s Jimbo Fisher may have much more upside than Paul Johnson, but he could also have more downside. Fisher could easily be the next Mark Richt or Bobby Petrino; then again, he could end up being David Cutcliffe at Ole Miss.

* Where there is the greatest risk comes the greatest opportunity for big rewards. This is why Athletics Directors are paid the big bucks to make these types decisions. One can only hope that their AD has been diligent in making connections and studying coaches through the years prior to being thrown into such a position. Rumor is that it is hard to stay on top of your job eating at Jimmy V’s Steakhouse every night, coming into the office at 10am every day, or hanging out on Lake Gaston on the weekends.

* If you are an ESPN INsider then you will see some nice comments about many of the names mentioned as potential candidates for the State job in this entry highlighting the country’s Top 10 hottest assistant coaches. We will wet your whistle with the comments that they shared about the #1 assistant, Jimbo Fisher:

His name was circulated for the FSU offensive coordinator vacancy, but word is he is poised to get his own program to run. Fisher has coached under both Terry Bowden and Nick Saban. Players love him, and he’s regarded within the coaching community as a great play-caller. Has had the tag as the hot assistant for a while after consistently putting up big numbers with the Tigers’ offense. If Cincy wants an offensive guy, Fisher might be it.

* Someone made a good comment to us today – “If you be supportive of hiring Jim Grobe, then why wouldn’t support Paul Johnson”.

* Evidently, Dr. Jerry Punch has made supportive comments of former Miami coach Larry Coker in public and private. Any time that a Miami-related coach is mentioned then you can bet that Steve Logan’s name will not be far away. Logan has very strong ties with many of Miami’s coaches over the last 20 years.

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169 Responses to Cowher Johnson? Fisher? Other?

  1. c6by66 11/30/2006 at 10:54 AM #

    OK…Let’s see if I understand all the comments….

    1. The BIG$$ donor$ were ready to pony up and make BC a deal…but it never got off the ground…

    2. FUF (ask IKB) has “talked” to the CO Consultant, Neinas….maybe he left a voicemail for him. There is NO contract with Neinas…which means that either we are NOT doing anything or we are waiting for the equivalent of Butch Davis to throw his hat into the ring…

    3. I REALLY thought that when FUF shut up, that he had a strict agenda, including when he could potty, from the BOT and Oblinger…obviously NOT….

    4. WHY OH WHY DID WE NOT FIRE THIS IMBICILE FIRST…or keep him for a few months and then let the NEW AD HIRE OUR COACH….Talk about Shooting yourselves in BOTH FEET….FUF can NOT even handle sending our WP Christmas Cards…much less find and hire a HFBC…

    5. I do NOT care if Butch Davis came over and PAID US to coach or if his equivalent pops up out of the woodwork…the problem appears to be that FUF has pictures or other seamy personal info on some high Admin folks…what else could there be? Why did we NOT keep CTC and FIRE FUF….what a FIASCO…

    Me thinks that we will NOT have a coach until after the New Year and it will be someone who has been cast off by FSU (that Fayetteville State University)…

    WOE IS ME…FUF is destroying the enthusiasm that Lowe is bringing to the University…

    Time to start emailing the BOT, Mr. Murphy, Oblinger, WPC, etc….

    And, by the way, Boys and Girls, based on what I have just read and pondered….we could do a LOT WORSE than Paul Johnson…unfortunately some Pack Backers think that we have to OUTSHINE the potential at UNX…Johnson is a GREAT COACH who will restore a winning record…HOWEVER, the may be the Herb Sendek of Football….How often do we get a Roman Gabriel or a Phillip Rivers…seems about 40 YEARS apart…so winning a few games now and then would be a real treat.

    Those of you that keep living in Fantasy Land about Bill Cowher….I think he is a Great Coach, A Loyal Wolfpacker, a Prince of a fellow…but he hath NO NCAA Experience…No ADMIN Background (FUF’s replacment…however, even Al Gore would do better than FUF)…so WHY PRAY TELL…is he our salvation….I could, and should, make comments about CTC and why he should have been the AD….

    GO PACK…but the UNX bloggers who pollute this site are going to have a field day….

