RPI Update

General NCS Basketball28

After an exciting night of basketball, it’s a shame that the graphs aren’t nearly as thrilling (only State’s graph updated today). A road victory moved State’s RPI into the Top-20…its best ranking all year.

State’s RPI Graph

State still stands at 4-4 against the RPI Top-50. Alabama came through and managed to beat Vandy in OT at home. It doesn’t look like any of State’s other victories will jump up and surprise us like Alabama did:

WINS vs Top-100

25

 

Boston College

37

 

George Washington

39

 

Maryland

 

44

 

Alabama

 

65

 

Virginia

 

75

 

Miami

 

79

 

Clemson

 

95

 

Notre Dame

Conference Update

Maryland is the only team on the bubble that managed to tread water through the mid-week games. The home victory against UVa kept them from falling further, but didn’t move them very far up the ladder.

Clemson, UVa, and Miami all lost…thus moving them all in the wrong direction. Going 3-9 since Dec 28 (and losing four straight) slid Clemson off of the bubble. A home loss moved UM out and their next three games are going to be really rough UNC (H), BC (A) and Duke (A).

HISTORICAL
BUBBLE TRENDS

 

 

ACC

Weekend

NCAAT

RPI

TEAM

Record

Game

Status

1

Duke

10-0

UMD

(A)

 

17

NC State

8-2

GT

(A)

IN

25

Boston College

6-4

CU

(H)

30

North Carolina

5-4

UM

(A)

 

39

Maryland

5-4

Duke

(H)

Bubble

65

Virginia

5-5

VT

(H)

75

Miami

6-4

UNC

(H)

 

78

Florida State

4-5

UMass

(H)

 

79

Clemson

3-7

BC

(A)

OUT

107

Virginia Tech

3-7

UVA

(A)

117

Wake Forest

1-9

UNCC

(H)

 

148

Georgia Tech

2-7

NCSU

(H)

 

Team names link to results and future schedule at kenpom.com
Thursday: GT @ FSU

DANCE CARD UPDATE

There has been some discussion about the Missouri Valley Conference and the fact that they have four teams in the RPI Top-40. Can the MVC put four in the Big Dance? Well according the Dance Card formula, the MVC quartet was looking good through Monday night.

Even without the UVA win, Maryland is hanging on….while the other three ACC bubble teams show up on the wrong side. Here’s a brief summary of the last Dance Card update to give a different perspective on the bubble:

Games thru Mon, Feb 6

Dance Card

 

 

Rank

Team

Conf

19

Wichita St.

MVC

22

Creighton

MVC

30

Northern Iowa

MVC

41

Southern Illinois

MVC

 

 

 

42

Maryland

 

The bubble bursts @ 48, if current conference leaders
below 48 earn automatic bids

51

Miami FL

 

58

Virginia

 

65

Clemson

 

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball

28 Responses to RPI Update

  1. Mr. O 02/09/2006 at 10:10 AM #

    Here is how the Sagarin looks for teams we have played.

    1 Duke (L, away)
    13 NC State
    18 BC (W, away)
    19 UNC (L, away)
    22 Iowa (L, away)
    32 Maryland (W, home)
    44 Seton Hall (L, home)
    48 Notre Dame (W, neutral/road)
    50 Bama (W, away)
    62 Miami (W, away)
    67 UVa (W, home)
    73 Clemson (W, away)
    89 Wake Forest (W, home)

    1-3 vs top 25 (all on the road)
    4-4 vs to 50 (2 home, 6 away)
    8-4 vs top 100 (4 home, 8 away)
    3 losses on the road top 22 teams, 1 win away
    1 loss at home to #44

    Seems kind of weird how the best teams we have played have ended up being mostly on the road so far.

  2. Mr. O 02/09/2006 at 10:15 AM #

    Here is how the Sagarin looks for teams we have played.

    Warning: Ignore the previous post as I left out GW. Here is the correct Sagarin info for games played against top 100 teams.

    1 Duke (L, away)
    10 GW (W, home)
    13 NC State
    18 BC (W, away)
    19 UNC (L, away)
    22 Iowa (L, away)
    32 Maryland (W, home)
    44 Seton Hall (L, home)
    48 Notre Dame (W, neutral/road)
    50 Bama (W, away)
    62 Miami (W, away)
    67 UVa (W, home)
    73 Clemson (W, away)
    89 Wake Forest (W, home)

    2-3 vs top 25 (1 home, 4 away)
    5-4 vs to 50 (3 home, 6 away)
    9-4 vs top 100 (5 home, 8 away)
    3 losses on the road top 22 teams, 1 win away
    1 loss at home to #44

    Seems kind of weird how the best teams we have played have ended up being mostly on the road so far. It would also be nice to have a do-over on the Seton Hall game.

