Does Maryland Still Have a Chance?

General NCS Basketball41

With three straight losses, I had basically written Maryland off when I did yesterday’s RPI update. Later, I started wondering if I had written them off too soon and decided to take a little closer look. Here’s Maryland’s record since the end of the OOC cupcakes:

Sat Jan 7

(61) Miami FL 84, Maryland 70

Away

Wed Jan 11

(1) Duke
76, Maryland
52

Away

Sun Jan 15

Maryland 90, (108) Wake Forest
86

Home

Sat Jan 21

Maryland 81, (129) Virginia Tech 72

Home

Wed Jan 25

Maryland 86, (145) Georgia Tech 74

Away

Sat Jan 28

(46) Temple 91, Maryland
85

Away

Thu Feb 2

(26) North Carolina 77, Maryland 62

Home

Sun Feb 5

(22) North Carolina St. 62, Maryland
58

Away

So over the last month, Maryland’s only wins have come against teams ranked 100+…not generally a good sign. But on the other hand, they have not any terrible losses either…and four of the five losses were on the road. While the recent results do not build confidence for the remainder of the year, is all hope lost?

Since State does not play Maryland again and they do represent one of State’s wins against RPI top-50 teams…let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and look at what they need in order to finish the year in the top-50 and at least stay on the NCAAT bubble.

Here is their remaining schedule sorted hardest to easiest:

Sat Feb 11

Maryland vs. (1) Duke

Home

Sun Feb 26

Maryland vs. (26) North Carolina

Away

 

 

 

Tue Feb 7

Maryland vs. (55) Virginia

Home

Sun Mar 5

Maryland vs. (55) Virginia

Away

Wed Mar 1

Maryland vs. (61) Miami FL

Home

Wed Feb 15

Maryland vs. (63) Clemson

Away

 

 

 

Wed Feb 22

Maryland vs. (74) Florida
St.

Away

Sat Feb 18

Maryland vs. (145) Georgia
Tech

Home

So let’s start with some gross assumptions….Let’s assume that Maryland can’t beat Duke or UNC….and that they can’t lose to FSU or GT. That would put Maryland at 6-6 in conference with the following games left against their friends on the bubble:

Tue
Feb 7

Maryland vs. (55) Virginia

Home

?

Sat Feb
11

Maryland vs. (1)
Duke

Home

Loss

Wed
Feb 15

Maryland vs. (63) Clemson

Away

?

Sat Feb
18

Maryland vs. (145)
Georgia Tech

Home

Win

Wed Feb
22

Maryland vs. (74) Florida St.

Away

Win

Sun Feb
26

Maryland vs. (26)
North Carolina

Away

Loss

Wed
Mar 1

Maryland vs. (61) Miami FL

Home

?

Sun
Mar 5

Maryland vs. (55) Virginia

Away

?

So would 3-1 against the bubble teams be enough? That would put them at 9-7 going into the ACCT. A win on Thursday in the ACCT would certainly be required…and a win on Friday would probably seal the deal.

Is this a hopeless fantasy? Interestingly, two of the next three games come against the bubble teams on Maryland’s schedule…Which will give us something to watch for:

– 2-1 with only a loss to Duke…and Gary may have MD back on track.
– 1-2 and hopes are getting dim.
– 0-3 and you can turn out the lights.

What do you think….do they have a chance?

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball

41 Responses to Does Maryland Still Have a Chance?

  1. Mr. O 02/08/2006 at 8:41 AM #

    Additionally, Gary never won a title at BC or Ohio St, so maybe Maryland should never have hired Gary Williams in the 1st place if it is all about titles?

    I guarantee you that if you look at ACC winning percentages over time that there is a correlation with titles. Duke has won 80% of its games over the 5 year stretch. Believe it or not, they have 4 ACC titles. How about Maryland? They are 2nd in ACC winning percentage and they have 1 ACC tourney title and 1 National title.

    So is ACC winning percentage in fact very relevant?

