6-2 At the Turn

=====> NC State 66 Virginia 64
I’m loving the level (and the manner) in which our community conducts conversations here. This is a real nice discussion after last night’s win that talks about some micro and macro issues. It does a very nice job of putting the micro and the macro issues into concise perspective.

As excited as I am about surviving the strongest part of State’s ACC schedule with a 6-2 record, I think that Caulton Tudor is providing a fair and accurate reality-check when he labels this a “Bad win for State” And, Tudor is being very consistent in his comments; prior to the game he shared his expectations:

The Wolfpack should win this game by 15-20 points. That Virginia will make its ACC turn at no worse than 4-4 says a lot about the coaching job that’s been done by Dave Leitao.

Right now, he would win a league coach of the year vote in a landslide. He’s completely reversed the team’s defensive and rebounding intensity. But the Cavaliers have benefitted substantially from the generally weak condition of the league.

Other than Duke, there’s no compelling evidence that the ACC has another exceptional team. The Wolfpack aspires to that level. The first step in that direction is winning big at home over outmanned opponents.

Those pre-game expectations led to the following conclusions after the game:

And really, calling this one a bad win is giving State every possible benefit of the doubt. It was an awful win, a lucky win. A 10-point underdog entering the game, Virginia outplayed State almost throughout.

The win was enough to improve State’s record to 6-2 at the turn in the ACC regular season. That is also enough for second place in the league, but not good enough for the Pack to feel comfortable. The performance State delivered Wednesday had second-round NCAA elimination written all over it.

Tudor must really hate Herb to have those thoughts. (sarcasm)

=====> Flashback
Talk about a countrast…just for fun go back almost exactly 365 days to State’s inexusable loss to the Cavs and look at what was being said at the time. It’s called winning.

=====> Did you know that Billy Cunnigham was the Kangaroo Kid?
If you did not know this…then you have not watched an ACC Basketball this season.

What the hell is the deal with Food Lion’s “Legends of the ACC” during JP Broadcasts? It should be renamed, “Legend” of the ACC, because evidently Billy Cunningham, the Kangaroo Kid, of UNC is the only legend in the conference’s history.

I’ve been watching games all year and don’t know if I have seen a different player discussed. It’s exhausting. And pretty embarassing for Food Lion.

=====> Looking Ahead
I have said it all year — NC State’s talent, depth, experience, and components (2 athletic, senior guards) really should be able to navigate 13-3 or better in this year’s Atlantic Coast Conference race. At 6-2 with road games at Duke, Carolina, and Boston College behind us, I think that this record is firmly within our grasp. (I will refrain from shouting, “It’s about friggin time”!)

Although it is a common exercise amongst the fanbase, I don’t understand how so many fans arbitrarily choose numbers to decide what represents a good season for the program without some real thought and statistical benchmarking. A quick look at history indicates that there have been 13 ACC programs to achieve a 13-3 or better record in ACC play since Herb Sendek arrived in Raleigh. Maryland, Duke, Carolina, and Wake have all done it MORE THAN ONCE. (Sendek has achieved only 3 winning seasons in the ACC in nine years – with 11-5 representing his best record).

In light of these programs’ ability to achieve such a record (in obviously tougher ACC years), I do not know why NC State shouldn’t be expected to FINALLY succeeed on a similar level with our best team in a decade. Additionally, this year’s Wolfpack schedule includes only one game against Duke and no road game at Maryland. With this kind of schedule dilution compared to the strength of the league in the past when these programs were able to achieve their 13-3 or better…then there is no reason that it is beyond the realm of acceptability to FINALLY achieve something that four other programs have each done more than once.

A couple of weeks ago, I got into heated debates on Pack Pride’s Message Boards about this very topic. The amazing thing was that because I hoped/expected/could foresee some actual success for the program, I was lambasted by many of the Herb Sendek Sunshine Squad for expecting too much (in friggin year 10). It is truly amazing, but incredibly insightful into this group’s mindset. After ten years of NOT achieving high-water marks that five different ACC programs have been able to achieve in the same time period, this set of fans STILL does not think that NC State fans deserve similar success. Obviously, they never will believe that we should achieve successes similar to our peers.

