Lots of football across the country watch today. But, of course we are going to focus on the Wolfpack’s key Atlantic Division battle with the Maryland Terrapins.
Several of the writers here enjoy discussing meaningful stats or data analysis like the Rule of 24 and 50. (Combining facts along with making fun of the delusionally optimistic is another area that I enjoy writing about.) So it should come as no surprise when I tell you that I went looking to see if there was anything worth saying from the wonderful world of numbers about this weekend’s game against Maryland.
The only time I saw Maryland play this year was when they were getting waxed by West Virginia (and I soon lost interest). My only other data point came from talking to several UVa fans who were lamenting the 4th quarter collapse by the Hoos to the Terps this past weekend. I say all of this as a disclaimer and acknowledgement that there could easily be meaningful things about the Terps that I wasn’t able to find solely from their stats.
For those that missed the link to nearly every stat worth knowing, let me give it to you one last time. So starting at the source for all statistical knowledge and using my superior cut and paste skills:
– I moved the numbers from State and Maryland into one table
– Divided the stats into offense, defense, and special teams
– Threw in Sagarin rankings for kicks (and for Mr.O)
– And came up with this:
If any disinterested fan looked these numbers over, they would probably conclude that:
– Maryland has a very slight edge in most offensive and special team stats
– State has a very slight edge in most defensive stats
– The only significant difference between the two team’s stats lies in tackles for loss where State has a significant edge (43 TFL for -283 yards vs Maryland’s 29 TFL for -85 yards)
The ultimate conclusion from this disinterested fan would probably be that Saturday’s noon game would pit two average/below average teams in what should be a pretty even contest. Then of course they might throw in the oft-repeated phrase about the winner of the turnover battle probably winning the game. (BTW, this highly interested fan would also draw those same conclusions.)
State fans would probably scream that I should go to the trouble of throwing out the offensive stats from the first three games and only use the games that Evans has played in. However, once you realize that State’s offense, even with Evans, is not exactly running on high-octane…then you should also realize that any improvement in the numbers would not be enough to substantially change the opinions reached with the original table.
However, I did find one table that proved to be a source of encouragement as well as a source of amusement:
Items of Interest and Hilarity
– Maryland’s SOS is substantially lower than State’s. Thus providing hope to State fans that even though the key stats are roughly even with Maryland…that Maryland’s stats are somewhat inflated based on their weaker schedule. (Let me caution against rampant enthusiasm until after the final horn. State has proven over and over through the last few years to be capable of “givingâ€? the game away to far worse opponents than Maryland will pose this Saturday.)
– Miami sitting with a Sagarin ranking of 63 half way through the year has to make everyone outside the city limits of Miami laugh at least a little.
– Note that UNC’s “world-class SOS” actually ranks lower than State’s at the half-way point of the season. No matter how the final SOS numbers work out…State fans can always point out that having to play UNC worked against State’s SOS while increasing UNC’s.
– BJD95 has mentioned several times how weak the Coastal Division is this year. The Sagarin rankings illustrate this disparity quite well.
CONCLUSIONS
There’s nothing earth-shattering from me this week. State’s offense is no longer listed under “futile� or “one-dimensional� in the dictionary…and that’s a very good thing. However, the offense has a long way to go before defensive coordinators are going to lose vast quantities of sleep. Based on the last three games, I would tend to argue that opposing defensives should stay away from man coverage and make sure that the linebackers play close to the LOS to support the run and provide immediate pressure on passes behind the LOS.
It would be easy to argue that State never recovered from Andre Brown’s fumble at the end of the first half. However, that conclusion might be too simplistic. The fumble cost two points and loss of possession. A defense that has a tendency towards giving up long drives and big plays had alot to do with the backward slide at the end of the first half.
Bottom line: State’s defense still troubles me. But, let’s see how they perform against an offense that managed only 274 yards against MTSU and 275 yards against FIU.
