RPI Update -6

General NCS Basketball48

Never ascribe to malice those things easily explained by incompetence.
Napoleon Bonaparte

I guess Napoleon wouldn’t be surprised that even though I live within two hours of both UVa and VT, that neither mid-week game would be available via cable…but we did get WF/UM and of course Duke/BC. Reports on message boards from Richmond say that they didn’t get the State-UVa game either. Looks like at least a big part of VA got the Wizards instead. Oh well….on to your regularly scheduled update.

My first entry here was titled “Another Pathetic Performance� just after the BC loss in football. For a while there, I was thinking about recycling that title. But, State’s win over UVa gives State a 6-2 mark at the half-way point of the ACC season. That puts State solidly in second place….even if the manner of the last several wins doesn’t build much confidence about the tougher games coming up. Oh well…survive and advance. The team will either step up play better against good teams, or it won’t…time will tell.

State’s RPI Graph Update.

Still 2-4 against the RPI Top-50. GW has a big road game tonight against Xavier. Does it bother anyone else that a home win against GW in December is State’s second-best victory of the season? (Please don’t bother telling me about GW’s poll numbers. Anyone who thinks that GW is the 10th best team in the country would fail urinalysis even if they just spit in the bottle.)

CONFERENCE UPDATE

Two teams have dramatically improved their level of play since State last saw them. Boston College has gone 5-1 since their miserable showing against State. If you remember, State’s RPI ranking went up after losing to Duke on the road…through the boost in State’s SOS plus the fact that the loss only counted as 0.6 games. Last night’s BC loss to the same Duke team, but in Boston, counted as 1.4 games ..and dropped their ranking.

Miami has improved their conference record to 5-3 and also shown steady improvement in their RPI ranking. More on Miami below.

It seems to me that the ACC can be split into the following groups:

– Duke
– Teams Fighting to Stay Above the Bubble
– Teams on the Bubble
– Teams Down Under

Here’s a summary of the conference, using these groups:

DUKE

That was as blatant a foul as I have ever seen when SheeWill hacked the BC player as time was running out. It was a stupid move for the BC player to try and drive instead of looking for a 3….but still. Anyone remember that DBR report that tried to use statistics to show that Duke didn’t get breaks from the refs?

FIGHTING TO STAY ABOVE THE BUBBLE

I’m not going to waste time or energy discussing the evils/necessity of unbalanced conference schedules. It is what it is…and this is what it is:

Maryland

NC State 

#25 (4-2) vs.

#26  (6-2)
vs.

 North Carolina

 

 NC
State

 Maryland

 Virginia

 Miami FL

 Duke

 Georgia
Tech

 Clemson

 Florida St.

 Georgia
Tech

 Virginia Tech

 Florida St.

 North Carolina

 North Carolina

 Boston College

 Miami FL

—-OFF—-

 Virginia

 Wake Forest

Boston College

North
Carolina

#30 (4-4) vs.

#36 (3-3) vs.

 

 Maryland

 Virginia Tech

 Clemson

 Wake Forest

 Duke

 Clemson

 Miami FL

 Stony Brook

 Georgia
Tech

 Miami FL

 Wake Forest

 Virginia

 NC
State

 NC
State

 Maryland

 Wake Forest

 Virginia

 Virginia Tech

 Duke



Clearly, BC has the easiest schedule remaining and UNC has the hardest…not that Maryland’s can be considered easy. Thursday’s game with UNC and Sunday’s game with State are big ones for Maryland. 0-2 would not be good for Terp fans….but pretty funny for everyone else.

Virginia

Clemson

Miami

#60 (4-4) vs.

#66 (3-5) vs.

#59 (5-3) vs.

 Wake Forest

 North Carolina

 Georgia Tech

 Maryland

 Virginia Tech

 NC
State

 Virginia Tech

 Boston College

 North Carolina

 Longwood

 Maryland

 Boston College

 Florida St.

—-OFF—-

 Duke

 Boston College

 Wake Forest

 Virginia Tech

 Clemson

 Virginia

—-OFF—-

 North Carolina

 Virginia Tech

 Maryland

 Maryland

 Georgia Tech

 Florida St.