    I think we need to establish a school of journalism and therefore start our own community of media…it is the UNX media that is bubbling over Butch Davis’ “lack of success in the NFL will make his a GREAT NCAA Coach…another Lou Holtz…”

    AND it was this same babbling breed that said, “Lowe is destined to FAILURE in the NCAA since he was a failure as a HC in the NBA…”

    LORDY, LORDY…there ain’t going to be much Wolfpack cheer under my Christmas tree this year…

  2. gsopackbacker 11/30/2006 at 10:56 AM #

    I have yet to hear this, but is anyone comparing Paul Johnson to Jim Tressel? While I don’t know the details, I was (and still am) surprised that OSU hired a coach from a non-D1 school. Checking the record, Tressel was 2-8-1 against the likes of Deleware, Furman, Western Illinois, and Stephen F. Austin. Of course, this is somewhat tongue in cheek, but doesn’t the success of Tressel at OSU completely blow out of the water the requirements put forth by PartialQualifier above. Here is Tressel’s record.

    Tressel`s Career Record School Year W L T Pct. Postseason (round)
    1986 Youngstown State 2 9 0 .182
    1987 Youngstown State 8 4 0 .667 Playoffs (1)
    1988 Youngstown State 4 7 0 .364
    1989 Youngstown State 9 4 0 .692 Playoffs (2)
    1990 Youngstown State 11 1 0 .917 Playoffs (1)
    1991 Youngstown State 12 3 0 .800 Champions
    1992 Youngstown State 11 3 1 .767 Runners-up
    1993 Youngstown State 13 2 0 .867 Champions
    1994 Youngstown State 14 0 1 .967 Champions
    1995 Youngstown State 3 8 0 .273
    1996 Youngstown State 8 3 0 .727
    1997 Youngstown State 13 2 0 .867 Champions
    1998 Youngstown State 6 5 0 .545
    1999 Youngstown State 12 3 0 .800 Runners-up
    2000 Youngstown State 9 3 0 .750 Playoffs (1)
    2001 Ohio State 7 5 0 .583 Outback Bowl
    2002 Ohio State 14 0 0 1.000 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Nat. Champions)
    2003 Ohio State 11 2 0 .846 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
    2004 Ohio State 8 4 0 .666 The Mastercard Alamo Bowl
    2005 Ohio State 10 2 0 .833 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
    Totals 185 70 2 .725

  3. choppack1 11/30/2006 at 11:05 AM #

    I was going to send this to Statefans – but couldn’t find an e-mail address to send it to…

    Just Some Data to Consider When Evaluating Coaching Candidates

    Apparently, amongst the fanbase at least, there appears to be 3 desireable candidates. Paul Johnson, HC at Navy, Jimbo Fischer and Norm Chow. This leads us to that stirring debate – should you hire a very qualified assistant who has had huge success at the big time level – whether it’s in the SEC, ACC, Big 10 or NFL or should one hire a coach with solid HC experience, but maybe less experience at a big time program?

    There are certainly rational arguments to be made for all 3 candidates, but I decided to do a little research. I looked at the 44 coaches who have coached at least a season for the current ACC schools since 1986. I ranked them 1 to 3. 1 being a failure, 2 being fired, but have mixed success or 3 having a relatively successfull career. (Basically, if you were 3, you left the school on your own terms.)

    Of the 45 coaches, 21 were what I’d call lifetime assistants. A couple of asteriks should be noted – Torbush coached for 1 year at La Tech (he was 3-8) – so I basically considered him an assistant. Also, if memory serves correct Bunting coached a small college for a couple of years before becoming a fixture as an assistant on NFL staffs.

    The other 23 would be considered coaches who had decent head coaching experience.

    The results were pretty startling. Coaches with previous head-coaching experience have a success rate of 69.5% in the ACC, with a very low failure rate of 17.3%.

    The coaches who would have the label of “assistant coaching” candidates had a success rate of just 33.3%. On the other hand, the failure rate for these coaches was 52.3%.

    When you look at this # as a pass/fail proposition and count the 2s as “fail” (remember, these guys were fired or in Roofs case, probably should be) – the non-success rate for the assistants is 66.6% as compared to just 30.4% for those with decent Head-coaching experience.

    You don’t have to be a math major to see the strong correlation here. Head coach hires with previous head-coaching experience are more than twice as likely to succeed, and are much less likely to fail.

    Also, another interesting point. 2 of the HC hires were outright stupid – BC hired a coach – Jack Bicknell Jr. – who had a total of 1 winning season at Maine. Duke hired Steve Sloan – in spite of never having a winning season in his previous gig at Ole Miss. So, if you take away those ridiculous hires, you have a success rate of 76%!

    This doesn’t mean that you can’t be successful when you hire the assistant coach to lead your program. 7 out of the 21 candidates were successful. However, you shouldn’t be surprised if they fail. Actually, quite the opposite, you should be surprised if they succeed.

