What to Watch For This Weekend

First off, obviously, is NC State hosting Georgia Tech at noon on Saturday. Records don’t mean everything in this one, as the Bees are perhaps the worst 2-0 ACC team in recent history. Plus, Sendek has owned Paul Hewitt (especially at home), even during some otherwise turbulent times. Expect this one to get ugly early, and stay that way. Pack wins in a walk. Prediction: NC State 82, Georgia Tech 60.

But let us turn our sights to what, for my money, is typically the best sports viewing weekend of the year – the Divisional Semifinal Round of the NFL playoffs. Leading off is the underrated, underreported Seattle Seahawks. Expect them to challenge the Redskin defense much more than the Bucs, having both the best running AND passing game of any NFC contender. It’s hard to defend against that kind of varied attack, and you can expect far fewer mistakes from Matt Hasselback than Chris Simms. And the Seattle crowd will actually provide a hostile environment, unlike the Pirate Ship in Tampa. Mark Brunell was a poor QB before he got hurt, and an awful one now. Expect a decent (if unspectacular) Seattle D to focus their efforts on stopping Clinton Portis, to some success. Prediction: Seattle 31, Washington 13.

The nightcap offers the best game of the weekend – if only there were snow in the forecast. Sadly, the game is being played 2 days too early for that. Still, Mile High will be rocking, although my beloved Broncos can’t be looking forward to getting their asses handed to them yet again by Indy. Mike Shanahan needs to get the playoff monkey (no wins since Elway) off his back, and he’ll have to stop a QB who has never lost in a playoff start. Maybe I’m nuts, but I think Denver has the horses and emotional surge to pull it off. Prediction: Denver 27, New England 23.

Sunday leads off with a potential blowout – Indy handled the Steelers quite nicely in a regular season MNF matchup. But it was Big Ben’s first game back from injury, and his timing was clearly off. It could be the Colts shaking off some rust this time around, having not played a meaningful game in over a month. It’s also an open question how much the tragic Dungy family situation has sapped emotional energy from both coach and players. For those reasons, I don’t see a throttling here, but still a comfortable win and cover. Prediction: Indy 30, Pittsburgh 17.

Now, the matchup with the most local (and arguably most national) interest – Panthers at Bears. I have learned to love the Panthers almost as much as the Broncos, and when the “good” Panthers team shows up, they can beat pretty much anybody. And they have momentum on their side, having fully exposed the unwarranted Eli Manning hype and playing perhaps the perfect John Fox game – extreme ball control, defense, and no mistakes. But can the inconcsistent Panthers play a third straight inspired game? Can DeShaun Foster fight off his toe injury and also pull of the trifecta? Unfortunately, I don’t like the matchup (the Bears have the personnel and scheme to thwart the Carolina offense) or the venue (as hostile as they come). I like this one to come down to the wire, but sadly be decided on a late Robbie Gould FG. But I do have hope, which I wouldn’t have said 3 weeks ago. Prediction: Chicago 16, Carolina 13.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

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21 Responses to What to Watch For This Weekend

  1. cfpack03 01/13/2006 at 1:02 PM #

    These predictions are way too logical. Where are the upsets? I’m thinking NE blows out Denver by at least 14, and, the Pitt/Indy game is a lot closer than expected. If the panthers score 2 TDs, they win.

  2. class of '74 01/13/2006 at 2:54 PM #

    I agree with you except on one thing. NCSU 72 vs. GT 68.

  3. BJD95 01/13/2006 at 3:37 PM #

    Fun fact: Mike Shanahan is 3-1 against Bill Belicheck since the Pats’ first Super Bowl in 2001.

    The Bears and Broncos are home favorites, but based on what I hear from sports radio, going with them is a bit contrarian.

  4. Jeff 01/13/2006 at 3:57 PM #

    State has been dominating the middling teams in the ACC that we have played thus far – Miami & BC. No reason to expect anything less against the one good program that Sendek has had the most success against — Georgia Tech.

    We’re 9-0 vs GT in Raleigh under Herb. No way that they should be able to keep this year’s game close.

  5. Doug 01/13/2006 at 10:01 PM #

    I hope the Pack team has the same attitude about the State-GT game this weekend. State is clearly the better team, but Tech is capable and is playing with a lot confidence right now. Go Jackets!

  6. JR 01/14/2006 at 1:01 AM #

    You don’t see a State fan predicting a Wolfpack blowout too often. I like us to win at home, but we pull away at the end by about 10. We will start sluggish, probably looking to the Duke game Wed.. GT is young , and we should win but that’s what was shoved down my throat last weekend, and look what happened.

  7. Fish 01/14/2006 at 9:08 AM #

    GT 71 NCSU 58

  8. Sammy Kent 01/14/2006 at 9:49 AM #

    It’s a home game. State has the better team. Herb owns Hewitt. Herb will not let our guys look past Tech to Dook. We will not lose this game even if we play like crap. This is most definitely a game we should win by 20+.