Miami has the toughest schedule and Clemson’s the easiest. For Miami…BC, Duke, and UMD are all away…so the State and UNC games in Miami have to be considered critical to making the NCAAT. Clemson’s loss at FSU squandered a great opportunity to move up in the conference and in the RPI. UVa is far better than anyone around here ever dreamed about…but they need to finish some games if they want to move up the bubble.

The big question here is can anyone get it together and clear the bubble? With the ACC still rated third…you don’t want to go into Selection Sunday on the back-side of the bubble.

TEAMS DOWN UNDER

The only questions being asked in this part of the conference can’t be repeated in mixed company. However, GT is the only team currently with an over-all losing record. The ACC may fill out an entire regional of the NIT.

To be fair, FSU is in about the same position that State was last year. They will need a super-strong finish to clear the bubble. FSU’s OOC schedule currently ranks #323…illustrating the major pitfall of scheduling cupcakes early. Cupcakes absolutely destroy the RPI of teams in the middle of the conference.

 

RPI

Conf

Overall

Team

Rank

Record

Record

Florida St

85

4-4

13-5

Wake Forest

107

1-7

12-9

Virginia Tech

119

2-6

12-9

Georgia Tech

137

2-6

9-10

One final thought. Watching Wake Forest is like a car wreck on the interstate….you don’t want to look, but you just can’t help it. Isn’t the Deacon’s expression appropriate?

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball

48 Responses to RPI Update -6

  1. Rick 02/02/2006 at 10:54 AM #

    “Still 2-4 against the RPI Top-50.”
    That stinks and does not inspire confidence that we can finally become a championship team.

  2. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 11:11 AM #

    Maryland, Carolina & Boston College’s visit to the RBC will be huge barometers of what to expect from the team come NCAA Tournament time and significantly impact the general mood of the mainstream fanbase.

  3. class of '74 02/02/2006 at 11:13 AM #

    Tonight is one of the few nights to pull for a UNC win.

  4. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 11:42 AM #

    Along with a poor record against good teams, State doesn’t typically have long winning streaks after Jan 1. The five-game win streak in 2004 is the longest one I remember.

    The tendency to lay an egg without notice will generally bump teams from a tournament fairly quick.

  5. Chief93 02/02/2006 at 1:18 PM #

    The way I’ve been tracking remaining schedule difficulty is to use Sagarin ratings (including the home court adjustment) to get an average strength of the remaining teams to be played. The conclusions match up pretty well with what you’ve stated (Sorted most to least difficult):

    FS 85.64625
    NC 85.192
    WF 85.075
    MI 84.98625
    GT 84.85625
    DU 83.95
    MD 83.891
    VT 83.33875
    VA 82.89625
    ST 81.97125
    CU 81.41
    BC 80.87375

    Note that MD and NC each have 10 games remaining whereas everyone else has 8. Not sure if that should give them upward or downward consideration in the difficulty scale….

  6. Wolfpacklawyer 02/02/2006 at 1:29 PM #

    VaWolf,

    Four was also the longest win streak after the first of the year in the regular season in 1983 as well. Just shows what a miracle that post-season run was. You know V’s longest regular season win streak after Jan. 1 was in 1984. It was 9 games. Of course, we had 5 straight losses before and 7 straight losses after it. A season of streaks.

  7. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 1:29 PM #

    Wow, I knew State’s hardest games were done, but I wouldn’t have guessed that State’s was the third easiest (based on any criteria)

    I wrote some stuff about how difficulty of schedule effects the rest of the year…but ended up deleting it. If your schedule is harder and you win…then RPI and media recognition will both go up. If your schedule is easier and you win, then people are left wondering how good a team really is. If you lose….then it doesn’t really matter what your SOS is.

    In any event, teams have no control over the SOS at the end of the season. Just win baby.

  8. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 1:34 PM #

    Four was also the longest win streak after the first of the year in the regular season in 1983 as well. Just shows what a miracle that post-season run was.

    I disagree with your assessment of 1983….simply because the team’s leading scorer was hurt during the middle of the season. Hey, that’s one excuse that the Sunshine Squad hasn’t gotten to use yet.