  3. VaWolf82 02/09/2006 at 10:20 AM #

    If I did the math right, then a win over Seton Hall would have put State in the RPI TOp-10 right now. Home losses hurt bad.

    At the time, someone said that the SH loss would cost State at least one seed. At the time, I didn’t believe them….I do now.

  4. RickJ 02/09/2006 at 10:33 AM #

    I wonder if the Seton Hall loss coupled with the Georgetown win over Duke might cost the ACC one team in the tourney. I would hate to be an ACC team on the bubble with a Big East team.

  5. Mr. O 02/09/2006 at 10:40 AM #

    Vawolf: It is possible that it could cost us a seed. We would also probably be ranked in the top 10 right now. We can still control our destiny by winning out in the reg. season or by winning the ACC tournament. Still, it is more likely that we will lose 1 or 2 reg. season games and that we won’t win the ACC tournament.

    Does having 3 road games against the 3 worst ACC teams give us a chance to move up in the RPI since road wins are weighted?

    What is Seton Hall’s RPI? I can’t see how they aren’t in the top 100 considering they are 15-6 overall and 51st in SOS. They must have some bad losses.

  6. Trout 02/09/2006 at 10:47 AM #

    Last time I looked, Seton Hall had an RPI of 33.

  7. BJD95 02/09/2006 at 10:58 AM #

    If SH loss takes us from a 2 to a 3, no big deal. A 3 to a 4 is a big deal, particularly if we get stuck in UConn’s bracket again (I don’t really want any part of Villanova, either).

    That said, if we continue on our projected track, I think we still get the 3. If we only lose 2 more (ACCT included), I think that’s a lock. Possibly with 3 losses, if 1 is the ACCT final.

    I ‘m really concerned more with how we play at this point. Glad to see the defense showing improvement.

  8. Mr. O 02/09/2006 at 11:03 AM #

    Trout: Thanks. Vawolf’s list only included our wins.

  9. TVP 02/09/2006 at 11:05 AM #

    It bugs me to no end how So. Ill. is still in everyone’s tourney bracket. The RPI doesn’t take into account that they lost to a division II school. Miami would absolutely wipe the floor with them.

  10. Trout 02/09/2006 at 11:16 AM #

    I know this is a different subject, but I just cant get over the TOTAL collapse by Wake Forest. They are 1-9 in the ACC. Last night, Hubert Davis picked his 3 most disapppointing teams for the season, and he did NOT pick Wake. He picked Kentucky, Syracuse and Arizona. How can Wake not be the most disappointing team in the land? At least Kentucky, Syracuse and Arizona are NOT DEAD LAST in their respective conferences.

    I think Herb’s worst season in the ACC first half was 0-8, in his very first year, with Gainey, Osh, Strong, etc. That team had no talent. They did go 4-4 in the 2nd half of the ACC season.

    Wake Forest has 2 bona-fide All-ACC type players in Gray and Williams, plus 2 veterans in Strickland and Visser, yet they are dead last, but a full 2 games, at 1-9. Can Wake even manage 4-4 to end up at 5-11 for the season.

  11. choppack 02/09/2006 at 11:27 AM #

    Ellis is a vet too.

    A couple of thoughts. The Seton Hall game will hurt us if a) we lose more than 3 games before the tourney or b) if Seton Hall falls apart.

    Isn’t Seton Hall playing pretty well right now? That loss doesn’t look nearly as bad as it did a couple of weeks ago from an RPI perspective – which looks solely at wins and losses.

    If we can continue our winning streak – I think we’re a good bet for a 3 seed. Like others, I don’t want any part of a #4 seed. I’d rather let others try to take out UConn, Duke and Memphis.

  12. Trout 02/09/2006 at 11:32 AM #

    ^ It still looks bad. Even if Seton Halls wins the NCAAT, it was a bad loss because of the way the team played.

  13. choppack 02/09/2006 at 12:58 PM #

    Trout – I’m more talking about it in RPI terms being the same as a 1 point loss.

  14. newswolf 02/09/2006 at 1:20 PM #

    I think if we a 4 seed we go to Greensboro.

    VaWolf a real cool feature would be each monday to tell us what seed you think NC State is in the tournament.