But, I see a chance this season to finally create a season of national significance and I do not apologize for wanting it nor expecting it after almost 20 years of not having one and after giving this coach a decade to deliver one.

General NCS Basketball

123 Responses to 6-2 At the Turn

  1. Mr. O 02/02/2006 at 10:17 AM #

    Wake is last in the ACC this year. Maryland missed the NCAA tournament last year. GT is 2nd to last in the ACC this year. I know we all want “peak seasons”, but I certainly don’t want the opposite of peak seasons like these programs are producing.

    V won 71% of his ACC games twice in 10 years. 13-3 would be an 81% winning percentage. 11-5 would be a 65% winning percentage.

    Herb’s record in the ACC tournament the last 4 years is 7-4. He is also
    4-4 in the NCAA tournament.

  2. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 10:18 AM #

    if we win 11-13 games and make the final 8, then would those results give you hope for our program with the current coaching regime?

    Speaking only for myself, I didn’t lose faith in Herb because of one season…and it will take more than one season to win my confidence back. One or two wins in the ACCT and one or two wins in the NCAAT wouldn’t change my feelings substantionally….and no, I don’t think Herb should be fired. I just wouldn’t have any confidence that State would ever progress beyond “stuck on pretty good”.

    Though a Final Four and a top-5 recruiting class to go along with Chris Wright would certainly go a long way…even if next year is bumpy.

  3. Mr. O 02/02/2006 at 10:19 AM #

    Sorry, 11-5 would be 68.75% which Herb has done once already.

    Herb’s record in the ACC semis the last 4 years is 2-2.

  4. Trout 02/02/2006 at 10:28 AM #

    From Jeff: “How different schools have won at least 12 games in the ACC since FSU entered? How many times has it happened?”

    Different schools = 7 (Duke, FSU, UNC, Maryland, UVA, GT, Wake).

    Since Herb became coach = 4 (Duke, UNC, Maryland and Wake).

    How many times = Duke, 9. UNC, 4. Maryland, 3. Wake, 3. GT, 1. FSU, 1. UVA, 1.

    Since Herb became coach = Duke, 7. UNC, 3. Maryland, 2. Wake, 2.

  5. Mr. O 02/02/2006 at 10:28 AM #

    Vawolf82: One season? How about 5 seasons?

    Let’s assume Final 8, ACC tourney finals and 12-4 in the ACC to see what this 5 year stretch would look like:

    7-5 NCAA tourney record
    9-5 ACC tourney record
    48-32 in ACC regular season (68.5%)
    5 NCAA bids
    1 round of 64
    2 rounds of 32
    1 Sweet 16 coming in the 4th year
    1 Elite 8 coming in the 5th year

    Along, with a nice recruiting class for next year and Chris Wright, a top 6 player according to Bob Gibbons, already in the fold.

    Only a Final Four this year and a top 5 recruiting class would give you hope?

  6. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 10:47 AM #

    How about 5 seasons?

    Surely you jest. You sound like PD, including speculation about the future as part of an evaluation. Every NC State coach since the formation of the ACC has won the ACCT within three years of coming to Raleigh….except 2. Those four NCAAT appearances that so many like to proclaim resulted in 4-4 record and one S-16. That leaves with a choice of two seasons as Herb’s best:

    1) 2004…..Second place regular season finish in the country’s toughest conference….followed by record breaking collapses in the second round of the ACCT and NCAAT.

    2) 2005…..7-9 conference record….lost in the ACCT semi’s to Duke….Made the Sweet 16

    These accomplishments keep a coach’s job secure…not build hope for the future. Right now, Herb lags far behind Gene Keady…and I want far more than Keady ever produced at Purdue.

    Only a Final Four this year and a top 5 recruiting class would give you hope?