    Here’s the data:

    Team Coach Prev Poss Success
    Duke Steve Sloan HC 1
    Steve Spurrier HC 3
    Barry Wilson Asst 1
    Fred Goldsmith HC 2
    Carl Franks Asst 1
    Ted Roof Asst 1
    GaTech Bill Curry Asst 3
    Bobby Ross HC 3
    Bill Lewis HC 1
    George O’Leary Asst 3
    Chan Gailey HC 3
    Clemson Danny Ford Asst 3
    Ken Hatfield HC 2
    Tommy West Asst 1
    Tommy Bowden HC 3
    Maryland Bobby Ross HC 3
    Joe Krivak Asst 1
    Mark Duffner HC 1
    Ron Vanderlin Asst 1
    Ralph Friedgen Asst 3
    Florida State Bobby Bownden HC 3
    UNC-Ch Dick Crum HC 2
    Mack Brown HC 3
    Carl Torbush Asst 1
    John Bunting Asst 1
    NC State Dick Sheridan HC 3
    Mike O’Cain Asst 2
    Chuck Amato Asst 2
    Wake Forest Al Groh Asst 1
    Bill Dooley HC 3
    Jim Caldwell Asst 1
    Jim Grobe HC 3
    Uva George Welsh HC 3
    Al Groh HC 3
    BC Jack Bicknell Sr HC 1
    Tom Coughlin Asst 3
    Dan Henning Asst 1
    Tom O’Brien Asst 3
    Miami Jimmy Johnson HC 3
    Dennis Erickson HC 3
    Butch Davis Asst 3
    Larry Coker Asst 2
    Va Tech Bill Dooley HC 3
    Frank Beamer HC 3

  4. DIXIE Wolf 11/30/2006 at 11:10 AM #

    PJ is the next Steve Spurrier. Get him now.

  5. RTPMedic 11/30/2006 at 11:13 AM #

    I wouldn’t consider record-setting offensive numbers to be “Sendek-like football.”

    Are you really speaking of Navy? Sure they were first in rushing, but DEAD LAST in passing. their total offense was only 89 ypg more than ours.

    And no, I would not consider “3 yds in a cloud of dust” exciting football…its the Princeton offense on grass.

  6. shellnc 11/30/2006 at 11:15 AM #

    >>>F’ing Fowler could have done this. Isn’t the whole point of Neinas to KEEP THIS EXACT THING from happening? What does he do? I’ve wanted PJ all along, Yada, yada, yada.

  7. shellnc 11/30/2006 at 11:17 AM #

    ^
    The doctor called and said take to xanax and call him in the morning.

  8. for2n8son 11/30/2006 at 11:24 AM #

    ‘And no, I would not consider “3 yds in a cloud of dust” exciting football…its the Princeton offense on grass.’

    Isn’t that what Cowher is known for? Besides, a twenty or thirty yard romp through the middle is plenty exciting. You just need a couple of guys to open a hole for you and one more to block downfield.
    Too much of our passing was comming on third and long.

  9. Dan 11/30/2006 at 11:24 AM #

    I hate to do this, but…here is a comment of mine from April 26, 2006 after the Beilien disaster:

    http://www.statefansnation.com/index.php/archives/2006/04/26/espn-lavin-turns-down-nc-state/#comment-57508

    “Say, for some unforeseen reason, Chuck leaves. Does anyone want Fowler leading that search?”

    We all know he sucked then. There is absolutely NO REASON he is still the AD.

  10. RAWFS 11/30/2006 at 11:26 AM #

    Fowler makes you need Xanax.

  11. partialqualifier 11/30/2006 at 11:26 AM #

    I completely understand the argument for Tressel/Johnson. Dont you think it is odd that Tressel, who was pummelled by Johnson, went to Ohio St and Johnson went to Navy?

    If you are going to tell me your main argument for Johnson is that he beat Tressel (which I have seen you mention at least twice), then please explain why he could only parlay that into the gig at Navy. Why,if he is a better coach than Jim Tressel, is he at Navy beating up on Air Force, the Coast Guard, Marines, National Guard, etc. while Tressel is beating Michigan, Mich. St, Texas, etc.? That doesnt make sense. Do you have any idea how many coaches have been hired nationally in the last 6 years? Why has no one hired him? Furthermore, look carefully at the job searches currently underway in the NCAA right now. Alabama, Miami, Arizona St., Cincinnatti, & NC State. Other than being about the 20th guy listed on Alabama’s list, we are the only school who even has him listed as a candidate!! If he is Mr. World-Class Better Than Jim Tressel Football Coach, why is no one else interested in him at all? Maybe it is the same reason he has spent his life at Ga Southern & Navy.

  12. tooyoungtoremember 11/30/2006 at 11:27 AM #

    Except if you consider that his bosses are happy with the job he’s doing or too lazy to make a change. If you ask me, the problem is with the school’s administration allowing the idiocy in the athletic department to continue. Bring back Dr. Fox!

