6-2 At the Turn

=====> NC State 66 Virginia 64
I’m loving the level (and the manner) in which our community conducts conversations here. This is a real nice discussion after last night’s win that talks about some micro and macro issues. It does a very nice job of putting the micro and the macro issues into concise perspective.

As excited as I am about surviving the strongest part of State’s ACC schedule with a 6-2 record, I think that Caulton Tudor is providing a fair and accurate reality-check when he labels this a “Bad win for State” And, Tudor is being very consistent in his comments; prior to the game he shared his expectations:

The Wolfpack should win this game by 15-20 points. That Virginia will make its ACC turn at no worse than 4-4 says a lot about the coaching job that’s been done by Dave Leitao.

Right now, he would win a league coach of the year vote in a landslide. He’s completely reversed the team’s defensive and rebounding intensity. But the Cavaliers have benefitted substantially from the generally weak condition of the league.

Other than Duke, there’s no compelling evidence that the ACC has another exceptional team. The Wolfpack aspires to that level. The first step in that direction is winning big at home over outmanned opponents.

Those pre-game expectations led to the following conclusions after the game:

And really, calling this one a bad win is giving State every possible benefit of the doubt. It was an awful win, a lucky win. A 10-point underdog entering the game, Virginia outplayed State almost throughout.

The win was enough to improve State’s record to 6-2 at the turn in the ACC regular season. That is also enough for second place in the league, but not good enough for the Pack to feel comfortable. The performance State delivered Wednesday had second-round NCAA elimination written all over it.

Tudor must really hate Herb to have those thoughts. (sarcasm)

=====> Flashback
Talk about a countrast…just for fun go back almost exactly 365 days to State’s inexusable loss to the Cavs and look at what was being said at the time. It’s called winning.

=====> Did you know that Billy Cunnigham was the Kangaroo Kid?
If you did not know this…then you have not watched an ACC Basketball this season.

What the hell is the deal with Food Lion’s “Legends of the ACC” during JP Broadcasts? It should be renamed, “Legend” of the ACC, because evidently Billy Cunningham, the Kangaroo Kid, of UNC is the only legend in the conference’s history.

I’ve been watching games all year and don’t know if I have seen a different player discussed. It’s exhausting. And pretty embarassing for Food Lion.

=====> Looking Ahead
I have said it all year — NC State’s talent, depth, experience, and components (2 athletic, senior guards) really should be able to navigate 13-3 or better in this year’s Atlantic Coast Conference race. At 6-2 with road games at Duke, Carolina, and Boston College behind us, I think that this record is firmly within our grasp. (I will refrain from shouting, “It’s about friggin time”!)

Although it is a common exercise amongst the fanbase, I don’t understand how so many fans arbitrarily choose numbers to decide what represents a good season for the program without some real thought and statistical benchmarking. A quick look at history indicates that there have been 13 ACC programs to achieve a 13-3 or better record in ACC play since Herb Sendek arrived in Raleigh. Maryland, Duke, Carolina, and Wake have all done it MORE THAN ONCE. (Sendek has achieved only 3 winning seasons in the ACC in nine years – with 11-5 representing his best record).

In light of these programs’ ability to achieve such a record (in obviously tougher ACC years), I do not know why NC State shouldn’t be expected to FINALLY succeeed on a similar level with our best team in a decade. Additionally, this year’s Wolfpack schedule includes only one game against Duke and no road game at Maryland. With this kind of schedule dilution compared to the strength of the league in the past when these programs were able to achieve their 13-3 or better…then there is no reason that it is beyond the realm of acceptability to FINALLY achieve something that four other programs have each done more than once.

A couple of weeks ago, I got into heated debates on Pack Pride’s Message Boards about this very topic. The amazing thing was that because I hoped/expected/could foresee some actual success for the program, I was lambasted by many of the Herb Sendek Sunshine Squad for expecting too much (in friggin year 10). It is truly amazing, but incredibly insightful into this group’s mindset. After ten years of NOT achieving high-water marks that five different ACC programs have been able to achieve in the same time period, this set of fans STILL does not think that NC State fans deserve similar success. Obviously, they never will believe that we should achieve successes similar to our peers.