    The only other title in this group was UNC’s last year. Their ACC winning percentage last year was 75% and they are 5th overall. If you count Skip Prosser’s regular season championship as a title, then he was 81.25% the year he won the title and he is 4th over this 5 year period in winning percentage.

    No other team has won any kind of title in the ACC past the top 5 in ACC winning percentage. The evidence suggests that there is a correlation between being in the top 5 of ACC winning percentage and having better chances to win titles and make runs in the NCAA tournament.

    Let’s look at all-time winning percentages. UNC and Duke are 1st and 2nd respectively and they also happen to have the most titles national and ACC titles by far.

    Who is 3rd in winning percentage? Maryland – one of 4 ACC schools with a national title and they also have 3 ACC titles.

    Who is 4th in all-time winning percentages? NC State with two national titles and 10 ACC titles.

    How about 5th? Wake Forest with 4 ACC titles. These titles came during the two most successful periods of ACC basketball in terms of ACC winning percentage. One was with Bones McKinney who is 8th all-time in ACC history. The other two came with Dave Odom who is 13th all-time in ACC winning percentage.

    When did GT start to win ACC titles? As soon as they started winning a high percentage of ACC games with Bobby Cremmins (20th all-time in ACC winning percentage). Over the stretch of winning his titles, Cremmins went 101-77 for 56.7%.

    How many titles does the rest of the ACC have? UVa with 2, FSU with zero, and Clemson 0.

    To argue that a high ACC winning percentage doesn’t correlate with titles is not supported by facts.

  2. Trout 02/08/2006 at 9:12 AM #

    Back on topic: big win for Maryland last night. Big in that a loss to UVA at home would have been just about fatal. Williams also passed Lefty as Maryland’s all time winningest coach.

    Since the original topic was Maryland, who does the Board feel is the better MD coach – Gary or Lefty?

    Before Lefty, MD basketball wasnt that much. Lefty came in with the promise to make MD the “UCLA of the East.” Unfortunately for him, NC State’s greatest teams, and Dean Smith got in the way. However, those MD teams from around 72 to 85 were very, very good. Had the NCAA been 64 teams, Lefty probably would have had a Final 4 somewhere along the line. Think about it, in 1974, MD was ranked #3 in the nation, and didnt make the NCAA Tournament. Lefty never made the Final 4, but did win the ACC Regular Season 2 times (?) and won the ACCT in 1984. He did leave MD in turmoil though.

    And that’s where Gary comes in. His rebuilding job at MD is the greatest in ACC history, IMO. Gary has 2 Final 4s, 1 NCAA title, 1 ACCT title and 2(?) Regular Season titles. He has also excelled in the land of the 64 team NCAA Tournament. He almost always advances to the Sweet 16 when MD goes.

    I give the edge to Gary, but I think the edge would be Lefty’s if the NCAA had been 64 teams back when Lefty coached.

  3. class of '74 02/08/2006 at 9:37 AM #

    ^Good question. And good analysis too. My vote goes to Lefty for one big reason. It’s harder to build than rebuild. Also, GW has said everything he has done was made easier due to the great teams and tradition Lefty had. IMO Lefty was the better recruiter and GW was the better X&O coach.

  4. class of '74 02/08/2006 at 9:48 AM #

    ^Note to Mr. O. Nobody, especially myself, has advocated firing GW so that won’t fly. As to percentages and records, compare apples to apples and examine the entire tenure at the respective schools for coaches in the ACC not just the highwater portions! Lies, damn lies and stats.

    I stand by my earlier posts that I would have let Herb go after year five. Has he improved since then? Yes he has! Has the improvement been up to past standards? No!

  5. VaWolf82 02/08/2006 at 9:59 AM #

    Even if you limit your review to conference performance, you have to give the nod to Gary. Lefty is still a great coach…but Gary is better.

    Back to this year:

    I was hoping someone would give the last game that McCray played in before he was academically suspended. Maryland had a number of less than impressive performances, even when he was playing. So without him, you have to think that Maryland’s chances are dim.

