RPI Update

General NCS Basketball21

Well, that was ugly! A home loss drops State’s RPI ranking back nine places. In all likelihood, it will take winning straight through Saturday at the ACCT just to make up the ground lost in last night’s debacle. State’s record now stands at 0-4 vs the Top-25 but is still 4-4 against the Top-50 because Seton Hall has fallen down to #52.

SEASON
SUMMARY

21-6 (10-4)

 

WINS

LOSSES

 

Top

 

 

1

Duke

 

25

 

 

10

Iowa

 

 

 

 

15

UNC (twice)

 

26-

31

G. 
Washington

 

 

 

50

39

Boston College

 

 

 

 

40

Alabama

 

 

 

 

48

Maryland

 

 

 

51-

6-1

 

52

Seton Hall

 

100

 

 

 

 

 101-

3-1

 

139

Georgia Tech

200

 

 

 

 

201+

8-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m certainly not going to go through all of the combinations, but State is still in good shape in the race for second. A State win on Saturday would pretty much lock BC into fourth place. On the other hand, a BC win on Saturday greatly increases the chances of a three-way tie for second.

THE RACE FOR
SECOND

NC State

UNC

BC

(10-4)

(9-4)

(8-5)

BC (H)

UMd (H)

NC State (A)

——

UVa (H)

WF (H)

WF (A)

Duke (A)

VT (H)

CONFERENCE UPDATE

HISTORICAL
BUBBLE TRENDS

 

 

NCAAT

RPI

TEAM

Status

1

Duke

 

15

North Carolina

IN

26

NC State

 

39

Boston College

 

48

Maryland

 

58

Florida State

Bubble

59

Virginia

 

69

Miami

 

75

Clemson

 

104

Wake Forest

OUT

121

Virginia Tech

142

Georgia Tech

 

The subjective polls like BC a lot more than objective ones. They are technically on the bubble since several BCS schools have been left out with RPI rank of 39. Don’t forget, they still only have one win against a Top-50 team…in Chapel Hill.

Roy continues to make his push for COY. A win at Duke would clinch it.

Maryland’s tailspin continues and every game makes it seem less likely that Gary will be able to pull out before they crash and burn.

FSU continues their upward climb. In years past, it has always seemed like FSU has gotten a big win or two (usually at home), but never put a good string of wins together. This year just might turn out to be different.

UVa made up some ground with a home win over BC. The subjective value of that win may be even more important…especially if they can put together several more to go with it.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball

21 Responses to RPI Update

  1. class of '74 02/23/2006 at 10:09 AM #

    If we lose to BC could we fall to bubble status?

  2. Trout 02/23/2006 at 10:13 AM #

    The technical race for 2nd may still be on, but in reality, NC State is, at best, the 3rd best team in the ACC this year.

    VaWolf: What is amazing to me is that losing to UNC at home hurts more than the loss at GT, when GT was 100+ RPI. Dont you think the home court loss factor is a bit high in the RPI formula (although, we deserve to fall 9 spots after last nights performance)

  3. Mr O 02/23/2006 at 10:36 AM #

    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0506.htm

    The sagarin has UNC at #11 and NC State at #14.

  4. Jim 02/23/2006 at 11:27 AM #

    For his own good, Herb needs to figure out a way to play Duke in the ACC semis. Getting drilled by them would be a lot more palatable to a fan base that is already gathering pitchforks. (To mix metaphors).

  5. Jim 02/23/2006 at 12:23 PM #

    In fact, instead of watching us play UNC in the ACC semis, I think I will do something I would find more enjoyable, like shooting myself in the balls with a nail gun.

  6. VaWolf82 02/23/2006 at 12:34 PM #

    What is amazing to me is that losing to UNC at home hurts more than the loss at GT, when GT was 100+ RPI.

    You have to remember that a team’s ranking is based on all of the teams around them. If they are closely bunched, then one win or loss will make a larger change in the rankings than you would “expect”. I don’t have the RPI values before the game, but here is today’s Top-30.

    http://www.statefansnation.com/images/RPI23.jpg

    The graph illustrates that sometimes it doesn’t take much to move up or down very quickly. The graph reminds me of a NASCAR race….what position you are in doesn’t necessarily tell you how close you are to the leader…or to the next position.

