6-2 At the Turn

=====> NC State 66 Virginia 64
I’m loving the level (and the manner) in which our community conducts conversations here. This is a real nice discussion after last night’s win that talks about some micro and macro issues. It does a very nice job of putting the micro and the macro issues into concise perspective.

As excited as I am about surviving the strongest part of State’s ACC schedule with a 6-2 record, I think that Caulton Tudor is providing a fair and accurate reality-check when he labels this a “Bad win for State” And, Tudor is being very consistent in his comments; prior to the game he shared his expectations:

The Wolfpack should win this game by 15-20 points. That Virginia will make its ACC turn at no worse than 4-4 says a lot about the coaching job that’s been done by Dave Leitao.

Right now, he would win a league coach of the year vote in a landslide. He’s completely reversed the team’s defensive and rebounding intensity. But the Cavaliers have benefitted substantially from the generally weak condition of the league.

Other than Duke, there’s no compelling evidence that the ACC has another exceptional team. The Wolfpack aspires to that level. The first step in that direction is winning big at home over outmanned opponents.

Those pre-game expectations led to the following conclusions after the game:

And really, calling this one a bad win is giving State every possible benefit of the doubt. It was an awful win, a lucky win. A 10-point underdog entering the game, Virginia outplayed State almost throughout.

The win was enough to improve State’s record to 6-2 at the turn in the ACC regular season. That is also enough for second place in the league, but not good enough for the Pack to feel comfortable. The performance State delivered Wednesday had second-round NCAA elimination written all over it.

Tudor must really hate Herb to have those thoughts. (sarcasm)

=====> Flashback
Talk about a countrast…just for fun go back almost exactly 365 days to State’s inexusable loss to the Cavs and look at what was being said at the time. It’s called winning.

=====> Did you know that Billy Cunnigham was the Kangaroo Kid?
If you did not know this…then you have not watched an ACC Basketball this season.

What the hell is the deal with Food Lion’s “Legends of the ACC” during JP Broadcasts? It should be renamed, “Legend” of the ACC, because evidently Billy Cunningham, the Kangaroo Kid, of UNC is the only legend in the conference’s history.

I’ve been watching games all year and don’t know if I have seen a different player discussed. It’s exhausting. And pretty embarassing for Food Lion.

=====> Looking Ahead
I have said it all year — NC State’s talent, depth, experience, and components (2 athletic, senior guards) really should be able to navigate 13-3 or better in this year’s Atlantic Coast Conference race. At 6-2 with road games at Duke, Carolina, and Boston College behind us, I think that this record is firmly within our grasp. (I will refrain from shouting, “It’s about friggin time”!)

Although it is a common exercise amongst the fanbase, I don’t understand how so many fans arbitrarily choose numbers to decide what represents a good season for the program without some real thought and statistical benchmarking. A quick look at history indicates that there have been 13 ACC programs to achieve a 13-3 or better record in ACC play since Herb Sendek arrived in Raleigh. Maryland, Duke, Carolina, and Wake have all done it MORE THAN ONCE. (Sendek has achieved only 3 winning seasons in the ACC in nine years – with 11-5 representing his best record).

In light of these programs’ ability to achieve such a record (in obviously tougher ACC years), I do not know why NC State shouldn’t be expected to FINALLY succeeed on a similar level with our best team in a decade. Additionally, this year’s Wolfpack schedule includes only one game against Duke and no road game at Maryland. With this kind of schedule dilution compared to the strength of the league in the past when these programs were able to achieve their 13-3 or better…then there is no reason that it is beyond the realm of acceptability to FINALLY achieve something that four other programs have each done more than once.

A couple of weeks ago, I got into heated debates on Pack Pride’s Message Boards about this very topic. The amazing thing was that because I hoped/expected/could foresee some actual success for the program, I was lambasted by many of the Herb Sendek Sunshine Squad for expecting too much (in friggin year 10). It is truly amazing, but incredibly insightful into this group’s mindset. After ten years of NOT achieving high-water marks that five different ACC programs have been able to achieve in the same time period, this set of fans STILL does not think that NC State fans deserve similar success. Obviously, they never will believe that we should achieve successes similar to our peers.

But, I see a chance this season to finally create a season of national significance and I do not apologize for wanting it nor expecting it after almost 20 years of not having one and after giving this coach a decade to deliver one.

General NCS Basketball

123 Responses to 6-2 At the Turn

  1. BJD95 02/02/2006 at 1:39 PM #

    ^ Jim, I don’t think a single blogger here disagrees with your compartaive assessment of Sendek and Amato right now. Some thoughts on the Amato matter are forthcoming.

