I will lay out my bias up-front – I am a playoff guy. For reference, see my post from last December outlining what I believe to be a truly workable playoff system. This post – which I have been kicking around in my head for weeks – is designed to convince you why every fan of a power conference team should be wary of the current system. And why the ensuing “race to the bottom” that I predict could kill the goose that lays the proverbial golden eggs.
As you have no doubt noticed, college football polls are based largely inertia – not science, or even informed opinion. And the college football powers that be have stupidly continued to increase their influence, while diminishing (flawed, but still better) computer formulas that consider things like, say, who you beat. And whether you load up with seven or even eight home games. See the home cooking, cupcake-heavy OOC slates of Virginia Tech and Auburn (despite being burned by such a schedule when the formula gave more weight to computers). As I noted when the 12th game was added to the schedule, home games (or de-facto home games at “neutral” sites) should have been capped at 7. Watch for this to spread like wildfire as teams realize the revenue and record-padding potential, while greatly diluting September football (as SFN’s own TigerFan has already noted the past 2 weeks of this season). At least VT lost today, and won’t skate through a very weak 2006 ACC and into the national title picture. It would have been a travesty for an unbeaten Virginia Tech to be in the title game ahead of a one-loss team like LSU or the loser of Ohio State/Michigan.
But speaking of potential/likely travesties, the West Virginia Mountaineers lurk. Their “shining example” will likely lead to numerous copycats, all with the potential to destroy (or at least damage) college football as a spectator sport. Despite their consensus Top Ten status, you haven’t seen much of WVU on national TV – at least in prominent time slots. Wonder why? Check out this ridiculous excuse for a schedule. Note the two games against ranked teams, and one of those two (Rutgers) is only ranked due to their similar creampuff schedule (5 OOC games, only 2 against BCS opponents – perpetually futile UNC and Illinois). Despite playing in by far the weakest BCS conference, the Mountaineers’ best nonconference opponent is Maryland, which finished 5-6 in 2005, and looks even worse this year. It was also at home, of course.
So, what is the WVU formula? Instead of Fresno State’s “we’ll play anybody, anywhere” pledge, play nobody. Compile a nice 9 or 10-win season, so that (thanks to our old friend, inertia) you start the following season ranked. Maybe even in the Top 10 or Top 15. Then, continue to play nobody, so you climb slowly up the rankings as genuinely good teams lose to tougher competition. Finally, win the one legitimate game on the schedule you can’t really avoid (Louisville), and boom – you’re playing for the national championship. All of the tough 1-loss teams from the toughest conferences play meaningless exhibitions, while you play your second legitimate game for all the marbles. Could you imagine an NFL team playing only one game vs. teams other than, say, the Raiders, Titans, and 49ers – and then the Super Bowl? Unthinkable, but college football could see it this year. Because it wouldn’t be “fair” to rank a team with the loss ahead of an unbeaten.
Naturally, if and when this plays out, other BCS schools will adopt the same model, and further weaken the football product available for television. As the NBA has shown us, with weaker product comes weaker interest and ratings. But let there be no doubt – this is a race to the bottom that schools in the true power conferences can never win. It’s simply impossible for a Big Ten or SEC school to “out West Virginia West Virginia” – because their conference games will always be tougher. And the bogus system in place will continue to reward timidity, at the expense of those who compete on the highest level. Conference title games – which are good for the sport, fans, and revenues – will continue to place yet another hurdle in front of deserving national contenders. More risk for little reward.
The power conferences would dominate a 16-team playoff. And they wouldn’t have to worry about a September loss (or an early December one in a thrilling conference title game, a current risk that a West Virginia or Notre Dame never has to face) eliminating them from the championship picture becuase it’s so easy for a team like WVU in 2006 to not go undefeated. But don’t be surprised when systematic inertia keeps that from happening – at least not until college presidents face the specter of falling revenue. By then, it could be too late.
Late Notes:
Wanted to add some articles that are related to this and are definitely worth chronicling:
* ESPN has this article about scheduling and playoffs that is just fantastic.