  7. Alpha Wolf 02/23/2006 at 12:34 PM #

    Until this team shows grit and determination, their downward spiral will continue.

    What happened to the team that beat BC and GW? Did it leave for the offseason with three minutes left in Chapel Hill?

    I am shocked at this result, not so much by the loss but by the apoplexy that has infected this team.

  8. VaWolf82 02/23/2006 at 12:37 PM #

    If we lose to BC could we fall to bubble status?

    Probably not, but you could probably kiss any chance at a four seed goodbye.

  9. VaWolf82 02/23/2006 at 12:40 PM #

    What happened to the team that beat BC and GW?

    To fill out a missing person’s report you have to say how long they have been missing. Looking for the team you mentioned might qualify for an episode of “Cold Case”.

  10. class of '74 02/23/2006 at 12:41 PM #

    ^The only determination they are showing is they are determined to drive us crazy with their on again off again play. If we lose to BC in a similar fashion as was displayed last night then Jim has it right. Pass the nail gun please.

  11. Fish 02/23/2006 at 2:32 PM #

    I have said all along this team is maybe Top 50. It sure as hell is not worthy of a Top 5 seed and I do not think we have to worry about that. The downward spiral started after the GW victory and is accelerating. You can count on one or two more league losses and quick exits from the tourneys.

    This is your typical Sendek team that has achieved an unusual high number of victories because of a very weak league and the ability to win 3-4 close games that we are so accustomed to losing. Just imagine if Clemson would have made a free throw or the UVA desperation would have gone in. This team would have been staring down the same old barrel.

    In truth, you can only mask a pile of shit for so long!!

  12. BJD95 02/23/2006 at 2:50 PM #

    Jim is in rare form today. Good stuff. Unfortunately, the only way I see to avoid a potential semifinal matchup with UNC is for BC to beat us this weekend.

    You can see from the dropoff – we can beat teams 26-50 pretty regularly, but not the top dogs. And that’s a problem for Sendek – being consistently “pretty good.” It may mean always making the NCAAT, and regularly making the ACCT semis and finals, but NEVER winning titles or making thrilling, deep NCAAT runs.

    Would it be fun to go through life always having “pretty good” days, but with no real joy or exhiliration?

  13. gowoofpack 02/23/2006 at 2:59 PM #

    In fact, instead of watching us play UNC in the ACC semis, I think I will do something I would find more enjoyable, like shooting myself in the balls with a nail gun.

    LOL!!!!

  14. Jim 02/23/2006 at 4:49 PM #

    I’ll be here all week. Don’t forget to tip your waitress.

  15. Cardiac95 02/23/2006 at 5:41 PM #

    If we lose to BC could we fall to bubble status?

    A home loss to BC could very easily vault us out of the Top 25 Polls….which definitely becomes bubble territory.

  16. BJD95 02/23/2006 at 6:38 PM #

    I don’t think so. I think the farthest we could fall would be to a 6/7 seed. There just aren’t better teams to take our place.

  17. class of '74 02/24/2006 at 6:26 AM #

    ^When you look around the country there are not many strong teams. This years tournament will have more “upsets” than ever. Look at last night. That Villanova squad was fortunate to win over a not so hot Cincinnati team. And alot of folks think Villanove is #1, #2 or #3 in the nation, so don’t be shocked if the final four consists of three teams seeded 4th of worse.

  18. HeelsFan 02/24/2006 at 8:01 AM #

    Based on what we’re seeing around the country there are several teams capable of making a run at the title. The Wolfpack are certainly capable. A good showing against BC and Wake will help with the seeding.

    State did not play well against Carolina Wed. for whatever reason, but still State was only down 10, 10 minutes to go and Bethel (I believe) has a wide open three…………he misses and then Carolina comes down to score. If Bethel makes that 3, the game might have been different.

    I’m telling you SFN, you DO have a good team, especially with a healthy Evtimov. The experience will begin to show.

  19. lumberpack 02/24/2006 at 10:24 AM #

    What are you smoking heel fan and are you selling it as well? :0)

  20. HeelsFan 02/24/2006 at 11:38 AM #

    Smoking Herb……………(just a joke). Seriously, you guys are going to be ok……..If dook is the best in the country, you are right up there!

  21. class of '74 02/24/2006 at 11:44 AM #

    Dook ain’t the real #1. It’s one of the Big East powers this year.

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