    Not what I said. What I said was that it will take more than one good year to win my confidence back…..but accomplishing something truly great would obviously have an impact.

  7. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 10:48 AM #

    “Let’s assume Final 8”

    Why? This is really a key point in people’s perspective of the program.

    NINE and a HALF YEARS. Multiple embarassing collapses. A horrible record in close games. A single Sweet 16 performance. Not a single RPI finish better than 16. A horrendous record against NCAA Tournament teams and RPI teams in the Top 25.

    Why in the world would you throw out a “let’s assume a Final 8”?

    Why not just assume a National Championship?

    I certainly WANT it to happen. I’m not saying that it CAN’T happen…but, it is ludicrous to assume anything like this before it does happen in light of the consistent performance created by Sendek at NC State.

  8. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 10:54 AM #

    “How many different schools have won at least 12 games in the ACC since FSU entered? How many times has it happened?�

    Seven Different schools since FSU entered the league = Duke, FSU, UNC, Maryland, UVA, GT, Wake

    Four different schools since Herb became coach = Duke, UNC, Maryland and Wake.

    It has happened 22 times since the league welcomed FSU = Duke, 9. UNC, 4. Maryland, 3. Wake, 3. GT, 1. FSU, 1. UVA, 1.

    It has happened 14 times since Herb arrived = Duke, 7. UNC, 3. Maryland, 2. Wake, 2.

    IMHO…^THIS is the THE crux of the MACRO conversation about the management of NC State Basketball’s program for the last 16 years – including the Fowler/Sendek love fest.

    Since Florida State arrived in the league, ONLY NC State and Clemson have not won at least 12 games in an ACC season (ignoring, of course, the teams that just joined.

    It has happened 14 times since Herb arrived.

    WHY should NC State fans NOT expect to be able to do something that every school in the ACC EXCEPT CLEMSON has been able to do in 16 years? Why are so many fans so complacent to never achieve something close to what everyone else can achieve? We aren’t asking that it happens every year. We are asking for it to happen once a decade or so. Why are fans labeled as wanting “too much” or “impatient” when the EXACT OPPOSITE is true?

  9. Trout 02/02/2006 at 11:03 AM #

    ^ Agree on the macro issue, disagree on the 16 year view. I dont see what relevance Les’ 6 years have, except that I didnt expect Herb to win 12 ACC games in any of hist first 2-3 seasons. I do expect 12 wins this season.

    Since Herb has been the coach, 4 different ACC programs have won at least 12 ACC games – Duke, UNC, Maryland and Wake. 3 of those teams have played in multiple Final 4s during that time frame, and all 3 have won NCAA titles.

    So of the 9 ACC schools, 4 have achieved this 12 win level multiple times, 5 have not, since Herb became the coach.

  10. Rick 02/02/2006 at 11:05 AM #

    Jeff: So if we win 11-13 games and make the final 8, then would those results give you hope for our program with the current coaching regime?”
    My answer is no. A final four or ACC championship makes it a yes.

  11. Rick 02/02/2006 at 11:07 AM #

    “Wake is last in the ACC this year. Maryland missed the NCAA tournament last year. GT is 2nd to last in the ACC this year. I know we all want “peak seasonsâ€?, but I certainly don’t want the opposite of peak seasons like these programs are producing.”

    So you would not take one year missing the NCAA for a title? I sure would.
    I can take peaks and valleys. What I cannot take is being stuck at a level. The last four years we have been stuck with little improvement.
    I still am not convinced Herb is a championship level coach.

  12. BJD95 02/02/2006 at 11:09 AM #

    Great numbers here. I would easily trade down years that are “more down” in exchange for higher peaks. Consistently pretty good doesn’t satisfy me. And unlike football, college basketball is a highly dynamic environment, where I don’t think “gradually progressing to the top” is a likely avenue to titles.