  13. partialqualifier 11/30/2006 at 11:29 AM #

    Did I see PJ is the next Steve Spurrier?

    OMG!

    I am starting to see where Fowler gets this “Lunatic Fringe” thing.

  14. DIXIE Wolf 11/30/2006 at 11:34 AM #

    You sure did PQ. He’s a “ball coach” and “eats, sleeps, and shits” the game of football. Go back and look @ what hed did while running the O @ Hawaii. You probably think we still have a shot @ BC.

  15. choppack1 11/30/2006 at 11:35 AM #

    Fox hired Fowler…

    Dan – I can’t explain why AD’s haven’t hired PJ – you’d have to ask them. Probably because they are risk adverse. I will say that statistically, it’s less of a risk to hire PJ than it is to hire Fisher or Chow – at NC State anyway. I imagine part of the problem is that there are a lot of ADs like Lee Fowler out there and a lot of powerful alums who say, “I’m not going to give 50K a year to see us run the ball 45 times.”

    Of course, you could say the same about Norm Chow or Sidney Lowe or anyone else. “If you were good, we wouldn’t be able to get you.”

  16. tooyoungtoremember 11/30/2006 at 11:38 AM #

    Fox hired Fowler, but probably would have given him the axe after how he handled the basketball HC search.

  17. Dan 11/30/2006 at 11:40 AM #

    “it’s less of a risk to hire PJ than it is to hire Fisher or Chow ”

    We know Chow and Fisher can compete in the BCS leagues. We know their systems work in the big leagues. We know that Fisher can recruit top level talent. We know what kind of connections these guys have in terms of hiring a staff.

    None of that is a known with PJ. PJ is the biggest unknown in this whole thing. PJ is by far the biggest unknown and biggest risk. People that aruge for him assert that not knowing even what offense he will run is a PLUS!!??

  18. partialqualifier 11/30/2006 at 11:42 AM #

    Well said Dan

  19. pack7483 11/30/2006 at 11:42 AM #

    If you had read this link:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102701647.html

    You would realize that we would NOT “run the ball 45 times per game” if PJ were HC.

  20. packbackr04 11/30/2006 at 11:47 AM #

    i am really excited about the possibility of Nutt From Arkansas. I love to run the ball and we have great backs. they can call it slow and boring in Hogland arkansas but i will take it any day!
    also , just to throw it out there, how about jerry moore from ASU??? i know its D1AA, but they are defending natnl champs and are always stacked with quality athletes and students. just sayin is all

  21. DIXIE Wolf 11/30/2006 at 11:47 AM #

    I’m sure that AB and TB would love to tighten up the chin strap for PJ…

  22. pack7483 11/30/2006 at 11:50 AM #

    Jerry Moore? no. too old.

  23. partialqualifier 11/30/2006 at 11:51 AM #

    I will admit there is a slightly….and I mean slightly…less risk involved with Johnson. He will have a good D and play disciplined football and run it 45 times. We will play close to the good teams and when we have more talent we will win. The problem is we will have more talent only twice a year in the ACC….vs Duke & Wake Forest. We will go 7-5, 6-6, 5-7 most years….and once a decade the stars will align just right and we may bust out a 8 or 9 win season and compete for the ACC.

    You just gotta ask urself….is that what you want in a coach? If it is, then by all means go for Johnson. He will be Herb Sendek all over again….steady, sloid, consistant….but never great. If that’s what you want….fine. That is your perrogative. But dont try and say that he is the next Steve Spurrier or say that he is better than Jim Tressel or promise he will take State to all new levels, because it will NOT happen.

  24. TNCSU 11/30/2006 at 11:52 AM #

    Chow and Fisher have never competed in the BCS leagues as a HEAD COACH. Saying someone will be a good head coach because they are a good coordinator is like saying a good ship driver makes a good Commanding Officer. I enjoy the heck out of these what-if’s but I think choppack1’s post was BY FAR the most telling. Give me a guy that been in charge – plus, Academy coach’s have tended to do well at other schools. Welsh, Ross, Coach K, etc.

    And – truth be told – WINNING is what matters. Cowher is a run-oriented coach, also. If Sendek had actually won an ACC title (and/or a couple of Final Fours) we wouldn’t have complained about any style of offense – although you have to admit a bunch of dunks is fun to watch! Again, PJ has proven he adapts to his personnel – that’s what a Head Coach does. Not saying he’s the MAN, but let’s let the AD and everyone do their job. Also, I’m not on the LF bashing bandwagon either – I think he got the right guy with Sidney Lowe!

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