    There are two ways to do it. Play the Princeton/Herb (or Prince Herb) style and shoot 50% from the arc (a la Miami), or just run them off the court with a multi-faceted attack (a la GW) and shoot 50% all FGA. I believe the second strategy is more effective, and certainly more dependable from game to game. (It also requires you to go more than seven deep, which I think is a good thing, too.) I’d whole lot rather see that running, pushing, inside-first-outside-second offense that shoots threes 1/3 of the time instead of nearly 1/2. IMHO, no matter which team is running it, the PO lets the weaker team stay close. So, FWIW, here’s my take, and I’m assuming that State plays its normal effective defense no matter what the offense looks like:

    If we go Prince Herb style and shoot 50% from the arc: State 72, Tech 50.
    If we go Prince Herb style and shoot 40% from the arc: State 64, Tech 58, and a potential nailbiter.
    If we go Prince Herb and shoot 30% from the arc: State 52, Tech 51 in a game Herb would normally lose at the end. Hewitt may be the only coach Herb can win an ACC nailbiter against. Herb owns him, and that’s why I just don’t see us losing this game no matter how bad we may play.

    If we play GW-game style and shoot 50% overall for the game: State 85 Tech 54.
    If we play GW-game style and shoot 40% overall for the game: State 73 Tech 62.
    If we play GW-game style and shoot 30% overall for the game: State 67 Tech 65.

  9. Sammy Kent 01/14/2006 at 1:08 PM #

    Halftime. Tech 41-40. Tech is shooting 70%. With Ced on the bench, Herb has totally abandoned an inside game. Brackman is out at the arc jacking threes, and Evtimov is out at the arc turning the ball over. Bennerman is posting up. Fast tempo, but again, not translating into any transition baskets. OVER HALF OUR TOTAL SHOTS ATTEMPTED ARE THREES!!!! 16 of 28, and we’ve only made seven of them. That’s crazy. Only 1/4 of our points are in the paint, and some of them are from dribble drives or inbounds plays with the guards scoring, not from feeding the ball in as part of the offensive set. In addition to just shooting well, Tech is punching the ball inside.

    THE BIG MEN NEED TO GET DOWN LOW AND THE GUARDS NEED TO HANDLE THE BALL. THIS IS BASKETBALL 101, PEOPLE!!!

  10. TVP 01/14/2006 at 1:21 PM #

    “16 of our 28, and we’ve only made 7 of them”

    Which would be…44%

    Let me get this straight – you are complaining about 44% three point shooting? I’ve seen it all now.

    Our problems have been 1) getting outhustled and outquicked on D and 2) Bullshit fouls on Ced. I mean when Gminski is saying there is no foul…you know there is no foul.

  11. Sammy Kent 01/14/2006 at 2:16 PM #

    A little better balance in the second half, but Tech really made this one close with some great shooting today. I seriously didn’t think they could shoot that well against our defense. TVP, no I wasn’t complaining about 44% three point shooting. That “only” was a mistake, left over from trying to type too many thoughts at once (see next sentence–begins with “only”) and failing to delete it. It does look like it, though. My bad. Actually kind of embarrassing. 44% is good shooting for threes. The problem is, if you’re going to shoot that many every game, you better shoot 44% every game. I just think it’s bad to depend on them so heavily especially when we have legitimate inside threats.

    a nice win for the Pack, and with Miami beating the Holes, IT’S A GREAT DAY FOR NC STATE!!!

  12. TVP 01/14/2006 at 2:20 PM #

    Gotcha.

    For the most part, both teams just executed very well on offense. Made for an exciting and nerve-wracking game.

    I’ve got to give the young guys on GT a lot of credit – they never let us get comfortable with any lead. I’d love to have Morrow, Dickey, Clinch, and especially Smith.

    Another great, balanced effort tonight. Bethel in particular was very good – 14 points, 6 assists, 2 turnovers. Ced is a beast a usual.

    I think Herb made the key move of the game when he left Ced in after he picked up the third foul. It was risky, but necessary. We were abused inside when he was out.

    Refs sucked, but whatever.

  13. Mr. O 01/16/2006 at 9:35 AM #

    Sammy Kent: Did you know that prior to the GT game, we were shooting a higher percentage from the 3 point line than from inside the arc?

    We were shooting 54% on threes. 44% from the 3 point line equates to 66% from inside the arc.

  14. Sammy Kent 01/17/2006 at 8:08 AM #

    Mr. O, the old adage that 33% from the arc is equivalent to 50% inside the arc is not exactly true. You do score the same number of points, however you have half again as many missed shots…missed shots that result in more possessions/points for the opponent, and since the rebounds are usually longer, they are more likely to be the kind that can be turned into fast break baskets. So you’re not only giving up more possessions, you are also giving up more easy baskets if you shoot only 33% on threes. That is why 33% three point shooting is not as effective in toto as 50% inside the line, and why you really do have to shoot 40-45% from the arc if you’re going to take three pointers half the time.