    Herb Sendek is not a bad tournament coach nor a great one. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, he’s been “pretty good.” But you don’t earn the mantle of “tournament coach” (which, to me, gets you much more breathing room wrt regular season performance, since said coach has demonstrated it doesn’t predict his postseason success rate) without conference titles, and certainly not with ZERO Final Fours, ZERO Elite Eights, and ONE Sweet Sixteen.

    That said, I do think that Herb Sendek is developing and growing as a head coach and COULD develop beyond what he’s shown in his first 9 years. But saying he COULD do so is not the same as saying that he HAS or he WILL.

  13. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 11:17 AM #

    As usual….I am in agreement with BJD’s comments.

    “Agree on the macro issue, disagree on the 16 year view. I dont see what relevance Les’ 6 years have, except that I didnt expect Herb to win 12 ACC games in any of hist first 2-3 seasons. I do expect 12 wins this season.”

    I COMPLETELY understand this…and I DO discount the Les years more than I would a normal season because of the bullshit he dealt with in his first couple of years.

    BUT…STRICTLY SPEAKING from a FAN’S VIEW — these years DID HAPPEN. Just like Herb Sendek’s first five years. I joined the Wolfpack Club. I bough seasons tickets every year. I committed signifcant hours and days of my life to supporting these teams.

    So, from a fan’s perspective….they still represent significant time in the abyss. I know that there are “reasons” for failure. At NC State, there always are!! But, that cannot eliminate the impact of these years on a human being’s psyche and longing.

  14. Trout 02/02/2006 at 11:22 AM #

    ^ Of course they happened. However, EVERY single person involved with those 6 years is GONE from NC State.

    I totally agree with looking at Herb’s complete tenure, almost 10 seasons now. I dont agree with lumping what Les did because it is not relevant to me. I no longer compare Herb to Les, I compare to him to V and other coaches in the league. It is Herb’s program from top to bottom. The teams that won 12 or more ACC games when Les was here is not relevant to me, when we are discussing the current and future outlook of our men’s basketball program.

  15. class of '74 02/02/2006 at 11:23 AM #

    Assuming a elite eight is absolute folly in light of games like: Iowa, UNC and Seton Hall. Actually assuming anything beyond a NCAAT appearance is foolish
    given our erratic play in a one and done scenario.

    This is a decent team not a great team. For those who proclaim this to be a great NCSU team chances are your perspective is limited to post 1990!

  16. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 11:29 AM #

    Of course they happened. However, EVERY single person involved with those 6 years is GONE from NC State.

    Todd Turner & Larry Monteith hired Herb Sendek.

    Les Robinson submitted Lee Fowler’s name and supported him for AD.

    Turner, Monteith, and Robinson may be physically gone…but, their hires and philosophies obviously still remain.

    Regardless…that is a huge tangent that I want to avoid. Focusing just on current regime leads us to the exact same conclusion — it is TIME for something BIG to happen for our basketball program. Period.

  17. Trout 02/02/2006 at 11:35 AM #

    “it is TIME for something BIG to happen for our basketball program. Period.”

    I dont know of anyone that would argue that point.

  18. class of '74 02/02/2006 at 11:45 AM #

    ^You want to bet? What about the HSSS crowd?

  19. Jim 02/02/2006 at 11:45 AM #

    [quote]

    For those who proclaim this to be a great NCSU team chances are your perspective is limited to post 1990!

    [/quote]

    Could be. I’m in this boat to be honest. Arrived in Raleigh in the fall of 1987 from Virginia, having just a basic working knowledge of NC State basketball history. V didn’t exactly set the world on fire while I was there. Can someone comment on that? The best we did was tie (IIRC) for the ACC “regular season championship,” only to lose in the first round of the ACCT to one of the worst ACC teams of all time, coached by a guy who literally had a heart attack after they beat us. I’ll let you cats parse this and V’s other embarrassing post-1987 postseason collapses as you would Herb’s (NCAA v. Murray State, never made an ACCT tourney final w/ Corch and Monroe). But I digress. Les was horrible, and Herb is just now getting it going. Am I not allowed to be happy that we are finally a decent team consistently?