  2. HeelsFan 02/02/2006 at 1:46 PM #

    I think any win in the ACC is a “good” win……..When a team has three Seniors on the court at the end of games, “good” things happen. Congrats.

    Yes, I wish we could see more “legends”……although I do enjoy seeing the Kangaroo Kid scoring in Reynolds! 😉

    Perhaps, Vann Williford will be highlighted next year??

  3. Mr. O 02/02/2006 at 2:14 PM #

    Vawolf82: You mentioned above that only a Final Four and top 5 recruiting class would give you hope because one year isn’t enough to win you back. Jeff has said multiple times that 13-3 is a minimum expectation for this team. I think these standards are essentially being set so that Herb is destined to fail.

    So I put in the next best result to a Final Four, an Elite 8, and 12 wins instead of 13 as a result to see what the most recent 5 year period of Herb’s career would like with these accomplishments. Of course it hasn’t happened, but it most definitely can happen (we are 13th in the Sagarin, so projecting us a top 8 team isn’t that much of a stretch).

    To further add perspective about “peak seasons”, Herb’s best overall ACC winning percentage is 68.75% in a single ACC season. That is our 11th best ACC season overall.

    We have had 10 seasons better than this in the history of our program(19.2% overall or about once every 5 years). Prior to Herb’s arrival, we beat this mark 23.2% of the time.

    Six of those seasons were with Everett Case as our coach and were accomplished by 1965. In the last 40 years, NC State has only had 4 seasons better than Herb’s “peak” ACC season and two of those were with David Thompson. Or if you look at the periods after Case and before Sendek, then we have only exceeded this mark 4 times in 30 years(13.3%).

    1955 85.7% Case
    1956 78.6% Case
    1958 71.4% Case
    1959 85.7% Case
    1962 71.4% Case
    1965 71.4% Case/Maravich
    1973 100% Sloan
    1974 100% Sloan
    1988 71.4% Valvano (round of 64)
    1989 71.4% Valvano (round of 16)

    If we win 12 ACC games this year, then that will be the 6th best single ACC season record in the history of our program. He would have the same number of top 12 seasons as both Norm Sloan and Jim Valvano and can surpass Valvano’s peak season with a 12th win. And in Valvano’s “peak seasons”, he flamed out in the 1st round one year and only made the Sweet 16 the next.

    In terms of making an Elite 8 appearance, we have reached the Elite 8 twice and won two titles. Prior to Herb’s arrival, we advanced to the Elite 8 or beyond at a rate of 9.3% or once every 10 years.

    If Herb were to go 12-4 and make the Final 8, then it would be one of the top seasons in the history of NC State basketball. He would be advancing to the Elite 8 at a 10% rate over his career just like the coaches who he followed. He would be meeting or exceeding the 68.75% mark in 20% of the seasons he coached compared to 23.3% for the coaches he followed. Of all the coaches before, only Les Robinson was dealt with a bigger mess of a program than Herb Sendek as Sloan and Valvano both inherited big time winners.

    Herb has a real opportunity this year IMO.

  4. Trout 02/02/2006 at 2:22 PM #

    NC State has reached the Elite 8 5 times:

    1950 Final 4 – Case
    1974 NCAA Title – Sloan
    1983 NCAA Title – V
    1985 Lost to St Johns – V
    1986 Lost to Kansas – V

  5. Chief93 02/02/2006 at 2:29 PM #

    ^^ Yeah, Mr. O, but what about the emotional distress he caused us those first five years?
    🙂

  6. Rick 02/02/2006 at 2:32 PM #

    ^All that and still no championship.
    Set your sights low and you are bound to hit them.

  7. Kirk 02/02/2006 at 2:33 PM #

    Thank You Jeff. Its funny, no matter how much the football program struggles, you never see State fans setting up a petition for Chuck Dynamite’s job. Too many State fans bow down to Chuck Amato, and want to show Herb Sendek the door. I am so sick of it. What has Chuck Amato done that is so great?
    As far as it taking a long time for Herb Sendek to have a successful program…the probation we went through back when V left…changed our ability to recruit basketball players for a long time. We may never get back to competiting with UNC and Duke for recruits, that is just a fact.
    But Herb Sendek has found talented players that will fit into this system. And they are still coming. This year really marks the first time we have had an entire team that has bought into the system. Next year we will have a solid team as well. We will lose some experience, but there is some talent on the bench that has not even really seen much playing time.