    I really think if we can finish at 12-4 or 13-3 in the ACC we will be a 1-4 seed. No way the Tourney puts a 2nd place ACC team w/that record as a 5 or 6.

    Good stuff VA I always like reading your numbers

  15. choppack 02/09/2006 at 1:52 PM #

    I’m hoping our win vs. GW is worth something to the committee. In other words, I’m pulling for them to run the table. It wouldn’t hurt if we swept BC and they kept playing at a high level either.

  16. VaWolf82 02/09/2006 at 2:32 PM #

    Does having 3 road games against the 3 worst ACC teams give us a chance to move up in the RPI since road wins are weighted?

    Don’t tell my manager, but I’ve been trying to figure that out for myself. If I can get something together, I can post it for review and maybe reach some conclusions.

    VaWolf a real cool feature would be each monday to tell us what seed you think NC State is in the tournament.

    Well, you know I would hate to post something that would get people upset 😉 Let me think about it and see what I can do.

    To be honest, I think that the best thing State can do is go on a real hot streak and go to at least Sat in the ACCT. Beating UNC and BC at home is essential. Without those two wins, State’s resume against Top-25 teams is not that good. State has no bad losses….but its most impressive win was against BC when they were in a slump.

  17. VaWolf82 02/09/2006 at 2:36 PM #

    Vawolf’s list only included our wins.

    I was afraid that people would call me negative if I talked about the losses. 😉

  18. Mr. O 02/09/2006 at 2:49 PM #

    Vawolf82: I doubt the committee will care how BC was playing when we beat them. If we win 12 games and win 1 game in the ACC tourney, then there is no way we don’t get a top 4 seed. If we win 12 and make the ACC finals, then we are likely too get a top 3 seed. Win more than 12 and/or win the ACC tournament and it could be higher.

    There is definitely a lot to play for the rest of the year.

  19. Trout 02/09/2006 at 3:23 PM #

    ESPN currently has us as a #4 seed in their Power 16:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/powerranking?week=14&pollId=1&season=2006

  20. VaWolf82 02/09/2006 at 4:03 PM #

    If we win 12 games and win 1 game in the ACC tourney, then there is no way we don’t get a top 4 seed.

    I’m not going to disagree with the final answer…but I will disagree with the logic. The seeding will depend on more that what State does…it will depend on what everyone in roughly the RPI Top-35 does.

    For example, if State’s two additional losses are BC and UNC in Raleigh…..then who has State beaten of note?

    Then there are the absolute unknowns…..like GW. How in the world can you figure out how good they are? They are playing very few games against quality competition and got absolutely wore-out in Raleigh. I just can’t see the Selection Committee giving State alot of “extra” credit for that win.

    Other than the #1 seeds and maybe a few of the #2’s, the time required to do a decent job at creating a bracket is absolutely mind-boggling. That’s why I think that most of the brackets are probably thrown together based on RPI, Sagarin, polls etc with no real analysis.

  21. class of '74 02/09/2006 at 4:17 PM #

    ^In listening to the NCAA last year they made it sound like with each line beyond the first line it was numbers plus fuzzy logic to arrive with the seeds. What’s a strong 3rd line vs. a weak 2nd line? And the regional ballance? It’s just crazy.

  22. choppack 02/09/2006 at 4:25 PM #

    Yep – I think they are pulling a lot of stuff out of the hat.

    Question – if we go to the GSO pod – would we be in Duke’s region? Even more, is it likely they would stack that pod w/ an 8 seeded heel team?

  23. Mr. O 02/09/2006 at 5:00 PM #

    Vawolf82: You always tend to look at NC State inside of a bubble. The committee would be comparing our performance against other teams. My guess is that if you look at other teams we would be competing for seeds against, then they are probably in the same boat as far as # of impressive wins. What SEC teams have impressive wins in the grand scheme of things? How many do Florida and UT have? What about teams from the Big 12, Big 10, and Big East?

  24. VaWolf82 02/09/2006 at 6:52 PM #

    You always tend to look at NC State inside of a bubble.

    Uh no……That’s what I meant when I said that you would have to seed nearly the entire top-35 to figure out where State would go.

    What SEC teams have impressive wins in the grand scheme of things? How many do Florida and UT have? What about teams from the Big 12, Big 10, and Big East?

    I don’t have the answers to any of those questions….which was why I said that it would take a tremendous amount of time to do a “real” bracket….and why I suspect that most of the ones posted on the internet are just done to generate traffic to their site.

  25. Trout 02/10/2006 at 8:09 AM #

    Update on Seton Hall. ESPN said their RPI was now 26.

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