But, I see a chance this season to finally create a season of national significance and I do not apologize for wanting it nor expecting it after almost 20 years of not having one and after giving this coach a decade to deliver one.

General NCS Basketball

123 Responses to 6-2 At the Turn

  1. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 7:20 PM #

    Here is the deal, I realize that our struggles over the past two seasons in football, are due to QB play, and i hope you all agree.

    And Amato had two highly rated QBs…neither of which produced on the field. So why is it that you are so worked up over Amato?

    The thing that burns me up more than anything, is the support that Amato has gotten over the years, And the lack of support for Herb Sendek.

    In Amato’s first year with a freshman QB, State played and won their first bowl game in years. In Amato’s third year, State was nationally ranked nearly all year, finished in the top 15 in both polls (something Sendek has never done), and had arguably one of the three or four best seasons in State’s entire history. So if you don’t understand Amato’s past support, then I can’t help you. If you didn’t hear the boos (or hear about them) in Amato’s sixth year, then you just weren’t paying attention.

    In short, Amato accomplished significant milestones and earned some good will (that is running out) for some bad seasons. Sendek has yet to reach that level.

  2. J.R. 02/02/2006 at 8:13 PM #

    Look at every team in college hoops nowadays. No one fires on all cylinders for very long. We are stuggling right now, but why are the last 4 games more of an indication what kind of team we have than the previous 17. They’re in a lull right now, but I see no reason why we can’t start carving up teams again. I will say that this team doesn’t bring the right state of mind to every game. I don’t see much of a killer instinct. How many more big, early leads are we going to give away. We are not a team that can take nights off, and expect to win. I would like to see a bit more emotion from the guys. With all that said, most teams this year have some flaws and I feel like we have a puncher’s chance in March

  3. Kirk 02/02/2006 at 8:32 PM #

    Herb Sendek is in the process of doing that right now. Top sixteen team last year. Better this year. This team has what it takes to be successful deep into the season. will. Despite what some may think, they can be just as solid next year.

    The QB you speak of is the reason we were successful those years. He was and exceptional college QB that we may never see the likes of again.

  4. BJD95 02/02/2006 at 9:26 PM #

    I think you missed the point of Jeff’s exercise. It’s just as easy (if not more so) to “spin” Amato’s success as it is Sendek’s. He can drive one just as crazy with spin as the HSSS can with Sendek spin. Just stop with the spin. Sendek’s been pretty good, not great. His record doesn’t need to be spun in a positive direction to protect against imaginary “negative” spin – which in MOST cases is just people wanting more.

    The difference for Amato is not to see if he can get us more, but if and when he gets runs out of town on a rail. It’s a completely different conversation than re Sendek.

  5. Cardiac95 02/02/2006 at 9:43 PM #

    Somebody wake me up when Herb produces a season that ranks in the Top Quartile of our program’s modern history!

    Put another way….52 seasons in the ACC…..13 are CLEARLY better than Herb’s best season.

  6. smile 02/02/2006 at 10:32 PM #

    OK, just to be provocative:”IMO – any coach with a National Title is a great coach, unless he has a trail of NCAA violations in his path (ie, Jim Harrick).” So, you also mean Valvano and Sloan (and Case?), right, putting State on probation for cheating? Sendek hasn’t embarrassed State with that.
    “In Amato’s third year, State was nationally ranked nearly all year, finished in the top 15 in both polls (something Sendek has never done), and had arguably one of the three or four best seasons in State’s entire history.” Amoto finished 4th in the ACC that year I believe, and has never finished better. Sendek has finshed as high or higher in the conference in every year of Amoto’s tenure. State’s having a great run this year, and coaching makes a difference to win a close game. “With friend’s like these…..”