    As far as the “ugly” wins…Yeah we havent played our best basketball in the last 4 games starting with the Wake Forest game. But we only lost one of those games. Other years we may have lost all 4 playing that way. Good teams find a way to win even when they dont play well. We had to hit big shots to win and we did. We played our best basketball at BC and against GW. And those are both very good teams. I believe that State will get back to that form at the right time. Herb always has his team prepared for the tourney.

  8. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 2:56 PM #

    Vawolf82: You mentioned above that only a Final Four and top 5 recruiting class would give you hope because one year isn’t enough to win you back.

    You’ve misinterpreted what I wrote. I gave the FF and top recruiting class as one example….not a make/break mark.

    Making the S-16 last year after the miserable play in Jan is a good mark for Herb. (The play in Jan is a bad mark.) A S-16 or E-8 would be another good one. The list can go on and on.

    “Reasonable” goals won’t quickly build my confidence. Greatly exceeding expectations builds confidence in the future. Exceeding expectations multiple times leads to loyal fan bases, even during a down year.

  9. class of '74 02/02/2006 at 3:00 PM #

    Without looking over any records I can recall only one player we went head to head in recruiting with Duke and that was DT. We have always travelled in different circles for talent than Duke. The probation referred to was the least of the problems, it was Larry “I could care less about athletics” Monteith, Toad Turner and their willing accomplices that ruined our athletics program! And as to a “system” it has resembled a moving target during Herb’s tenure.

    I agree on the good teams comment and this may be a good team but consistency is not our hallmark based on the recent past or our coaches history.

  10. newswolf 02/02/2006 at 4:02 PM #

    Its funny, no matter how much the football program struggles, you never see State fans setting up a petition for Chuck Dynamite’s job

    let amato go 5-7 next year. OR let him have a losing record in his 9th season. How many times has Fowler had to issue a press release suppring Herb Sendek? never.

  11. newswolf 02/02/2006 at 4:04 PM #

    good discussion BTW on all sides

  12. Mr. O 02/02/2006 at 4:10 PM #

    Trout: I got those numbers from Charlie’s ACC site. I should have said that I got my numbers from the beginning of the ACC and did not include any years prior to the formation of the ACC. I had no agenda in leaving those out. I just didn’t have the numbers handy.

    Also, I realize that we could have likely made more runs to Final 8s and beyond had the NCAA tournament always had an expanded field. So I realize that my numbers and statistics aren’t necessarily comparing apples to apples. But these numbers still do offer some perspective on our program’s history compared to Herb’s performance during his tenure. Especially when you take into account that Herb inherited a program coming off the worst 6 year stretch in its history by far and one of the worst 6 year stretches of any program in ACC history. Would Valvano or Sloan had been successful as they were if they had inherited the Les Robinson program? Obviously not.

  13. Mr. O 02/02/2006 at 4:25 PM #

    “^All that and still no championship.
    Set your sights low and you are bound to hit them.”

    Rick: Do you know how many years of coaching in the ACC at Maryland before Gary Williams won a title? 13 years.

    Do you know how many years of coaching he had prior to arriving at Maryland? 11 other seasons with 7 of those at a major conference schools.

    Gary did have one other conference title in his first season at American University, but it took him 25 seasons of coaching to win another conference title.

    Measuring coaches by titles would get almost every coach fired.

  14. class of '74 02/02/2006 at 4:34 PM #

    ^now that assumes GW is a great coach. I’ve never said that and personally I don’t think he is but he does have a NCAA championship! Again personally I think there are two great coaches in the ACC and then you have a group of good to above average guys. We rarely see bad coaches at this level anymore! That’s what in my mind makes being an ACC coach such a tough job there are no patsies it’s a nightly grind.

  15. Trout 02/02/2006 at 4:36 PM #

    ^ Put me down in the Gary Williams = Great Coach club. The job he has done at Maryland has been nothing short of a miracle, considering what he took over.

    IMO – any coach with a National Title is a great coach, unless he has a trail of NCAA violations in his path (ie, Jim Harrick).

  16. class of '74 02/02/2006 at 4:46 PM #

    ^he took over a mess no doubt! Funny too, I was going to mention Harrick and he ain’t no great coach!

    My Ranking of ACC coaches:
    1a. K
    1b. Roy
    3. GW
    4. Hewitt
    5. Herb
    6. Skip
    7. Greenberg
    8. Haith
    9. Purnell
    10. Hamilton
    Skinner and Leitao have not been around here long enough to be ranked.

  17. Trout 02/02/2006 at 4:49 PM #

    ^ So Hewitt’s Final 4 run carries more weight than Herb truly owning him head to head?