    If you look at V’s entire tenure and at Herb’s….you will see that V consistently performed better in tournament environments than you would expect based on regular season performance. Some of Herb’s biggest wins have come during the ACCT, but his teams do not have those same landmark accomplishments in tournaments.

  9. Chief93 02/02/2006 at 1:46 PM #

    Oops. I just noticed a schedule error. DU should move down the list to between VA and ST.

    Also notice that the four hardest schedules include the four teams that have Cameron trips ahead of them. And, for good measure, FS and NC also have a second DU game still ahead.

  10. Wolfpacklawyer 02/02/2006 at 1:47 PM #

    VaWolf, I thought you were all stats and results. So you are saying that approach should not be used when evaluating 1983? In evaluating 1983, we should take into account more than W’s and L’s? Take into account it’s potential with a full healthy squad? In evaluating 1983, we should look at not just what V had accomplished at State up to that point, but also what he later accomplished at State? Interesting.

  11. Trout 02/02/2006 at 1:56 PM #

    “If you look at V’s entire tenure and at Herb’s….you will see that V consistently performed better in tournament environments than you would expect based on regular season performance. ”

    Do you mean the NCAA Tournament, or the ACC Tournament, or both? I agree with the NCAA Tournament (other than in 1988), but not in the ACC Tournament – the consistent part, I mean. Obviously V had 2 ACC Tournament titles. But comparing regular season performance to ACC Tournament performance leads to this:

    81: RS=7th, ACCT=lost in first round (expected)
    82: RS=4th, ACCT=lost in semis (expected)
    83: RS=4th, ACCT=Champion (way better than expected)
    84: RS=7th, ACCT=lost in first round (expected)
    85: RS=tied for 1st, ACCT=lost in semis (below expected)
    86: RS=4th, ACCT=lost in first round (below expected)
    87: RS=6th, ACCT=champion (way better than expected)
    88: RS=2nd, ACCT=lost in semis (below expected)
    89: RS=1st, ACCT=lost in first round (way below expected)
    90: RS=5th, ACCT=lost in first round (expected)

  12. Trout 02/02/2006 at 2:09 PM #

    Compared to Herb:

    97: RS=7th, ACCT=lost in title game (way above expected)
    98: RS=7th, ACCT=lost in 1st round (expected)
    99: RS=5th, ACCT=lost in semis (above expected)
    00: RS=6th, ACCT=lost in semis (above expected)
    01: RS=6th, ACCT=lost in 1st round (expected)
    02: RS=4th, ACCT=lost in title game (above expected)
    03: RS=4th, ACCT=lost in title game (above expected)
    04: RS=2nd, ACCT=lost in semis (below expected)
    05: RS=6th, ACCT=lost in semis (above expected)

  13. Trout 02/02/2006 at 2:16 PM #

    ^ Correction. NC State finished 2001 7th in the ACC, not 6th.

  14. BJD95 02/02/2006 at 2:33 PM #

    You obviously have nothing to explain away when you win the national title. NOTHING. Especially since it has taken SIX wins to do it, no title run can be explained away as a fluke or lucky. Who gives a crap what seed you started with when you win it all?

    By “tournament coach” – I mean the feeling entering the tournament (backed up by evidence) that you are almost always capable of winning it all. And yes, there are various “levels” of NCAAT success that do not involve titles (i.e., “Final Four,” “Elite Eight,” and Sweet Sixteen). The same is NOT true for the conference tourney. I think that’s true among the media and fanbases for all ACC schools. That’s why it’s more of a black mark on a coach’s resume to have never made a Final Four (see Keady, Gene) than to have never won a national title. You don’t hang banners for appearance in the conference final – NOBODY does. But Final Four banners? Certainly, and it’s done almost everywhere.

  15. Sam '92 02/02/2006 at 2:34 PM #

    I’m surprised not to see posts on the football class signed up yesterday. Seems like a mid-level haul. (maybe that’s why no one’s writing about it)

  16. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 2:42 PM #

    VaWolf, I thought you were all stats and results. So you are saying that approach should not be used when evaluating 1983?