  15. VaWolf82 01/17/2006 at 8:41 AM #

    however you have half again as many missed shots…missed shots that result in more possessions/points for the opponent, and since the rebounds are usually longer, they are more likely to be the kind that can be turned into fast break baskets.

    Few points of contention:
    1) I seem to remember a GT game (two years ago?) where the long rebounds consistently went back to State. Even a round ball sometimes bounces funny.
    2) State is not a great rebounding team and that GT game may have been an exception. However, part of the reason for the poor offensive rebounding comes from State’s guards getting back to cut-off the transition baskets. I don’t think that State really gives up many transition baskets.
    3) The deliberate nature of State’s half-court offense limits the number of possessions in the first place. A three point shot taken and missed 25 seconds into the possession is not giving the opponent “extra” possessions.

    I’m not convinced that 33% percentage on three-point shots is not high enough.

  16. Sammy Kent 01/17/2006 at 12:40 PM #

    “1) I seem to remember a GT game (two years ago?) where the long rebounds consistently went back to State. Even a round ball sometimes bounces funny.”

    Statistically rebounds on three point shots are virtually the same as other shots. About 30% of all live-ball rebounds and about 15% of FT rebounds, go to the offense. Of course, each game is unique. Personnel helps too. If you’ve got a Kurt Rambis or Dennis Rodman on your team, well,……

    “2)…part of the reason for the poor offensive rebounding comes from State’s guards getting back to cut-off the transition baskets. I don’t think that State really gives up many transition baskets.”

    Our poor offensive rebounding comes from State’s front line players being out of position or not blocking out, not our guards. If anything we probably do get a few more offensive rebounds off missed threes than most teams do precisely because our would-be frontline is out of position to get shorter rebounds. Fortunately this season, that in-the-paint-rebounding has also improved somewhat with Cedric Simmons on the floor actually playing the center position. I agree that we seem to not usually give up a lot in transition, probably because of our guards getting back as you say, but OTOH, nobody is in there fighting for rebounds more than Cam Bennerman. Just another reason I love that kid playing ball for NC State.

    “3) The deliberate nature of State’s half-court offense limits the number of possessions in the first place.”

    While certainly true in the past, this season we have seen a very dramatic improvement in the tempo of the games…the Iowa game being the most obvious exception to this, but even the Carolina game was played at a quicker pace than we’ve come to expect from Herb’s teams through the years. I agree it is still fairly deliberate, but in a welcome change, it usually has been more aggressive and attack oriented. We haven’t been just running the clock down with mindless passing this season. I’d be willing to venture that both ours and our opponents’ possessions per game have increased substantially this year.

    Actually, I think the quicker your offense and the faster the game tempo (hence the more possessions for each team), your 3-point percentage can actually go DOWN closer to the 33% line and be as effective. Conversely, when you take fewer shots per game, it is even more imperative that you make the ones you do take. In an Iowa type game, we would need to shoot about 50% from three land to be as effective overall as shooting say 42% from the arc in a game played at the Miami or GaTech type tempo. (Of course, I’m speaking in general. There are definite rules of thumb from statistics and experience….but each game is unique. Against Tech 42% from the arc might NOT have been good enough, because the Jackets added their own statistical anamoly, namely shooting the frickin’ lights out -about 63%- for 35 minutes.)

    “A three point shot taken and missed 25 seconds into the possession is not giving the opponent “extraâ€? possessions”

    Any shot missed and not rebounded is a possession for the opponent no matter when it is. It’s really a misnomer to call them “extra possessions” because basketball is a game of alternating possessions. It IS, however, fair to say they are additional opportunities for my opponent to score when I didn’t.

    If my team today shoots sixty times (and I pick sixty because the arithmetic makes nice round whole numbers), all of them two pointers, and makes half of them, we’ve scored sixty points, and missed thirty shots. And, I’d probably win. Teams that shoot 50% overall generally do. If my team tomorrow shoots sixty times, all of them threes, and we make 1/3 of them, we’ve again scored sixty points, but we’ve missed forty shots. That’s just pretty basic. Yes, you can rebound better, get back sooner, play better D, yada yada, but the point is you’re still having to do more things better to make up for your missed shots and wasted possessions…and might still lose. Or you can save yourself all that extra other work by shooting 40%, scoring 72 points, and giving your opponent 36 possible rebounds. At this point, you’re about at dynamic equilibrium with 50% shooting overall FGA. You’d probably win. Even better, shoot 45%, thus scoring 81 points, and giving your opponent only 33 possible rebounds. You’d almost certainly win. But it’s harder to do night in and night out, which is why I prefer to NOT depend on the three ball so exclusively.

    And BTW, I am somewhat of a convert to this philosophy. I used to love to see threes jacked all the time when we had guys like Terry Gannon and Rodney Monroe. But when we had them, we also had guys like Cozell McQueen, Lorenzo Charles, Chris Washburn, Charles Shackleford, and Tom Guggliotta to balance the attack and sweep up the misses. In Herb’s first year after Thornton went down the three was really all we had left. But you just can’t live and die with by three. Because eventually you will certainly die.

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