  18. Trout 02/02/2006 at 4:50 PM #

    And I dont think Roy deserves a 1b with K. K stands alone at #1, with Rot #2, IMO.

    I see more evidence to rank Prosser ahead of Herb than I do Hewitt.

  19. Mr. O 02/02/2006 at 4:56 PM #

    Herb has a chance this year to put himself only behind the obvious top.

  20. Mr. O 02/02/2006 at 5:00 PM #

    Let’s try that again, Herb has a chance to put himself IMO only behind K, Roy and Williams in the ACC.

    Classof74: Gary Williams is a Hall of Fame coach. There are guys who have been more successful, no arguments there.

  21. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 5:31 PM #

    Its funny, no matter how much the football program struggles, you never see State fans setting up a petition for Chuck Dynamite’s job

    You mean the Chuck Dynamite that got booed on national television this year?

    Struggle = 5 bowls in 6 years (on par with the most successful coach in NC State history, Dick Sheridan), a season with the most wins in the history of the program, a 3-3 record vs Carolina, and a #11 finish with a New Year’s Day Bowl win over the greatest football program in history.

    Welcome to HSSS analytics.

    newswolf said it correctly — do you really think that State fans won’t be riding Chuck out of town on a rail with a losing season this year?

    He would be advancing to the Elite 8 at a 10% rate over his career just like the coaches who he followed.

    You mean like Jim Valvano’s 30% advance rate to the Elite 8 despite coaching only 5 years in an NCAA Tournament that accepted 64 teams?

    V’s 30% = Herb’s 10%?

    In a 64 team tournament world, OF COURSE coaches should have higher advance rates than past coaches. Sloan couldn’t even go the NCAA Tournament with David Thompson as a senior.

    Ahhh…if only Sloan & V would have had the RBC to recruit to. How come V doesn’t get an adjustment for having to recruit against the great Dean Smith and the new Dean Dome? Every thing in today’s world gets an excuse-adjustment. 🙂

  22. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 5:35 PM #

    So Hewitt’s Final 4 run carries more weight than Herb truly owning him head to head?

    I don’t know. I think that only a recruit in New York City or California or Texas could answer that question.

    Let’s ask it you — all else being equal…would rather be 16-5 against Georgia Tech over the last decade OR be 5-16 against Georgia Tech and have played in a National Championship game?

    Does anyone REALLY have to think to answer that?

  23. J.R. 02/02/2006 at 5:38 PM #

    Just a few random thoughts:
    *We can talk all we want trying to figure out how good this team is, but imo when this team is firing on all cylinders, it has a shot to beat any team in the country head-to-head. That fact alone makes me excited about the postseason. Can we lose 1st round? Sure. Do I think that with the right draw, we can make a really deep run? Absolutely.
    *Someone mentioned head-to-head recruiting with Duke. I add Shavlik Randolph to that conversation. I also think that Duke was interested in Chris Wright. I don’t want to recruit all the guys that Duke does, but I think slowly the kids are starting to look at us a bit differently.
    *A question for the fans who would like a new coach, Who would you hire in Herb’s place?

  24. Kirk 02/02/2006 at 6:14 PM #

    “Struggle = 5 bowls in 6 years (on par with the most successful coach in NC State history, Dick Sheridan), a season with the most wins in the history of the program, a 3-3 record vs Carolina, and a #11 finish with a New Year’s Day Bowl win over the greatest football program in history.”

    The win over the greatest football program in history was a joke. ND did not deserve to be in that game, and it was proven by the outcome.

    Thanks to a rule change in eligibility, we made the Illustrious car care bowl this year. If wins against div 1AA did not count, it would have been two years in a row that we did not make a bowl game. 3-3 against Carolina…0-2 in the last two years.

    Here is the deal, I realize that our struggles over the past two seasons in football, are due to QB play, and i hope you all agree.

    The thing that burns me up more than anything, is the support that Amato has gotten over the years, And the lack of support for Herb Sendek. When I left the basketball game last year and saw notes on everyones car to petition the removal of Herb Sendek as coach, I was so mad. At another basketball game, they are booing the basketball team, but yet at halftime we give the football team a standing ovasion for an underachieving victory in the Tangerine bowl.
    State fans set the bar so high for Herb, just because we were a powerhouse in college basketball a loooong time ago.
    Ive got nothing against Amato, I just want the same support for Herb Sendek.

  25. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 6:17 PM #

    imo when this team is firing on all cylinders, it has a shot to beat any team in the country head-to-head.

    The key word in this is “WHEN”. The question I have is why hasn’t the team been close to that for the last two weeks?

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