    Last night was good for MD in several ways. It was by far their best victory since McCray was suspended. Secondly, they came back after digging a substantial hole in the first half against a team that is playing pretty well…this can only build confidence for the future.

    In reflection, I think that Trout was correct about the FSU game in Tal. I should have labeled that game as a ? instead of a sure win. That would make five swing games that will likely end up making or breaking MD’s season.

    One question for those that follow recruiting….I have read several people mention MD’s “great” recruiting class that is coming in this fall. ISTR Vitale mentioning on the air as well. I looked up scout.com’s team rankings and the ACC has six teams in the top-25…and MD is not one of them. Am I missing something?

  6. Trout 02/08/2006 at 10:42 AM #

    Off topic again, but for Jeff:

    Last night, if you saw it, the telecast featured 2 different ACC Legends: NC State’s Bobby Speight and GT’s John Barry.

    What is interesting about Speight, is that while he played at NC State, he never played in the ACC. Speight played in the old Southern Conference from 1951 to 1953. But somehow, he is now an “ACC” Legend.

  7. ADS95 02/08/2006 at 11:03 AM #

    ^ Question about the “Gene Keady” award and the negative connotation…

    Keady won the Big 10 Championship six times. Seems like that goes beyond just winning percentage. Granted, he did not fare well in the NCAA’s…

    Is there something I’m missing?

  8. class of '74 02/08/2006 at 11:23 AM #

    ^He got lost next to BK, Lute, Frieder, Heathcote etc… He was good but compared to the others he was lost in the shadows.

  9. VaWolf82 02/08/2006 at 11:29 AM #

    Is there something I’m missing?

    Nope, you pretty much nailed it. Draw your own comparisons between Keady and Sendek.

  10. Mr. O 02/08/2006 at 11:30 AM #

    Class of 74: I am not saying to look at Herb’s best five years. I am simply saying let’s look at the last 5 years of ACC play for all coaches. Those just happen to be Herb’s best therefore my selection of time period is fair to all coaches in the ACC.

    If I was selecting year 2, 4,6, 7, and 9 only, then I can see where you are coming from. However, this span of 4.5 year runs includes one of Coach K’s best runs, Gary Williams best run of his career, and the best run for Wake Forest since the early 60s with Bones McKinney.

    NC State’s program has performed well in ACC. It doesn’t have to be about the coach.

  11. class of '74 02/08/2006 at 12:26 PM #

    ^ok. Some are thrilled with the recent past and others are a little less so.
    Now do you honestly think we will maintain this position looking forward?
    I realize now nobody can predict the future with any certainty but do you really think we will have the second best record over the next three to five years? I hope we do but I don’t have a good reason to believe we will! Strictly based on both our recent past and who our main competitors are.

  12. VaWolf82 02/08/2006 at 1:12 PM #

    NC State’s program has performed well in ACC.

    This is another way of saying that State is stuck on pretty good. Other programs have risen and fallen….and State has done neither. Thus good things (but not great) can be said about a given period of time…all without accomplishing anything (save one S-16) of significance.

    I should have deleted Mr O’s initial post because it had nothing to do with this entry and he made it at the same time he started a thread on PP. One discussion per day on the same old stuff should have been enough.

  13. Mr. O 02/08/2006 at 1:12 PM #

    NCAA TOURNAMENT APPEARANCES
    2002-03 Head Coach Purdue Second Round
    1999-00 Head Coach Purdue “Elite Eight”
    1998-99 Head Coach Purdue “Sweet 16”
    1997-98 Head Coach Purdue “Sweet 16”
    1996-97 Head Coach Purdue Second Round
    1995-96 Head Coach Purdue Second Round
    1994-95 Head Coach Purdue Second Round
    1993-94 Head Coach Purdue “Elite Eight”
    1992-93 Head Coach Purdue First Round
    1990-91 Head Coach Purdue First Round
    1989-90 Head Coach Purdue Second Round
    1987-88 Head Coach Purdue “Sweet 16”
    1986-87 Head Coach Purdue Second Round
    1985-86 Head Coach Purdue First Round
    1984-85 Head Coach Purdue First Round
    1983-84 Head Coach Purdue First Round
    1982-83 Head Coach Purdue Second Round
    1981-82 Head Coach Purdue Second Round
    1979-80 Head Coach Western Kentucky First Round
    1977-78 Assistant Coach Arkansas Final Four (3rd)
    1976-77 Assistant Coach Arkansas First Round