  7. Sammy Kent 02/02/2006 at 10:46 PM #

    [quote] imo when this team is firing on all cylinders, it has a shot to beat any team in the country head-to-head.[quote]

    And herein is the problem. Herb’s teams HAVE to be firing on all cylinders. It’s almost impossible for him to win against a quality opponent if ANYTHING goes wrong. This team has shown the POTENTIAL to change that, if Herb will forever and irrevocably shitcan the Princeton offense as a primary strategy, and let those kids play aggressive, up-tempo, POSITION basketball!!!!

  8. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 11:16 PM #

    Smile…because a program was put on probation does not mean that the program was put on probation because the coach “cheated”. Encountering NCAA violations and having coaches cheating are two completely different things that you lumped into one big universe.

    Everett Case didn’t call in point shaving bets.

    Norm Sloan didn’t play in a pick-up basketball game.

    Jim Valvano didn’t sell shoes & tickets.

    Your perception of the truth was skewed on many fronts.

  9. class of '74 02/03/2006 at 6:27 AM #

    ^absolutely. Also totally agree with VaWolf’s 7:20pm post. Chuck better pray that Trestman can find, mold or create a QB out of Stone, Greco or Evans or he is toast. The memory of PR is fading fast and Chuck has done a poor job with our offensive schemes since PR left. IMHO Chuck is another peter principle example, a defense coordinator masquerading as a head coach. I have no doubt of his knowledge of defense but the other side of the ball is a different matter.

    Oh, and although you can’t make career judgements based on one game, last night is an example of why I Gw is not in my top tier of coaches. The old Lefthander was and still is the best they ever had at College Park IMO.

  10. Mr. O 02/03/2006 at 8:04 AM #

    Amato’s success came 4 seasons ago. Herb’s success is recent with what looks like his best team this year.

    Personally, I support both coaches but the basketball program is on an upward trend while the football program is a downward trend. If you look at basketball, then we are better positioned to win next year and beyond because Herb has been recruiting very well. Amato just signed the worst class of his tenure.

    I have always said there is no sense in discussing the two coaches or programs together because NC State football and basketball are very different. I don’t think Amato’s blind support is there anymore. I think we saw many NC State fans turn on him last year, so I would say he is receiving the same treatment as Herb Sendek overall.

  11. Mr. O 02/03/2006 at 8:06 AM #

    Jeff: I posed this question on another thread, but I will put it here since you brought up the NCAA scandals.

    I read in the most recent Poop Sheet that Jim Valvano graduated a single player in his tenure at NC State. I agree that he didn’t sell shoes or tickets. But he also clearly didn’t get the job done in terms of academics either.

  12. Trout 02/03/2006 at 8:12 AM #

    “Let’s ask it you — all else being equal…would rather be 16-5 against Georgia Tech over the last decade OR be 5-16 against Georgia Tech and have played in a National Championship game?

    Does anyone REALLY have to think to answer that”

    Of course, from a fan’s perspective, I’d probably rather have the Final 4. However, from a “this coach is better than this coach” perspective, how can you not look at HEAD to HEAD as the #1 criteria? Is not the objective to win? This site punishes Herb enough for his poor record against Duke and UNC, now he’s going to be slighted for having a stellar record against Paul Hewitt, but since Paul played for the title all the Ws are put aside?

    One other question. I keep hearing this term “Herb Sendek Sunshine Squad”, or HSSS. Could you please tell me what criteria puts one in this category?

  13. VaWolf82 02/03/2006 at 8:29 AM #

    If you look at basketball, then we are better positioned to win next year and beyond because Herb has been recruiting very well. Amato just signed the worst class of his tenure.

    You’re mixing several different pieces of “stuff” together and drawing conclusions….that may turn out to be correct or not. But it’s important to separate fact from speculation…and recognize which is which.