    I can get frustrated with some of you guys who act supierior to and/or ridicule others who don’t share your exact expectations. You seem to be offended by people who (naively, perhaps) are happy and excited to by 6-2 and in 2nd in the ACC at the turn. We aren’t the 74 team and we aren’t looking like a final 8 team so therefore I am an idiot if I think we are having a good season?

  20. Jeff 02/02/2006 at 12:06 PM #

    I can get frustrated with some of you guys who act supierior to and/or ridicule others who don’t share your exact expectations. You seem to be offended by people who (naively, perhaps) are happy and excited to by 6-2 and in 2nd in the ACC at the turn. We aren’t the 74 team and we aren’t looking like a final 8 team so therefore I am an idiot if I think we are having a good season

    Absolutely NOT!

    We are having a good season. I think that we will continue to have a good season.

    I think where things get difficult is when everyone is looking at ‘conversations’ from different baselines — some conversations are about just this season. Some are about longer time frames. Things get parsed into so many different subsets that is impossible to follow.

  21. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 12:07 PM #

    We aren’t the 74 team and we aren’t looking like a final 8 team so therefore I am an idiot if I think we are having a good season?

    Virignia fans think that they are having a good season. Evaluations like that are always based on expectations. You are obviously welcome to your opinions…but to evaluate V only on his last three or four seasons would probably make you an idiot 😉

    In 1987, V beat UNC in the ACCT finals…giving UNC their first ACC loss that season. In 1989, V won the regular season title out right (and lost to UMD in the first round of the ACCT). So in just those two years alone, V accomplished things that Herb has yet to achieve in nearly a decade in Raleigh.

    Is State having a good year…..obviously yes. Is State playing like a team that can accomplish something to match the best teams of Sloan and V…..no. If you are happy with that….fine. Just don’t be suprised if others are not.

  22. VaWolf82 02/02/2006 at 12:09 PM #

    Forgot to add

    Accomplishments are more important than style points. State can still accomplish great things this year.

  23. class of '74 02/02/2006 at 12:21 PM #

    Note to Jim: I said this is a decent team not a poor team or bad team. I just get blown away how some think we are some kind of juggernaut this year and we aren’t. We aren’t in the context of State’s b-ball history nor are we in context to this season’s top tier teams. That’s all.

  24. Krpatel 02/02/2006 at 12:47 PM #

    I agree with Jeff. Let’s enjoy the success that NC State can provide us in our lives, be it the past or the present.
    GO PACK!

  25. Jim 02/02/2006 at 1:21 PM #

    One can be happy and enjoying a 6-2 season and not be satisfied with that. Obviously I want more and expect more. I think my main disagreement is I give Herb a pass for his first few years and many of you cats don’t. The program was so fubar under Les that I don’t think any coach who followed that should be accountable early. IIRC our center Herb’s first year was Danny Strong, by default, because we had nobody remotely resembling a center in the program. Way to go Les! And yes I realize that that season did happen. Don’t get me started on the talent Herb should have inherited (Sasser, Smith, Allen, etc . . .) if Les had had any clue whatsoever.

    I’ve seen gradual program improvement over the past 4 1/2 years. Too slow, yes, but it has continued upward IMO. I was as ready as anyone to can Herb the year before Hodge got here. But we didn’t. Since then it has gotten better and we appear to be headed to more improvement this year. Too slow arguably, yes. I guess my main point is that I sometimes feel a “tone” on here implying that you have to be a loser to give Herb any credit at all.

    Furthermore, if this season turns out to be the most “successful” in my fandom history (dating to 1987-1988), then that is true of many, many people, and that is not our fault. This is the pinnacle to us so far. How are we supposed to act?

    I’m far more displeased with our ridiculous strutting bantam rooster of a football coach (for whom we are nearing the $110 million mark in building upgrades) than I am with Herb. But I digress.

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