    COLLEGIATE COACHING EXPERIENCE
    1980-pres. Head Coach Purdue
    1979-80 Head Coach Western Kentucky
    1975-78 Assistant Coach Arkansas
    1967-74 Head Coach Hutchison Junior College
    1966 Assistant Coach Hutchison Junior College

    USA BASKETBALL COACHING EXPERIENCE
    2000 Assistant Coach Olympic – Sydney, Australia
    1999 Assistant Coach Olympic Qualifying
    1991 Head Coach Pan American Games
    1989 Head Coach World University Games
    1985 Head Coach Olympic Developmental

    ACCOLADES
    Big Ten Coach of the Year 1984, ’88, ’90, ’94, ’95, ’96, 2000
    National Coach of the Year 1984, ’88, ’94, ’95, ’96, 2000
    Halls of Fame National Junior College Basketball (player and coach)

    GENE KEADY’S COACHING HONORS
    HALLS OF FAME

    National Junior College Basketball Hall of Fame (as both a player and coach)
    Big Ten Coach-of-the-Year (seven times – league record)
    1984 (Big Ten champs), ’88 (Big Ten champs), ’90, ’94 (Big Ten champs), ’95 (Big Ten champs), ’96 (Big Ten champs) and ’00 (second place)
    National Coach-of-the-Year (six times)
    1984 National Coach of the Year by the United States Basketball Writers Association (USBWA), CBS Sports, Chevrolet Scholarship Program, Hoop Scoop and Iowa Rebounders Club
    1988 National Coach of the Year by NBC Sports
    1994 National Association of Basketball Coaches (NABC) National Coach of the Year
    1995 National Coach of the Year by Chevrolet/CBS Sports
    1996 National Coach of the Year by Chevrolet/CBS Sports, the Associated Press (AP), United Press International (UPI), College Sports Magazine, Basketball Weekly; recipient of the Henry Iba Award (selected by the USBWA)
    2000 National Asscociation of Basketball Coaches (NABC) National Coach of the Year

    Here is a summary of his time at Purdue.

    6 time National Coach of they Year
    6 Big Ten Titles
    7 time Big Ten Coach of th Year
    18 NCAA bids( aprox 75% of the time)
    5 round of 64s
    8 round of 32s
    3 round of 16s
    2 elite 8s

  14. Mr. O 02/08/2006 at 1:18 PM #

    Vawolf: RickJ brought up Gary’s recruiting and the fact that they had missed the tournament two straight years. I added these numbers to give some perspective on Maryland, and the other ACC teams, since it this was a discussion of Maryland as a program.

    I don’t have administrative rights to put these numbers as a main topic. So I thought I would share them anyways. I have never had a post deleted, not even at at the Tarpit.

  15. PACDADDY 02/08/2006 at 4:54 PM #

    I’m curious to find out what seedings Keady had during his tenure at Purdue. It appears his success in the tourney was marginal compared to the Big titles. How many 1-2 seeds did he have?

  16. VaWolf82 02/08/2006 at 6:29 PM #

    I did some searching when I did the entry on RPI vs Seeding and only came up with brackets for the last four years.

    MrO, your original post didn’t come across to me as having much to do with MD. I didn’t delete it because I want intelligent discussion on an entry that I take the time to write…even if I don’t agree with the conclusions reached.

    I’ve left a number of PD’s posts stand for the exact same reason…even though he resorted to name calling in several of the entries I did on summarizing the last four years of the BB program. There are a few idiots that drop by from time to time that wouldn’t receive the same treatment.

    NOTE I can only delete or edit comments on entries that I prepare. I have only deleted a few SPAM posts and two or three from a few knuckle-draggers that appear to have found somewhere else to play.

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