    The facts are W/L. Using that measure the BB team was essentially stagnant over the last four years….with this year being obviously better. With the player losses after this year (the total of which is unknown at this point) and a lower rated class of FR coming in…it is impossible to say with any conviction that the BB team is poised for sucess next year. (I would think that almost every State fan is worried about next year in FB.)

    The impact of recruiting is far different between the two sports. One recruiting class can turn an entire BB program around almost immediately. Not true for FB. The converse is also true….one below-average recruiting class will not destroy a FB program. The worst two years of recruiting in Herb’s tenure are juniors and seniors this year….funny how things work out.

  14. smile 02/03/2006 at 9:11 AM #

    “In 1973, Thompson helped the Wolfpack to a 27-0 record, but they weren’t able to play in the NCAA tournament because of probation related to his recruitment. “

  15. smile 02/03/2006 at 9:14 AM #

    Valvano: “He coached 19 seasons, nine with N.C. State, before allegations of point shaving and other NCAA rules violations led to his resignation in 1990.”

  16. Mr. O 02/03/2006 at 9:24 AM #

    “The worst two years of recruiting in Herb’s tenure are juniors and seniors this year….funny how things work out.”

    Which is exactly why I speculated that the basketball program is poised to be successful in the future. Herb’s best recruiting classes are this years sophmores and freshmen. It also looks like we have two contributors from this year’s class in Larry Davis and Dan Werner. It is definitely speculation and guesswork in terms of judging our position for future success, but I don’t know of any business that doesn’t do some type of forecasting.

    Next year our top 8 players will look like this:
    Atsur – top 50
    Simmons – top 30
    Brackman – top 40
    Grant – top 75
    Costner – top 25
    Fells – top 40
    McCauley – top 100
    Davis – top 75
    Werner – top 100

    Based on “paper rankings”, it will be one of Herb’s most talented teams or at least talented enough to continue the type of success we have had the last 4.5 years.

    Stagnant? We have now set a record for consecutive weeks being ranked that went back to 1989. It appears that streak should continue for the entire season. Being ranked almost an entire basketball season, except for the first week or two of the polls, seems like another step for the program to take upwards.

    I don’t understand the HSSS either. NC State is having its best basketball season 1989. It seems logical that people should be at least mildly happy with the direction of the program and certainly not mocked or criticized.

    BJD95: The spin goes both ways in these types of discussions.

  17. Trout 02/03/2006 at 9:26 AM #

    Talking probation and our history:

    Everett Case: Jeff stated that “Everett Case didn’t call in point shaving bets.” NC State was not put on probation for the point shaving stuff in the 1960s, that impacted several ACC schools and many northeastern schools. Everett Case was put on probation for the illegal recruitment of Jackie Moreland. And in this case, it was DIRECTLY related to Everett Case. They gave Jackie Moreland cash, a car and his girlfriend money to pay her tuition at Meredith. Moreland never came to NC State, but NC State was put on probation for basketball AND football. At the time, it was the worst NCAA punishment in NCAA history, and only trails the dismantling of the SMU program all time. Imagine that, NC State was put on FOOTBALL probation for a basketball violation. In 1957, NC State would have gone to the Orange Bowl, but that probation kept them from going.

    Norm Sloan: The illegal tryout has to be the biggest bullshit violation in NCAA history. In today’s world, you wouldnt even lose a scholarship over it.

    Jimmy V: The NCAA investigation found no violations against Coach V. Was NC State put on probation? Yes. So it did happen under V’s watch.

    And let’s make sure we realize the difference between “allegations” and violations.

  18. Trout 02/03/2006 at 9:27 AM #

    ” We have now set a record for consecutive weeks being ranked that went back to 1989.”

    That cant be correct. NC State spent the entire 1973, 1974 and 1975 seasons ranked.

  19. Mr. O 02/03/2006 at 9:31 AM #

    Trout: Sorry, I meant that we now have the longest streak of being ranked since 1989.