    For the most part I am….especially the results part. You claimed that the 83 team was lucky…I claim that it was just good.

    In evaluating 1983, we should look at not just what V had accomplished at State up to that point, but also what he later accomplished at State?

    I never said anything close to that.

  17. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 2:46 PM #

    I’m surprised not to see posts on the football class signed up yesterday. Seems like a mid-level haul.

    I think that mid-level is being generous….especially if your class is ranked below Duke’s.

  18. Wolfpacklawyer 02/02/2006 at 4:21 PM #

    You claimed that the 83 team was lucky…

    I never said this. It’s true. But, I didn’t say it. I will now though. The 1983 team was lucky. They were very good as well. But, they were lucky too.

  19. class of '74 02/02/2006 at 4:26 PM #

    ^to win a national championship it takes both!

  20. Wolfpacklawyer 02/02/2006 at 4:28 PM #

    ^Amen.

  21. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 5:16 PM #

    Sam…football to come. Limited time.

    In the “Tournament conversation” it seems that people have forgotten/ignored V’s 2 straight Elite 8s. And the “confidence” that some of those wins built in the fanbase (like the 2OT win vs Iowa).

    V coached for 10 years. 5 of which was a 64 team tournament field. Herb has coached for 10 years. 10 of which has been a 64 team tournament field. In V’s 10 years, he took his teams as far or farther than Herb’s single best NCAA tournament on four different occassions.

  22. JeremyHyatt 02/03/2006 at 4:46 AM #

    I thought this was worth pasting/quoting:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=2316283

    “Ready to rise: North Carolina State (5). Record now: 17-4, 6-2. Projected record heading into postseason: 23-6, 12-4. The Wolfpack conceivably could be favored in each of their final eight games, which are split evenly between home and road. The four road games are against teams with a combined league record of 8-20. NC State has rebounding issues and lacks a true go-to guy, but in league play, Herb Sendek’s team is shooting a smoking 50.4 percent from the field and 46.1 percent from 3-point range.”

  23. Mr. O 02/03/2006 at 7:57 AM #

    Jeff: V also inherited a much, much better program positioned to win immediately coming off of a National title 8 years prior. Herb inherited a program after 6 years of the worst stretch of NC State basketball in its history.

    The two programs the coaches tookover were quite different so it is only logical to expect their results to be different as well.

    I read in the most recent Poop Sheet that only 1 player graduated from NC State during Jim Valvano’s tenure. Is that really true? If you are going to compare Herb to Valvano in terms of results, then certainly you would have to look at how their programs succeeded in terms of academics and avoiding off the court troubles.

  24. Trout 02/03/2006 at 8:35 AM #

    “In the “Tournament conversationâ€? it seems that people have forgotten/ignored V’s 2 straight Elite 8s.

    Who the hell is ignoring that? I’d rank Jimmy V as one of the best NCAA Tournament coaches of ALL TIME. He runs circles around Herb in terms of NCAA Tournament performance.

    “And the “confidenceâ€? that some of those wins built in the fanbase (like the 2OT win vs Iowa).”

    I’d certainly rank Herb’s win against UCONN last year every bit as impressive as the 2OT win against Iowa in ’89.

    Also, the 64 field team vs non-64 field is a moot point, IMO. When V coached, the NCAA field was at 48 and then 64, and only your top teams didnt have to win 6 games to win the title. (NC State had to win 6 in ’83. Had UVA won the title, they would have only had to win 5). Sloan had MANY teams that would have gotten a NCAA invite had the field been 64 teams. V had NO ADDITIONAL teams that would have gotten a invite had the field been 64 teams ( mainly talking about the years 1981 and 1984 for V).

    In summary – V much better NCAA tournament coach than Herb. Is there anyone here that is shocked by that? Why is this even a discussion point?

  25. VaWolf82 02/03/2006 at 9:05 AM #

    V much better NCAA tournament coach than Herb. Is there anyone here that is shocked by that? Why is this even a discussion point?

    Because people continually use V’s regular seasons records to conclude that Herb is as good a coach as V…or some derivative thereof.

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