  20. Jim 02/03/2006 at 9:42 AM #

    A few things.

    To whoever was talking about the lack of support for the basketball team under Herb. I think there has been tremendous support. We have been in the top 20 in attendance every year we have been in the RBC Center. To me, that is an AMAZING accomplishment when you consider the state of our program when we moved in and for the first couple years in the RBC. We were bad and had been bad for multiple generations of students, yet we filled the place up. I don’t get how you can say that we don’t support Herb/the program when our attendance rank has far, far surpassed our program’s rank for several years running, and puts us consitently among the nation’s best. Also, anticipating the obvious retort, I don’t think you can measure “support” or lack thereof by the number of jackasses on the internet who constantly complain. Every school has jackasses on the internet who constantly complain.

    Really, the gulf we have here is between fans who (rightly or wrongly) made up their minds for good that Herb isn’t the guy who should be here due to his first 5 years and those who didn’t. Those who are convinced he should be gone (or should have been gone) due to his first 5 years may be exactly right. I don’t mean to act like I know it all. Maybe they are right. The way I look at it, we are where we are and I’m making the best of it.

  21. RickJ 02/03/2006 at 10:39 AM #

    Good discussions on a variety of topics – my take on a few:

    How did Notre Dame become terrible after we thrashed them in the Gator Bowl? They were 10 – 3 that year against a great schedule with wins over Michigan & Florida State. USC crushed them 44 -13 in the final game of the year but USC was beginning their incredible run at this juncture. This was the one team we had that matched Rivers with a good defense. I think we could have beaten all but a very few teams at the end of that year. It definitely represented one of our football program peak performances.

    Coaches don’t always cause a team to go on probation but they are responsible.

    Mr. O – The article in the Sports Journal by Eddy Landreth (UNC’s SID at the Chapel Hill news) stated “During an extended stretch of the 10 season Jim Valvano era, the coach had only one of his recruits graduate from State.” That is a very misleading statement. It is fair to say that about 33% of the recruit’s V brought in ended up with a degree from NC State. This may not be a stellar record but it is nothing like the impression left by the above statement.

    The point shaving allegations during V’s time are a joke. Even the N&O reports put very little credence in the evidence. Every night of the week there are jackasses losing bets that make point shaving allegations.

  22. Mr. O 02/03/2006 at 11:10 AM #

    RickJ: I wonder if there are any places to find our graduation rates during the Valvano era. I don’t doubt your 33% number, but it would just be interesting to see it published somewhere. I think I remember that number from Valvano’s book IIRC.

    Eddy Landreth is the UNC beat writer for the Chapel Hills news, right? If he was the SID, then that would be a pretty big coup for UNC to get a paid employee a job at the local newspaper too. 🙂

    Also, there isn’t any reason for any State fan to downplay our win against Notre Dame. In the grand scheme of things you can always down play wins and boost losses as moral victories. Those things tend to even out over time, so that is why I never downplay any of our wins for either program anymore. Wins are wins and I happy to get them anytime.

  23. RickJ 02/03/2006 at 11:16 AM #

    O – the Landreth SID reference was a joke. Of course, the best jokes always contain an element of truth.

  24. VaWolf82 02/03/2006 at 11:21 AM #

    Next year our top 8 players will look like this:
    Simmons – top 30
    Brackman – top 40

    Are you sure? Let’s wait and see what next year’s team looks like before we start making too many projections. The guard position is critical for next year. State only has Atsur and Grant as returning players. I don’t think we can count on Fells, Davis, or Ferguson until we see whether they will be playing or not….though Fells appearance early on the road at Clemson has to be a good sign.

    Stagnant? We have now set a record for consecutive weeks being ranked that went back to 1989.

  25. VaWolf82 02/03/2006 at 11:22 AM #

    Stagnant? We have now set a record for consecutive weeks being ranked that went back to 1989.

    I was referring to the past four season and did not include this one in that classification.

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